Ammyy
BANNED
- Joined
- Jun 8, 2010
- Messages
- 7,393
- Reaction score
- -12
- Country
- Location
@Nihonjin1051 would Japan be interested in this ASEAN+ military alliance idea? ASEAN+ will potentially include ASEAN (10) + Japan + Korean peninsula + Bangladesh + Sri Lanka
The idea is that China is not interested to go for any European Union type idea with any of these nations above except Japan and Korean peninsula. But for the medium term, Japan and Korean peninsula would balance a rising China with an alliance with US/West/NATO. But US/West/NATO may not be interested to integrate non-western faraway Asian countries in their group because of ethnic and cultural difference, even though they are highly developed countries and societies.
So Japan and Korean peninsula are sought after by the Chinese for eventual assimilation in the long term, but that is exactly what Japan and Korean peninsula want to avoid. So in addition to the balancing weight US/West/NATO provide, ASEAN+ will provide an additional opportunity and balancing weight for both Japan and South Korea, if they can concentrate on this area and make it into a developed and integrated region. This does not mean that China will be excluded in the development/integration process at all, China will be investing and become a partner in this development/integration process as well, as it is China's backyard.
In the very long term after 15-20 years, when China reaches parity with the US, the Chinese will become much more active and have interventionist role in Asian and global affairs. But before we reach that stage, there is an opportunity for these countries to build mutual military alliance so that the team of nations within this security structure provides them with a large enough population and economy that can become a pole of its own in the future multi-polar world. This military alliance will provide each of its team members with sufficient weight when dealing much larger regional nations, such as China or India.
If you look at the beginning of the thread, this was the idea I started out with, but at later stages I kind of moved away from this idea. But with more and more information about regional countries as they become available with every passing day, it seems that this idea may be viable after all in the long term, specially after the latest moves made by Japan about changing its pacifist constitution.
Initially ASEAN+ may lean towards USA/West/NATO, but the challenge will be to develop and integrate this region, so that it can stand on its own feet and become independent of undue outside influence. This will depend on China, how much interest they take in helping this region to integrate and develop and thus help ASEAN+ become a more of an independent pole in future multi-polar world. But with or without Chinese help, the region may be able to unite and integrate for their own mutual interest.
Now how will this geopolitical alignment above affect the Muslim world. I think it will have tremendous effect. ASEAN+ can help the integration of several other Muslim regions in Asia and beyond. A South West Asian team is possible with 4 nations - Turkey, Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan. This team may eventually integrate further with Eurasian Economic Union led by Russia. In every region of the globe, small nations I believe are vulnerable to too much outside influence from larger nations who become global power and establish their regional and global hegemony. I describe these phenomenon here:
kalu_miah's new world order, a road map for the future
Specifically for Western Eurasia, I discuss the geopolitics of this region here:
Geopolitics of Eurasia+ region
As for Arab region of the world and Africa my ideas are described here:
Geopolitics of GCC+ region
Geopolitics of African Union
Japan and South Korea both are highly industrialized countries, where Japan has a much longer and a more mature history as an advanced industrial nation. What both lack is population and resources. By becoming team members with ASEAN+, it will mean that both will be in a privileged position to play roles in integration of Eurasia+ (southern and northern parts), GCC+, Arab League and African union. Already Japan and South Korea both have demonstrated their open mind about taking in Muslim immigrants as migrant workers in their nation and making them their citizens many of whom have married among local population. Today tens of thousands of such Muslim families live in both of these countries as productive citizens and enjoy all freedoms and rights. With this new team building effort in above future regional unions or military alliances, if both nations show themselves as trusted development partner as team managers, then they will win the trust of vast populations in these regions.
Essentially the idea is not to accept the future of the world as a bipolar or tripolar international order, rather work towards a truely viable multi-polar world, where there are multiple poles:
- West
- China
- India
- ASEAN+
- Eurasia+
- African Union or parts of it (Arab League, Muslim Subsaharan Africa, rest of Southern Africa)
- Latin American Union
@Indos @Battle of Bach Dang River
How and where BD fits in this scenario ???
You are not in ASEAN then why would any one include you in their alliance with no political, military value, nor you are technological advanced nation like Japan.
Even if ASEAN expand their group then you have 0% possibility to join them.
