External debt, liabilities hit historic level of $113.8bn

[muhammadhafeezmalik]

Pakistan's external debt and liabilities reached historical level of $113.8 billion at the end of September 2020, due to fresh borrowing from multilateral and bilateral sources on account of public debt.

The latest statistics issued by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) showed that the country’s foreign debt and liabilities continue to grow and surged by $945 million during the first quarter (July-Sep) of this fiscal year (FY21).

Pakistan’s total external debt and liabilities have surged to $113.803 billion as on September 30, 2020 compared to $112.858 billion as on June 30, 2020. However, as percent of GDP, total external debt and liabilities declined by some 4 percent to 41.4 percent in the first quarter of FY21.

The total stocks of debt and liabilities comprises Paris Club, Euro Sukuk global Bond, IMF loan, foreign exchange liabilities; Public Sector Enterprises (PSEs) guaranteed debt and non-guaranteed debt, banks borrowing, non-residential deposits, private sector guaranteed/non-guaranteed debt and foreign exchange liabilities and debt liabilities to direct investors.

The detailed analysis revealed that with 78 percent share, public external debt rose by one percent during the first quarter of this fiscal year. Out of total external debt and liabilities, external public debt stood at $88.938 billion in September 2020 compared to $87.885 billion end of June 2020, depicting an increase of stood at $ 1.053 billion.

During the period under review, Paris Club debt increased from $10.924 billion to $11.203 billion. However, IMF debt was slightly declined by $76 million to $7.604 billion. In addition, Public Sector Enterprises (PSEs) debt also went down from $4.9 billion to $4.77 billion.

The banks' borrowing stood at $4.356 billion and private sector debt at $11.438 billion end of September 2020. Economists said that fresh borrowing from multilateral and commercial sources has increased the external debt burden. During the period under review, the official foreign exchange reserve decreased from $12.55 billion to $12.3 billion.

BR-ePaper | Nov 12, 2020 | Page Front Page 1

epaper.brecorder.com

SBP's Net Reserves:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1325804329681477642

According to this statement of former spokesperson on economy SBP's net reserves are minus $9.452 billion. As per defination of IMF for net reserves, IMF liabilities should not be included in a country's net reserves. Mr. Farrukh Saleem mentioned $6 bn as IMF debt but according to this statement of SBP IMF's liabilities are at $7.604 billion.

 

[AZ1]

Reality

 

[Patriot forever]

I guess people should not forget when looking at these figures that CPEC loan which was previously kept off the books have now been included in official figures on IMF insistence, to improve transparency of overall economy.

I have never seen a more gross misrepresentation of reserves. Forex reserves are just a balance sheet of inflows and outflows over a certain amount of time.
Since we always had a deficit in current account (primary deficit) whatever forex be it in 2016 high levels or in 2020 have always been supplemented by borrowings.
Our overall external debt will continue to grow as long as we will keep rotating the principal amount repayment and acquire new loans to pay for interest. This is called a classic debt trap. We are going in the right direction, if we continue this performance with respect to CAD and keep on improving we can arrest this cycle in next 3-5 years and afterwards work on reducing the overall debt.

 

[ziaulislam]

I guess people should not forget when looking at these figures that CPEC loan which was previously kept off the books have now been included in official figures on IMF insistence, to improve transparency of overall economy.

I have never seen a more gross misrepresentation of reserves. Forex reserves are just a balance sheet of inflows and outflows over a certain amount of time.
Since we always had a deficit in current account (primary deficit) whatever forex be it in 2016 high levels or in 2020 have always been supplemented by borrowings.
Our overall external debt will continue to grow as long as we will keep rotating the principal amount repayment and acquire new loans to pay for interest. This is called a classic debt trap. We are going in the right direction, if we continue this performance with respect to CAD and keep on improving we can arrest this cycle in next 3-5 years and afterwards work on reducing the overall debt.

As long as you debt to gdp ratio remains around 60% and CAD remains less then 2% and inflation greater then 4 but less then 6 with interest rates around 7-8% you should be fine on macroeconomics

Pakistan problem is every govt in their last two years drops inflation & interest rates artificially to create fiscal space for spending to achieve growth which is unsustainable ..putting fuel on fire we also end up printing fake notes(state bank lending) which leads to CAD & ultimately crashing..

The trajedy is that common people like this manipulation and hence why nawaz sharif is so popular
I like your optimism but nawaz or zardari will be back and will do the same as they have done in last 35 yrs

 

[muhammadhafeezmalik]

I guess people should not forget when looking at these figures that CPEC loan which was previously kept off the books have now been included in official figures on IMF insistence, to improve transparency of overall economy.

I have never seen a more gross misrepresentation of reserves. Forex reserves are just a balance sheet of inflows and outflows over a certain amount of time.
Since we always had a deficit in current account (primary deficit) whatever forex be it in 2016 high levels or in 2020 have always been supplemented by borrowings.
Our overall external debt will continue to grow as long as we will keep rotating the principal amount repayment and acquire new loans to pay for interest. This is called a classic debt trap. We are going in the right direction, if we continue this performance with respect to CAD and keep on improving we can arrest this cycle in next 3-5 years and afterwards work on reducing the overall debt.

CPEC loan has not included in books as well as KSA, UAE deposits and deferment payment for oil is also not included in liabilities' statement.

 

[Patriot forever]

CPEC loan has not included in books as well as KSA, UAE deposits and deferment payment for oil is also not included in liabilities' statement.

View attachment 687723

It's all there if you know where to look. CPEC money flows in the form of FDI, soft loans and commercial loans. UAE and KSA in central bank deposits.

 

[Rafeh]

Pakistan debt according to State bank of Pakistan was roughly 110 Billion USD (in July 2020 report, see below). It includes all CPEC, Gulf deposits and everything else. Including those loan under CPEC that Pakistan never have to pay back (the non-guaranteed ones). Since these are "build operate" basis. Most CPEC comes under that build and operate basis including many motorways, almost all energy and power plants and so on (e.g. Toll collection pays off the loan from Motorways etc.). Total CPEC payable loan was around 8.7 billion USD (payable over 20 to 25 years).

CPEC loan also has one of the lowest interest rate on the planet roughly 2 or 3 percent. Rest of CPEC is build and operate basis. Please don't ask me, google yourself (or ask people in authority).

Equally importantly the following official state bank of Pakistan statements clearly says:

"External liabilities include Central bank deposits, SWAPS, Allocation of SDR and Non resident LCY deposits with central". The deposits includes Gulf countries deposits.

SBP is NOT insane to not include CPEC loans. Where it says, External debt, that includes commerical loans from chinese goverment and bank loans regarding CPEC. Our worse loans are from western countries which are near 100 billion dollars. They also have huge interest rate at times as high as 10 to 11% or even higher. That is our debt trap by western nations.

Below Official state bank Statement:

Only around 1% of Pakistani pay taxes.

Most tax collected per head is from Islamabad where one million pay over 200 billion rupees in taxes.

Most tax comes from Karachi roughly over 550 billion from 25 million of so people. However this tax includes on import and exports as well as tax on earnings from Karachi stock exchange. Meaning since most importers/exporters are outside of Karachi and as well as the investors in KSE are from throughout Pakistan (which can be even from overseas) actual tax collection per head from Karachi is lower than often projected. Same way tax collection from Lahore is low and rest of Pakistani cities including those in KP and elsewhere also pay very little tax. Plain English: No body pays taxes in Pakistan that they should.

All this makes Pakistan government poor. The positive side of that is that Pakistani people are rich in a sense that most of our economy is totally unregulated. Which includes unregulated exports of goods and services. For example software export outside of state bank may be closer to 4 to 5 billion. while via official banking channel is less than 1 billion dollars.

One might ask how does that works. That's simple say I sell a set of software to someone overseas. They are told to deposit in a bank in UAE where funds are kept and transferred using unofficial and other illegal channels to Pakistan if needed. otherwise money stays there (there is enough profit margin). Such transaction are never registered by state banks. Same way multi billion dollars worth of goods are purchased involving afganistan which often end up in Pakistan without being registered with state bank as "pakistani imports or exports".

The point is a lot of import and export and other business transaction are kept outside of state bank (or at least their major portion, to save on taxes and duties). Same is done with iran, india and with China. Most Pakistani businessmen have overseas bank accounts. All transactions are done via those banks. Money moves from overseass to overseas. State bank figures do not therefore reflect actual Pakistan GDP nor GDP growth.

Therefore Pakistan GDP growth and actual GDP is far higher than calculated based on Official figures. Even though 26 percent of Pakistanis live below poverty line. Over 100 million have quite good life, the so callled middle class. Millions are extremely rich.

Pakistan needs to broaden tax collection and close down illegal channels to grow further and have a well funded government system.

Even though india tried to harm us by using FATF, it benefits us in the long term as it will end up closing down those illegal channels increasing government earnings which will allow us to increase civilian and defense spending ranging from infra-structure/goods, industry to R&D fueling local industry helping Pakistan to rise much faster than otherwise (thank you enemies of pakistan including india).

Bureaucracy is the biggest hurdle in business now as thanks to CPEC infra-structure is being addressed. Bureaucratic hurdles are being resolved now including introduction of one window business operations.

Pakistan economy will pick up once one window business approval system kicks off as Bajawa has done some work in that direction. Furthermore, gradually from 2022 to 2027 we should expect ever increasing relocation of Chinese industry to Pakistan (once industrial zones are complete). That' inevitable.

Eventually Pakistan will hit extremely high GDP growth in coming years. Then everyone including Gulf nations to Turkey will be investing in Pakistan as well as investment coming from Russia, Europe and perhaps even from US private sector (despite indian noise).

Pakistan will be doing great. Little patient is needed. We are in transition phase now. Good things take time.

I am apolitical meaning I am not with any party personally.

I just wanted to point out few things, the positive side of Pakistan.

 

[VCheng]

Only around 1% of Pakistani pay taxes.

Most tax collected per head is from Islamabad where one million pay over 200 billion rupees in taxes.

Most tax comes from Karachi roughly over 550 billion from 25 million of so people. However this tax includes on import and exports as well as tax on earnings from Karachi stock exchange. Meaning since most importers/exporters are outside of Karachi and as well as the investors in KSE are from throughout Pakistan (which can be even from overseas) actual tax collection per head from Karachi is lower than often projected. Same way tax collection from Lahore is low and rest of Pakistani cities including those in KP and elsewhere also pay very little tax. Plain English: No body pays taxes in Pakistan that they should.

Incorrect. Only a small percentage of Pakistani pay direct income tax, but almost everyone pays a lot of indirect taxes in a highly regressive way.

 

[Patriot forever]

Pakistan debt according to State bank of Pakistan was roughly 110 Billion USD (in July 2020 report, see below). It includes all CPEC, Gulf deposits and everything else. Including those loan under CPEC that Pakistan never have to pay back (the non-guaranteed ones). Since these are "built operate" basis. Most CPEC comes under that built and operate basis including many motorways, almost all energy and power plants and so on. Total CPEC payable loan was around 8.7 billion USD (payable over 20 to 25 years).

CPEC loan also has one of the lowest interest rate on the planet roughly 2 or 3 percent. Rest of CPEC is built and operate basis. Please don't ask me, google yourself (or ask people in authority).

Equally importantly the following official state bank of Pakistan statements clearly says:

"External liabilities include Central bank deposits, SWAPS, Allocation of SDR and Non resident LCY deposits with central". The deposits includes Gulf countries deposits.

SBP is NOT insane to not include CPEC loans. Where it says, External debt, that includes commerical loans from chinese goverment and bank loans regarding CPEC. Our worse loans are from western countries which are near 100 billion dollars. They also have huge interest rate at times as high as 10 to 11% or even higher. That is our debt trap by western nations.

Below Official state bank Statement:

View attachment 687726

Only around 1% of Pakistani pay taxes.

Most tax collected per head is from Islamabad where one million pay over 200 billion rupees in taxes.

Most tax comes from Karachi roughly over 550 billion from 25 million of so people. However this tax includes on import and exports as well as tax on earnings from Karachi stock exchange. Meaning since most importers/exporters are outside of Karachi and as well as the investors in KSE are from throughout Pakistan (which can be even from overseas) actual tax collection per head from Karachi is lower than often projected. Same way tax collection from Lahore is low and rest of Pakistani cities including those in KP and elsewhere also pay very little tax. Plain English: No body pays taxes in Pakistan that they should.

All this makes Pakistan government poor. The positive side of that is that Pakistani people are rich in a sense that most of our economy is totally unregulated. Which includes unregulated exports of goods and services. For example software export outside of state bank may be closer to 4 to 5 billion. while via official banking channel is less than 1 billion dollars.

One might ask how does that works. That's simple say I sell a set of software to someone overseas. They are told to deposit in a bank in UAE where funds are kept and transferred using unofficial and other illegal channels to Pakistan if needed. otherwise money stays there (there is enough profit margin). Such transaction are never registered by state banks. Someway multi billion dollars worth of goods are purchased involving afganistan which often end up in Pakistan without being registered with state bank as "pakistani imports or exports".

The point is a lot of import and export and other business transaction are kept outside of state bank (or at least their major portion, to save on taxes and duties). Same is done with iran, india and with China. Most Pakistani businessmen have overseas bank accounts. All transactions are done via those banks. Money moves from overseass to overseas. State bank figures do not therefore reflect actual Pakistan GDP nor GDP growth.

Therefore Pakistan GDP growth and actual GDP is far higher than calculated based on Official figures. Even though 26 percent of Pakistanis live below poverty line. Over 100 million have quite good life, the so callled middle class. Millions are extremely rich.

Pakistan needs to broaden tax collection and close down illegal channels to grow further and have a well funded government system.

Even though india tried to harm us by using FATF, it benefits us in the long term as it will end up closing down those illegal channels increasing government earnings which will allow us to increase civilian and defense spending ranging from infra-structure/goods, industry to R&D fueling local industry helping Pakistan to rise much faster than otherwise (thank you enemies of pakistan including india).

Bureaucracy is the biggest hurdle in business now as thanks to CPEC infra-structure is being addressed. Bureaucratic hurdles are being resolved now including introduction of one window business operations.

Pakistan economy will pick up once one window business approval system kicks off as Bajawa has done some work in that direction. Furthermore, gradually from 2022 to 2027 we should expect ever increasing relocation of Chinese industry to Pakistan. That' inevitable.

Eventually Pakistan will hit extremely high GDP growth in coming years. Then everyone including Gulf nations to Turkey will be investing in Pakistan as well as investment coming from Russia, Europe and perhaps even from US private sector (despite indian noise).

Pakistan will be doing great. Little patient is needed. We are in transition phase now. Good things take time.

I am apolitical meaning I am not with any party personally.

I just wanted to point out few things, the positive side of Pakistan. I won't participate in this discussion any further.

Yes bro you are right in essence but power plants loans are acquired at LIBOR + 4.5%. That is fine but the major problem is return on equity payments which hovers as high as 34% on these plants. (Estimated to be around 11.3 billion in payment) this is where the mismanagement and kickback comes in. Against a sum of around 26 billion (2019 estimate) we will be paying back around 40 billion in the next 20 years. Majority of the differential is not the actual interest amount but the equity payable to investors.

Incorrect. Only a small percentage of Pakistani pay direct income tax, but almost everyone pays a lot of indirect taxes in a highly regressive way.

Yes you are correct but a major chunk of these indirect taxes get lost in bureaucracy due to the deals done under the table by officers. In short even this regressive approach has very little efficiency. That's why the sad state of affairs.
Major reforms and innovation is being tried out by eliminating person to person contact system by system but it will take years to cover the vast spectrum.

 

[VCheng]

Yes you are correct but a major chunk of these indirect taxes get lost in bureaucracy due to the deals done under the table by officers. In short even this regressive approach has very little efficiency. That's why the sad state of affairs.
Major reforms and innovation is being tried out by eliminating person to person contact system by system but it will take years to cover the vast spectrum.

But why blame the public for not paying taxes when the fault to waste what is collected lies elsewhere?

 

[muhammadhafeezmalik]

It's all there if you know where to look. CPEC money flows in the form of FDI, soft loans and commercial loans. UAE and KSA in central bank deposits.

Where is FDI or soft loans in the SBP statement?? $6.5 billion is there for China loans to GOP. commercial loans is entirely different thing.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1277833073250447360

 

[Patriot forever]

Where is FDI or soft loans in the SBP statement?? $6.5 billion is there for China loans to GOP. commercial loans is entirely different thing.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1277833073250447360

FDI is a very small part.

''CPEC is composed of four different types of financing instruments. The first type is called “Investment” where the Chinese firms that are undertaking the infrastructure projects borrow commercial loans with an interest rate between 4-5% The second category is called “Concessional Loans” which are given to the Government of Pakistan at an interest rate of 2-2.5% with a maturity period of 25-30 years. The third category is called “Interest-free loans” which constitute a small proportion of the overall financing and have zero interest payments. The last category is “Grants” which are aimed at improving state capacity. A break-up of the financing arrangement in the overall portfolio and the time series of these financing instruments are given below".

Financing Structure of CPEC - China Pakistan Economic Corridor

Financing Structure of CPEC

cpecinfo.com

 

[Rafeh]

Yes bro you are right in essence but power plants loans are acquired at LIBOR + 4.5%. That is fine but the major problem is return on equity payments which hovers as high as 34% on these plants. (Estimated to be around 11.3 billion in payment) this is where the mismanagement and kickback comes in. Against a sum of around 26 billion (2019 estimate) we will be paying back around 40 billion in the next 20 years. Majority of the differential is not the actual interest amount but the equity payable to investors.

You are right. I did not say that Chinese investors did not want to maximize their earnings. They did. Every businessman does that. Its our fault that we let those deals go through without tough negotiations. Even then however the additional 34% equity payment is spread over 20 years and I think its for only one project and while it does makes electricity a bit more expensive for Pakistani consumers, the cost is still less than Vietnam ( I can't remember the source now). In commercial sector that kind of profit margins are quite common.

Also realize that far higher interest that pakistan pays to western nations on their rather costly loans is paid on annual basis which ends up being far more collectively in just few years than whatever equity we will pay to chinese over the entire lifetime of this particular project.

Therefore I don't think western investors would have given us cheaper deals while keeping the same quality of power plants. Local Pakistani plants are of very old technology and harm environment as well as are labor intensive. They also often add huge additional cost to Pakistan as a whole since many often use imported oil and gas. while that may give consumers electricity few cents cheaper per kilowatt-hour, it does adds to import bill which harms Pakistan in so many other ways due to negative cascaded economic effects.

The important things is that Pakistan will leverage this electric power to increase industrial growth and will learn to create our own plants of the same quality in the future. WE can pay it off overtime in the form of electricity bills since it adds to our economic activity and quality of life unlike other loans of the past which were and are just used to address budget deficit.

Still there is far more scrutiny of CPEC projects now. Chinese profit margins are far more constraint now. WE will have to offer something to make Pakistan an attractive investment place that includes offering healthy profits. We can't expect to pay at the old lower rate for electricity generated from chinese plants which are of world class standard and are unlike those based on old technology that WAPDA and Pakistani private sector uses. These Chinese plants adhere to best standards of environmental emissions for example.

Also CPEC allowed Chinese banks and industry to come to Pakistan which will allow other chinese none CPEC industries to move here since they can now see that

1. Its safe to have industry in Pakistan despite our past huge security problems. Without CPEC they could not have seen it.

2. Pakistan offers very attractive long term investment opportunities which Chinese and other businesses from around the world can benefit from. Its these non-CPEC investments which will make far more differencce in the future. CPEC is just the window.

WE must also consider the economic benefits of CPEC in other ways. In the end, CPEC has added immensely to Pakistan's stability and growth. Without it, Pakistan would have been in the same situation that Lebanon is now (and Lebanon is in extremely hard situation).

At the end Pakistan needed and will still need loans for a while. The source was/is either west or China (with some help from Gulf). Both come with their own pros and cons. China however offered world class and extremely efficient development at relatively cheaper costs compared to say European or american corporations which are extremely expensive to say the least. Western businesses were not willing to invest in Pakistan anyway. So that option never really existed.

We now must focus on attracting Chinese private sector so that Pakistan can earn more than enough to pay off all debt and not just chinese one thanks to resulting industrial growth.In all in all, CPEC has been much better and wise decision for Pakistan.

Incorrect. Only a small percentage of Pakistani pay direct income tax, but almost everyone pays a lot of indirect taxes in a highly regressive way.

I meant direct tax since that shows honesty of a nation's taxpayers. I was just commenting on the sad state of Pakistani people's tax evasion practice.

But why blame the public for not paying taxes when the fault to waste what is collected lies elsewhere?

Very little percentage actually goes to corruption compared to what is spend on defense, education, roads and infra-structures and thousands of other things. In Pakistan most corruption mostly involves other mechanisms (e.g. taking kick backs for contracts rather than directly stealing government's money). Most Pakistani people don't pay direct income taxes while use infra-structure (ranging from roads to electricity) for which they paid very little (mostly via indirect taxes), are defended and get to have a safe country where most get to have what a developing country can offer. Pakistani people even get low income support, subsidized goods and travel and so many other things including health support. How many developing countries offer that. Indians people pay far more taxes and hence despite much greater corruption and inefficiencies have a better economy (yet indian people get very little back from their government).

In Pakistan corruption and inefficient bureaucracy exists since enough tax base does not exists in the first place to create a world class system that prevents corruption. Plus we elected corrupt people throughout our history. That's our fault.

Anyway this discussion is not meaningful unless people who vote for same the people they complain against (while exploiting the same system at the same time), change themselves. Pakistani people have to change themselves before they change the system. That is a gradual process and will take its due course (its a function econnomic growth of a nation it seems).

 

[ziaulislam]

IMO..this thread is stupid
We just borrowed 30b to cover 20b+ of current account deficit and to increase our reserves..

Like what did u guys expected when the current account deficit was 24b$ projected ?

Print dollars? Sorry sharif did print rupees fake printing via state bank lending but even he couldn't print dollars

Now that finally the CAD is +tive we can start talking about foreign loans..how much will they go up beyond 110-115b $

Now if someone doesn't understand this he is either a paid bot or an idiot

 

[Norwegian]

Pakistan's external debt and liabilities reached historical level of $113.8 billion at the end of September 2020, due to fresh borrowing from multilateral and bilateral sources on account of public debt.

The latest statistics issued by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) showed that the country’s foreign debt and liabilities continue to grow and surged by $945 million during the first quarter (July-Sep) of this fiscal year (FY21).

Pakistan’s total external debt and liabilities have surged to $113.803 billion as on September 30, 2020 compared to $112.858 billion as on June 30, 2020. However, as percent of GDP, total external debt and liabilities declined by some 4 percent to 41.4 percent in the first quarter of FY21.

The total stocks of debt and liabilities comprises Paris Club, Euro Sukuk global Bond, IMF loan, foreign exchange liabilities; Public Sector Enterprises (PSEs) guaranteed debt and non-guaranteed debt, banks borrowing, non-residential deposits, private sector guaranteed/non-guaranteed debt and foreign exchange liabilities and debt liabilities to direct investors.

The detailed analysis revealed that with 78 percent share, public external debt rose by one percent during the first quarter of this fiscal year. Out of total external debt and liabilities, external public debt stood at $88.938 billion in September 2020 compared to $87.885 billion end of June 2020, depicting an increase of stood at $ 1.053 billion.

During the period under review, Paris Club debt increased from $10.924 billion to $11.203 billion. However, IMF debt was slightly declined by $76 million to $7.604 billion. In addition, Public Sector Enterprises (PSEs) debt also went down from $4.9 billion to $4.77 billion.

The banks' borrowing stood at $4.356 billion and private sector debt at $11.438 billion end of September 2020. Economists said that fresh borrowing from multilateral and commercial sources has increased the external debt burden. During the period under review, the official foreign exchange reserve decreased from $12.55 billion to $12.3 billion.

BR-ePaper | Nov 12, 2020 | Page Front Page 1

epaper.brecorder.com

SBP's Net Reserves:

View attachment 687677

https://twitter.com/x/status/1325804329681477642

According to this statement of former spokesperson on economy SBP's net reserves are minus $9.452 billion. As per defination of IMF for net reserves, IMF liabilities should not be included in a country's net reserves. Mr. Farrukh Saleem mentioned $6 bn as IMF debt but according to this statement of SBP IMF's liabilities are at $7.604 billion.

What's the news? It was already predicted in 2016

IMO..this thread is stupid
We just borrowed 30b to cover 20b+ of current account deficit and to increase our reserves..

Like what did u guys expected when the current account deficit was 24b$ projected ?

Print dollars? Sorry sharif did print rupees fake printing via state bank lending but even he couldn't print dollars

Now that finally the CAD is +tive we can start talking about foreign loans..how much will they go up beyond 110-115b $

Now if someone doesn't understand this he is either a paid bot or an idiot

Yeah it was already predicted in 2016.