"Under the current sensitive situation of the Korean Peninsula, all parties should stay calm, exercise restraint and should not do things that may escalate the situation. China believes that no hot issues can be resolved through simple means of sanctions and pressure. Nor will any action that hurt the interests of third-parties can solve the problem, and they will only complicate the situation. We hope all parties involved can act prudently and not to cause troubles."
A firm and respectable position, held by the Chinese side. The fact that both leaders from Japan and China are discussing this and holding direct bilateral communication and information sharing on this aspect reflects a fluency in both nations' understanding of the other side's concern. Japan must continue to assuage our regional partners -- China and South Korea -- to work together and maintain diplomatic rapport with Pyongyang. I suppose one can see that Tokyo wants a direct network to Pyongyang and the conduit to that will be not through Russia, Seoul, but actually Beijing. Beijing, in the consideration and view of Tokyo, is the key player here and hence formal , continuous bilateral mechanisms must be endorsed and perpetuated. The Six Party talks seems to be ineffective at defusing the situation, rather than exacerbating the peninsula. And with the recent 'hot verbal exchanges' between Pyongyang and South Korea's Park, we (Japan and China) must do our part to calm the environment. If one side is hyper, we must hypo; if the other side is hypo, we must hyper. Again, balance. This is a profound diplomatic development in the overall picture.
First, is fat Kim trustworthy? Will he abandons his nuclear weapon after sign the treaty. Second, will South Korea willing to sign a peace treaty with North Korea? Since South Korean are patriots, like us the Chinese, who always want to unify their country. Lastly, a unified or peaceful Korea serves no benefit for the American, since they cant use this threat to blackmail the S.Korea anymore.
I think this N. Korea crisis will go full circle, like the last talk. But, I do not support a further economic sanction on N Korea because a desperate man has nothing to lose. I wonder if there any chance from the Chinese side to depose fat Kim and install his older brother to the throne.
A cautiously optimistic view you have my friend, and I like it, it is so reflective of the progress that we , patriots of East Asia, so long and yearn for and expresses the pragmatism of the Chinese intelligentsia --- which we in Japan have learned to belove and find confirmation in.
We must try to understand the psychology of Kim Jung Un and also the psychology of the people of North Korea --- for the past 60 some years they have, truly, been demonized by the West and even by some leaders in South Korea, Japan, and to an extent even in China. North Korea seems to have retained some of the old ideological bastions of the soviet commisarist visage that was quite common during the early foundational epoch of North Korea immediately after the collapse of the Japanese Empire's Korean Province --- and that ideological vacuum was filled. From the heavy monarchical socialist ideology of Tokyo to the communist ideology of the Soviet Union and the People's Republic.
This has been their ideological bedrock and fount of safety and security for them, the North Korean people and North Korean Nation, for the past 60 some years, which has seen their independence as well as prolonging the anti-colonialist mindset of post-Japanese controlled Korea. In fact many of the ideological leaders of North Korea were influenced by the March 1st Movement in Korea back in 1919 and the announcment of 대한민국 임시정부 [In Chinese: 大韓民國臨時政府], which was a province wide movement in Korea that sought independence from the Japanese Empire. Many of the idealogues in the March 1st Movement lived on and operated under the scenes, sprouting up only after Tokyo's surrender in 1945.
These early reformers , movers and shakers were influential for the unification movement in both Seoul and Pyongyang, unfortunately Korea was held hostage to Soviet and American motives and calculations at the time. The Korean War was actually a continuation of not just extranational affairs, but the ideological movement within Korea in trying to find out what type of post-colonial government would best be established ; whether it would be a parliamentary government as that in Tokyo, or a socialist representative style government seen in Europe, Russia and China. Ultimately the motto of 대한독립만세 is present amongst all Koreans, South and North Koreans. By the way 대한독립만세 means , and i paraphrase, "eternal life be unto a unified Korea".
Now, going back to Kim Jong Un, you have to understand that he and his leadership have still that 대한독립만세 spirit , as does the South Koreans. But what can we expect from an economically starved North Korea? Do we expect a starving tiger to come hither to one's call under the guise of threat, or do we expect it to lash out in defense , in an act of desperation? We would expect the latter, my friend. Japan realizes this and i suppose this is the reason why Japan has held limited trade with Pyongyang even after the 2010 sanctions imposed on Pyongyang by Tokyo; in fact trade is active between North Korea and Japan's western prefectures such as Akita, Yamagata, Ishikawa, Toyama, Fukui , Nigata, among others. Perhaps we deign to explore the reasons why Tokyo is asking for China's aid in that Chinese defense of Pyongyang may be utilized as a means for Tokyo to rethink and reposturize its orientation towards Pyongyang. Afterall, the $30 Billion bilateral trade between Tokyo and Pyongyang is severely missed. Not all members of Japanese society are for the sanctions, especially the 日本経済団体連合会 (Keidanren).
Will he abandons his nuclear weapon after sign the treaty. Second, will South Korea willing to sign a peace treaty with North Korea? Since South Korean are patriots, like us the Chinese, who always want to unify their country. Lastly, a unified or peaceful Korea serves no benefit for the American, since they cant use this threat to blackmail the S.Korea anymore.
Perhaps , and i hypothesize here, Pyongyang may ask China to hold their nuclear arsenal for them or explore a joint strategic command. This may prove effective, actually as both objectives are met: 1) China retains her strategic safety and command, 2) Korea may be allowed to rehabilitate itself peninsula-wide.
As for the latter part, well, we can't expect them to be on our progress-oriented side. They will contest, no matter what. That is to be
expected.
