Forex reserves slip below $40b for first time in two years

[Bengal71]

I would be very surprised if the next nuclear plant does not have much larger capacity like the example I gave - BD power demand by then would be like twice what it is now.

Any country that relies on volatile/unreliable and potentially expensive fossil fuelled power plants is going to ruin itself.

This will also accelerate BD investments in hydroelectric power plants in Nepal/Bhutan. 500MW will come in 2026 from a joint venture between Nepal/BD and Bhutan and more will follow soon after I am sure.

This year and part of 2023 will be tough for sure but things will slowly get better from 2nd half of next year for BD.

I am not sure how wise the Nepal/Bhutan investment is, it creates a dependency on Indian goodwill. The political weather between nations don't remain same all the time, it is best not to create dependency on critical matters such a power.

 

[UKBengali]

I am not sure how wise the Nepal/Bhutan investment is, it creates a dependency on Indian goodwill. The political weather between nations don't remain same all the time, it is best not to create dependency on critical matters such a power.

As long as BD has idle plants(gas/coal) that can replace this at short notice then it is fine - no more than 15-20% of total power demand I think is safe upper limit.

BD and India have little choice but to co-operate with each other in order to move to middle-income stage.

It will not be easy for India to do this short of war, as they also need to think about the potential devastating impact to the Nepalese and Bhutanese economies and hence creating deep animosity in those nations against India - The 'Dragon' is just waiting across the Himalayas to take advantage.

BD is likely to become the 3rd largest export destination for India by 2030 and they need to think about potential retaliation from BD in terms of blocking energy supplies.

Yes it may not work out but the chances of this happening are really slim, and the gains massive not just from cheap and clean electricity imports but BD's interest in helping both the Nepalese and Bhutanese economies grow.

 

[SoulSpokesman]

@Bengal71

Ekattor Dada,

UKB Dada (@UKBengali) is right. BD's energy needs are immense and its ecology will not support huge power capacities on its own soil. It imports oil and gas from elsewhere and it wont harm to import power from India (solar, wind, thermal) and Nepal Bhutan (hydro).

India has little to gain by cutting off BDs energy supply. Besides India isnt doing BD a favour by exporting energy- it gains hard cash plus for Nepal and Bhutan power it will get some transmission charges as well.

Regards

 

[bluesky]

You are not wrong.

But BD is following export oriented growth model which has a proven better track record than import substitution. India did import substitution in the early decades after independence, but the results were subpar.

Granted back in 1950 India didn't really have much of a choice. Globalized economy was shattered and we had barely anything to export to begin with. Jute, Tea and some minerals, that's it.

Export oriented growth isn't risk free. Sometimes things do go wrong like Thailand in 1997. But BD looks ok.



Why? Such a scenario will massively expand food production. Food will become cheaper and after a while economies will readjust.

It's like the Indian commies' take in the 1980s against computerization. Oh nose! The computer will make the lowly office clerk jobless! 40 years later IT is one of the few things that's keeping Indian economy alive.

Learn the reality and stop bullshitting all the time that you Indians always do to derail BD industrial development.

 

[bluesky]

Nothing can be done now but Roopur first reactor of 1.2GW is just 12 months away.

BD is unable to supply power when it has borrowed billions of dollars to build 30,000 MW of power stations and here you are hoodwinking us to believe your Rooppur with only 1200 MW will satisfy all the shortages.

Are you still living on Mars? Come down to our great BD and see how people are suffering in summer with BAL lies and propaganda. Go and check the power stations, you will see most are under repair or maintenance, and people there are unable to do these works properly. So, it will take a whole year to repair.

Well, this is Bangladesh run by your autocrat aunt Hasina Bibi.

 

[UKBengali]

^^ Totally useless illiterate who is still criticising BD for having the foresight to build nuclear, when now BD will be paying much lower repayments each year when the loan payments start in 2027, than in buying gas to generate electricity in a similar capacity plant to that of Roopur nuclear.

Luckily the likes of him have ZERO say in what happens in BD on the ground.

 

[Rushd Alam]

A lot of our people are pinning blames of economic woes exclusively on the government. A lot of these problems are being caused by the Russia-Ukraine war which increased the oil prices, food prices and other necessary mineral prices that are required for industries. Almost all countries of the world are suffering and it is the doing of the US and EU with their senseless sanctions on Russia.

Just one criticism I will do that is goverments decision to rely on imported LNG dispite working on Exploring new reserve and not investing on old gas reserves and coal that would have made us comfortable in this situation.

Hope SH government has learned their lesson on this occasions and will make better decision on future enery mix and counter the LNG and quick rental lobby.

 

[Bengal71]

Just one criticism I will do that is goverments decision to rely on imported LNG dispite working on Exploring new reserve and not investing on old gas reserves and coal that would have made us comfortable in this situation.

Hope SH government has learned their lesson on this occasions and will make better decision on future enery mix and counter the LNG and quick rental lobby.

Do we even have reserves?

 

[Rushd Alam]

Oil price is below 100 US dollars a barrel again.

Gas prices are around 3-4 times higher than a year ago though and that will impact the gas fired power plants as BD is no longer self-sufficient in this resource.


Roopur reactor 1(1.2GW) will come online in 2023 and reactor 2(1.2GW) will come online in 2024. With hydroelectric from Nepal flowing from 2026(0.5GW) things will slowly start to get better even if fuel prices stay relatively high throughout this decade. More hydroelectric power is likely to flow from Nepal and potentially Bhutan later on this decade.

BD should be relatively ok unlike some other developing countries.

PS - These high fuel prices will almost certainly mean that the 2nd nuclear power plant is ready and operational by 2030.

We should be on energy surplus but unfortunately our leaders had different plans with LNG. Strong decision has to be taken on coal exploration as well if this situation continues, as we cant afford an economic collapse while sitting on energy resourses.

 

[Rushd Alam]

Do we even have reserves?

The amount we have already known is proven reserves that will last us 15 years, experts say if we spend we can increase the gas supply to cover all our energy need. In last few decades we have Pretty much did not gas exploration,only 22 since year 2000, without exploration we obviously will not have proven reserve.

You can read up online article on possible gas that can be found but left unexplored due to policy issues. There is a big lobby for LNG and rental captive power that is influencing governments decision, the situation today is result of that. But its still not too late.

Natural Gas – Underexplored in Bangladesh?

Increasing demand, decreasing supply, untested high-potential plays, and much-needed exploration.

www.geoexpro.com

Gas reserve potential left unexplored in Bangladesh

Bangladesh, globally hailed as a potential gas basin, has long been in the grip of an acute gas crisis thanks to lack of gas exploration initiatives, said experts. In the past 12 years, only 18 exploration wells have been dug with the discovery of four gas fields, according to the Bangladesh...

www.steinandpartners.com

 

[Rushd Alam]

Lower reserves certainly a point of huge concern and BD is going to face heavy challenges in the upcoming global slowdown. But it needs to be pointed out BD achieved the $40bn reserves only a couple of years ago.

Manpower export is up, next harvest post flooding should be a bumper one so will help the scenario somewhat.

Huge import bill beyond oil and food imports was also caused by capital machinery and raw goods like cotton in anticipation huge orders for RMG we are seeing. These will translate in higher export in due course.

I do not for a second make light of the scenario, it is serious but there are also silver lining and hopefully we will see dampening of the deficit in coming months.

Dont want to say much but cant help but share this from a gas expert

“There is no reason for believing that the gas reserve is depleting. We are being fed propaganda to keep open the LNG import opportunity”, Prof. Imam

Gas reserve potential left unexplored in Bangladesh

Bangladesh, globally hailed as a potential gas basin, has long been in the grip of an acute gas crisis thanks to lack of gas exploration initiatives, said experts. In the past 12 years, only 18 exploration wells have been dug with the discovery of four gas fields, according to the Bangladesh...

www.steinandpartners.com

 

[UKBengali]

Dont want to say much but cant help but share this from a gas expert

“There is no reason for believing that the gas reserve is depleting. We are being fed propaganda to keep open the LNG import opportunity”, Prof. Imam

Gas reserve potential left unexplored in Bangladesh

Bangladesh, globally hailed as a potential gas basin, has long been in the grip of an acute gas crisis thanks to lack of gas exploration initiatives, said experts. In the past 12 years, only 18 exploration wells have been dug with the discovery of four gas fields, according to the Bangladesh...

www.steinandpartners.com

I really doubt that there is so much corruption that it is stopping BD from fully exploiting what it has in terms of gas reserves. Anyway it is a dumb idea to burn gas to generate electricity to start off with as it should be restricted to household cooking and industrial uses.

It should be ok after this year as nuclear and hydroelectric will start coming online progressively over the rest of the decade.

 

[Realtalk108]

Learn the reality and stop bullshitting all the time that you Indians always do to derail BD industrial development.

I am being realistic. BD has found a proven growth model and it has worked very well for last 20 years.

Diversification will happen in due time.

 

[defencenoob]

In fact, the time left by modern civilization to agricultural countries is running out.

If the controllable nuclear fusion technology is successful, the food grown through nuclear fusion and soilless cultivation technology will quickly occupy the market like industrial products.

At that time, countries that rely on agriculture will usher in devastating disasters.

Seizing every minute and rapidly realizing national industrialization is the responsibility of the country for the future.

How will nuclear fusion help in soilless cultivation, by reducing the cost of electricity? I don't think you can grow anything except a few plants using soilless tech.
Will love to know more.

 

[UKBengali]

I am being realistic. BD has found a proven growth model and it has worked very well for last 20 years.

Diversification will happen in due time.

Diversification is already in the process of happening.

IT Exports - Rising by 35-40% a year and predicted to hit 5 billion a year by 2025 from current 1.8 billion.

Home electronics and appliances - Growing by many hundreds of per cent a year now and now at 100 million US dollars from just over 1 million US dollars 3 years ago.

BD companies have pretty much got the multi-billion US dollar home markets in pharma and electronics all stitched up and they are now starting to branch into exports in a bigger way than before.