Friedman: Asian nations befriending US to contain China?
Dont believe everything you read in the paper. Take this headline that appeared a couple of weeks ago, when I was in New Delhi, in a Indian newspaper: US Not Seeking to Contain China: Clinton. It was referring to a statement made by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton while on a swing through Asia. No, Washington is not trying to contain China the way we once did the Soviet Union, but President Barack Obama didnt just spend three days in India to improve his yoga.
His visit was intended to let China know that America knows that India knows that Beijings recent aggressiveness, as one Indian minister put it to me, has Chinas neighbors a bit on edge. None of Chinas neighbors dare mention the C-word containment in public. Indeed, none of them want to go there at all or intend to promote such a policy. But theres a new whiff of anxiety in the Asian air.
All of Chinas neighbors want China to know, as the sign says: Dont even think about parking here. Dont even think about using your growing economic and military clout to just impose your claims in border disputes and over oil-rich islands in the South China Sea. Because, if you do, all of Chinas neighbors will be doomed to become Americas new best friends including India.
Thats why each one of Chinas neighbors is eager to have a picture of their president standing with Clinton or Obama with the unspoken caption that reads: Honestly, China, we dont want to throttle you. We dont want an Asian Cold War. We just want to trade and be on good terms. But, please, stay between the white lines. Dont even think about parking in my space because, if you do, I have this friend from Washington, and hes really big. ... And hes got his own tow truck.
Id call this pre-containment or containment-lite triggered in the last year by a sudden upsurge in Chinas assertion of claims to all the South China Sea. It marks a stark contrast to the mood in the region just two years ago. As Christian Caryl, a contributing editor at Foreign Policy magazine, noted in an Aug. 4 essay: China for years was being praised by Asian experts for being so shrewd, so clever, so deft, in building cultural and economic ties with all its neighbors and outmaneuvering the stupid, oafish Americans. But in just six months, China has cast itself in the role of bully and prompted its neighbors to roll out the red carpets for Uncle Sam.
In recent months, noted Caryl, Beijing has elevated its claims to territory in the South China Sea to the level of a core national interest on par with Tibet or Taiwan, and that has sparked considerable anger among the other countries in the region including Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam that claim ownership of pieces of the sea. ... Then, just in case the Americans and the Southeast Asians still didnt get the message, the Chinese Navy staged large-scale maneuvers in the sea, deploying ships from all three of its fleets. Admirals watched as the ships fired off volleys of missiles at imaginary enemies all of it shown in loving detail by Chinese television.
China has also muscled Vietnam into halting its oil exploration in what Beijing claimed were Chinese territorial waters and forced Japan to release a Chinese fishing boat captain, who was arrested after a collision with two Japanese coast guard vessels near disputed islands in the East China Sea. China got its way with Japan by halting Chinas exports to Japan of rare earth elements crucial for advanced manufacturing.
With the Chinese Communist Party increasingly dependent on the military to maintain its monopoly on power and ensure domestic order, senior military officers are overtly influencing foreign policy, wrote Brahma Chellaney, a defense analyst at Delhis Center for Policy Research.
But the Indians, like their fellow Asians, really do not want to go beyond containment-lite with China for now. Sure India and China are at odds over borders and Pakistan, but China is now Indias largest trading partner.
Also, never forget that Indian foreign policy has a long history of nonalignment. Until a year ago, the big Indian debate was how do we deal with American hegemony, said the Indian strategist C. Raja Mohan. Many of Indias older elites still fear US imperialism and neo-Liberalism.
And, finally, says the Indian defense analyst Kanti Basu: Deep down, the Indians who pay attention in the strategic community sense that the Chinese are rising and the Americans are fading and it doesnt look like the Americans are going to fix their problems any time soon. So dont bet the silverware on America.
No, India is not going to jump into Americas arms. But were not asking it to. Democracy, geopolitics, geography and economics are all combining to move America and India closer together. And thats a good thing for both. If China plays it smart, Indian-American relations will never go beyond pre-containment. But if China doesnt play it smart, Obama to India could one day become the new Nixon to China: My enemys enemy is my new best friend.
Next 5-10 years will be exciting in this part of the world
Dont believe everything you read in the paper. Take this headline that appeared a couple of weeks ago, when I was in New Delhi, in a Indian newspaper: US Not Seeking to Contain China: Clinton. It was referring to a statement made by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton while on a swing through Asia. No, Washington is not trying to contain China the way we once did the Soviet Union, but President Barack Obama didnt just spend three days in India to improve his yoga.
His visit was intended to let China know that America knows that India knows that Beijings recent aggressiveness, as one Indian minister put it to me, has Chinas neighbors a bit on edge. None of Chinas neighbors dare mention the C-word containment in public. Indeed, none of them want to go there at all or intend to promote such a policy. But theres a new whiff of anxiety in the Asian air.
All of Chinas neighbors want China to know, as the sign says: Dont even think about parking here. Dont even think about using your growing economic and military clout to just impose your claims in border disputes and over oil-rich islands in the South China Sea. Because, if you do, all of Chinas neighbors will be doomed to become Americas new best friends including India.
Thats why each one of Chinas neighbors is eager to have a picture of their president standing with Clinton or Obama with the unspoken caption that reads: Honestly, China, we dont want to throttle you. We dont want an Asian Cold War. We just want to trade and be on good terms. But, please, stay between the white lines. Dont even think about parking in my space because, if you do, I have this friend from Washington, and hes really big. ... And hes got his own tow truck.
Id call this pre-containment or containment-lite triggered in the last year by a sudden upsurge in Chinas assertion of claims to all the South China Sea. It marks a stark contrast to the mood in the region just two years ago. As Christian Caryl, a contributing editor at Foreign Policy magazine, noted in an Aug. 4 essay: China for years was being praised by Asian experts for being so shrewd, so clever, so deft, in building cultural and economic ties with all its neighbors and outmaneuvering the stupid, oafish Americans. But in just six months, China has cast itself in the role of bully and prompted its neighbors to roll out the red carpets for Uncle Sam.
In recent months, noted Caryl, Beijing has elevated its claims to territory in the South China Sea to the level of a core national interest on par with Tibet or Taiwan, and that has sparked considerable anger among the other countries in the region including Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam that claim ownership of pieces of the sea. ... Then, just in case the Americans and the Southeast Asians still didnt get the message, the Chinese Navy staged large-scale maneuvers in the sea, deploying ships from all three of its fleets. Admirals watched as the ships fired off volleys of missiles at imaginary enemies all of it shown in loving detail by Chinese television.
China has also muscled Vietnam into halting its oil exploration in what Beijing claimed were Chinese territorial waters and forced Japan to release a Chinese fishing boat captain, who was arrested after a collision with two Japanese coast guard vessels near disputed islands in the East China Sea. China got its way with Japan by halting Chinas exports to Japan of rare earth elements crucial for advanced manufacturing.
With the Chinese Communist Party increasingly dependent on the military to maintain its monopoly on power and ensure domestic order, senior military officers are overtly influencing foreign policy, wrote Brahma Chellaney, a defense analyst at Delhis Center for Policy Research.
But the Indians, like their fellow Asians, really do not want to go beyond containment-lite with China for now. Sure India and China are at odds over borders and Pakistan, but China is now Indias largest trading partner.
Also, never forget that Indian foreign policy has a long history of nonalignment. Until a year ago, the big Indian debate was how do we deal with American hegemony, said the Indian strategist C. Raja Mohan. Many of Indias older elites still fear US imperialism and neo-Liberalism.
And, finally, says the Indian defense analyst Kanti Basu: Deep down, the Indians who pay attention in the strategic community sense that the Chinese are rising and the Americans are fading and it doesnt look like the Americans are going to fix their problems any time soon. So dont bet the silverware on America.
No, India is not going to jump into Americas arms. But were not asking it to. Democracy, geopolitics, geography and economics are all combining to move America and India closer together. And thats a good thing for both. If China plays it smart, Indian-American relations will never go beyond pre-containment. But if China doesnt play it smart, Obama to India could one day become the new Nixon to China: My enemys enemy is my new best friend.
Next 5-10 years will be exciting in this part of the world
