Escalation in the Taiwan strait as the Taiwanese president boldly confirms US troops are present on the Island

[Genghis khan1]

Why is the element of surprise critical in combat and war? You are avoiding the main issue just like the Chinese guys are doing.

I am not avoiding anything, if you are trying to convey a point than be more clear.

 

[_NOBODY_]

Kek.....Taiwan is armed to the teeth.

Taiwan might not seem like it but all the surroundings islands are littered with weapons of different kinds, including decoys.

And China can't attack at will......only at certain times of the year if I'm not wrong.

China's proximity to Taiwan is also a double edged sword.....Taiwan can literally kill 10x its own population if it's attacked.

Even if China wins the naval war and invades, by the time it reaches the shores, it'll have a lot of casualties piled up. Nukes are out of option since fallout will be right on Chinas doorstep and the political, moral and economic consequences to handle after that...

Best bet China has is internal strife/civil war or help from spies/traitors within Taiwan to ease the invasion. People who think it's gonna be a cake walk will need to review the US casualties of the Gulf War and then 10x-100x them in regards to China.

Just my two cents...

I just hope I don't get those retarded replies by the same groups of well known fan boys on here.

Non of these weapons will defend Taiwan, the only thing defending Taiwan is TSMC's silicon shield.

 

[Beast]

Non of these weapons will defend Taiwan, the only thing defending Taiwan is TSMC's silicon shield.

That is why that idiot is banned.

 

[Genghis khan1]

Almost 10 years ago, classified US Intel on Chinese activity. Somehow it was picked up by US press.

"[We believe] the [People's Liberation Army] has been given the new task to be able to conduct a short, sharp war to destroy Japanese forces in the East China Sea following with what can only be expected [as] a seizure of the Senkakus or even southern Ryukyu [islands],"

 

[gambit]

I am not avoiding anything, if you are trying to convey a point than be more clear.

You do not know the answer because you have not done your homework. That is my point.

Everyone would have the standard response: the element of surprise kills more of the enemy. But it is more than that.

If you surprise the enemy and IF you managed to kill more, what it means is the loss of resources for the enemy. The resources here is not just human bodies but also in equipment and time. In war, in order to win, you need at least a 3-1 ratio, even if the enemy is static like in fortification or on an island like in the case of Taiwan.

A New Look at the 3:1 Rule of Combat through Markov Stochastic Lanchester Models on JSTOR

M. Kress, I. Talmor, A New Look at the 3:1 Rule of Combat through Markov Stochastic Lanchester Models, The Journal of the Operational Research Society, Vol. 50, No. 7 (Jul., 1999), pp. 733-744

www.jstor.org

The 3:1 rule of combat states that in order that for the attacker to win the battle, his forces should be at least three times the force of the defender.​

​

If you managed to surprise the enemy, you can reduce that ratio down to 2:1, leaving you with a reserve to take advantage of weaknesses and even gaps in his defense. And if you are truly confident, you can reduce that ratio down to 1:1 or even 1:2, meaning you can be outnumbered but still win.

Let us take the standard 4-ship strike fighter formation. If all four strike fighters managed to hit the same target, that target will most likely be destroyed. But what happens if you lose one strike fighter? Now you have no margin of error. If you lose another fighter, the target will survive and depends on the target, it maybe able to response later. In this case, you failed.

You can apply this %25-30 percent loss prediction against China. All Taiwanese defense have to do is knock out %20-30 of fighters because whatever remaining will not be enough to provide air cover for the invasion fleet.

The same ratio can be applied against ballistic missiles. All Taiwanese defense have to do is either knockout or mislead %20-30 of attacking missiles in order to have enough forces to attack the invasion fleet.

The same ratio can be applied to the invasion fleet itself. All Taiwanese defense have to do is sink or damage %20-30 of the fleet in order to render the invasion insufficient to defeat Taiwanese troops on land.

Once Taiwan is fully informed of an impending invasion fleet launch, the surprise is off. This is where Taiwan and Iraq differs. We have not even touched on the fact that China and Taiwan are essentially technological peers, whereas, Iraq was not US technological peer, that mean you can raise that loss to %30-40 for China. So imagine that 4-ship strike fighter package lost 1.5 aircraft.

Regarding the ballistic missiles...Let us say you launch 10 missiles.

3 - Farm fields
3 - Abandoned shopping mall
2 - Hospitals
1 - Parking lot
1 - Army HQ

Taiwanese defense will defend the hospitals and the Army HQ because they are critical to the war effort. So now in your 10 missiles package, you just lost 3 and the other 7 landed on worthless targets. The reality is that Taiwanese defense will take out more than %30. The invasion fleet cannot launch unless the air threat is cleared over the Strait.

To american, violence and war are the only solution. Chinese civilization why can survive for 3000 years becos we are pragmatic and resourceful.

Sun Tzu

"The greatest victory is that which requires no battle."

Very good, then you can leave Taiwan alone for the next 3000 yrs.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

I have pointed out the many problems for China before, and no one here managed to get around those problems.

First, the weather and tidal patterns in the strait allows a 3-weeks max window to launch an invasion fleet. That means BOTH sides know almost to the day when that fleet must leave.

Second, because the launch window is known, that mean Taiwan, unlike Iraq, will know when the enemy bombardment will begin.

Most people in this forum do not study military history. They study, or thinks they study, things like weapons specs and manpower numbers, and they get erections out of those numbers.

Why is the element of surprise so critical in combat and war? Most people in this forum give one-dimensional answer.

Here's the actual weather in the Taiwan strait every year.

Average wave height from April to September is < 2.5 m. That is not 3 weeks long.

LHDs can launch landing craft even in sea state 4 and conduct flight operations in sea state 5. Sea state 4 is 2.5 m wave height.

More citations for Taiwan straits weather to debunk the 3 weeks theory.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Once Taiwan is fully informed of an impending invasion fleet launch, the surprise is off. This is where Taiwan and Iraq differs. We have not even touched on the fact that China and Taiwan are essentially technological peers, whereas, Iraq was not US technological peer, that mean you can raise that loss to %30-40 for China. So imagine that 4-ship strike fighter package lost 1.5 aircraft.

Regarding the ballistic missiles...Let us say you launch 10 missiles.

3 - Farm fields
3 - Abandoned shopping mall
2 - Hospitals
1 - Parking lot
1 - Army HQ

Taiwanese defense will defend the hospitals and the Army HQ because they are critical to the war effort. So now in your 10 missiles package, you just lost 3 and the other 7 landed on worthless targets. The reality is that Taiwanese defense will take out more than %30. The invasion fleet cannot launch unless the air threat is cleared over the Strait.

China and Taiwan are not technological peers because Taiwan has 0 spaceborne assets, 0 VLS and AESA equipped air defense destroyers, 0 aircraft carriers, 0 5th gen fighters and 0 modern submarines.

That's a funny example you gave. "They'll defend". How? They have 32 SAMs total. 19 of them are MIM-Hawk 23s from the 1960's. By what mechanism are they 'defending' anything?

PLASSF has satellites and drone assets staring at Taiwan 24/7, as well as a GEO satellite staring at Westpac in general. By what mechanism are fields, shopping malls and parking lots going to be confused for real targets?

 

[Beast]

Very good, then you can leave Taiwan alone for the next 3000 yrs.

No ,taiwan will reunited with PRC without a fight.

 

[gambit]

Here's the actual weather in the Taiwan strait every year.

Average wave height from April to September is < 2.5 m. That is not 3 weeks long.

LHDs can launch landing craft even in sea state 4 and conduct flight operations in sea state 5. Sea state 4 is 2.5 m wave height.

More citations for Taiwan straits weather to debunk the 3 weeks theory.

I doubt YOU never knew of such a thing as 'sea state' before you met me on this forum. None of you have until I pointed it out. It is not just merely sea state. Did you forget I pointed out tides at launch sites on mainland China and landing sites on Taiwan? Did you forget I pointed out that it is best to launch at high tide and land at high tide? Now you have to match the tides on both sides. The less options, the narrower the window for an invasion. What else have you conveniently omitted? What else do you think you missed in calculating a massive amphibious operation greater than D-Day? And please do not bring up Hainan. That is like saying just because you have a muzzle loader you know how to operate a machine gun.

But no matter how much you guys on PDF trumpet the PLA, am not here to bully any of you into silence but to inform the many silent readers out there who wonders if there are any alternative for the laymen. And I just gave them what they needed. Now they know how much is involved and what else they do not know, they will also know how truly clueless ALL of you really are.

 

[mike2000 is back]

Clearly you can't read...




If China can hit Taiwan....then Taiwan can hit China too. You think Taiwan is just gonna sit there waiting for the missiles to hit the ground or fall into the ocean??

By the time China launches their barrage, Taiwan will be ready and firing its own too. A military buildup against Taiwan is painfully noticeable.

The Chinese will lose more manpower and civilians no doubt about it. You fanboys can't fathom that since you have never served, talked to someone who has or learned from their experiences.

The things is à war isn't won by the number of casualties suffered by a country. Germany lost far less people during WWII compared to Russia who lost almost 10rimes more but still emerged as one of the winners. (Granted that Germany was fighting US, UK, France etc all at the same time as well ).
In short, I the event of a war between China and Taïwan, the later doesn't stand much of a chance. The best Taïwan military is trained for is to hold the PLA off for as long as possible to give enough time for the US to come to their aid. The Chinese have modernised their navy alot this pas decade alone, and they à still in the middle of this modernisation. So it is becoming even more unbearable for Taiwan with each passing year as the balance of power keep increasing.
Just décades ago the Chinese navy had no real capability to threaten Taïwan per se. Else they would have been embolden to take over the country decades ago, but no things have changed alot, and in a decade from now Taïwan things will look even more desperate desperate Taïwan. The only hope they have in future is to openly let the US building a military base in Taïwan and to sign a mutual defence treaty with them. In short only the US can save them. There's no other option.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

I doubt YOU never knew of such a thing as 'sea state' before you met me on this forum. None of you have until I pointed it out. It is not just merely sea state. Did you forget I pointed out tides at launch sites on mainland China and landing sites on Taiwan? Did you forget I pointed out that it is best to launch at high tide and land at high tide? Now you have to match the tides on both sides. The less options, the narrower the window for an invasion. What else have you conveniently omitted? What else do you think you missed in calculating a massive amphibious operation greater than D-Day? And please do not bring up Hainan. That is like saying just because you have a muzzle loader you know how to operate a machine gun.

But no matter how much you guys on PDF trumpet the PLA, am not here to bully any of you into silence but to inform the many silent readers out there who wonders if there are any alternative for the laymen. And I just gave them what they needed. Now they know how much is involved and what else they do not know, they will also know how truly clueless ALL of you really are.

funny, I don't really remember much of you say. anyhow, thanks for reminding me of Hainan. The Qiongzhou Strait is as wide as the distance from Dover in the UK to Calais in France. Taiwanese forces took 6x more casualties and were completely routed with light infantry landing in wooden boats despite having frigates and destroyers. Hmm. I wonder how well they'd do against AESA and VLS equipped surface combatants, aircraft carriers, modern subs, stealth fighters, 24/7 drone and satellite overwatch and 2000+ ballistic missiles - none of which they have. BTW, you still have no ability to answer the question of "by what mechanism are they going to 'defend' anything against 70x more missiles than they have interceptors".

Remember that the PLA expends 100+ ballistic missiles per year in training and tests alone. Maybe all that training could improve accuracy and battle readiness, and won't hit parking lots or abandoned malls. Perhaps the fact that China also launches ~40 orbital missions per year, equal to the US, and has an equal success rate, means that Chinese rocketry is pretty accurate. Hmm. Meanwhile I wonder how many missile interception tests does Taiwan do with their 1960's air defense? Speaking of which, China trains more in intercepting much more sophisticated missiles than Taiwan does not to mention having 4000+ VLS tubes worth of naval SAMs alone, never mind ground based SAMs or CAP that can shoot cruise missiles. They can attempt to launch a counterattack but it is likely to be intercepted outright - even without accounting for their proven incompetence over and over again with friendly fire, crashing planes into the ground, crashing planes into each other, planes outright going missing, officers defecting by swimming to the mainland and of course, losing the war the first time.

 

[j20blackdragon]

You really think there's only 250 missiles??

So China can intercept 100% of missiles launched??

Number of missiles may not matter...and interception may not be necessary...if all the missiles are flying blind, deaf, and dumb.

Everyone should recall that Iran took down and captured a largely intact RQ-170 in 2011. This was a decade ago. SATCOM links can be jammed, and a drone's GPS system can be spoofed with false coordinates and tricked into thinking they're somewhere else other than where they actually are. I'm willing to bet that the RQ-170 had anti-jam GPS equipment superior to the average cruise missile. It's also important to note that military GPS receivers use the encrypted P(Y)-code GPS signal instead of the civilian one. So does that mean Iran broke through the encryption? What about the internal INS system? How did Iran manage to spoof that? I have no idea, but Iran brought down the stealth drone.

Another thing...note the range of a Russian handheld GPS jammer from 1997.

In 1997 a Russian company offered a handheld four-watt GPS and GLONASS jammer that was effective at ranges of up to 150 to 200 kilometers.

Jammers at dachas add to Russia’s ability to silence GPS - GPS World

A new investigative report by the Russian independent media group “The Project” into luxury dachas owned by high-ranking government officials revealed that

www.gpsworld.com

The aircraft below is a Chinese electronic warfare "theater suppression" aircraft. I think it's a little bigger than a handheld jammer.

Think of this aircraft as the Chinese equivalent to the EC-130H Compass Call. Here's the description from af.mil:

The Block 35 Baseline 1 EC-130H provides the Air Force with additional capabilities to jam communication, Early Warning/Acquisition radar and navigation systems through higher effective radiated power, extended frequency range and insertion of digital signal processing

EC-130H Compass Call

The EC-130H Compass Call is an airborne tactical weapon system using a heavily modified version of the C-130 Hercules airframe.

www.af.mil

 

[Oldman1]

Yes, they don't. Obviously, you don't know Taiwan.

Probably can, we don't know what else Taiwan had in terms of missiles.

 

[MH.Yang]

Probably can, we don't know what else Taiwan had in terms of missiles.

Although Taiwan can make chips, they seriously lack manufacturing industry, their main sources of income are agriculture and tourism. Their weapons depend on the USA, but their army is full of Chinese spies, so Americans never sell top weapons to Taiwan. And Americans also know that Taiwan cannot defensive success.

 

[Oldman1]

Although Taiwan can make chips, they seriously lack manufacturing industry, their main sources of income are agriculture and tourism. Their weapons depend on the USA, but their army is full of Chinese spies, so Americans never sell top weapons to Taiwan. And Americans also know that Taiwan cannot defensive success.

Taiwan has already build stealth missile boats and their own cruise missiles without needing American help on those. Just like South Korea, they can make some of their own weaponry.