What's new

Emerging markets fund manager favors Bangladesh and Kenya, and avoids Korea and Taiwan

Homo Sapiens

ELITE MEMBER
Joined
Feb 3, 2015
Messages
9,641
Reaction score
-1
Country
Bangladesh
Location
Bangladesh
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/in...s-to-the-frontier-for-bigger-gains-2017-07-25
Emerging markets fund manager favors Bangladesh and Kenya, and avoids Korea and Taiwan

Published: July 25, 2017 5:36 p.m. ET




Sandra Ackermann-Schaufler of SEI Investments says countries in ‘frontier markets’ can have superior growth to emerging-market countries


MW-FQ500_halyk__20170718123311_ZH.jpg
Bloomberg
Headquarters of Halyk Savings Bank in Almaty, Kazakhstan.

By


Philipvan Doorn

Investing columnist

Investors’ interest in emerging markets stocks is back. They may want to travel a bit farther to so-called frontier markets for even better returns, said Sandra Ackermann-Schaufler, portfolio manager for international and emerging markets for SEI Investments.

Frontier markets — those that haven’t yet achieved designation as emerging markets by MSCI Inc. — may grow even faster, she said.

First, here’s how the MSCI Emerging Markets Index 891800, +0.00% has performed over the past five years:

MW-FQ836_MSCINE_20170724073702_NS.png
FactSet
The five-year return of 53% isn’t impressive when compared with the 102% return for the S&P 500 Index SPX, +0.29% over the same period. Of course, that’s not a fair comparison, but it does illustrate how difficult the ride has been for emerging markets — until recently. The MSCI EM Index has returned 22% over the past year.

But over the long term, the faster growth rates for emerging and developing markets could lead to better investment performance than in developed economies. This chart, using data compiled by Ashmore Group, compares average historical and expected gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates:

MW-FQ685_gdpgro_20170720142101_NS.png
Ashmore Group
Ackermann-Schaufler oversees the management of 10 international equity funds with combined assets of more than $19 billion. She joined SEI in 2009 to reorganize the company’s International and Emerging Markets Equity Investment Strategies Group and improve its performance. Before that, she was a portfolio manager at Merrill Lynch.

In an interview and subsequent email exchange, we focused on two funds:

• The $1.9 billion SIT Emerging Markets Equity Fund, which has Class F SIEMX, +0.00% and Class Y SEQFX, +0.00% shares, and was described by Ackermann-Schaufler as a “classic” EM fund.

• The $1.2 billion SIIT Emerging Markets Equity Fund SMQFX, +0.09% which invests more heavily in small-cap EM companies and has exposure to frontier markets. (Editor’s note: It’s correct that one is called SIT and the other SIIT.)

MSCI reviews its market classifications annually, and it’s an important process because of the passively managed funds that aim to mirror the index and the actively managed funds that benchmark against it. Here’a link to MSCI’s current lists of countries in developed, emerging and frontier markets.

“We believe a lot of smaller EM countries have similar characteristics to frontier markets,” Ackermann-Schaufler said, pointing to significant growth potential as people in those countries adopt new technology and develop more sophisticated financial services.

She went on to say that “there is a lot of benefit to stay away from more developed countries, such as Korea and Taiwan,” because the less developed countries have much younger populations and are “more geared toward the consumer sector.”

MW-FQ419_Ackerm_20170717122850_MG.jpg
SEI Investments
Sandra Ackermann-Schaufler, portfolio manager for international and emerging markets for SEI Investments.
“We decided it would benefit out clients to lean away from more developed EM markets toward frontier markets,” Ackermann-Schaufler said.

When discussing specific emerging market and frontier market stocks, Ackermann-Schaufler pointed out that information-technology companies make up 26.6% of the MSCI EM index, while financial-services companies account for 23.6%.

Some investors may still believe that “emerging markets” means materials and energy, which make up 7.1% and 6.6% of the index, respectively. The banking sector in particular is “underpenetrated” in frontier and smaller emerging markets, she said.

Seven frontier-market stocks
Here are some of Ackermann-Schaufler’s favorite frontier-market stocks, in five countries:

Kazakhstan
Halyk Savings Bank of Kazakhstan HSBK, +1.05% is held by the SIIT Emerging Markets Equity Fund. The bank acquired KKB, a distressed competitor, with government assistance in July, making it “the largest bank in the region,” according to Ackermann-Schaufler.

She likes the bank because of her positive view of the “turnaround” in Kazakhstan’s currency and because the bank’s leading position should enable it to attract more deposits and make more loans.

Kaz Minerals KAZ, +9.28% is held by both SEI funds. The company expects 78% of its revenue this year to come from copper, with zinc, gold and silver making up the rest.

Ackermann-Schaufler expects Kaz Minerals to “nearly double” its revenue in 2017, with production “ramping” at two recently commissioned copper mines in Kazakhstan. Another copper mine is in the “scoping stage,” she said.

She sees “meaningful” upside potential for the shares, which trade for about six times the consensus forward earnings estimate. “Clearly, commodity pricing and sentiment as well as any delays or production issues will be the key risks we are monitoring for this investment,” she added.

Argentina
Both of the Argentine banks Ackermann-Schaufler discussed are held by both funds.

Under the administration of Mauricio Macri, who was sworn in as Argentina’s president in December 2015, investors are looking at an “attractive, credible macro story,” which should allow the country’s banks “to have ample room to grow and create value,” Ackermann-Schaufler said.

“Credit to GDP is at 15%” in Argentina, which compares with 88% in Chile, 52% in Brazil, 43% in Colombia, 40% in Peru and 22% in Mexico,” Ackermann-Schaufle said. This leads her to expect Argentina to have the fastest growth in credit over the next two to three years.

She called MSCI’s decision in June not to upgrade Argentina to an emerging-market designation from a frontier market “a bit of a blow,” but also said “it is only a matter of time when, and not if, it will happen.” The World Bank expects the country’s economy to expand by 2.7% this year, accelerating to 3.2% in 2018 and in 2019.

Banco Macro SA BMA, +0.76% is the second-largest domestically owned bank in Argentina, with a “successful track record” for acquiring competitors, Ackermann-Schaufler said. This is important because the country’s banking industry is “still fragmented,” and the bank’s “strong capital base” can help it take advantage of further consolidation as the economy accelerates.

She also said Banco Macro has the lowest ratio of non-performing loans to total loans among Argentina’s private banks, because it is the financial agent for several provincial governments.

Grupo Financiero Galicia SA GGAL, +1.16% is a holding company whose banking operations are the fifth-largest in Argentina, but the biggest among privately owned companies. Ackermann-Schaufler said the stock is attractive because the company “is the \leader in the retail credit market and has a dominant position” in the credit card space, setting it up for significant growth as the expanding economy drives an increase in consumers’ earnings and borrowings.

Bangladesh

Bangladesh is one of the biggest frontier-market countries, with a population of more than 160 million. The World Bank expects its GDP to increase by 6.8% this year and by 6.4% in 2018 and 6.7% in 2019.


“Like in Kenya, the cashless economy is growing strongly, which is stimulating consumer spending,” Ackermann-Schaufler said. She compared Bangladesh to “India, about a decade ago.”


Brac Bank Ltd. BRACBANK, +0.00% is held by the SIIT Emerging Markets Equity Fund. It is privately owned, and focuses on lending to small to medium-sized companies. Ackermann-Schaufler is impressed with its “professional management,” and believes that in the wake of a difficult period for Bangladesh, including political tension, a collapse of the stock market and a “surge in non-performing loans,” the country’s banking sector has “bottomed, and has shown signs of recovery.”


She said Brac Bank is a 50% owner of bKash, which has nearly an 80% market share for mobile financial services in Bangladesh, and that this business segment is growing quickly, with the bank “working on adding more core bank products” to the platform.


Ackermann-Schaufler expects “further upside” for the stock over the next 12 to 24 months, if bKash has its own stock listed.


Romania
Ackermann-Schaufler said that following an increase in debt levels during the European debt crisis, companies in Romania have “deleveraged,” and loan growth has “recently accelerated.”

Banca Transilvania (traded in Romania under the ticker TLV) is held by the SIIT Emerging Markets Equity Fund. It’s the largest domestic bank in Romania, and is taking advantage of a pullback from the country by Western European banks, Ackermann-Schaufler said. She expects improved returns on equity as the bank expands, and possibly higher dividend payments to shareholders. She called the bank’s pending acquisition of Bancpost from Eurobank a “key catalyst” for the stock.

Kenya
Equity Bank Ltd. EBL, +0.00% is held by the SIIT Emerging Markets Equity Fund. The bank is headquartered in Nairobi, Kenya, and also operates in Uganda, Tanzania, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and South Sudan.

The bank faces a major challenge in Kenya, where it has 79% of its total assets and derives 90% of its profits, because of a law passed in August 2016 that caps interest rates for loans and deposits. But Ackermann-Schaufler expects the bank to maintain “a respectable ROE [return on equity].” With the shares trading for about 1.4 times book value, she sees “good upside.” If the interest-rate-cap law were to be reversed or modified, it would be icing on the cake.

Emerging markets stocks
Ackermann-Schaufler favors Credicorp Ltd. BAP, +0.74% the largest bank in Peru, which she described as a “smaller EM economy with very low credit penetration — much lower than even the neighboring countries.”

“We see a strengthening of the bank with stronger metrics, which should allow it to regain long-term growth,” Ackermann-Schaufler said, adding that she likes its valuation, at 2.4 times book value and 12 times forward earnings estimates.

A larger EM financial name that Ackermann-Schaufler likes is HDFC Bank Ltd. HDB, +0.85% of Mumbai, India.

“HDFC would be best of breed among private banks in India. It can afford to cherry pick the best customers from a large and liquid pool,” she said. HDFC has an advantage over its largest competitors, which are state-run banks. “It is faster growing and has low credit losses,” and is well-positioned to poach business from the government banks, she said.

The stock isn’t cheap, as it trades for 23.7 times the consensus 2018 earnings estimate among analysts polled by FactSet. But Ackermann-Schaufler thinks this valuation is still attractive, in light of “a high average compound growth rate in recent years.”

When asked about Tencent Holdings Ltd. 0700, -0.27% while discussing the penetration of smart phones in emerging markets, Ackermann-Schaufler said she was “underweight” the stock, which made up 4.4% of the MSCI EM Index and was the second-largest component of the index as of June 30. The stock trades for 32 times the consensus 2018 earnings estimate. Then again, this social media “dominant player,” as Ackermann-Schaufler called the company, has grown its sales per share over the past 12 reported months 41% from the year-earlier 12-month period, according to data supplied by FactSet.

“My underweight position doesn’t necessarily signal I don’t believe in the stock. I am underweight because it is what is best for my clients,” she said.

Even though the top 10 positions in the two funds are Asian technology companies, Ackermann-Schaufler believes that it would be too risky to match the index, which had the biggest 10 stocks (of 845) making up 23.7% of its market cap as of June 30.

If a portfolio is underweight the largest Asian tech companies, it might underperform the index, as the portfolios managed by Ackermann-Schaufler did during the second quarter. However, she said, “you have reputational risk against the benchmark but also have fiduciary responsibilities for your clients.”

Fund portfolios
Here are the top 10 equity holdings (of 519) of the SIT Emerging Markets Equity Fund as of June 30:

Company Ticker Industry Share of portfolio Total return - 12 months through July 21 Total return - 3 years
Samsung Electronics Co. 005930, -0.64% Telecom. Equipment 3.6% 69% 99%
Tencent Holdings Ltd. 0700, -0.27% Internet Software/ Services 3.0% 61% 146%
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. ADR BABA, +0.12% Internet Retail 2.7% 80% N/A
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. 2330, -0.23% Semiconductors 2.6% 28% 92%
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd. Class H 1398, +0.19% Major Banks 1.3% 29% 27%
Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. 2317, -0.43% Computer Peripherals 1.3% 57% 55%
Baidu Inc. ADR BIDU, -0.81% Internet Software/ Services 1.1% 20% -2%
Ping An Insurance Co. of China Ltd. Class H 2318, -1.14% Multi-Line Insurance 0.9% 59% 106%
Reliance industries Ltd. GDR RIGD, +0.10% Oil Refining/ Marketing 0.9% 65% 50%
Sina Corp. SINA, -0.04% Internet Software/ Services 0.9% 105% 122%
SEI Investments
And here are the top 10 stocks (of 473) held by the SIIT Emerging Markets Equity Fund as of the same date:

Company Ticker Industry Share of portfolio Total return - 12 months through July 21 Total return - 3 years
Tencent Holdings Ltd. 0700, -0.27% Internet Software/ Services 2.1% 61% 146%
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. ADR TSM, -0.33% Semiconductors 2.0% 34% 90%
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. ADR BABA, +0.12% Internet Retail 1.5% 80% N/A
Samsung Electronics Co. 005930, -0.64% Telecom. Equipment 1.4% 69% 99%
Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. 2317, -0.43% Computer Peripherals 1.2% 57% 55%
China Construction Bank Corp. Class H 0939, +0.31% Major Banks 1.1% 24% 34%
Credicorp Ltd. BAP, +0.74% Regional Banks 0.8% 19% 30%
HDFC Bank Ltd. ADR HDB, +0.85% Regional Banks 0.7% 33% 96%
National Bank of Kuwait S.A.K. NBK, +0.14% Regional Banks 0.7% 25% -7%
Yandex N.V. Class A YNDX, -0.31% Internet Software/. Services 0.7% 48% 6%
SEI Investments
You can click the tickers for much more information, including news, valuation ratios, financials and filings.

Fund performance
Here’s how the SIT Emerging Markets Equity Fund‘s Class F shares have performed against the MSCI Emerging Markets Index:


Ticker Total return - 12 months Average annual return - 3 years Average return - 5 years Average return - 10 years
SIT Emerging Markets Equity Fund - Class F SIEMX, +0.00% 25.6% 2.3% 5.3% 0.4%
MSCI Emerging Markets Index 891800, +0.00% 22.1% 7.2% 8.8% 4.3%
Sources: Morningstar, FactSet
SIT Emerging Markets Equity Fund’s Class Y shares SEQFX, +0.00% were established on Dec. 31, 2014. Over the past 12 months, though July 21, this share class has returned 26%.

The SIIT Emerging Markets Equity Fund SMQFX, +0.09% was established on Oct. 31, 2014. It has returned 19.6% over the past 12 months.
 
. .

Pakistan Defence Latest Posts

Pakistan Affairs Latest Posts

Back
Top Bottom