Exports Fall by 45% Despite Modi's 30 Foreign Trips

[bafxet]

Modi has failed to keep the world demand up.

Trade deficit has also narrowed unfortunately.
Trade deficit narrows to $9.77 bn in October | Business Standard News


Nobody buys anything from Intolerant India anymore.

But he will take full credit if things change and exports show a growth.

Anyway, politics aside, his visit must help arrest the steep decline. A drop of 45% is quite substantial. Moreover, if you disect the import figure you will to know that it crude oil and gold which are the main contributor. The difference in others is not quite big.

 

[kawaraj]

India is consumption-driven economy,not export driven.

I have been calling Indian members familiar with econ to facilitate this forum with a breakdown of Indian growth. I don't see any contribution from you guys except bragging narratives.

Export is plummeting, Industrial output is downing, so I imagine your service sector and infra investment are skyrocketing, any numbers?

and even this,
Drop in public, private investments top concerns for growth: Rajan | business | Hindustan Times

So I suppose your average consumption doubled in this fiscal year. Indians become very rich suddenly, is that true?

Numbers do not add up. Modi should explain to people how the 8 percent growth come from to prove his integrity of telling the truth, before too many travels to waste tax money.

 

[Grevion]

I have been calling Indian members familiar with econ to facilitate this forum with a breakdown of Indian growth. I don't see any contribution from you guys except bragging narratives.

Export is plummeting, Industrial output is downing, so I imagine your service sector and infra investment are skyrocketing, any numbers?

and even this,
Drop in public, private investments top concerns for growth: Rajan | business | Hindustan Times

So I suppose your average consumption doubled in this fiscal year. Indians become very rich suddenly, is that true?

Numbers do not add up. Modi should explain to people how the 8 percent growth come from to prove his integrity of telling the truth, before too many travels to waste tax money.

Growth of the GDP does not only depends on exports but it is affected by many factors such as foreign investment+domestic investment and domestic demand+foreign demand(export). Now since the world demand for goods and services is in slump you can see the result in Global economic recession. GDP growth of India is well balance between global+domestic demand unlike China which do have a very strong middle class but manufacturing is the largest contributing sector to their GDP hence their growth was struck by recent 2009 global economic slowdown and even further deteriorated this year because the local manufacturers didn't have enough working capital to start with which was due to investors unwillingness to invest because their was no demand. Chinese domestic consumption wasn't strong enough to carry the growth even when the export were falling.
Same is the case with India as Indian growth was at 5% or below in 2013 because the export weren't good enough and the govt. was too dumbstruck to respond with reforms. The recent data of GDP growth is mainly because the increase in investors interest and the increase in domestic investment plus the FDI. The new govt also introduced some short term reforms which was received positively in the market. India is eyeing domestic consumption and export in the future to help build its economic growth.
Here have a read it's a good article-
India's growth to be consumption driven: Stanchart - The Economic Times

 

[xyxmt]

They think Modi is a Travelling Sales man with a Sales Target

yeah he is only a travelling selfie man

 

[[Bregs]]

There are no concrete economic reforms so far and foreign visit alone won't push exports. trade deficit is mainly because of lowest ever oil prices and not because of any policy changes. Govt has lost the opportunity of pushing through reforms in first 2-3 session of parliaments when it came to power

Now variety of reasons have added up including slower growth in all major economies hence shortfalls in export targets although the commerce minister is competent but not experienced enough to push through local factory reforms including labor laws

 

[My-Analogous]

Dude there is absolutely no relation to the message you quoted and the graph you have posted.

By consumption driven economy, he meant was Indian economy was less dependant on exports, or foreign investments than China is.



Indian exports will recover when the world economy recovers.

I know what is that mean and if you set that parameter then China having more chance to survive b/c it market is bigger and as you say earlier, they have better chance to increase this share compare to India whose economy already penetrate. So my question to you guys that what chances do India have. China have advantage to increase its local market share and hence goods can be consume more where as you guys don't?

Actually, no, both seem about the same.

Exports of goods and services (% of GDP) | Data | Table

Exports of goods and services (% of GDP)

Country name 2011 2012 2013 2014

China 25.5 % 24.2% 23.3% 22.6%

India 24.3% 24.4% 25.2% 23.6%

I know and that is why i stated that sentence.

 

[mpk1988]

The cause was also given in an earlier article. It's simple. A global slump.

 

[My-Analogous]

Growth of the GDP does not only depends on exports but it is affected by many factors such as foreign investment+domestic investment and domestic demand+foreign demand(export). Now since the world demand for goods and services is in slump you can see the result in Global economic recession. GDP growth of India is well balance between global+domestic demand unlike China which do have a very strong middle class but manufacturing is the largest contributing sector to their GDP hence their growth was struck by recent 2009 global economic slowdown and even further deteriorated this year because the local manufacturers didn't have enough working capital to start with which was due to investors unwillingness to invest because their was no demand. Chinese domestic consumption wasn't strong enough to carry the growth even when the export were falling.
Same is the case with India as Indian growth was at 5% or below in 2013 because the export weren't good enough and the govt. was too dumbstruck to respond with reforms. The recent data of GDP growth is mainly because the increase in investors interest and the increase in domestic investment plus the FDI. The new govt also introduced some short term reforms which was received positively in the market. India is eyeing domestic consumption and export in the future to help build its economic growth.
Here have a read it's a good article-
India's growth to be consumption driven: Stanchart - The Economic Times

Mate do you know how thinks work? If you invests something it is not like common way you will get something. Investment i to create new things( like Industries, roads, infrastructures, dams etc) and minimum time to start returning the investment is three years. So how come such big investment increase India grown while it is not mature?. Please explain

There are no concrete economic reforms so far and foreign visit alone won't push exports. trade deficit is mainly because of lowest ever oil prices and not because of any policy changes. Govt has lost the opportunity of pushing through reforms in first 2-3 session of parliaments when it came to power

Now variety of reasons have added up including slower growth in all major economies hence shortfalls in export targets although the commerce minister is competent but not experienced enough to push through local factory reforms including labor laws

Bingo. That's what China did and transform its economy to be more local depended and it will take them 3 to 5 years to do so. As economy is not a child play.

 

[Mr.Nair]

Guest column: Modi magic? India overtakes China, US on FDI front in first half of 2015 - The Economic Times

 

[Shotgunner51]

Guest column: Modi magic? India overtakes China, US on FDI front in first half of 2015 - The Economic Times

That's data from fDi Markets (note the use of "Capex" in reporting), not official FDI.

According to the RBI data, Indian FDI stood at $18.9 billion in the first half of 2015. During the same period, FDI to China was $68.4 billion, FDI to US was $72.1 billion.

Reserve Bank of India - RBI Bulletin
Reserve Bank of India - RBI Bulletin
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/india/foreign-direct-investment
China Foreign Direct Investment | 1997-2015 | Data | Chart | Calendar
United States Foreign Direct Investment | 1994-2015 | Data | Chart​

 

[Echo_419]

A couple month ago, the overall sentiment in India was like "Move Over, China! Now we are THE fastest growing economy in the world", and they made sure the whole world get the message.

Are you serious?

That's data from fDi Markets (note the use of "Capex" in reporting), not official FDI.

According to the RBI data, Indian FDI stood at $18.9 billion in the first half of 2015. During the same period, FDI to China was $68.4 billion, FDI to US was $72.1 billion.

Reserve Bank of India - RBI Bulletin
Reserve Bank of India - RBI Bulletin
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/india/foreign-direct-investment
China Foreign Direct Investment | 1997-2015 | Data | Chart | Calendar
United States Foreign Direct Investment | 1994-2015 | Data | Chart​

It does mentions that in the article
On topic
People who are criticizing Modi are forgetting how he has manager to attract large amounts of FDI,which were unheard of in UPA era

 

[Rangila]

yeah he is only a travelling selfie man

Hey hey.. Modi is "selfie sufficient" man.

 

[Viper0011.]

Congress today sought to take the sheen out of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's frequent foreign tours, alleging India's exports have dropped by a whopping 45 per cent despite him completing 30 foreign visits during his 18-month tenure.

"After 30 foreign visits and another four lined-up, all that Modi has achieved for the nation during his 18 months tenure is a whopping drop of 44.89 per cent in Indian exports, from 280 billion dollars in May 2014 to 154 billion dollars today," Congress spokesman Abhishek Singhvi told reporters.

Something I predicted on here the day Modi was getting worn in!!!! You can take 100 trips but the World has started to see India's internal religious mess started by Modi's supported Hindu fanatics, as a rising religious crap turning into full fledge terrorism on Indian minorities by the Hindu fanatic parties.

No one would want to put their money, or buy products from, where people know minorities get killed because they "eat" different than then Hindu majority. India needs to control her Hindu fanatic parties like BJP, RSS and Shiv Sena (and the likes), otherwise, India's growth will be seriously impacted as its not considered "safe" anymore for investments.

 

[Nilgiri]

I suggest all the butthurt trolls read this first before opening their pie holes:

Indian Economy-News & Updates | Page 350

 

[Dungeness]

That's data from fDi Markets (note the use of "Capex" in reporting), not official FDI.

According to the RBI data, Indian FDI stood at $18.9 billion in the first half of 2015. During the same period, FDI to China was $68.4 billion, FDI to US was $72.1 billion.

Reserve Bank of India - RBI Bulletin
Reserve Bank of India - RBI Bulletin
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/india/foreign-direct-investment
China Foreign Direct Investment | 1997-2015 | Data | Chart | Calendar
United States Foreign Direct Investment | 1994-2015 | Data | Chart​

Modi Magic? They would credit all sunny days to Modi's leadership, and blame all raining days to Congress corruption.