F-35A in full loadout for first time

[CriticalThought]

He's assumed you think Red Flag is rigged. And then for some reason claimed I also said the same. Neither you nor I made any claims such as that.

Well, I did raise some suspicions regarding Red Flag. My faith on F-35 will improve once results from operational testing come around.

 

[randomradio]

Well, I did raise some suspicions regarding Red Flag. My faith on F-35 will improve once results from operational testing come around.

Gambit and I are presently discussing a weakness in the F-35 that will never be overcome until after 2035. Even if it undergoes operational testing, they can't fix those flaws.

They speak of NGJ being able to overcome some of the limitations of the F-35's EW capability, but they forget that the NGJ will only be optimized for subsonic speeds. Not to mention, the integration of the NGJ is expected to be taken up only after Block 4 or even Block 5, and that's 2023 at the earliest. The integration process itself may take many years after that.

 

[CriticalThought]

Gambit and I are presently discussing a weakness in the F-35 that will never be overcome until after 2035. Even if it undergoes operational testing, they can't fix those flaws.

They speak of NGJ being able to overcome some of the limitations of the F-35's EW capability, but they forget that the NGJ will only be optimized for subsonic speeds. Not to mention, the integration of the NGJ is expected to be taken up only after Block 4 or even Block 5, and that's 2023 at the earliest. The integration process itself may take many years after that.

The guys doing Operational Testing create realistic scenarios representing real world threats faced today. They go to the extent of buying actual Russian aircraft if that is what's needed. If these people give the all clear, it means the F-35 is ready for prime time.

Since I don't have access to confidential information, I can't say whether there is a perceived weakness in F-35 or not. But then again, supposedly F-22 couldn't fire the AIM-9X for a long time. Yet, they didn't stop flying it. And nobody has ever claimed that F-22 has a 'weakness'. In the real world, there are always design tradeoffs, limitations due to budget/time/political constraints etc. It is possible to pick on a trade-off, and inflate it until it becomes an Achilles' Heel. But if that was realistic, no one would make any aircraft at all.

That said, it is evident that if F-35 went one on one against Rafale, the Rafale should get an easy kill. The reality is, F-35 will never be alone. It will play its role in a larger game plan. Which makes idiots out of all airforces other than USAF who are buying into it. For ever more, their security will depend on America, this time because they have coughed up big money for the privilege to suckle on America's teat.

 

[randomradio]

The guys doing Operational Testing create realistic scenarios representing real world threats faced today. They go to the extent of buying actual Russian aircraft if that is what's needed. If these people give the all clear, it means the F-35 is ready for prime time.

It depends. The Americans may have gone to the extent of getting old Russian aircraft, but there's no real point in training against a F-4 class or F-16A class in 2017. Those are not the threats you face. The Americans have learnt more about Flankers by training with India than they ever will with an old Su-27 even after 20 years training with them. It's simply not the same.

Since I don't have access to confidential information, I can't say whether there is a perceived weakness in F-35 or not. But then again, supposedly F-22 couldn't fire the AIM-9X for a long time. Yet, they didn't stop flying it. And nobody has ever claimed that F-22 has a 'weakness'. In the real world, there are always design tradeoffs, limitations due to budget/time/political constraints etc. It is possible to pick on a trade-off, and inflate it until it becomes an Achilles' Heel. But if that was realistic, no one would make any aircraft at all.

The Aim-9X example is not really a weakness. The F-22 has/had no competitors for a WVR missile to be important.

The F-35's weakness is far more debilitating than that. It is in fact an extremely vulnerable point. That's why the Israelis have paid hundreds of millions of dollars to get some level of capability to counter that weakness. It was a miscalculation on part of the Americans, and they have admitted to this.

That said, it is evident that if F-35 went one on one against Rafale, the Rafale should get an easy kill. The reality is, F-35 will never be alone. It will play its role in a larger game plan. Which makes idiots out of all airforces other than USAF who are buying into it. For ever more, their security will depend on America, this time because they have coughed up big money for the privilege to suckle on America's teat.

Yes, politics has played a huge role. But it's not going to last long, what with the EU introducing the Common Defence plan. In a decade from now, Brussels may be making the decision for all European countries, which means France and Germany will be the ones making the decisions.

 

[jhungary]

It's really important how you deal with the propaganda aspect of the program.

They are not advertising the F-35 as a F-16 replacement, they are advertising it as a F-15 replacement. Therein lies the problem. They are promising apples and giving oranges. And their propaganda machinery wants to convince people that the oranges are really apples.

But if you pit it against a 4th gen jet that has superior performance and is carrying electronics that's good enough to compete, that orange going to turn into a lemon so fast that your HQ commander is not gonna have anymore oranges to throw at the enemy.

This is a very good example of the propaganda machinery.

If 8 F-35s are equal to 2 F-22s. Then 16 F-35s are equal to 4 F-22s. That little graphic should have had F-35s at the top and F-22s at the bottom. This is Hostage's opinion, not mine.

The F-35 still requires counter air and escorts. Basically, very little has changed, perhaps nothing's changed. People have just become high on propaganda when it comes to the F-35.

To top that, now the USAF is convinced the F-22 also won't maintain air superiority after the 2030 period. That much is obvious to anyone who's studied a bit about stealth since most of its stealth comes from shaping, which has become pretty useless. That's among the principle reasons why they did not authorize the restarting of a modernized F-22 line. They can't compete without a new jet.

http://www.military.com/daily-news/2017/06/21/the-f22-fighter-jet-restart-dead-study.html
The Air Force has no plans restart the F-22 production line; it wouldn't make economic or operational sense to do so," according to a statement from Air Force spokeswoman Capt. Emily Grabowski.

The high cost reason is simply rubbish. More propaganda. The procurement cost for 194 jets is $50B, that's $257M per jet, including the cost of setting up production line. This cost also includes the expenditure on modernization. That's only $7M more than what India is paying for Rafale, excluding the cost of production line and modernization. So it's pure rubbish. Especially when they can sell the modernized F-22s to countries like Japan, Turkey and Israel and further reduce costs, while also permanently shutting down their indigenous programs.

Read this:
http://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/everyone-who-wanted-more-f-22s-is-being-proven-right-1732105884

@jhungary @gambit

The F-35 is to replace F-15E/S/K not F-15C as an air superiority fighter. In fact, F-35 were to replace all F-16, F-15E Strike Eagle, A-10 Warthog when F-35 was in conception. (It's very easy to see if you look at how many F-22 the US have vs how many F-15 the US have, and the number of F-35 the USAF is procuring and how many F-16 in service)

F-35 existence is NEVER going to be air to air combat, they have the ability to fight off Air Dominance fighter, but they were not used as one. The deployment between F-22 and F-35 is like F-15 and F-16/F-117A Where F-22 would fly high and engage Air Superiority Fighter, F-35 will loiter in the area and suppress ground base air defence, allowing other fighter (F-18E/F or A-10 or other F-35) to fly in and do CAS.

F-35 also used as a air penetrator, which is uses a squadron or 2 to fly deep inside enemy line and disrupt enemy C&C and communication structure.

You don't march F-35 on other air superiority fighter, 4th gen or 5th gen, those are the job of F-22 and future 6th Gen Aircraft.

 

[Gomig-21]

My previous post explains that.

Sorry but that's not what you said. You said "they are advertising the F-35 as a replacement for the F-15, not the F-16." Yet it's well know that the F-35 has always been 'advertised' as the targeted replacement AC for the F-16, the AV-8B, A-10 etc. Not the F-15. The F-15 was slated to be replaced by the F-22 but that obviously didn't go down too well. Now the USAF is considering replacing its F-15C/D with upgraded F-16!

http://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/the-air-force-considers-retiring-the-f-15c-d-for-the-f-1793560213

This is from just a couple of months ago, which is much more recent than what Chief of Staff Gen. Mark A. Welsh III had suggested a year ago about the F-35 replacing the F-16.

http://www.f-16.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=50035&p=345888

Your theory of countries with offensive power needing the F-22 is only "could've would've should've" according to you, but it's not what they're thinking or advertising as you suggested.

Any 4th gen jet with advanced radar and other sensors. A lot of 4th gen jets around the world are approaching MLUs, so they will all be carrying avionics far superior to what's on the F-35.

My friend, you can't be serious? You're making the assumption that while every other 4th gen aircraft will be improving through time and their respective MLU's, at the same time you're predicting (more like assuming) the F-35 will be sitting there turning into an obsolete duck. Do you realize how nuts that is? Some of the stuff you say makes sense, even though much of it is prediction, but statements like this are outrageous predictions, with all due respect.

Take Israel for example, they are getting the F-35s, but they still want to invest in more F-15Es instead of opting for more F-35s.

Funny because a couple of months later and from the same source, they're now considering getting more F-35's and particularly the F-35B STOVL to replace their older (1979) F-15's.
This is from a few weeks ago, so well updated info.

"Israel's initial requirement was for 75 F-35s, and the need to replace older Boeing F-15 fighters – the oldest of which were delivered in 1976 – is becoming a high-priority issue."

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/israel-weighing-interest-in-stovl-variant-f-35-439959/

So who the heck knows what they're doing and either way, what they do doesn't affect the overall F-35's position in the global aspect of military aviation and particularly how the USAF will be operating them.

Rafale has Adaptive Radar Countermeasures, the F-35 doesn't.

There is so much they are working on such as Eagle Passive Active Warning Survivability System (EPAWSS) for the F-15E EW suite and to say they're 15 years behind and then simply suggest that only the Israelis have figured it out by adding their own systems on their F-35's and those will be the only worthy ones while every one else's -- including the USAF/USN/USMC won't......is really not reality. Maybe even a little India/Israel bias?

Does that mean the F-35 is a sitting duck? The US has always made EW operations the primary role of supporting aircraft. In the USAF it was the F-111 and in the Navy and Marine Corps is was the EA-6B Prowlers.
The F-111 was retired for the F-15E and the EA-6B to the EA-18G Growlers carrying the AL-Q99 which will be replaced with the GaN NGJ by 2021. Hardly 15 years behind as you suggested, my friend. The US has been well on top of EW please don't be fooled by generals using the old line of being far behind the Russians or Europeans as we all know these are lobbying tactics for more funding.

Here's the replacement for the AL-Q99 and by 2021. Hardly 15 years. The same principle will be used for the F-35 escort platforms if they're not already working on its own system, considering the cyber warfare caps in the F-35 already.

Gallium Nitrate (GaN) All-Aspect/Full Spectrum Next Generation Jammer (NGJ) by Raytheon.

Being tested on a Gulfstream. 2021 they'll be hung off of the EA-18G Growlers. I would say well ahead of 15 years behind the Russians.

So the tactics will still be the same, having ECM roles performed by dedicated aircraft working with the F-35. This will maintain the F-35's lethality. I think you're vastly underestimating the F-35.

 

[DavidSling]

Israel is adding it's own features to every platform it's buying from the international market, and has nothing to do with the F-35, but has everything to do with Israeli needs in the region.

 

[randomradio]

The F-35 is to replace F-15E/S/K not F-15C as an air superiority fighter. In fact, F-35 were to replace all F-16, F-15E Strike Eagle, A-10 Warthog when F-35 was in conception.

Many F-15Cs are to be replaced by the F-35. You can be assured the F-15Es will only go after F-15Cs. Some F-15Cs can be pushed to 2040, but there's not going to be many of those.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/a...ons-for-replacement-of-boeing-f-15e-s-380233/
"There are no plans to replace the F-15E for the foreseeable future," the USAF says. "It is true that the F-15E, like all of our legacy aircraft, are accumulating more flight time than used to be typical, but given current fiscal realities, the AF [air force] fleet will continue to age well past the point at which they would have been replaced in pre-Desert Storm days."

In fact, the delays have been so bad that there's even talk of replacing some of the F-15Cs with upgraded F-16s.
http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...-15c-eagle-and-replace-it-with-upgraded-f-16s

The original plan called for the F-22As to replace all the F-15C/Ds. And the FB-22 to replace the F-15E after 15 years or so.

(It's very easy to see if you look at how many F-22 the US have vs how many F-15 the US have, and the number of F-35 the USAF is procuring and how many F-16 in service)

It only supports my argument.

F-15 - 450
F-22 - 183... Difference = -250

F-16 - 1100+
A-10 - 300
F-35 - 1750+... Difference = +350

You can see where it's going.

F-35 existence is NEVER going to be air to air combat, they have the ability to fight off Air Dominance fighter, but they were not used as one.

That's exactly the opposite of what the USAF is going to do now. You have Robert Gates to blame for that. The thing is the Pentagon underestimated the Chinese really, really badly.

The deployment between F-22 and F-35 is like F-15 and F-16/F-117A Where F-22 would fly high and engage Air Superiority Fighter, F-35 will loiter in the area and suppress ground base air defence, allowing other fighter (F-18E/F or A-10 or other F-35) to fly in and do CAS.

Yeah, but there are too few F-22s. This is more of a problem for Japan, Israel and Turkey. The US is well on its way to get a F-22 successor by 2028. The other three need an F-22 equivalent at the minimum.

You don't march F-35 on other air superiority fighter, 4th gen or 5th gen, those are the job of F-22 and future 6th Gen Aircraft.

Yup. But until 2035, the F-35 will have to pick up the air superiority slack until the PCA is ready to take over.

Sorry but that's not what you said. You said "they are advertising the F-35 as a replacement for the F-15, not the F-16." Yet it's well know that the F-35 has always been 'advertised' as the targeted replacement AC for the F-16, the AV-8B, A-10 etc. Not the F-15. The F-15 was slated to be replaced by the F-22 but that obviously didn't go down too well. Now the USAF is considering replacing its F-15C/D with upgraded F-16!

http://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/the-air-force-considers-retiring-the-f-15c-d-for-the-f-1793560213

This is from just a couple of months ago, which is much more recent than what Chief of Staff Gen. Mark A. Welsh III had suggested a year ago about the F-35 replacing the F-16.

http://www.f-16.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=50035&p=345888

Your theory of countries with offensive power needing the F-22 is only "could've would've should've" according to you, but it's not what they're thinking or advertising as you suggested.

This was exactly my point. The propaganda was F-35 can replace the F-15. But the air forces's actions speak otherwise. That's why most of the earlier news has been propaganda, mainly to cover up mistakes.

Now, what's the point switching the F-35 with the F-16? Are they going to actually buy more F-16s? The USAF has only become more and more desperate. They underestimated their adversaries. But their actions demonstrate that their propaganda machinery has failed.

My friend, you can't be serious? You're making the assumption that while every other 4th gen aircraft will be improving through time and their respective MLU's, at the same time you're predicting (more like assuming) the F-35 will be sitting there turning into an obsolete duck. Do you realize how nuts that is? Some of the stuff you say makes sense, even though much of it is prediction, but statements like this are outrageous predictions, with all due respect.

The F-35 development went into a death spiral. That's why all of its development pushed forward. So while 4th gen aircraft are going to be upgraded to the point where it can even counter the F-35, the F-35 will get a modernized version only after 2035. It means MLU and more advanced version will only be available after that time. It's not a prediction, this is stuff you can see based on their own releases.

I didn't say they will become obsolete. My point is they will be as capable as an upgraded 4th gen jet.

Funny because a couple of months later and from the same source, they're now considering getting more F-35's and particularly the F-35B STOVL to replace their older (1979) F-15's.
This is from a few weeks ago, so well updated info.

"Israel's initial requirement was for 75 F-35s, and the need to replace older Boeing F-15 fighters – the oldest of which were delivered in 1976 – is becoming a high-priority issue."

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/israel-weighing-interest-in-stovl-variant-f-35-439959/

Yeah, they are looking at the STOVL version. Any air force/navy with half a brain should definitely take a look at the STOVL version, it's really good. Much better than the F-35A and C in many ways. This is particularly important for Israel which has no strategic depth. A combination of F-35Bs and Ospreys is a major game changer, you can create an air base anywhere you want.

But then they are looking for more F-15s for the express reason that they need greater range and more payload. They are not replacing the F-15s with F-35s yet. They want to buy more F-15s. They are replacing their F-16s instead, they have 200+ of these jets.

https://tacairnet.com/2017/03/09/is...ings-most-advanced-version-of-the-f-15-eagle/
There are no planned successors to the F-15 Eagles and F-15I Ra’ams (essentially modified F-15E Strike Eagles) that the IAF currently operates in the air superiority and strike roles, however, and that’s probably where the push for newer, updated F-15s come in.

We are yet to see what the Israelis will do about the old F-15s. But it's something they need to worry about after many years.

So who the heck knows what they're doing and either way, what they do doesn't affect the overall F-35's position in the global aspect of military aviation and particularly how the USAF will be operating them.

The USAF won't operate with them.

There is so much they are working on such as Eagle Passive Active Warning Survivability System (EPAWSS) for the F-15E EW suite and to say they're 15 years behind and then simply suggest that only the Israelis have figured it out by adding their own systems on their F-35's and those will be the only worthy ones while every one else's -- including the USAF/USN/USMC won't......is really not reality. Maybe even a little India/Israel bias?

Here you go:
http://aviationweek.com/awin/israel-us-agree-450-million-f-35-ew-work
“We think the stealth protection will be good for 5-10 years, but the aircraft will be in service for 30-40 years, so we need EW capabilities [on the F-35] that can be rapidly improved,” a senior Israeli air force (IAF) official tells Aviation Week. “The basic F-35 design is OK. We can make do with adding integrated software.”

Why is it that some air forces can speak the truth, while with others we need to witness their actions only?

The US has been well on top of EW please don't be fooled by generals using the old line of being far behind the Russians or Europeans as we all know these are lobbying tactics for more funding.

No, it's not. Lobbying tactics ask for more aircraft, not for technologies. Getting technologies is the Pentagon's job because it's their responsibility. They were the ones who decided not to pursue them.

That's why all of the EW suites in the new jets are British. American-British, but British nonetheless, from BAE.

Gallium Nitrate (GaN) All-Aspect/Full Spectrum Next Generation Jammer (NGJ) by Raytheon.

It's not a self protection suite. Most of the EW examples you put up are not workable in a fight. They are stand off models. That's why they are so big in the first place. Meaning, you stay far, far away and use them outside the range of SAMs.

You proved the F-35's weakness with this image alone.

This was my point. The F-35 still requires support. Stealth was advertised as a silver bullet, and then the USAF corrected that. Now they are saying they need a lot of F-35s, as many as 8, to do the same mission that only needed 2 F-22s.

 

[Jinn Baba]

One of the most hyped weapon systems ever produced.
Oh wait a minute forgot tejas. So second most hyped weapon system ever produced.

You forgot Brahmos

 

[jhungary]

Many F-15Cs are to be replaced by the F-35. You can be assured the F-15Es will only go after F-15Cs. Some F-15Cs can be pushed to 2040, but there's not going to be many of those.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/a...ons-for-replacement-of-boeing-f-15e-s-380233/
"There are no plans to replace the F-15E for the foreseeable future," the USAF says. "It is true that the F-15E, like all of our legacy aircraft, are accumulating more flight time than used to be typical, but given current fiscal realities, the AF [air force] fleet will continue to age well past the point at which they would have been replaced in pre-Desert Storm days."

In fact, the delays have been so bad that there's even talk of replacing some of the F-15Cs with upgraded F-16s.
http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...-15c-eagle-and-replace-it-with-upgraded-f-16s

The original plan called for the F-22As to replace all the F-15C/Ds. And the FB-22 to replace the F-15E after 15 years or so.



It only supports my argument.

F-15 - 450
F-22 - 183... Difference = -250

F-16 - 1100+
A-10 - 300
F-35 - 1750+... Difference = +350

You can see where it's going.

No, The F-35 were never a replacement for F-15C from the drawing board to the actual production stage, it were always to replace All Variant of F-16, F-15E, A-10 in the US Air Force, FA-18E/F, FA-18 A/B/C/D, AV-8B in the Navy and Marine.

The number you provided is way off too. According to the US Military Source

F-15C - 197 (USAF + USCAP)
F-16 (all) - 1300-1600 (700+ active Air Force, 500+ (unknown) Air Force Reserve + ANG, 80 Civil Air Patrol, a few in NASA, USN)
F-15E - 213 (USAF)
A-10 - 283 (USAF, USANG)
F-18 Hornet - 314 (USN/USMC)
F-18E/F Super Hornet + Growler - 342 (SH) + 113 (G)

F-22 - 187 + 9 which is roughly the same number of F-15C

If you put the number of F-16 + F-15E + A-10 you will get 1300 + 213 + 283 which is 1896,

USAF planned to buy 1763 F-35A while the navy planned to buy which is roughly the same amount than the service F-16 and F-15E and A-10 combine, US Navy/Marine planned to buy 340 US F-35B and 340 F-35C which is roughly the number of Hornet and Super Hornet they are replacing.

There are at no time, US Air Force wanted to replace F-15C with F-35, the last Legacy Eagle will be take out of service in 2020, which mean they are not to be replaced with F-35 in any form (by then there are only about 600-7000 F-35)

And the reason why you calculation favour you is because you did not count the F-15E on your number, where you count them toward F-15 in general.

The reason why US Air Force have problem replacing F-15E and F-15C is because the F-35 Project is delayed. They were never to replace F-15C, in fact, the original requirement for F-22 in 1990 is to replace F-15C 1 to 1, but the F-22 cannot reach that number because it's too expensive at that time and no one actually flying anything better than a F-15C until 2000s. Which mean they can scale back F-22 production and replacing it with newer F-15C which was build in the 90s. Those F-15C, which is currently still in service, is to be replaced by 6th Gen Fighter somewhere in 2030.

That's exactly the opposite of what the USAF is going to do now. You have Robert Gates to blame for that. The thing is the Pentagon underestimated the Chinese really, really badly.

Wrong, the Chinese still have a number of year (a decade + to be exact) to have any meaningful number of J-20, or J-31 (If the Chinese can produce it at all), US did not, and never did uses F-16 to do F-15C job, F-16 can fight Air to Air, but they are not air superiority fighter, yes, there are sometime F-16 need to send to do CAP but that does not mean they are replacing F-15C with F-16, they are to fill the gap when F-15C they need is undergoing service.

Yeah, but there are too few F-22s. This is more of a problem for Japan, Israel and Turkey. The US is well on its way to get a F-22 successor by 2028. The other three need an F-22 equivalent at the minimum.

Why would there be very few F-22? The F-16 is not a stealth fighter, they are legacy, the use of Stealth is to replace large number of squadron of F-16 to a smaller but less detectable F-35, the need for 500 F-15 to escort F-16 is not needed in the USAF, because most F-35 can survive on their own in deep strike mission. That is the same way why F-4 (3rd gen Air Superiority Fighter) have about twice to Thrice the number of F-15C they have at hand. That's because the same thing applies, you don't need that much F-15 to escort F-16 because F-16 is a more mature platform than F-5 in the 60s.

Yup. But until 2035, the F-35 will have to pick up the air superiority slack until the PCA is ready to take over.

Again, why? by 2035, the atmosphere is more or less the same than now in 2017, you need to think, how many country would have 5th gen fighter by then, and how many country would have any meaningful number of 5th Gen fighter? Chinese is the one that being the closest, but J-20 are said to have IOC Combat deployment in 2025, so how many J-20 can Chinese made between 2025 to 2035? The problem is, between then, the number of F-35 would still be ahead, WAY AHEAD of any country's 5th Gen development. And the mission for F-35 is the same, because there aren't that many 5th gen air superiority fighter to deal with in that time frame, by the time J-20 become a mature platform, the Chinese would still be relying on their legacy jet (J-10, J-11, J-15, J-16) the US would either have a functioning 6th Gen aircraft in the pipeline, or enough upgraded F-35 to hold the fort. That is something going to happen.

The F-35 is still not maturing, which mean they can be adapted with 6th gen technology, that is the reason why F-35 is paying off replacing F-16, F-15E, and A-10[/QUOTE]

 

[randomradio]

No, The F-35 were never a replacement for F-15C from the drawing board to the actual production stage, it were always to replace All Variant of F-16, F-15E, A-10 in the US Air Force, FA-18E/F, FA-18 A/B/C/D, AV-8B in the Navy and Marine.

The number you provided is way off too. According to the US Military Source

F-15C - 197 (USAF + USCAP)
F-16 (all) - 1300-1600 (700+ active Air Force, 500+ (unknown) Air Force Reserve + ANG, 80 Civil Air Patrol, a few in NASA, USN)
F-15E - 213 (USAF)
A-10 - 283 (USAF, USANG)
F-18 Hornet - 314 (USN/USMC)
F-18E/F Super Hornet + Growler - 342 (SH) + 113 (G)

F-22 - 187 + 9 which is roughly the same number of F-15C

If you put the number of F-16 + F-15E + A-10 you will get 1300 + 213 + 283 which is 1896,

USAF planned to buy 1763 F-35A while the navy planned to buy which is roughly the same amount than the service F-16 and F-15E and A-10 combine, US Navy/Marine planned to buy 340 US F-35B and 340 F-35C which is roughly the number of Hornet and Super Hornet they are replacing.

There are at no time, US Air Force wanted to replace F-15C with F-35, the last Legacy Eagle will be take out of service in 2020, which mean they are not to be replaced with F-35 in any form (by then there are only about 600-7000 F-35)

And the reason why you calculation favour you is because you did not count the F-15E on your number, where you count them toward F-15 in general.

The F-35 will not replace the F-15E. Maybe a modernized F-35 after 2035, but not the current version.

The F-22s were supposed to be 350, in order to replace all the F-15C, and that didn't happen. The current numbers are F-22+F-15 instead of all F-22s.

But...
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/03/28/politics/us-air-force-f-15-eagles-retire/index.html
The plan would include replacing 236 F-15C and D models by dipping into the Air Force's inventory of nearly 1,200 F-16s.

Now they are talking about replacing the F-15CD with F-16s. This is a new cost cutting plan. Better than replacing the F-15CD with the F-35 IMHO, cheaper.

because most F-35 can survive on their own in deep strike mission.

This is what's been miscalculated. The current generation of F-35s will have to rely on the Growler or equivalent for EW support.

Again, why? by 2035, the atmosphere is more or less the same than now in 2017, you need to think, how many country would have 5th gen fighter by then, and how many country would have any meaningful number of 5th Gen fighter? Chinese is the one that being the closest, but J-20 are said to have IOC Combat deployment in 2025, so how many J-20 can Chinese made between 2025 to 2035? The problem is, between then, the number of F-35 would still be ahead, WAY AHEAD of any country's 5th Gen development. And the mission for F-35 is the same, because there aren't that many 5th gen air superiority fighter to deal with in that time frame, by the time J-20 become a mature platform, the Chinese would still be relying on their legacy jet (J-10, J-11, J-15, J-16) the US would either have a functioning 6th Gen aircraft in the pipeline, or enough upgraded F-35 to hold the fort. That is something going to happen.

Yes. The head start and the numbers is the only place where the US is ahead right now. That's why I consider the post 2030 period to be the most dangerous for the US.

This is what I told Gambit too. That the US can make do with the F-35 until 2030, but after that the US will have a peer adversary. Which means after 2030, neither the F-22 nor the F-35 will ensure air superiority. This has been echoed in the US Air Superiority 2030 report as well. Think about it, they will probably have 1000+ F-35s, but they can't ensure air superiority, that's saying something. Having dominance and then being reduced to being on par is a pretty big downgrade.

But it's going to be a huge problem right away if the legacy jets manage to achieve stealth through other means. If the legacy jets can hide themselves from the F-35's radar electronically, similar to Rafale, then...

This is something to think about. Dassault talking about the Rafale:
Of course we are in areas somewhat confidential, but we can say that the front view signature of a Rafale is the signature of a sparrow.

Not to mention, we are now seeing the proliferation of radars that are capable of detecting the F-35 from long range.

A legacy aircraft may soon be able to hide itself better than the F-35 can and will be able to see the F-35 at the same time. Do you see the miscalculation?

 

[jhungary]

The F-35 will not replace the F-15E. Maybe a modernized F-35 after 2035, but not the current version.

The F-22s were supposed to be 350, in order to replace all the F-15C, and that didn't happen. The current numbers are F-22+F-15 instead of all F-22s.

But...
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/03/28/politics/us-air-force-f-15-eagles-retire/index.html
The plan would include replacing 236 F-15C and D models by dipping into the Air Force's inventory of nearly 1,200 F-16s.

Now they are talking about replacing the F-15CD with F-16s. This is a new cost cutting plan. Better than replacing the F-15CD with the F-35 IMHO, cheaper.

I never said F-35 were to replace F-15E, I said, F-35 was DESIGNED to replace F-15E in mind, looking at the number

The fact that F-35 is delayed is responsible to stop gap option world wild, like how US return MLU F-15E and A-10 into service and US Navy ordered more F-18E.F and Growler as well as the RAAF decision to order 24 F-18E/F/G to act as a stop gap.

F-16 can not be replace F-15C, yes, there are some similiarity and until 6th Gen Aircraft arrive, there are no replacement for F-15C. But F-35 will eveutally take over the job of F-15E, that is for sure.

This is what's been miscalculated. The current generation of F-35s will have to rely on the Growler or equivalent for EW support.

How do you know? Did you have Top Secret classification to access play book inside USAF? I have TS/SCI clearance and I don't know about this, how do you know current F-35 would require EW support when F-35 itself is a EW platform?

There are no authorise journal and research related to the actual capability of F-35, so unless you are in the team of LM developing F-35 or have TS/SCI class 4 Clearance where the Chief of Staff of the Air Force hold, you wouldn't know how F-35 perform in reality. And there are supporting document from LM stating F-35 can be use as a EW platform.

Yes. The head start and the numbers is the only place where the US is ahead right now. That's why I consider the post 2030 period to be the most dangerous for the US.

This is what I told Gambit too. That the US can make do with the F-35 until 2030, but after that the US will have a peer adversary. Which means after 2030, neither the F-22 nor the F-35 will ensure air superiority. This has been echoed in the US Air Superiority 2030 report as well. Think about it, they will probably have 1000+ F-35s, but they can't ensure air superiority, that's saying something. Having dominance and then being reduced to being on par is a pretty big downgrade.

But it's going to be a huge problem right away if the legacy jets manage to achieve stealth through other means. If the legacy jets can hide themselves from the F-35's radar electronically, similar to Rafale, then...

This is something to think about. Dassault talking about the Rafale:
Of course we are in areas somewhat confidential, but we can say that the front view signature of a Rafale is the signature of a sparrow.

Not to mention, we are now seeing the proliferation of radars that are capable of detecting the F-35 from long range.

The problem is, from now til 2030, there are several upgrade for F-35 in the pipeline and there are going to be 6th Gen Tec retrofit into F-35, which mean when the F-35 come out to face the 5th Gen platform around the world, F35 would be a upgraded version against the hot off the production untested version of 5th gen jet Russia or Chinese have to offer.

I don't think you grasped the idea on how much TIME gave F-35 the advantage. You cannot possibly think the entry production version of any aircraft is the best of that variant, you need time to test and evaluate a platform. Take M16 for an example. M16 have been used and tested for the last 40 years, how much upgrade did M16 get to make it to today M4A1 SOCOM Mod 1 edition? Aircraft wise, there are a lot of upgrade from F-15, F-16 and F-18 over the years, it made it harder to kill because the Air Force have adapted to combat using the generation older and then uses upgrade to make it better, let say for argument sake, F-35 now 25% behind J-20 when they were deploy in number in 2020s, by the time it hit 2030, the "gap" is not going to be 25% because F-35 have been around already for 10 years, and they will have another 5 to make it better to face J-20, on the other hand, all, I MEANT ALL, other 5th Gen fighter is an unknown, nobody have field any of them (J-20, PAKFA, F-3 and so on) to have any meaningful data complied, this 20 years gap gave the US a long lead that none of the other country can achieve.

Another thing is, Stealth is not a new concept for the USAF, you think USAF does not already have system that can defeat stealth? Or you are supposing that they did not work on it since 1990s when they started fielding F117 or F-22 stealth Aircraft. The problem is that the earlier you get a matured platform, the earlier you can start anti-stealth technology, US achieved that in 1990 with the F-22, which mean they already have 20 years (may be more) research on stealth as to how to improve it and how to defeat it. F-35 is only reaping the result of F-22, which mean whatever they make up in that 20 years with F-22, they can simply apply them in F-35.

So, time factor is enormous, which something you don't seems to appreciated.

A legacy aircraft may soon be able to hide itself better than the F-35 can and will be able to see the F-35 at the same time. Do you see the miscalculation?

Again, how do you know? I have TS/SCI clearance and I don't know how F-35 do, you can tell me by the look of some Flight video? Have you ever even saw a F-35 in your life? How do you know 4th Gen Aircraft can hide from F-35 when you do not know what F-35 can and cannot do?

I am sorry, but this is more like BS statement than anything of value, I am not going to discuss this with you.

 

[randomradio]

How do you know? Did you have Top Secret classification to access play book inside USAF? I have TS/SCI clearance and I don't know about this, how do you know current F-35 would require EW support when F-35 itself is a EW platform?

It's not an EW platform. It doesn't even have self-protection capability. All of its jamming capability comes from the radar, which is only in the X band in the forward sector. This is open source information.

I don't think you grasped the idea on how much TIME gave F-35 the advantage. You cannot possibly think the entry production version of any aircraft is the best of that variant, you need time to test and evaluate a platform. Take M16 for an example. M16 have been used and tested for the last 40 years, how much upgrade did M16 get to make it to today M4A1 SOCOM Mod 1 edition? Aircraft wise, there are a lot of upgrade from F-15, F-16 and F-18 over the years, it made it harder to kill because the Air Force have adapted to combat using the generation older and then uses upgrade to make it better, let say for argument sake, F-35 now 25% behind J-20 when they were deploy in number in 2020s, by the time it hit 2030, the "gap" is not going to be 25% because F-35 have been around already for 10 years, and they will have another 5 to make it better to face J-20, on the other hand, all, I MEANT ALL, other 5th Gen fighter is an unknown, nobody have field any of them (J-20, PAKFA, F-3 and so on) to have any meaningful data complied, this 20 years gap gave the US a long lead that none of the other country can achieve.

That's not how it works. Specs matter more. Even if the F-35 has been in service for 15 years the PCA will be better because it will have higher specs. This is all that matters.

Let's assume for a moment the J-20 has the same performance as the F-22 and has the same electronics and stealth as the F-35. Then why will F-35's higher time in operation matter?

But you can actually assume that the J-20 has superior performance than the F-22 and has superior electronics and stealth than the F-35. Among the reasons why the USAF believes both the F-22 and F-35 aren't good enough after 2030.

Another thing is, Stealth is not a new concept for the USAF, you think USAF does not already have system that can defeat stealth? Or you are supposing that they did not work on it since 1990s when they started fielding F117 or F-22 stealth Aircraft. The problem is that the earlier you get a matured platform, the earlier you can start anti-stealth technology, US achieved that in 1990 with the F-22, which mean they already have 20 years (may be more) research on stealth as to how to improve it and how to defeat it. F-35 is only reaping the result of F-22, which mean whatever they make up in that 20 years with F-22, they can simply apply them in F-35.

So, time factor is enormous, which something you don't seems to appreciated.

This is also a poor argument. Prior experience is the reason why there was miscalculation.

This guy has the highest clearance. So why is he such a skeptic?
https://news.usni.org/2015/02/04/cno-greenert-navys-next-fighter-might-not-need-stealth-high-speed

Again, how do you know? I have TS/SCI clearance and I don't know how F-35 do, you can tell me by the look of some Flight video? Have you ever even saw a F-35 in your life? How do you know 4th Gen Aircraft can hide from F-35 when you do not know what F-35 can and cannot do?

I am sorry, but this is more like BS statement than anything of value, I am not going to discuss this with you.

For the simple reason that it is open source. The F-35 doesn't have electronic attack capability except in the X band.

If the Abrams doesn't have a gun barrel, then do you require clearance to know it cannot fire shells? If the M4 doesn't have a mag, do you require clearance to know it cannot fire bullets?

The F-35 doesn't have EA capability (minus X band), you don't need clearance to know it is not an EW aircraft for the same reason. This was revealed by Boeing. The Barracuda doesn't have tranceivers, it only has receivers. That's why the Israelis asked for the addition of an ECM pod.

http://www.businessinsider.in/Boein...mparable-to-the-F-35/articleshow/56648987.cms
The Navy has scheduled the F-35C to eventually carry the advanced EW pod, but the initial generation of F-35s will have to rely on Growlers for EW attacks.

Growlers will also serve in the vital role of EW attack craft, without which the F-35 cannot do its job as a stealth penetrator.

The lack of EA in the F-35 is the reason for the big miscalculation.

 

[jhungary]

It's not an EW platform. It doesn't even have self-protection capability. All of its jamming capability comes from the radar, which is only in the X band in the forward sector. This is open source information.

First of all, just because it is open source, it does not mean it is real, second of all, open source only provide some degree of information, but does it provide the full picture? The people who are talking about it in open source is at best "Guesstimate", just because it said so on the open source that they don't have EW capability beside the X-Band Radar, that does not mean they don't have EW capability, just meant that people who talk about this does not know it exist.

My brother is a Boeing Engineer, and was involved in the X-32 design, even X-32 envisioned with on board EW package (Full package which either at the same level or exceed EF-111 or EA-18G) I would imagine F-35 have similar design.

Back to the point, putting open source information does not mean you know, you are just quoting people who don't know anything about the topic at hand.

That's not how it works. Specs matter more. Even if the F-35 has been in service for 15 years the PCA will be better because it will have higher specs. This is all that matters.

Let's assume for a moment the J-20 has the same performance as the F-22 and has the same electronics and stealth as the F-35. Then why will F-35's higher time in operation matter?

But you can actually assume that the J-20 has superior performance than the F-22 and has superior electronics and stealth than the F-35. Among the reasons why the USAF believes both the F-22 and F-35 aren't good enough after 2030.

But then PCA is not there to replace F-35 now, is it?

And no, you cannot assume J-20 has superior performance than F-22, because there are not much to be known to both aircraft, and the reason why USAF worry about the future is because they are literally decade ahead, but other country are catching up soon. That narrowing of the gap get them worry, not J-20 vs F-22 or F-35, because by 2030, just how many J-20 platform can be produced? Not much, you are talking about 100 to 150 and that's LM level production. By 2030, China and Russia will STILL be rely on their legacy fighter while the US made the transition to full 5th Gen.

However, the technological gap being narrowing is a concern for the US Military. Because at this stage, USAF is about 20 years ahead of China, the next competitor, but by 2030, the gap would only be about 10 or even down to single digit.

This is also a poor argument. Prior experience is the reason why there was miscalculation.

This guy has the highest clearance. So why is he such a skeptic?
https://news.usni.org/2015/02/04/cno-greenert-navys-next-fighter-might-not-need-stealth-high-speed

This is how CNO sees F-35, I would not say he is sceptic, if you bother to read his words, he said the next Gen Navy fighter need not to be stealth but rather speed and payload, that does not mean or translate to he is sceptic about Stealth capability on F-35, in fact in 2013, he said

http://breakingdefense.com/2013/03/cno-adm-greenert-emphasizes-fleets-bright-future-not-budget-c/

By contrast, the CNO sounded more resigned than excited about the Navy piece of the $240 billion F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program, the carrier-launched F-35C. We have to have it, but "the question becomes how [many?] do we buy and how does it integrate into the air wing," Greenert said. "If we bought no Cs, i think that would be very detrimental for the overall program."...

That show his concern is not the capability of F-35, but the Price tag that's goes with, and in 2013, he was reported a 210 millions per aircraft, which we all know this number is not true now. Which mean he was not sceptical about the capability of F-35, he wanted the money to better spend on other program.

At the end of the day, you are talking about something you have no idea, and using your own judgment, which I don't know how you come to the conclusion to begin with.

 

[randomradio]

First of all, just because it is open source, it does not mean it is real, second of all, open source only provide some degree of information, but does it provide the full picture? The people who are talking about it in open source is at best "Guesstimate", just because it said so on the open source that they don't have EW capability beside the X-Band Radar, that does not mean they don't have EW capability, just meant that people who talk about this does not know it exist.

My brother is a Boeing Engineer, and was involved in the X-32 design, even X-32 envisioned with on board EW package (Full package which either at the same level or exceed EF-111 or EA-18G) I would imagine F-35 have similar design.

Back to the point, putting open source information does not mean you know, you are just quoting people who don't know anything about the topic at hand.

Yeah, the F-35 was envisioned with a full EW suite. But the current F-35 doesn't come with it. Not everything that was envisioned becomes true.

The fact is I am quoting people who were involved in the program. The Barracuda was designed by BAE based on the same design as the F-22's EW suite.

And how are Generals involved not know anything about their primary equipment? I have quoted General Mike Hostage who has 4000+ hours air time and is the commander of the Air Combat Command, the USAF's largest and most important command. How is this guy ignorant?

Anyway, if you successfully jam X band, then you are reducing the enemy's capability significantly. The F-35 was definitely armed to beat X band, there's no doubt about that. This capability should become available by Block 4.

Make what you can of this statement about the Rafale.
http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/iaf-chief-dhanoa-flies-rafale-jet-in-france/1/1005405.html
The Rafale combat aircraft will come with various India- specific modifications including Israeli helmet mounted displays, radar warning receivers and low band jammers, among others.

So both aircraft do come with a full EW suite, but that doesn't equate to full spectrum EA capability. The two terms are not the same.

But then PCA is not there to replace F-35 now, is it?

You were talking about the time when PCA will be in the picture. And there will also be hundreds of J-20 present.

And no, you cannot assume J-20 has superior performance than F-22, because there are not much to be known to both aircraft,

The very fact that we don't know gives credence to the assumption that the J-20 can either be superior, inferior or at par.

and the reason why USAF worry about the future is because they are literally decade ahead, but other country are catching up soon. That narrowing of the gap get them worry, not J-20 vs F-22 or F-35, because by 2030, just how many J-20 platform can be produced? Not much, you are talking about 100 to 150 and that's LM level production. By 2030, China and Russia will STILL be rely on their legacy fighter while the US made the transition to full 5th Gen.

They are catching up with the J-20 and PAK FA. You may have 1500 jets by 2030 while the Russians or Chinese may have only 500 each. But if those 500 jets are better than what you have in your inventory, then most engagements will favour them, not you.

However, the technological gap being narrowing is a concern for the US Military. Because at this stage, USAF is about 20 years ahead of China, the next competitor, but by 2030, the gap would only be about 10 or even down to single digit.

That's isn't what the 2030 document was talking about. The report assumed that the F-22 and F-35 are no longer on par.

Take India for example, India's already caught up with the west when it comes to military technology. Our development is now on par with Europe or the US. Today, we are capable of developing technologies at the same level the US can. Meaning, if we start a new program simultaneously with Europe or the US today, we will be on par with them in the future. And China reached this stage 10 years ago.

This is how CNO sees F-35, I would not say he is sceptic, if you bother to read his words, he said the next Gen Navy fighter need not to be stealth but rather speed and payload, that does not mean or translate to he is sceptic about Stealth capability on F-35, in fact in 2013, he said

http://breakingdefense.com/2013/03/cno-adm-greenert-emphasizes-fleets-bright-future-not-budget-c/

By contrast, the CNO sounded more resigned than excited about the Navy piece of the $240 billion F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program, the carrier-launched F-35C. We have to have it, but "the question becomes how [many?] do we buy and how does it integrate into the air wing," Greenert said. "If we bought no Cs, i think that would be very detrimental for the overall program."...

That show his concern is not the capability of F-35, but the Price tag that's goes with, and in 2013, he was reported a 210 millions per aircraft, which we all know this number is not true now. Which mean he was not sceptical about the capability of F-35, he wanted the money to better spend on other program.

The CNO has not criticized the F-35 in the article I quoted. If you put the same technology as the F-35 in a F-16, the F-16 will be an entirely different fighter than what it is today. The F-35 isn't only about stealth. I forgot who but someone important in the US said that 5th gen is more about networking and sensor fusion than stealth. In the article, the CNO has criticized stealth in general.

At the end of the day, you are talking about something you have no idea, and using your own judgment, which I don't know how you come to the conclusion to begin with.

I could say the same of you. Why couldn't he be talking about the F-22 or even the B-2? He was talking about stealth in general and stealth is something he is obviously aware of.

The point is the American concept of stealth that has been tried and tested for decades is slowly coming to an end. Not because others are making stealth aircraft, but that radars and other sensors have caught up with the American stealth.

This is why he says:
https://news.usni.org/2015/02/04/cno-greenert-navys-next-fighter-might-not-need-stealth-high-speed
“It has to have an ability to carry a payload such that it can deploy a spectrum of weapons. It has to be able to acquire access probably by suppressing enemy air defenses, Greenert said.
“Today it’s radar but it might be something more in the future.”