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Erdogans Israel-Bashing Puts Turkey Energy Hub Dreams in Peril
Bloomberg
Onur Ant - Aug 21, 2013
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogans anti-Israel rhetoric is jeopardizing his ambition to make Turkey a regional energy hub, as political uncertainty obstructs a natural gas pipeline deal.
Erdogan linked Israel on Aug. 20 to the Egyptian armys overthrow of Islamist former President Mohamed Mursi, prompting rare condemnation from the U.S. of its only Muslim-majority ally in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Turkey cut diplomatic ties with Israel in 2010 after Israeli soldiers raided an aid ship seeking to break the blockade of the Gaza Strip in 2010, killing nine Turks on board.
Rising tensions between the former allies risk the ability of Israels Delek Group (DLEKG) and Turkeys Zorlu Holding AS to negotiate a pipeline from Israel to Turkey that could feed markets in Europe. While trade has been resilient to the souring of diplomatic ties, building the $2 billion pipeline requires inter-government cooperation for a long-term commercial agreement. Their inability to complete a pipeline deal would hurt Turkish ambitions to become a regional transit center and mean continued dependence on Russia and Iran for gas.
When the politics go wrong, the whole project breaks down, Robin Mills, head of consulting at Manaar Energy Consulting in Dubai, said by phone yesterday. Even if its done by private investors, they would want government protection.
Offensive, Unsubstantiated
Erdogan lashed out against Israel this week for promoting the argument that elections alone dont make a democracy, an argument he said was behind the fall of Mursis elected government in Egypt on July 3.
What are they saying about Egypt? he asked members of his ruling Justice and Development Party at an Ankara meeting. That democracy is not about the ballot box. Whos behind this? Israel. He said he had documents proving the link between the coup and Israel. Erdogans adviser Yigit Bulut published a column in Star newspaper the next day saying the prime minister had revealed a very important truth.
An official in Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahus office, asking not to be identified because he wasnt authorized to comment on the record, dismissed the remarks as nonsense. The Egyptian cabinet said in an e-mailed statement that Erdogans statements on Israels involvement were baseless. In Washington, White House Deputy Press Secretary Josh Earnest condemned the remarks, saying they were offensive, unsubstantiated and wrong.
Political Feasibility
Israels Delek is talking with potential partners for a gas export pipeline to Turkey under the Mediterranean Sea. While the proposal aligns with Ankaras ambitions to serve as a regional gas hub and secure energy sources for its expanding economy, Erdogans government says a resolution of political problems after the aid ship killings is key to its feasibility.
Its good that the private sector is taking responsibility for this project, Turkish Energy Minister Taner Yildiz said in a televised interview on August 14. However, the projects commercial feasibility will only be possible after the political feasibility is established.
Trade ties between Turkey and Israel, excepting canceled military contracts, have escaped the turbulence unscathed, with trade volume up 18 percent during the two years that followed the flotilla killings. Trade in the first six months of this year grew by a third to $2.4 billion as Israels Netanyahu apologized for the deaths on March 22. Turkey still demands compensation for the victims and an end to the blockade of Gaza before restoration of diplomatic ties.
Strategic Considerations
Weve seen that the political disagreements over the past few years have been kept separate from business dealings, Menashe Carmon, chairman of the Tel Aviv-based Israel Turkey Business Council, said by phone yesterday. However, projects such as a pipeline involve governments, not just the private sector, and there are strategic considerations involved in whether Israel will sell Turkey gas.
While Turkeys almost $800 billion economy is the biggest in the Middle East, it imports almost all of its energy. Natural gas imports account for more than 95 percent of total gas supplies and almost half of the electricity it produces. Imports will increase by 20 percent through 2023 from last years 43 billion cubic meters, according to the Energy Ministry.
While Turkey has a contract with Iran for 10 billion cubic meters annually through 2021, actual imports usually remain below the contracted amount due to winter cold snaps in Iran. Without Israel, Turkey may need to turn to Qatar or potential future exporters the U.S. or Iraq for more gas. Turkey also imports from Azerbaijan, Russia, Algeria and Nigeria.
New Sources
The only way to reduce domestic natural gas prices is to find new sources of gas, Energy Minister Yildiz said on Aug. 14. That could be Israel or Iraq or someone else.
Delek, one of the firms developing the 29 trillion cubic feet offshore gas fields Tamar and Leviathan in Israel, is in negotiations for the pipeline project with Turkeys Zorlu Enerji (ZOREN), a Turkish energy ministry official familiar with the talks told Bloomberg on Aug. 14. Both Zorlu, which has stakes in three power plants in Israel, and Delek declined to comment on the talks.
The Israeli governments gas policy puts aside 14 trillion cubic feet of its total 33 trillion cubic feet of reserves for export, Martijn Murphy, a Wood Mackenzie Ltd consultant, said by phone Aug. 15. While the policy is being challenged by the Israeli opposition in court, the export amount probably wont be revised as the oppositions chief concern is the lack of transparency in setting the policy, Murphy said. Israeli gas is sweet and dry, which means production costs are lower than gas produced in most countries in the Gulf region, Murphy said.
Cold Water
Israel could export most of that gas, about 10 billion cubic meters annually, through Turkey in the second half of this decade, an Israeli government official said by phone from Jerusalem, asking not to be named citing political sensitivity around the issue. Exploration in offshore fields could increase that amount in the case of new gas discoveries, he said.
While the pipeline with Turkey is a priority, selling the gas takes precedence and Israel will find other markets if Turkey doesnt move, he said.
Erdogans recent outburst against Israel doesnt help, according to Gilad Alper, a senior analyst at Ramat-Gan, Israel-based Excellence Nessuah Brokerage Ltd.
Erdogans speech blaming Israel for the coup in Egypt pours cold water on the option of Israel cooperating with Turkey on the gas pipeline, he said by phone yesterday.
Erdogan
Bloomberg
Onur Ant - Aug 21, 2013
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogans anti-Israel rhetoric is jeopardizing his ambition to make Turkey a regional energy hub, as political uncertainty obstructs a natural gas pipeline deal.
Erdogan linked Israel on Aug. 20 to the Egyptian armys overthrow of Islamist former President Mohamed Mursi, prompting rare condemnation from the U.S. of its only Muslim-majority ally in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Turkey cut diplomatic ties with Israel in 2010 after Israeli soldiers raided an aid ship seeking to break the blockade of the Gaza Strip in 2010, killing nine Turks on board.
Rising tensions between the former allies risk the ability of Israels Delek Group (DLEKG) and Turkeys Zorlu Holding AS to negotiate a pipeline from Israel to Turkey that could feed markets in Europe. While trade has been resilient to the souring of diplomatic ties, building the $2 billion pipeline requires inter-government cooperation for a long-term commercial agreement. Their inability to complete a pipeline deal would hurt Turkish ambitions to become a regional transit center and mean continued dependence on Russia and Iran for gas.
When the politics go wrong, the whole project breaks down, Robin Mills, head of consulting at Manaar Energy Consulting in Dubai, said by phone yesterday. Even if its done by private investors, they would want government protection.
Offensive, Unsubstantiated
Erdogan lashed out against Israel this week for promoting the argument that elections alone dont make a democracy, an argument he said was behind the fall of Mursis elected government in Egypt on July 3.
What are they saying about Egypt? he asked members of his ruling Justice and Development Party at an Ankara meeting. That democracy is not about the ballot box. Whos behind this? Israel. He said he had documents proving the link between the coup and Israel. Erdogans adviser Yigit Bulut published a column in Star newspaper the next day saying the prime minister had revealed a very important truth.
An official in Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahus office, asking not to be identified because he wasnt authorized to comment on the record, dismissed the remarks as nonsense. The Egyptian cabinet said in an e-mailed statement that Erdogans statements on Israels involvement were baseless. In Washington, White House Deputy Press Secretary Josh Earnest condemned the remarks, saying they were offensive, unsubstantiated and wrong.
Political Feasibility
Israels Delek is talking with potential partners for a gas export pipeline to Turkey under the Mediterranean Sea. While the proposal aligns with Ankaras ambitions to serve as a regional gas hub and secure energy sources for its expanding economy, Erdogans government says a resolution of political problems after the aid ship killings is key to its feasibility.
Its good that the private sector is taking responsibility for this project, Turkish Energy Minister Taner Yildiz said in a televised interview on August 14. However, the projects commercial feasibility will only be possible after the political feasibility is established.
Trade ties between Turkey and Israel, excepting canceled military contracts, have escaped the turbulence unscathed, with trade volume up 18 percent during the two years that followed the flotilla killings. Trade in the first six months of this year grew by a third to $2.4 billion as Israels Netanyahu apologized for the deaths on March 22. Turkey still demands compensation for the victims and an end to the blockade of Gaza before restoration of diplomatic ties.
Strategic Considerations
Weve seen that the political disagreements over the past few years have been kept separate from business dealings, Menashe Carmon, chairman of the Tel Aviv-based Israel Turkey Business Council, said by phone yesterday. However, projects such as a pipeline involve governments, not just the private sector, and there are strategic considerations involved in whether Israel will sell Turkey gas.
While Turkeys almost $800 billion economy is the biggest in the Middle East, it imports almost all of its energy. Natural gas imports account for more than 95 percent of total gas supplies and almost half of the electricity it produces. Imports will increase by 20 percent through 2023 from last years 43 billion cubic meters, according to the Energy Ministry.
While Turkey has a contract with Iran for 10 billion cubic meters annually through 2021, actual imports usually remain below the contracted amount due to winter cold snaps in Iran. Without Israel, Turkey may need to turn to Qatar or potential future exporters the U.S. or Iraq for more gas. Turkey also imports from Azerbaijan, Russia, Algeria and Nigeria.
New Sources
The only way to reduce domestic natural gas prices is to find new sources of gas, Energy Minister Yildiz said on Aug. 14. That could be Israel or Iraq or someone else.
Delek, one of the firms developing the 29 trillion cubic feet offshore gas fields Tamar and Leviathan in Israel, is in negotiations for the pipeline project with Turkeys Zorlu Enerji (ZOREN), a Turkish energy ministry official familiar with the talks told Bloomberg on Aug. 14. Both Zorlu, which has stakes in three power plants in Israel, and Delek declined to comment on the talks.
The Israeli governments gas policy puts aside 14 trillion cubic feet of its total 33 trillion cubic feet of reserves for export, Martijn Murphy, a Wood Mackenzie Ltd consultant, said by phone Aug. 15. While the policy is being challenged by the Israeli opposition in court, the export amount probably wont be revised as the oppositions chief concern is the lack of transparency in setting the policy, Murphy said. Israeli gas is sweet and dry, which means production costs are lower than gas produced in most countries in the Gulf region, Murphy said.
Cold Water
Israel could export most of that gas, about 10 billion cubic meters annually, through Turkey in the second half of this decade, an Israeli government official said by phone from Jerusalem, asking not to be named citing political sensitivity around the issue. Exploration in offshore fields could increase that amount in the case of new gas discoveries, he said.
While the pipeline with Turkey is a priority, selling the gas takes precedence and Israel will find other markets if Turkey doesnt move, he said.
Erdogans recent outburst against Israel doesnt help, according to Gilad Alper, a senior analyst at Ramat-Gan, Israel-based Excellence Nessuah Brokerage Ltd.
Erdogans speech blaming Israel for the coup in Egypt pours cold water on the option of Israel cooperating with Turkey on the gas pipeline, he said by phone yesterday.
Erdogan
