Future of Afghanistan?

[Leader]

There are number of countries involved in Afghanistan, some are said to be constructive and others destructive.

what can be the possible future of Afghanistan after ISAF withdrawal?(If they actually do that)

will there be again a civil war?
will they be divided back to tribal system of governance?
will 3 state formula be workable?
can Afghans be able to develop a consensus based Afghan government? or will this present system pervail?

how do you see Afghanistan shaping after expected ISAF withdraw?

 

[Ahmad]

There are number of countries involved in Afghanistan, some are said to be constructive and others destructive.

what can be the possible future of Afghanistan after ISAF withdrawal?(If they actually do that)

will there be again a civil war?
will they be divided back to tribal system of governance?
will 3 state formula be workable?
can Afghans be able to develop a consensus based Afghan government? or will this present system pervail?

how do you see Afghanistan shaping after expected ISAF withdraw?

it will be a compltet disastor with hundreds of thounads dead every year, a total distruction which will even affect the whole region.

 

[Abii]

Afghanistan is going to break up in the future. Just my opinion.
If that ever happens then Herat will undoubtedly reunite with Iran (provided that there is a new and more progressive regime in Iran).

 

[desioptimist]

I dont think afganistan is breaking in near future. Too much is at stake here. I want to see it stabilize, crawl, walk and then run one day.

 

[Leader]

I dont think afganistan is breaking in near future. Too much is at stake here. I want to see it stabilize, crawl, walk and then run one day.

Everyone wants to see it stabalized,

however, Americans have porposed this plan to divide Afghanistan into three states based on ethnic groups, there is a plus point that unlike Iraq there is little intermingling between the major ethnic groups.

 

[madooxno9]

Afghanistan has got a good future , just in one case when all nations stop this messing around and these extremist stop their radical nature and leave peacefully ...

 

[Leader]

it will be a compltet disastor with hundreds of thounads dead every year, a total distruction which will even affect the whole region.

I feel USA will not leave Afghanistan, what do you think Ahmad? what should be the practical solution suitable to Afghanistan?

 

[Leader]

Afghanistan is going to break up in the future. Just my opinion.
If that ever happens then Herat will undoubtedly reunite with Iran (provided that there is a new and more progressive regime in Iran).

hmm...I dont think so Iran would make the mistake to officially take Herat as her part, it shouldnot rather ever attempt to do so, cultivate influence not intervene must be Iran's Policy.

 

[Leader]

Afghanistan has got a good future , just in one case when all nations stop this messing around and these extremist stop their radical nature and leave peacefully ...

with future prospects it is an important piece of land, atleast being there keeps you in the game. I dont feel like anybody is getting out of there.

 

[muse]

Today there are 30-35 million persons in Afghanistan --- with the average household numbering between 9 to 11 -- what will happen in the next 10-15 years when that population will not only double but the set the stage for it's tripling?? How are these peoples expectations to be met? how are they to be fed, employed, etc, etc.. --- Generally, nation states foreign policy reflects their internal situation, so in the next 10-15 years what can the neighbors of Afghanistan, that is to say, Pakistan and Iran and China, expect, especially with the US refusing to leave?

To my thinking, it's difficult to be optimistic --- after all, we can turn the paradigm around, after all, Afghanistan's neighbors are not going to be sitting on their thumbs, US or no US - these neighbors have their own internal dynamic and will choose to deal with possible contingencies arising out of both a humanitarian factor and a governance collapse, not to mention the issue of EXPECTATIONS --- migration will become a major problem, a very serious problem, after all, can people be blamed for wanting a better life for their children??

 

[Leader]

Today there are 30-35 million persons in Afghanistan --- with the average household numbering between 9 to 11 -- what will happen in the next 10-15 years when that population will not only double but the set the stage for it's tripling?? How are these peoples expectations to be met? how are they to be fed, employed, etc, etc.. --- Generally, nation states foreign policy reflects their internal situation, so in the next 10-15 years what can the neighbors of Afghanistan, that is to say, Pakistan and Iran and China, expect, especially with the US refusing to leave?

To my thinking, it's difficult to be optimistic --- after all, we can turn the paradigm around, after all, Afghanistan's neighbors are not going to be sitting on their thumbs, US or no US - these neighbors have their own internal dynamic and will choose to deal with possible contingencies arising out of both a humanitarian factor and a governance collapse, not to mention the issue of EXPECTATIONS --- migration will become a major problem, a very serious problem, after all, can people be blamed for wanting a better life for their children??

its immediate implications shall be on PAKistan, what do you think PAKistan shold do?

 

[muse]

Obviously Pakistan will be hoping to do everything possible to ensure that Afghanistan remains a state and is not divided along sectarian, ethnic or tribal lines -- and for this to happen, it must be extremely clear with the US, as to what the intentions of the US are, and it must be very clear and insistent about the kind of US military capability it will accept in Afghanistan - to day, Pakistan has not done this, because, in my opinion, it does not realize that it must do this to simply survive. Similarly Pakistan must work to ensure deep economic and social and political linkages with Afghanistan, a outflow of population into Pakistan will be highly destabilizing (EXPECTATIONS), it will effect civil society and the effort of government to provide services and collect taxes - perhaps with the exception of Pakistan, the Afghan nation's resentment of paying taxes, has no equal.

Many will think that with Obama in office that the neocon project to redraw the maps of Muslim majority countries is dead - nothing could be further from the truth, indeed once Wolfowitz's "policy guidelines" were incorporated within US defense policy, the project has become unstoppable and only the kind of planning, that is to say ensuring that "like minded" officials occupy offices .

So really, to my thinking, the greatest challenge is to ensure that the US exits Afghanistan and can never again be allowed to enter.

 

[Jinnah]

Only INDEPENDENT Afghanistan!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Veritas]

Only INDEPENDENT Afghanistan!!!!!!!!!!!!

Afghanistan that is no one's back yard or part of "strategic depth".

 

[muse]

Not the US's ? Then we are agreed