Economists question whether China will ever overtake the U.S. as the top global economy

[FuturePAF]

I was sent to Ryanair last year to test their flight simulators. They are still firm about getting their Max aircraft, in addition to A320s.

COMAC may work out but it is having far too many problems to be sold in a mass market. Even the simulators are exhibiting lots of engineering issues. Cheap doesn't mean to speed up on compromising reliability.

Sure, no one expects them to compromise on safety, I was quoting a news story I remember. If The Chinese can’t make a safe and reliable plane, it won’t see wide spread use. But we in the general public don’t know that they are having these teething issues and rely on regulators to make sure all milestones are achieved, hence why I said, they maybe on the verge of a breakthrough, I.e. having worked out the flaws in their design or build quality or achieving in house production of all key components.

btw, the story about Ryanair’s commitment was a MOU from 2011; I assume on the understanding they are approved by regulators

Ryanair Still Committed To Chinese Built Aircraft Amid Airbus Boeing Duopoly

www.google.com

 

[ozranger]

I'm in the camp that believes the CCP overstates its GDP by 25-30%, mostly as a result of a top-down system that rewards lower government officials for meeting annual budgets and GDP targets by suspiciously close margins.

Watch what's happening with the Chinese real estate market, its on a downward trend over the last three months that will almost certainly precipitate a burst of the bubble and a long recession given that 30% of Chinas GDP is directly or indriectly generated by the real estate sector.

There is an ongoing systematic correction to property and education markets over there in order to remediate the falling birth rate and further grow the world's largest middle class. Of course some private business tycoons will suffer heavy loss, such as current owner of Evergrande. In that sense, they are practically conducting wealth redistribution in a bid to shrink wealth gaps as they realise that the size of middle class population and the associated domestic consumer markets are their core strength for winning a national competition against America.

FYI some of my friends in China recently indicated that the property prices could further drop.

BTW, while leadership of China does care about GDP growth, especially on local government level, GDP number competition with the US is never their major concern. They don't run macro economy in a path of unregulated capitalism.

Only Americans are worried about GDP competition.

 

[Kai Liu]

never seen a real economist that uses nominal as measurement instead of purchasing power

For China, we make literally everything, purchasing power is a better indication, but for some countries, e.g., india, who import everything, you still have to use nominal.

 

[FuturePAF]

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This guy has been saying this for the past 20 years, at least. He even admitted in a recent podcast that he went overboard with this “about to collapse” narrative. Despite that, I don’t remember if he doubled down on it now that whole world’s attention is on China and he has the chance to a reference like that Ahmed Chalibi figure of the “Iraqi National Congress”