Game Over Abenomics: "This Week Japan Will Acknowledge It Is In Recession", Goldman Reveals

[tranquilium]

Don't be so obtuse. Abe has yet to even implement the third arrow. I remain optimistic.

Collaboration with China has always been a reality. Irrespective of political foibles.

Do you expect me to take you seriously ?

Now, after reading this, it seems that your grasp of geostrategic reality is an example of an outlier.

The core problem for Japan isn't whatever debt management policy Abe chose to implement. (I don't like his economic policies, but that is actually not the core issue here and let's be honest, there really isn't much else he can do) The core issue is the trade deficit and aging demographic. Both really translate into net decline of economy. Basically, debt is not causing the decline economy, rather it is the decline of economy that cause debt to become a problem.

On the topic of Japanese debt vs US debt, I am of the opinion that Japanese debt problem is worse. This more has to do with the fact that when worst come to worst, US is still a large country with plenty of natural resources to fill its needs. The same can't really be said about Japan.

You certainly overlook the sobatage efforts from the US.(well I know you love the US more than Japan)

The rebalance Asia strategy is a Comprihensive project. Worsing relationship between Asia rivals serve the best interest of the United States and its Asia pivot policy.

Some pupet figures say Ishihara was paid by the US, that's no secret, if you careful watched the development of Senkaku issue in recent years.

It's upon the endurance of both Japan and China to fend off outside stir-up that can rebuild the trust between the two nations.

It is not really a secret. The last few prime ministers from Japan worked on improving relationship with China to strength Japanese economy and none of them managed to stay in office for any significant time. As far as recent decade goes, Koizumi is actually the most success one as far as managing foreign policy goes, being in a stand offish stance with China politically and maintained warm economic ties. Of course, this is way before US' pacific pivot, the same thing simply can't be done today.

 

[Aepsilons]

You certainly overlook the sobatage efforts from the US.(well I know you love the US more than Japan)

The rebalance Asia strategy is a Comprihensive project. Worsing relationship between Asia rivals serve the best interest of the United States and its Asia pivot policy.

Some pupet figures say Ishihara was paid by the US, that's no secret, if you careful watched the development of Senkaku issue in recent years.

It's upon the endurance of both Japan and China to fend off outside stir-up that can rebuild the trust between the two nations.

The 2008 East China Sea Partnership: Application to the 2012 Sino-Japanese Maritime Row​

By: @Nihonjin1051​

Back in June of 2008 there were positive results of Japanese-Chinese Multilayered Intergovernmetalist approach to bridging differences in regards to territory in the East China Sea. After over three years of direct leadership consultation, Japan and China reached a Principled Consensus on the East China Sea. The Consensus consisted of three parts:

1. Cooperation between Japan and China in the East China Sea

2. Understanding Between China and Japan on Joint Development of the East China Sea

3. Understanding on the Participation of Japanese Legal Person in the Development of Chunxiao Oil and Gas Field in Accordance with Chinese Laws.

The Sino-Japanese cooperation; both sides had agreed to cooperation during the transitional period pending delimitation of their overlapping claims on the basis of not prejudicing the legal positions of either side. Both sides had also agreed to select, by mutual agreement, areas for joint development in the block under the principle of reciprocity. Shirakaba – Chunxiao oil and gas field was the area of contention for both sides. What should be known is that the Chinese side had invited Japan in developing the existing oil and gas field in accordance with Chinese Laws and granted reciprocity for Japan.

If we look at the diplomatic history of both China and Japan , in regards to maritime boundary, we see a very positive and collaborative spirit. One has to remember that Japan and China had passed the Provisional Measure Zone, which was established by the China-Japan 1997 Fisheries Agreement, and is bounded by straight lines joining seven points roughly rectangular in shape.

I want to reiterate that the 2008 China-Japan Consensus on the East China Sea Issue is very significant for both nations because it eases the maritime disputes that existed between both Japan and China. And it is conducive to peace and stability in the East China Sea. The recent maritime row between Japan and China is due to the Japan’s Nationalization of the Senkaku Islands and territories that were included in the 2008 China-Japan Consensus of the East China Sea. The 1997 Fisheries Agreement between Japan and China as well as the recent 2008 China-Japan Consensus of the East China Sea were all products of the Multilayered Intergovernmentalist approach, which allowed both Chinese Leadership and Japanese Leadership to find consensual agreement on areas of contention. And it has largely been quite successful, given the paucity of disagreements between Bejing and Tokyo prior to 2012. It is apparent that when both leaderships are affixed on resolving issues, they are readily addressed.

One thing that Japan has to understand is the sensitivity of the Chinese side in regards to any unilateral action on the Japanese side. In fact, prior to the Nationalization of the Senkakus, there were practically no violent protests or official Chinese government response lambasting Japanese policy on said islands. The Chinese leadership was insulted on the Japanese side of nationalizing the islands , despite the fact that Japan already had de-facto control and administration of the area. The recent flyover of Chinese maritime spy planes into the Senkakus, and sporadic intrusion of Chinese Maritime Surveillance Ships are a recent phenomenon , and were a reaction to Tokyo’s unilateral proclamation. So, in this regard, Japanese Leadership needs to understand that the Chinese response is a reactive formation and thus it should be the Japanese side to approach China and bridge these differences.

Reference:
Arima, A. (2013). Importance of international cooperation especially between China and Japan. AIP Conference Proceedings, 1533(1), 5-12. doi:10.1063/1.4806770

Gao, J. (2009). A Note on the 2008 Cooperation Consensus Between China and Japan in the East China Sea. Ocean Development & International Law, 40(3), 291-303. doi:10.1080/00908320903077100

 

[mike2000]

You certainly overlook the sobatage efforts from the US.(well I know you love the US more than Japan)

The rebalance Asia strategy is a Comprihensive project. Worsing relationship between Asia rivals serve the best interest of the United States and its Asia pivot policy.

Some pupet figures say Ishihara was paid by the US, that's no secret, if you careful watched the development of Senkaku issue in recent years.

It's upon the endurance of both Japan and China to fend off outside stir-up that can rebuild the trust between the two nations.

lool Blaming the U.S again for all ills in the world. So let me ask you one question: IS Japan and China kids that the U.S will play such an obvious game of divide and rule and they will keep falling for it everytime?
Stop blaming the U.S for everything, other countries too have their own share to blame themselves. So you want the U.S to forgo its national interests and encourage a rapprochement between Japan and China that ignores the U.S? As i said before, every country first and foremost looks out for their own interests and then the overall follows.

Anyway, even if the U.S is behind the 'sabotage efforts' of the flare up of this territorial dispute between Japan and China, so what? As i said before its geo politics, dont expect it to be clean.

Moreover, it isn't that bad for Japan anyway, Since there is little to nothing China can offer Japan(apart from its huge market) that Japan can have from the U.S. The U.S has been quite a good partner for Japan for all these decades since world war II and has shared alot of military tech with Japan which other countries like China, India, Turkey and other U.S allies can only dream of, plus the U.S has offered its market to Japanese automoblies,electronics and other products for decades, while Japan has been restricting its own industry from the U.S , reason you find little or now U.S product dominating the Japanese marklet aprt from software sector. So the U.S has been quite good to Japan to be honest and im sure Japanese officals/people know this, reason why they are largely favorable for a continued U.S presence in their country and still have a very favourable view of the U.S compared to how they view their Neighbours China, Russia and South Korea.

So talk of U.S influencing Japan to start tensions with China, might be true, but then so what? theres nothing China can do about it then whine/cry.lol Japan doesnt depend on China for anything other than selling their products to your country(where Japanese products still command high respect due to their quality) and thats it.

 

[Aepsilons]

The rebalance Asia strategy is a Comprihensive project. Worsing relationship between Asia rivals serve the best interest of the United States and its Asia pivot policy.

If you study the core issue between Japan and China, the East China Sea Dispute erupted sometime around 2010 when Chinese Media started airing negative news images and anti-Japanese propaganda starting around 2005, 2008, 2010 -- focusing on old war stories. Perhaps you do not remember the massive nation-wide protests Chinese citizens had made towards Japan in 2008, 2009 and 2010.

This occurred during the passing of the 2008 East China Sea Consensus between Japan and China. Why this happened alludes me and many other academic researchers because of the fact that these results are counter-productive to the entire engagement policy that was espoused through multilayered intergovernmentalist approach between Tokyo and Beijing. In fact, given the sensitivity of Japanese public towards foreign public perception, these protests were met with Japanese people's shock and apprehension. If you go back to 2008 , 2009 and 2010 articles by Asahi Shimbun, and other media, many opinion articles focused on the theme of "What did we do to receive such protestations by China?"

Remember that it was not until 2012 that Japan had decided to nationalize the Senkaku Islands, and this was more or less a response to the anti-Chinese rhetoric in Chinese state media as well as incursions by Chinese vessels into Japanese maritime territory. So, one cannot really blame the United States' pivot, since the pivot did not start until late of 2012. Do try to have an objective approach, rather than having a purely anti-Americanism approach.


Arigadou gozaimasu.

 

[Aepsilons]

Some pupet figures say Ishihara was paid by the US, that's no secret, if you careful watched the development of Senkaku issue in recent years.

Ah. Ishihara Shintaro , as you may know , is a liberal and humanitarian. Remember that. He is deeply involved and impassioned by processes that espouse the French revolutionary spirit of, "Egalite, Fraternite e Liberte". This is why he was an avid supporter of Philippines' Corazon Aquino during the 1986 People's Power, or otherwise known as the Edsa Revolution, he was also a close friend of Malaysia's own Mahathir Mohammad and made it no secret to PM Mahathir Mohammad of his opposition to Malaysia's New Economic Policy -- otherwise known as Bumiputra Policy -- on regards to that it was unfair to other ethnic minorities who were deprived the same equality, egality, fraternity and liberty principles. In regards to China, he was mostly impassioned by the plight of buddhists in Tibet, that is why he hosted the Dalai Lama. Do remember that Ishihara Shintaro is a devout Shinto Buddhist. But you should know that recently he has been pro-China and pro-China-Japan reconciliation.

As to heresays of Ishihara being an agent of the United States, do you know how absurd that is?

He is probably one of the most anti-American politician we have. Ishihara is for a strong Japan, in fact, he is actually for Asian Integration, if you judge and observe his policies. Not what media outlets say about him.

Best,

 

[kawaraj]

Well you never know. It was not him which I personally see him once in an occasion of a project in Tokyo, he is outspoken and liberal indeed in personalilty yet conservative in other areas. It was the TIMING that define the moment and the major development.

Hillery's Asia pivot policy was in shackle in 2010 when Japan and Korea had a huge territory fight and Japan and China was warming up under DPJ. Suddenly there were a bunch of fanboys from HK boarding Senkaku and meanwhile Ishihara was selling hard his "Municipalizing / Nationalizing Senkaku". And then people down the street to protest. It was not INCIDENTAL. It was a counter measrure. Popping up nationalism in both Japan and China was the best way to solve the problem. I believe those HK fanboys are also paid.

 

[Aepsilons]

lool Blaming the U.S again for all ills in the world. So let me ask you one question: IS Japan and China kids that the U.S will play such an obvious game of divide and rule and they will keep falling for it everytime?
Stop blaming the U.S for everything, other countries too have their own share to blame themselves. So you want the U.S to forgo its national interests and encourage a rapprochement between Japan and China that ignores the U.S? As i said before, every country first and foremost looks out for their own interests and then the overall follows.

Anyway, even if the U.S is behind the 'sabotage efforts' of the flare up of this territorial dispute between Japan and China, so what? As i said before its geo politics, dont expect it to be clean.

Moreover, it isn't that bad for Japan anyway, Since there is little to nothing China can offer Japan(apart from its huge market) that Japan can have from the U.S. The U.S has been quite a good partner for Japan for all these decades since world war II and has shared alot of military tech with Japan which other countries like China, India, Turkey and other U.S allies can only dream of, plus the U.S has offered its market to Japanese automoblies,electronics and other products for decades, while Japan has been restricting its own industry from the U.S , reason you find little or now U.S product dominating the Japanese marklet aprt from software sector. So the U.S has been quite good to Japan to be honest and im sure Japanese officals/people know this, reason why they are largely favorable for a continued U.S presence in their country and still have a very favourable view of the U.S compared to how they view their Neighbours China, Russia and South Korea.

So talk of U.S influencing Japan to start tensions with China, might be true, but then so what? theres nothing China can do about it then whine/cry.lol Japan doesnt depend on China for anything other than selling their products to your country(where Japanese products still command high respect due to their quality) and thats it.

Hi Mike-San,

For one I would like to make two points:

1) Japan - China reconciliation is not anti-thetic to United States interests. In fact, it would benefit the United States to see Japan having friendly relation with China as well as South Korea. The simple fact that this would bolster intraregional trade, and reduce the possibility of military flare ups , military clashes. It benefits neither Japan, China or the United States to have a hostile Japan-China Dynamic.


2) China represents Japan's largest market. Our annualized bilateral trade is over $320 Billion. There are even regression analysis prediction that forecast it to reach $330 Billion by the end of this fiscal year. So, i cannot emphasize enough of the importance China has for us. In fact, I would prefer that China and Japan put down harsh rhetoric for one that favors friendly relations and trade. Besides, I am in the position that China will work as a conduit to the emerging markets in Central Asia.

 

[William Hung]

Japan's aging demographic will balance out in the near future. Japan will be one of the first country in the world to endorse and promote euthanasia for the aged people.

 

[Aepsilons]

Well you never know. It was not him which I personally see him once in an occasion of a project in Tokyo, he is outspoken and liberal indeed in personalilty yet conservative in other areas. It was the TIMING that define the moment and the major development.

Hillery's Asia pivot policy was in shackle in 2010 when Japan and Korea had a huge territory fight and Japan and China was warming up under DPJ. Suddenly there were a bunch of fanboys from HK boarding Senkaku and meanwhile Ishihara was selling hard his "Municipalizing / Nationalizing Senkaku". And then people down the street to protest. It was not INCIDENTAL. It was a counter measrure. Popping up nationalism in both Japan and China was the best way to solve the problem. I believe those HK fanboys are also paid.

I do remember that. In fact, it was those Hong Kongers and those Taiwanese that were going to Senkaku and making such a political ruckus as well as a media frenzy (for both Chinese and Japanese outlets). Other than that, majority of Japanese people have to know that those right wing nuttos from Hong Kong and Taiwan were practically derailing the China-Japan Communique. Then I was also enraged to see that couple of idiot Japanese Uyoko Dantai were going to Senkakus hoisting provocative flags and banners. I am glad, however, that they were arrested. The damage the had caused to the nation is very unfortunate. They must be punished.

So much time has passed since then, and the feeling of reconciliation with China and Korea is in the air throughout Japan. And this is good. I see this as a positive development.

 

[Neptune]

lool Blaming the U.S again for all ills in the world. So let me ask you one question: IS Japan and China kids that the U.S will play such an obvious game of divide and rule and they will keep falling for it everytime?
Stop blaming the U.S for everything, other countries too have their own share to blame themselves. So you want the U.S to forgo its national interests and encourage a rapprochement between Japan and China that ignores the U.S? As i said before, every country first and foremost looks out for their own interests and then the overall follows.

Anyway, even if the U.S is behind the 'sabotage efforts' of the flare up of this territorial dispute between Japan and China, so what? As i said before its geo politics, dont expect it to be clean.

Moreover, it isn't that bad for Japan anyway, Since there is little to nothing China can offer Japan(apart from its huge market) that Japan can have from the U.S. The U.S has been quite a good partner for Japan for all these decades since world war II and has shared alot of military tech with Japan which other countries like China, India, Turkey and other U.S allies can only dream of, plus the U.S has offered its market to Japanese automoblies,electronics and other products for decades, while Japan has been restricting its own industry from the U.S , reason you find little or now U.S product dominating the Japanese marklet aprt from software sector. So the U.S has been quite good to Japan to be honest and im sure Japanese officals/people know this, reason why they are largely favorable for a continued U.S presence in their country and still have a very favourable view of the U.S compared to how they view their Neighbours China, Russia and South Korea.

So talk of U.S influencing Japan to start tensions with China, might be true, but then so what? theres nothing China can do about it then whine/cry.lol Japan doesnt depend on China for anything other than selling their products to your country(where Japanese products still command high respect due to their quality) and thats it.

Ahh...which tech youre talking about? Aegis? Pac3? Point it out

 

[cnleio]

Yup, we do have a severe debt problem. About 10 trillion USD.

Still not as bad as the United State's 17 trillion USD.

... just sounds Comfortable, still a big problem in debt trillions of USD.

Can u simply explain how Japan government owe so much money ? Ths.
The U.S coz huge military expenditure each year. What about Japan, high-welfare cost in Japan society ??? Where Japanese 10 trillion USD gone during past years ?

The self-destruction of Japan is almost complete.

Just give it a few months.

U r so BAD !

 

[he-man]

As i suggested earlier too japan has only 2 options to secure future.

1)Invest heavily in cheaper country like india to drive down costs
2)Invest in africa/latin america for the same reason.

Even a stupid person will understand whats more logical
They are already in china but things will flare up post 2020,,u can be sure of that.They better have a backup plan

 

[cnleio]

As i suggested earlier too japan has only 2 options to secure future.

1)Invest heavily in cheaper country like india to drive down costs
2)Invest in africa/latin america for the same reason.

Even a stupid person will understand whats more logical
They are already in china but things will flare up post 2020,,u can be sure of that.They better have a backup plan

LOL， Don't forget Japan goods need a Huge Market to sell, future Bigger & Richer than U.S.

1. Made in Japan cost down
2. New developing market exploit

At last Japan can't leave China !

 

[he-man]

LOL， Don't forget Japan goods need a Huge Market to sell, future Bigger & Richer than U.S.

1. Made in Japan cost down
2. New developing market exploit

At last Japan can't leave China !

It will................india and china will be the future markets post 2020,,,china already is but indian buying power is low currently but even with modest 6-7 % growth over next 10 years will change it.

 

[cnleio]

It will................india and china will be the future markets post 2020,,,china already is but indian buying power is low currently but even with modest 6-7 % growth over next 10 years will change it.

Well we think the Japan has no more time to wait for Indian Money coming, not next 10 years ... right now Japan need money to pay back 10trillion USD debet.

They need to earn current money, not future money.