Dubai council: reduce dependence on Iran, India

[Capt.Popeye]

Iran already started shifting trades to other neighborhood countries even Russia. Iran and India are working on a trade port in chabahar, south east of Iran, let see who is loser in the end.

Iran and India should accelerate work on Chah Bahar, increase its capabilities and operationalise the railroad/roadway connectivity to Afghanistan. There will be multiple benefits to this. Iran will gain in strategic importance as this route can be up and running when the Minerals from Afghanistan will start to get exported. Incredible as it may seem; India can run this route on behalf of Iran-- which will be acceptable to USA. USA will be among the beneficiaries; which will lead to an eventual Iran-US rapprochement which the region needs. Even Russia is very favorable to operationalisation of Chah Bahar and the rail-link to Afghanistan. Chah Bahar can be a huge enabler for Iran.

For India, the benefit is that it can be used to pay for oil imports from Iran, bypassing currency blockages. The deal will be 'win-win' for Iran and India to start with. When the other players in Afghanistan gain benefits from it; it will become 'win-win-win'.

p.s. @Era_923 please give your opinions.

 

[Serpentine]

Iran and India should accelerate work on Chah Bahar, increase its capabilities and operationalise the railroad/roadway connectivity to Afghanistan. There will be multiple benefits to this. Iran will gain in strategic importance as this route can be up and running when the Minerals from Afghanistan will start to get exported. Incredible as it may seem; India can run this route on behalf of Iran-- which will be acceptable to USA. USA will be among the beneficiaries; which will lead to an eventual Iran-US rapprochement which the region needs. Even Russia is very favorable to operationalisation of Chah Bahar and the rail-link to Afghanistan. Chah Bahar can be a huge enabler for Iran.

For India, the benefit is that it can be used to pay for oil imports from Iran, bypassing currency blockages. The deal will be 'win-win' for Iran and India to start with. When the other players in Afghanistan gain benefits from it; it will become 'win-win-win'.

p.s. @Era_923 please give your opinions.

Yeah I agree. Chabahar can be closest route to Europe,Russia and Central Asia for South Asian countries and also for Far East, like South Korea,Japan, Malaysia,Indonesia and even China.It's location is much more strategic than Dubai and it can bypass Dubai and become the regional trading hub.The only thing that held it back is political disagreements and to a lesser extent, minor security concerns that has been dealt with completely.

For Iran, other than being a great source of income, it can also help us completely bypass Dubai for importing goods.What's the reason.Iran has more coastline in Persian Gulf and sea of Oman than all neighboring Arab countries,it makes no sense that a city which is only a hundred miles away from Iran, re-export lots of goods to our country.Same for India and other Asian countries, hence Chabahar can be a new Dubai for India,also an export hub for Indian and Asian goods to Afghanistan, Central Asia,Russia, Caucasus and ultimately, Iraq, Turkey and Europe.Indeed it's a win-win-win for all parties,if only we overcome political difficulties.

 

[Capt.Popeye]

Yeah I agree. Chabahar can be closest route to Europe,Russia and Central Asia for South Asian countries and also for Far East, like South Korea,Japan, Malaysia,Indonesia and even China.It's location is much more strategic than Dubai and it can bypass Dubai and become the regional trading hub.The only thing that held it back is political disagreements and to a lesser extent, minor security concerns that has been dealt with completely.

For Iran, other than being a great source of income, it can also help us completely bypass Dubai for importing goods.What's the reason.Iran has more coastline in Persian Gulf and sea of Oman more than all neighboring Arab countries,it makes no sense that a city which is only a hundred miles away from Iran, re-export lots of goods to our country.Same for India and other Asian countries, hence Chabahar can be a new Dubai for India,also an export hub for Indian and Asian goods to Afghanistan, Central Asia,Russia, Caucasus and ultimately, Iraq, Turkey and Europe.Indeed it's a win-win-win for all parties,if only we overcome political difficulties.

@Era_923; I don't know if there are any internal problems in Iran wrt Chah Bahar. The external issues with Chah Bahar relate mainly to USA and the GCC fears of losing primacy as a regional hub. Being familiar with Marine transportation; I see potential in Chah Bahar. But more about that later, right now let us only address the geo-political issues of Chah Bahar.

To bypass the GCC and KSA impediments. Chah Bahar should first be operationalised as a corridor to Afghanistan; the rest can wait. When this corridor is operationalised, Iran-Afghan ties will improve; Iran will begin to be perceived as a stabilising and constructive influence in Afghanistan by the world community. Afghanistan will be comfortable with this corridor since it enters Afghanistan through the relatively more secure W part of Afghanistan; an area that Iran can control very well from the security point of view. Ironically, even the USA will want to (and need to) use this corridor. India can build and operate it; which will address any lingering US misgivings, while Iran can provide the needed security. Russia will also bless this scheme. When this part of the operation will stabilise, Chah Bahar will become self-sustaining. That is when Part II of the plan kicks in. This part will be harder since there are already rival ports in the Gulf of Oman, such as Khor Fakkan and Salalah in Oman eating away at Dubai/Jebel Ali. But the Iranian transhipment business via Dubai/Jebel Ali can straight away be moved to Chah Bahar. Which is substantial as it is.
That is the near-term rod-map as I see it. Iran can't lose at all in this.

 

[raptor22]

Yeah I agree. Chabahar can be closest route to Europe,Russia and Central Asia for South Asian countries and also for Far East, like South Korea,Japan, Malaysia,Indonesia and even China.It's location is much more strategic than Dubai and it can bypass Dubai and become the regional trading hub.The only thing that held it back is political disagreements and to a lesser extent, minor security concerns that has been dealt with completely.

For Iran, other than being a great source of income, it can also help us completely bypass Dubai for importing goods.What's the reason.Iran has more coastline in Persian Gulf and sea of Oman than all neighboring Arab countries,it makes no sense that a city which is only a hundred miles away from Iran, re-export lots of goods to our country.Same for India and other Asian countries, hence Chabahar can be a new Dubai for India,also an export hub for Indian and Asian goods to Afghanistan, Central Asia,Russia, Caucasus and ultimately, Iraq, Turkey and Europe.Indeed it's a win-win-win for all parties,if only we overcome political difficulties.

What about Qeshm isle (biggest Persian gulf island)? I've heard if Persian gulf bridge (under construction) which connects Bandar Abbas to the island get eventually built it could bring a giant leap in our trade in Persian gulf which means Dubai is gonna get knocked down.

Ground broken for Persian Gulf Bridge

 

[Serpentine]

@Era_923; I don't know if there are any internal problems in Iran wrt Chah Bahar. The external issues with Chah Bahar relate mainly to USA and the GCC fears of losing primacy as a regional hub. Being familiar with Marine transportation; I see potential in Chah Bahar. But more about that later, right now let us only address the geo-political issues of Chah Bahar.

To bypass the GCC and KSA impediments. Chah Bahar should first be operationalised as a corridor to Afghanistan; the rest can wait. When this corridor is operationalised, Iran-Afghan ties will improve; Iran will begin to be perceived as a stabilising and constructive influence in Afghanistan by the world community. Afghanistan will be comfortable with this corridor since it enters Afghanistan through the relatively more secure W part of Afghanistan; an area that Iran can control very well from the security point of view. Ironically, even the USA will want to (and need to) use this corridor. India can build and operate it; which will address any lingering US misgivings, while Iran can provide the needed security. Russia will also bless this scheme. When this part of the operation will stabilise, Chah Bahar will become self-sustaining. That is when Part II of the plan kicks in. This part will be harder since there are already rival ports in the Gulf of Oman, such as Khor Fakkan and Salalah in Oman eating away at Dubai/Jebel Ali. But the Iranian transhipment business via Dubai/Jebel Ali can straight away be moved to Chah Bahar. Which is substantial as it is.
That is the near-term rod-map as I see it. Iran can't lose at all in this.

That's a correct analysis,there is no wishful thinking or too much optimism in it, it's the reality.And there is no internal problems for development of Chabahar, not that I'm aware of.As you mentioned, the main problem is the standoff with the west, which I feel is going to be solved soon.

What about Qeshm isle (biggest Persian gulf island)? I've heard if Persian gulf bridge (under construction) which connects Bandar Abbas to the island get eventually built it could bring a giant leap in our trade in Persian gulf which means Dubai is gonna get knocked down.

Ground broken for Persian Gulf Bridge

Of course, that's another great opportunity, it has some benefits other than Chabahar, it's much closer to Dubai, which can make the re-exporting of goods from Dubai even more unnecessary, and also it is near Bandar Abbas, which is a developed and fully operational harbor (the largest in Iran).Most of Iran's goods are imported from Bandar Abbas, so this bridge can be a major breakthrough for further development of Hormozgan province, it has the potential to even triple shipment capacities and import/export numbers by developing new ports at Qeshm island.

 

[Capt.Popeye]

That's a correct analysis,there is no wishful thinking or too much optimism in it, it's the reality.And there is no internal problems for development of Chabahar, not that I'm aware of.As you mentioned, the main problem is the standoff with the west, which I feel is going to be solved soon.

Actually, in the road map that I laid out; Chah Bahar can help to become the catalyst (the reason) for mending relations with the West (as I have said in earlier posts). I do think that process is already under way with India explaining to the US how Chah Bahar is beneficial to the region and (afaik) the US has accepted that view-point. Afghanistan will also make the same case with the West; if it derives benefits from it. Hence the urgent need to operationalise the freight corridor to Afghanistan.

About Bandar Abbas and Jazireh-e-Qeshm; there is one issue--both are inside the Hormuz Straits. Now traffic in the straits is steadily increasing with the attendant risks of becoming a bottleneck. Which is why the GCC developed Fujairah and Khor Fakkan in the Gulf of Oman. Therefore I'd go for Chah Bahar earlier.

 

[Farooq]

@somebozo

don't give me any thanks

 

[Capt.Popeye]

@somebozo

don't give me any thanks

Why do you say that? And what does it have to do with the topic at hand?

 

[United]

dubai is the only oxygen line to Iran in ICU.

80% Iran oil is traded in dubai.....dubai is only a trading place....ppl do busness coz its safe and they cant do the same in there own country.

food for thought Dubai does not export any oil!!!