Economists question whether China will ever overtake the U.S. as the top global economy

[SaadH]

A lot of hard work must have went into that. For this we should be appreciative of Allah’s mercy and the gumnaam health professionals and government officials trying to keep the people safe.


They maybe on the verge of breakthroughs in key industries like airliners. Boeing has really hurt the reputation of American made airliners to the point Chinese companies like COMAC may have a chance to take market share. Remember the story of RyanAir considering to buy COMAC planes recently. Once they are in with one western airline it may only be a matter of time, before they make up a significant share of all the major airlines, just like Airbus took market share from the smaller American airline manufacturers.

A fine example of Reaganomics shored up by neoliberal Democrats, thus nailing the last nail into the American economy's coffin...

 

[Saudang]

 

[MultaniGuy]

We are not from a joke country like you, LMAO... Slumdug 2020....
View attachment 804786

https://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/India-can-become-economically-developed-by-2020-Kalam/article14905378.ece

World bank or IMF are not 'CCP mouth pieces'...
You are so triggered...What a joke...LMAO...

These Indians are such jokers. India is way behind China. lol.

 

[Beidou2020]

Who gives a **** about the exchange rate of RMB against the USD. CCP can announce exchange rate to be equal to USD and make the Chitcom economy a $100 trillion economy tomorrow..

Broadening your information source other than CCP mouth pieces will help

China’s economy is 110 trillion yuan.

 

[MultaniGuy]

Probably China will supersede USA economically as soon as 2023. Hopefully.
I am talking about Nominal GDP per terms.

 

[Kai Liu]

Shut up you virus vector...I live in a country with living standards a century ahead of China.

Not just a century ahead of China, but a millennium ahead of the world, slumdug is really funny:

 

[MultaniGuy]

Yes lord of the virus. As you say
View attachment 804789

Hey slumdog, hahahaha, China is way ahead of India.

 

[Saudang]

Hey slumdog, hahahaha, China is way ahead of India.

Haha

Haha


Hahahaha

 

[Kai Liu]

Yes lord of the virus. As you say

Well, we got dozen of cases now, people enjoy their lives very much,

but for you, make sure you animal got disinfected and find a spot to live in trees...LMAO...

 

[Black Tornado]

@Saudang no need to post nonsense and derail this thread, counter a point factually instead of trolling. India still has to achieve a lot.

 

[SuvarnaTeja]

Some experts have questioned the narrative that Chinawill "inevitably" overtake the U.S. as the top economicpower in the world.

China has set its sights on overtaking the U.S. through the symbolic gesture of its GDP surpassing that of the U.S., with 2020 providing a humbling opportunity as the U.S. economy shrank due to lockdowns and issues emerging out of the pandemic. The drop represented a relative gain of $1 trillion, putting China’s economy at $6.2 trillion behind the U.S.

Most economists believe that this will see China overtake the U.S. by the early 2030s, especially with seemingly faster rebound from the pandemic hit to the global economy.


But some economists argue that the signs are not as robust for China as the CCP would like the world to believe, leading some to believe that China might not overtake the U.S. in the near future, if at all – barring a total collapse or other disaster for the U.S. economy.

The U.S. GDP fell 2.3% while China’s grew by the same percentage during the pandemic, but China’s per-capita GDP is still far below that of the U.S. by about 20%, according to calculations by Bloomberg economists.


Stanford historian Niall Ferguson sketches a picture that points to the limits of the CCP’s extreme control over nearly every sector of the economy: Initially, that control allowed the party to significantly strengthen the economy and help it recover from sizable disasters that may have spelled certain doom for other countries – such as preventing the possible disaster of Evergrande scrapping a Shanghai listing for an electric vehicle subsidiary from turning into a "Lehman moment."

But that same control may very well prevent the economy from developing the kind of innovation that could help propel China over the top. How much of a toll is up for debate.

London-based consultancy firm Capital Economics (CE) also argues that China’s workforce has declined and will continue to do so by more than 0.5% by 2030, Newsweek reports.

"The most likely scenario is that slowing productivity growth and a shrinking workforce prevent China ever passing the U.S.," the analysis said. CE also noted that inflation and the exchange rate will play a significant factor in deciding how the economic standoff plays out.


China has also rejected efforts to open the economy, which has caused the economic growth to slow – even if only a little – over the past decade.

The most speculative argument points to the middle-income trap as the pitfall that will prevent China from achieving its ambition, according to George Manus, an associate at Oxford University’s China Centre and a senior economic advisor to UBS Investment Banking.

In an op-ed published by The Guardian, Magnus argues that the middle-income trap is "normally characterized by difficult economic adjustment and often by unpredictable political consequences."


A 30-year sprint to the top since 1990, China’s GDP has doubled while America’s halved, but that growth spurt has ended. Forecasts for when China may overtake the U.S. continue to slide back, presenting a similar situation to 1930s Germany and the later decades of the Soviet Union.

How China reacts over the next ten years will determine whether it falls the same way those other challengers did, or if it will succeed where they failed.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/economists-question-china-overtake-us-global-economy.amp

China Just Overtook The US As The World's Largest Economy
MIKE BIRD
OCT 8, 2014, 14:38 IST

REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton

Sorry, America. China just overtook the US to become the world's largest economy, according to the International Monetary Fund.

Chris Giles at the Financial Times flagged up the change. He'd also alerted us back in April this year that it was all about to happen.
Basically, the method used by the IMF adjusts for purchasing power parity, explained here. The simple logic is that prices aren't the same in each country: a shirt will cost you less in Shanghai than San Francisco, so it's not entirely reasonable to compare countries without taking this into account. Though a typical person in China earns a lot less than the typical person in the US, simply converting a Chinese salary into dollars underestimates how much purchasing power that individual, and therefore that country, might have. The Economist's Big Mac Index is a great example of these disparities.


So the IMF measures both GDP in market exchange terms, and in terms of purchasing power. On the purchasing power basis, China is overtaking the US right about now and becoming the world's biggest economy.
We've just gone past that cross-over on the chart below, according to the IMF. By the end of 2014, China will make up 16.48% of the world's purchasing-power adjusted GDP (or $17.632 trillion), and the US will make up just 16.28% (or $17.416 trillion):


IMF, Google Public Data Explorer
Adjusted for purchasing power, the IMF thinks China's economy is now the world's largest.

It's not all sore news for the US. It'll be some time yet until the lines cross over in raw terms, not adjusted for purchasing power. By that measure, China still sits more than $6.5 trillion lower than the US, and isn't likely to overtake for quite some time:






IMF, Google Public Data Explorter
But in terms of the raw market value of China's currency, it still has a long way to go.

China Just Overtook The US As The World's Largest Economy | Business Insider India

REUTERSShannon StapletonSorry, America. China just overtook the US to become the worlds largest economy, according to the International Monetary Fund.

www.businessinsider.in

 

[大汉奸柳传志]

never seen a real economist that uses nominal as measurement instead of purchasing power

 

[hualushui]

 

[applesauce]

View attachment 804813

lol is that the first edition?
or like the 10th year hes published the same book but moved the date up year.

 

[SuvarnaTeja]

never seen a real economist that uses nominal as measurement instead of purchasing power

Nominal GDP is dumb.

PPP reflects the real economy.