Eyes on $100 billion apparel export by 2030

[UKBengali]

Good job googling. I knew that I can use your expertise here

When South Asian people say 'we will get to middle income soon', they don't mean lower middle income. It is obvious that $4000+ income category is what people mean. Bangladesh is on the verge of moving away from LDC, but it is not on the cusp of crossing $4000 per capita income anytime soon. This is what I had meant. You over zealously presume that others do not know the difference between LDC and income level.

Actually that 4000 US dollar barrier will be breached very soon.

Once BD rebases to same base year as India then its per capita income will jump from 2300 to 2600 US dollars.

We are likely to see 12% nominal growth over this decade minimum(real growth + inflation) and so it would only take till 2026 for this 4000 US dollar threshold to be crossed.

Would BD by 2026 "look" like a middle-income country?

Of course not, as it has done it so quickly in spectacular fashion over the last 20 years with such fast growth and so infrastructure, "accumulated wealth" has not had a chance to catch up with per capita income - expect to wait another 10 years for this.

 

[bluesky]

Would BD by 2026 "look" like a middle-income country?

BD will look like a low-income trapped country even many decades after your 2041. Even a small country like Taiwan exports $200 billion worth of goods to China alone and with only $100 billion in a single textile export idea, you guys dream of becoming a middle-income country by 2030.

 

[Rushd Alam]

Good job googling. I knew that I can use your expertise here

When South Asian people say 'we will get to middle income soon', they don't mean lower middle income. It is obvious that $4000+ income category is what people mean. Bangladesh is on the verge of moving away from LDC, but it is not on the cusp of crossing $4000 per capita income anytime soon. This is what I had meant. You over zealously presume that others do not know the difference between LDC and income level.

I am not your Economic professor marking your grades, just saw something not adding up and told you.

Now you are saying South asian people only considers high middle income as middle income, that statement itself shows ignorance, see I myself also do not know a lot but if I make a mistake I acknowledge it, you should do as well. No one is an top economist here and only laymans posting our comments. I learned a lot from others and also by making mistakes.

You didnt know if there was authority who can define middle income, nothing wrong with not knowing. We all came out smarter.

 

[Wood]

I am not your Economic professor marking your grades, just saw something not adding up and told you.

Now you are saying South asian people only considers high middle income as middle income, that statement itself shows ignorance, see I myself also do not know a lot but if I make a mistake I acknowledge it, you should do as well. No one is an top economist here and only laymans posting our comments. I learned a lot from others and also by making mistakes.

You didnt know if there was authority who can define middle income, nothing wrong with not knowing. We all came out smarter.

Hahaha.. don't be delusional. You are not a professor of anything. Of course people here and in most cases don't consider South Asia as a middle income region. Save your grandiose preaching for yourself

 

[Bilal9]

@lightoftruth

Satyaprakash bhai,

India's textiles exports highest-ever in FY22 at $44.4 bn, says govt​

Fair enough. But I have a couple of points to make (although I am not much of an expert on this industry)

1. India is a far bigger country and should be making much larger exports than BD.
2. As far as I know a large chunk of exports are yarns and fabrics- the employment of labour is much lesser compared to RMG. (Please feel free to correct me if I am wrong as I said I dont know much about this industry)

Regards

High portion of Textile value addition is in assembling apparel (cutting, stitching, downstream further processing e.g. stone wash for jeans etc.) and home textiles such as drapes, comforters, pillowcases etc.

Hope textile export from Bangladesh is growing at a 40% plus rate.

Home Textile export in FY22 grew by 43.28 per cent to $1.62 billion

Home textile, a new player in the export basket, earned $1.62 billion in the FY22 registering a growth of 43.28% from $1.13 billion in FY21

textilefocus.com

Highest value addition is in making tailored garments like suits, jackets which sell for a much higher margin.

Making yarn and weaving fabric does not add value like assembly does.

This is universally known fact.

India and other countries dump low grade yarn and textile fabric to Bangladesh below cost (30% of yarn/textile used in Bangladesh) which gets made into low grade apparel in Bangladesh going to developing countries like those in Africa.

Bangladesh makes around 70% of the high-spec yarn and fabrics locally (backward linkage industry), which makes up the higher grade portion needed for US and EU market apparel production. most of it branded apparel. The reason is that EU and US markets have stringent compliance requirements (effluents, carbon neutrality factors etc.).

Bangladesh was poised to become the highest cotton importing country in the world by 2020, surpassing China. Then covid happened. It still might - someday. But Bangladesh textile mill owners are concentrating on non-cotton spinning now, which is the future trend. Govt. tariff policy is going to help that for sure.

‘Bangladesh to become largest cotton importer by 2020’

Bangladesh will overtake China as the world’s largest importer of cotton within four years, according to Australian Trade and Investment Commission (Austrade), an Australian government body.

us.fashionnetwork.com

Hahaha.. don't be delusional. You are not a professor of anything. Of course people here and in most cases don't consider South Asia as a middle income region. Save your grandiose preaching for yourself

Bhai can we discuss in cool-headed manner and lay off the trigger inducing personal attacks?

 

[Bilal9]

Good job googling. I knew that I can use your expertise here

When South Asian people say 'we will get to middle income soon', they don't mean lower middle income. It is obvious that $4000+ income category is what people mean. Bangladesh is on the verge of moving away from LDC, but it is not on the cusp of crossing $4000 per capita income anytime soon. This is what I had meant. You over zealously presume that others do not know the difference between LDC and income level.

OK good point, now let's look at what has already happened. I actually have stopped jumping up and down at India's dipping nominal GDP for now. It could be a blip or it could not.

If you see the Bangladesh GDP per capita nominal figure in 2013 (just 9 years ago), it was $1000 (roughly 65% that of India). Which means in 9 years it has slowly but steadily reached 2.5 times that figure (as proven by Bangladeshi posters in this thread).

Not saying another 9 years (by 2031) will turn it into another 2.5X figure, but it may reasonably double to $5000 GDP per capita nominal, everything else being constant. This is a very conservative scenario.

Actual rise of GDP per capita nominal likely will be greater. Or even taper off. But both countries will have similar rises in GDP.

Bangladesh has more room to grow, I'd argue, as the supply of (semi-skilled) labor is infinite for now (and retraining of it from semi-skilled to skilled, because of rising industrialization rates and local export-oriented investments) in Bangladesh continues.

Bangladesh being not FDI dependent (which can be repatriated as seen in India recently in the automotive sector) is actually an advantage and a boon in my opinion. Insulating it from the vagaries of the cycles of global economics.

So this ahammuk (me), totally ignorant in math (and a total economics noob), has shown you what is (likely) possible. Now go ahead and laugh at me and prove me wrong.

 

[Rushd Alam]

Hahaha.. don't be delusional. You are not a professor of anything. Of course people here and in most cases don't consider South Asia as a middle income region. Save your grandiose preaching for yourself

Oh boy!!! Never claim to be a economics professor!!!! If you did not understand what I said, I can maybe try a different language, but please do not misrepresent what I said.


South asian countries have in lower middle income country status for more than a decade, countries like Srilanka, maldives, India, even pakistan has been lower middle income for before 2008.

Who here says south asia is doing worse than sub saharan africa? I never saw this,maybe its your understanding.

You are the one who makes mistakes and when you are shown your mistake, you make " bahana" and deny your mistakes.

Didnt want to shame you but somwtimes people deserve what the act like.

 

[Wood]

Oh boy!!! Never claim to be a economics professor!!!! If you did not understand what I said, I can maybe try a different language, but please do not misrepresent what I said.


South asian countries have in lower middle income country status for more than a decade, countries like Srilanka, maldives, India, even pakistan has been lower middle income for before 2008.

Who here says south asia is doing worse than sub saharan africa? I never saw this,maybe its your understanding.

You are the one who makes mistakes and when you are shown your mistake, you make " bahana" and deny your mistakes.

Didnt want to shame you but somwtimes people deserve what the act like.

Where does Sub Saharan Africa come from?

Don't cry when your superiority complex is disrespected. You are no one who lecture people on the internet. Bangladesh is not seen as a middle income country because people generally consider $4000+ income as middle income. Clinging to empty shell technicality that Bangladesh is a lower-middle-income is irrelevant. There is no misrepresentation anywhere

OK good point, now let's look at what has already happened. I actually have stopped jumping up and down at India's dipping nominal GDP for now. It could be a blip or it could not.

View attachment 859673


If you see the Bangladesh GDP per capita nominal figure in 2013 (just 9 years ago), it was $1000 (roughly 65% that of India). Which means in 9 years it has slowly but steadily reached 2.5 times that figure (as proven by Bangladeshi posters in this thread).

Not saying another 9 years (by 2031) will turn it into another 2.5X figure, but it may reasonably double to $5000 GDP per capita nominal, everything else being constant. This is a very conservative scenario.

Actual rise of GDP per capita nominal likely will be greater. Or even taper off. But both countries will have similar rises in GDP.

Bangladesh has more room to grow, I'd argue, as the supply of (semi-skilled) labor is infinite for now (and retraining of it from semi-skilled to skilled, because of rising industrialization rates and local export-oriented investments) in Bangladesh continues.

Bangladesh being not FDI dependent (which can be repatriated as seen in India recently in the automotive sector) is actually an advantage and a boon in my opinion. Insulating it from the vagaries of the cycles of global economics.

So this ahammuk (me), totally ignorant in math (and a total economics noob), has shown you what is (likely) possible. Now go ahead and laugh at me and prove me wrong.

Don't waste your time by trying to sell predictions as reality. Wait for your chickens to hatch. Come back to post here when Bangladesh crosses the $4000 or $5000 cap. Bragging right now is premature.

 

[UKBengali]

Where does Sub Saharan Africa come from?

Don't cry when your superiority complex is disrespected. You are no one who lecture people on the internet. Bangladesh is not seen as a middle income country because people generally consider $4000+ income as middle income. Clinging to empty shell technicality that Bangladesh is a lower-middle-income is irrelevant. There is no misrepresentation anywhere


Don't waste your time by trying to sell predictions as reality. Wait for your chickens to hatch. Come back to post here when Bangladesh crosses the $4000 or $5000 cap. Bragging right now is premature.

Dude, you are a good poster on the whole but think you are straying into dangerous territory here.

BD is likely to surpass the 4000 US dollars per capita barrier by 2026 at current projected growth rates as its figures still are not using the latest 2015 base-year.

But, like I already stated in an above post it will definitely not "look" middle-income for another 10 years after that.

Both India and BD need another 10 years at least before they are credible "middle-income" countries.

 

[Wood]

Dude, you are a good poster on the whole but think you are straying into dangerous territory here.

BD is likely to surpass the 4000 US dollars per capita barrier by 2026 at current projected growth rates as its figures still are not using the latest 2015 base-year.

What dangerous territory? No threats on the internet please.

Your assertion that BD will cross $4000 by 2026 is just an optimistic prediction. If you count your chickens before they hatch, that is your wish. Don't expect everyone to count along.

 

[UKBengali]

What dangerous territory? No threats on the internet please.

Your assertion that BD will cross $4000 by 2026 is just an optimistic prediction. If you count your chickens before they hatch, that is your wish. Don't expect everyone to count along.

No it is agreed by all major economic forecasters when new 2015 base year is included.

World bank says BD per capita was 2500 US dollars last year as they are using latest base year but IMF are not.

I think you got a bit heated with some of the discussions on this thread.

Hate to see someone like you turn to the dark side.

 

[Wood]

No it is agreed by all major economic forecasters when new 2015 base year is included.

World bank says BD per capita was 2500 US dollars last year as they are using latest base year but IMF are not.

I think you got a bit heated with some of the discussions on this thread.

Hate to see someone like you turn to the dark side.

I'm not heated at all. I don't believe in dark side or bright side. Have you seen me berate BD here? I don't do it because there is nothing to berate BD or any developing country. Some folks here quote what I write and come at me with a pompous attitude. So I indulge them in kind to kill my time. I do enjoy trolling as the next guy after all. I close the browser here and this virtual world and its characters will vanish from existence

As for BD's per capita income, let it bubble to $4000 and then I will feel happy for Bangladeshi people. As I've said before, economic growth of Bangladesh or Sri Lanka will help bootstrap and support India's prosperity inevitably. So my best wishes for BD is not facetious altruism, but based on rational regional interest. However, this does not mean that I have to take your predictions for certainties. Future is always unwritten.

 

[UKBengali]

I'm not heated at all. I don't believe in dark side or bright side. Have you seen me berate BD here? I don't do it because there is nothing to berate BD or any developing country. Some folks here quote what I write and come at me with a pompous attitude. So I indulge them in kind to kill my time. I do enjoy trolling as the next guy after all. I close the browser here and this virtual world and its characters will vanish from existence

As for BD's per capita income, let it bubble to $4000 and then I will feel happy for Bangladeshi people. As I've said before, economic growth of Bangladesh or Sri Lanka will help bootstrap and support India's prosperity inevitably. So my best wishes for BD is not facetious altruism, but based on rational regional interest. However, this does not mean that I have to take your predictions for certainties. Future is always unwritten.

Fair enough but we can make very accurate predictions out to 5 years as IMF regularly does with its bi-annual database publications.

BD is almost certain to hit 4000 US dollar GDP per capita in 2026 but this is nothing to celebrate at all. India most probably will as well by 2028-2029

The country will still "look" like a 3rd world country and the people will not have the "accumulated wealth" to live a "middle income" lifestyle. That will come by the middle of the 2030s.

For some reason you seem to be arguing over nothing as no-one has stated with 100% certainty it will happen but just highly likely. You agree and they agree but for some reason there is a "disagreement" - lol

 

[Bilal9]

Don't waste your time by trying to sell predictions as reality. Wait for your chickens to hatch. Come back to post here when Bangladesh crosses the $4000 or $5000 cap. Bragging right now is premature.

There is no bragging being done, the data came from IMF.

This is simple to compute using growth rate of GDP, which in Bangladesh is 5-7 % depending on year.

In any case, let us see what happens.

 

[Wood]

Fair enough but we can make very accurate predictions out to 5 years as IMF regularly does with its bi-annual database publications.

BD is almost certain to hit 4000 US dollar GDP per capita in 2026 but this is nothing to celebrate at all. India most probably will as well by 2028-2029

The country will still "look" like a 3rd world country and the people will not have the "accumulated wealth" to live a "middle income" lifestyle. That will come by the middle of the 2030s.

For some reason you seem to be arguing over nothing as no-one has stated with 100% certainty it will happen but just highly likely. You agree and they agree but for some reason there is a "disagreement" - lol

Forget about whether India will reach $4000k by 2028 or 2030. Talking about India when we discuss Bangladesh's potential forecast is typical immaturity that leads to prattle in PDF. I will generally stray away from it unless the topic itself is explicitly about comparison.

So now about IMF projections and what not, have they not been wrong before? I think it is possible that we have a recession in the immediate future. Remember reading an Indian news opinion piece that said textile industry could experience a lull because of drop in global demand. The article itself was for India, but a global downturn will not leave Bangladesh unscathed. What will happen then? So yes, I do not think that it is 'almost certain' for Bangladesh to reach $4000k by 2026.