Goldman Sachs: Dollar’s in question + Bank of China: Chinese Banks shall drop SWIFT

[nahtanbob]

What is the point of Chinese currency if I cannot use it to buy things in China ?

 

[Feng Leng]

What is the point of Chinese currency if I cannot use it to buy things in China ?

Of course you can buy things in China with RMB.

 

[-blitzkrieg-]

Eventually, only US stooges like Japan, India and UK will use US dollar as a reserve. Other countries will move away.

UK means Australia, Canada, South Africa, New Zealand and a list of other smaller slave nations that dont really have any say.. But Japan is the biggest buyer along China so it really makes a difference.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/246420/major-foreign-holders-of-us-treasury-debt/
lol@ Cayman islands

 

[Feng Leng]

UK means Australia, Canada, South Africa, New Zealand and a list of other smaller slave nations that dont really have any say.. But Japan is the biggest buyer along China so it really makes a difference.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/246420/major-foreign-holders-of-us-treasury-debt/
lol@ Cayman islands

There is a good reason why the world was split into two economic blocs during the Cold War. It is because the two sides were ideologically incompatible. Leaving a degree of separation was beneficial to everybody.

Now with globalization, this separation has been destroyed. So when ideological clashes happen there is closer contact between the two hostile sides. What the world needs to do now is move back to two separate economic blocs. The US dollar and stooges on one side. The rest of the world on the other side.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

What is the point of Chinese currency if I cannot use it to buy things in China ?

you not only can buy things in China with RMB, it is the sole legal currency. Unlike places like India or Vietnam where people keep dollars in mattresses, in China people barely even have paper money anymore. Everything is digital RMB.

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/e...irst-cashless-society-china-daily-contributor

 

[The Accountant]

China would gladly see its dollar reserves vaporize overnight if that means the dollar's reserve status has ended with a batch of currencies including RMB taking its place.

Its not just about china and there is no guarantee that end of dollar means rise in RMB. This is one of many possible outcome.

Furthermore, if reserves of all country deplete over night then it almost means they r destroyed and u will loose your customers.

In short its a real complicated stuff with lost of possible outcomes. So better be a slow and steady change rather than an overnoght catastrophe. However this is coming. USA economy is no more sustainable with such deficits

 

[PakFactor]

Its not just about china and there is no guarantee that end of dollar means rise in RMB. This is one of many possible outcome.

Furthermore, if reserves of all country deplete over night then it almost means they r destroyed and u will loose your customers.

In short its a real complicated stuff with lost of possible outcomes. So better be a slow and steady change rather than an overnoght catastrophe. However this is coming. USA economy is no more sustainable with such deficits

Dollar will erode over time, a better alternative has to be established for long term growth of the global economy and something that is sanction proof. We can’t have various nations being black mailed by bigger economies as this is against the idea US exposes but turns it’s back on a whim.

 

[Jungibaaz]

Dollar hegemony is still solid for the time being, but over time it will erode and Yuan will take some of its share. I don’t see it overtaking the dollar at all for the foreseeable future. One thing is for sure though, every time the US uses the dollar as a weapon, for sanctions and trade wars, it’s another chip at dollar hegemony. The more you use your power the more other powers force themselves to adapt and seek alternatives.

 

[Feng Leng]

Bye Bye Benjamin! Russia & China speed up de-dollarization process: most trade no longer conducted in greenbacks

After years of talking about abandoning the US dollar, Russia and China are doing it for real. In the first quarter of 2020, the share of the dollar in trade between the countries fell below 50 percent for the first time.

To give an indication of the scale of the adjustment, just four years ago the greenback accounted for over 90 percent of their currency settlements.


The end of the dollar is coming very, very quickly. It could be as early as some time next year. Gold is already at an all time high. If gold keeps hitting record highs for six months in a row, the dollar is done.

 

[valkyr_96]

This depands on a lot of factors. Changing status quo is a painful thing. Even China do not want a sudden collapse in dollar due to trillions of treasury bills it owns and dollar reserves they have. Similar is the situation with outer power countries such as EU, Australia, Japan, Russia and even India.

Any threat to dollar and their reserves will evaporate. In short its a marathon and not a short race. The whole objective of BRI and CPEC is to have direct links with the trading nations. In the initial phase the links are being created by land and sea network in the next phase (which has already initiated) the links will be created in financial systems and banks.

Another way which could be more painful is a big war against USA or any big players like EU leaving US can result in a heavy and quick blow.

But remember in the process most of the common people will be net looser. Our dollar savings will evaporate.

The more important thing is if the Chinese want people to hold their money or not? This means that the Chinese can't devalue their currency at their will which is one of their means of being competitive in the market. Then there is a local debt pile-up as well. At the moment they and a few countries are decoupling transactions -this will only help the dollar find its "fair" value.

 

[LeGenD]

Global reserve currencies:

IMF data: https://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14B-4AA8-9F6D-5A09EC4E62A4

Get the memo?

I do not see Chinese RENMINBI overperforming EURO anytime soon, let alone USD.

All this talk about collapse of USD does not make sense unless Americans want it to but WHY would they?

USD is going very strong and its strength has defied all speculation from time-to-time.

SO WHAT IS HAPPENING?

USA and China are not on good terms for now. American manufacturing base is under pressure to REVISIT its GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN and move manufacturing out from China although some will retain manufacturing in China because this country in itself is a huge market which shall not be missed. However, USA by and large will decouple its economy from that of China to the extent possible.

The aforementioned moves will have a significant impact on China and it is looking forward to diversify its economic model in which manufacturing base will have a reduced share and contribution. China is also looking forward to offset American decoupling strategy through BRI which will enable China to expand trading via Chinese RENMINBI but depend upon what terms Chinese offer for trading in this capacity.

Remember this: a very high-value Chinese RENMINBI will erode Chinese manufacturing competitiveness, therefore, a strong USD works in the favor of China.

Chinese strategy should be to push for a new bilateral deal with USA. Wait for the elections to pass and then do the needful.

----

My apologies to proponents of USD collapse - you will be sorely disappointed.

USD collapse will bring about a GLOBAL DEPRESSION the likes of this world has never seen before, and will be sure shot way for starting World War III and many will loose.

There was GREAT DEPRESSION before World War II. Be careful what you wish for.

 

[antonius123]

Global reserve currencies:

IMF data: https://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14B-4AA8-9F6D-5A09EC4E62A4

Get the memo?

I do not see Chinese RENMINBI overperforming EURO anytime soon, let alone USD.

All this talk about collapse of USD does not make sense unless Americans want it to but WHY would they?

USD is going very strong and its strength has defied all speculation from time-to-time.

SO WHAT IS HAPPENING?

USA and China are not on good terms for now. American manufacturing base is under pressure to REVISIT its GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN and move manufacturing out from China although some will retain manufacturing in China because this country in itself is a huge market which shall not be missed. However, USA by and large will decouple its economy from that of China to the extent possible.

The aforementioned moves will have a significant impact on China and it is looking forward to diversify its economic model in which manufacturing base will have a reduced share and contribution. China is also looking forward to offset American decoupling strategy through BRI which will enable China to expand trading via Chinese RENMINBI but depend upon what terms Chinese offer for trading in this capacity.

Remember this: a very high-value Chinese RENMINBI will erode Chinese manufacturing competitiveness, therefore, a strong USD works in the favor of China.

Chinese strategy should be to push for a new bilateral deal with USA. Wait for the elections to pass and then do the needful.

----

My apologies to proponents of USD collapse - you will be sorely disappointed.

USD collapse will bring about a GLOBAL DEPRESSION the likes of this world has never seen before, and will be sure shot way for starting World War III and many will loose.

There was GREAT DEPRESSION before World War II. Be careful what you wish for.

When China insist on using RMB for trading with her, her trading partners will be attracted to put a lot amount of RMB in their reserves. And China is the largest trading nation in the world today.

 

[Leishangthem]

Global reserve currencies:

IMF data: https://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14B-4AA8-9F6D-5A09EC4E62A4

Get the memo?

I do not see Chinese RENMINBI overperforming EURO anytime soon, let alone USD.

All this talk about collapse of USD does not make sense unless Americans want it to but WHY would they?

USD is going very strong and its strength has defied all speculation from time-to-time.

SO WHAT IS HAPPENING?

USA and China are not on good terms for now. American manufacturing base is under pressure to REVISIT its GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN and move manufacturing out from China although some will retain manufacturing in China because this country in itself is a huge market which shall not be missed. However, USA by and large will decouple its economy from that of China to the extent possible.

The aforementioned moves will have a significant impact on China and it is looking forward to diversify its economic model in which manufacturing base will have a reduced share and contribution. China is also looking forward to offset American decoupling strategy through BRI which will enable China to expand trading via Chinese RENMINBI but depend upon what terms Chinese offer for trading in this capacity.

Remember this: a very high-value Chinese RENMINBI will erode Chinese manufacturing competitiveness, therefore, a strong USD works in the favor of China.

Chinese strategy should be to push for a new bilateral deal with USA. Wait for the elections to pass and then do the needful.

----

My apologies to proponents of USD collapse - you will be sorely disappointed.

USD collapse will bring about a GLOBAL DEPRESSION the likes of this world has never seen before, and will be sure shot way for starting World War III and many will loose.

There was GREAT DEPRESSION before World War II. Be careful what you wish for.

It was similar when the pound was the world reserve,but world moved on pretty quick,no free sovereign country would agree to operate under the Swift-dollar hegemony ,thus being on the mercy of the US for their trade and economy.
10 years ago ,there was no option,USA was too dominant,now things changed. It wouldn't take an armageddon for dollar to fall from its throne.Digital Yuan itself would be revolutionary. RmB would climb up as soon as it's adopted for trade with china.
The world economy moves pretty fast and nobody cares about past,there's more opportunities in fututure,and every one will be after that.

 

[Feng Leng]

Global reserve currencies:

IMF data: https://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14B-4AA8-9F6D-5A09EC4E62A4

Get the memo?

I do not see Chinese RENMINBI overperforming EURO anytime soon, let alone USD.

All this talk about collapse of USD does not make sense unless Americans want it to but WHY would they?

USD is going very strong and its strength has defied all speculation from time-to-time.

SO WHAT IS HAPPENING?

USA and China are not on good terms for now. American manufacturing base is under pressure to REVISIT its GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN and move manufacturing out from China although some will retain manufacturing in China because this country in itself is a huge market which shall not be missed. However, USA by and large will decouple its economy from that of China to the extent possible.

The aforementioned moves will have a significant impact on China and it is looking forward to diversify its economic model in which manufacturing base will have a reduced share and contribution. China is also looking forward to offset American decoupling strategy through BRI which will enable China to expand trading via Chinese RENMINBI but depend upon what terms Chinese offer for trading in this capacity.

Remember this: a very high-value Chinese RENMINBI will erode Chinese manufacturing competitiveness, therefore, a strong USD works in the favor of China.

Chinese strategy should be to push for a new bilateral deal with USA. Wait for the elections to pass and then do the needful.

----

My apologies to proponents of USD collapse - you will be sorely disappointed.

USD collapse will bring about a GLOBAL DEPRESSION the likes of this world has never seen before, and will be sure shot way for starting World War III and many will loose.

There was GREAT DEPRESSION before World War II. Be careful what you wish for.

Much of those US dollars reserves are held by China. If China doesn't want to hold US dollar reserves, the graphic changes overnight.

 

[LeGenD]

Much of those US dollars reserves are held by China. If China doesn't want to hold US dollar reserves, the graphic changes overnight.

Friend,

Had a look: https://www.statista.com/statistics/246420/major-foreign-holders-of-us-treasury-debt/

China cannot just let go of that investment in American Treasury (there are significant implications for Chinese economy - flows of USD within China must be regulated), and this is also a leverage which Chinese government will use when renegotiating a bilateral deal with USA in the near future.

Economics is not a matter of emotion but planning and patience.

Deep down even Donald Trump know that his BIG TALK is BLUSTER.

China will pull one string, and same Trump will be praising China very soon. But elections are drawing very close - he might have sought permission from Xi to say a few things.