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FBR tax collection up 38.2% YoY for Q1 2021-2022


Exceeds target by Rs186 billion too.
If the same growth rate is sustained over the entire year, it will reach 6000-6500 billion at the year end.
Increase comes from imports lol
Imports are big concern
If they run amoke sure you will get growth and low inflation but you may have problem balancing the reserves

As long as you can reliably finance your deficit you should be fine, as growth is solution to all problems but can you RELIABLY finanace massive deficits ...probably not...

What i would suggest is tightining non essential imports(by taxing them up) and letting rupee be independenr..if thats done imports will be controlled by sliding rupee anyway(but inflation wont be)

Question is can the govt afford inflation POLITICALLY..probably not

So what do govt end up doing we know that from history
 
Up by 38% mean GDP growth this quarter was well above target of 5%. Problem is Pakistan cannot afford this import led growth.

Imports this year will touch $80b. Exports around $38b. $31b will come from remmitances. Pakistan will have CAD of $10b in best case scenario. Remember initial target of CAD was $5b for this year. If PTI does Dollar Dar/Nawajo like then they can chase GDP growth while leave in 2023 with little to no foreign reserves. Or opt for lower but stable growth by increasing agricultural production and industrialisation.
 

Exceeds target by Rs186 billion too.
If the same growth rate is sustained over the entire year, it will reach 6000-6500 billion at the year end.
At this rate, it would reach the 5-5.5 trillion PKR mark (after 11% depreciation of PKR and imports of goods and services at a breakneck pace). The target was 5.8 trillion PKR. The petroleum levy and Sales tax on petroleum products have been drastically reduced to provide relief to the masses in the face of peaking crude prices globally. Around 600 billion PKR were to be earned into the national kitty through that (petro levy) avenue, which would no longer be possible. SBP has started enforcing policies to dampen import growth and reduce import volume, which would further impede the tax collection (via custom duties). LSM growth has slowed down drastically, which means that the GDP growth we are expecting for the current financial year might be subdued if the same trend in LSM continues. Subdued growth compared to projections would consequent in less revenue collection. Both GDP growth and revenue collection are directly proportional to each other.
 
There is soo much tax evasion in dry ports in the north of the country.

Few BIG companies import through Northern dry ports when actually they are based in Karachi.

Few imported items that I buy from the northern part of the country, it's impossible to sell at such a low price unless there is massive tax evasion and bribe given to the custom / tax authorities.

Imports in Karachi ports go through the strictest of checking by the custom / tax authorities.
 

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