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Drone crashes: what’s going wrong?

Zarvan

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Reports have emerged showing that a record number of US Air Force drones crashed in major accidents last year. The most accident-prone appears to be the Reaper UAV, which has become the military’s weapon of choice for conducting surveillance and airstrike missions against IS and other militant group. Claire Apthorp reports on what’s driving this increase in mishaps and how potential problems with the technology can be ironed out as the demand for drones grows.

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In many ways unmanned aerial systems (UAS) are a military platform the world loves to hate. Outside of defence circles, even in mainstream media, drones are often considered to be the first step toward a future where warfare is carried out by robots devoid of human input.

As a result, any crash or incident involving a UAS is always tasty fodder for the media, both because these incidents imply that the technology is unsafe, and because of the shroud of secrecy that can surround such events. Often the first news of a crash in a foreign theatre comes via local reports that filter through to the newswire, and on which officials usually refuse to comment as a matter of course.

A crash may be related to pilot error, technology failure or enemy strike, but official findings are rarely released to the public, for the same reason defence departments do not release information on where, why and how their other intelligence assets are operating in support of military operations. As a result it is impossible to know the extent to which technology failures, human factors or enemy action are to blame.

Whatever the cause, incidents involving large UAS, such as the Reaper and Predator operated by the US Air Force and Royal Air Force, among others, do happen. Indeed, the Washington Post reported in January that 20 of the US military's UAS "were destroyed or sustained at least $2m in damage in accidents [in 2015], the worst annual poll ever."

So, what's going wrong?

Learning from failure
Just like its US counterpart, the UK Ministry of Defence (MoD) has battled a public relations war over the safety of its unmanned systems. The high-profile Watchkeeper programme has recorded a number of incidents over its history, including three crashes in UK airspace.

The Watchkeeper airframe is based on Elbit Systems' Hermes 450 UAS, which has suffered a number of mishaps during deployments in the Middle East, and the MoD and has been keen to put lessons learned from these incidents to use in its development programme.

A service inquiry into one of these incidents - the crash of Hermes 450 (aircraft number ZK515) at Bastion Airfield in Afghanistan on 2 October 2011 - was carried out by the MoD in order to understand the circumstances and make recommendations to prevent reoccurrence.

"Just like its US counterpart, the UK Ministry of Defence (MoD) has battled a public relations war ."
The Military Aviation Authority investigation reported that ZK515 departed the airfield to conduct a routine 14-hour ISTAR sortie in an area covered by the same crew two days earlier. Engine air temperature during initial climb was noted as being higher than expected, although it stabilised within limits at operating altitude. Around two hours into the mission the engine air temperature increased again to 123°C and the crew decided to terminate the mission and bring the aircraft back to base.

Due to a busy airfield the UAS was required to hold prior to landing, and confusion over which runway could be used led to an aborted landing attempt. As the aircraft was climbing to hold again the engine temperature reached 138°C and the engine failed at an altitude of 3,926ft. The UAS struck a hangar before hitting the ground and coming to rest on an empty aircraft dispersal pan.

Human factors
While congealed oil in the engine's feed pipe was determined to be the cause of the engine failure, human factors were found to be much more relevant in the crash of ZK515.

The report said that contributory factors included "the H450 training system, selection procedure for UAS pilots, development of H450 pilot airmanship, captaincy skills and the experience and knowledge of the flying supervisors". During routine operations, the report said, these factors were not readily apparent "because the H450 system is relatively straightforward to operate and the tasking generally follows a very set pattern". Additionally, when H450 operations began at Bastion there was minimal infrastructure and low levels of manned aircraft traffic, but by the time of the incident the airfield had evolved into one of the busiest military airfields in operation.

The report stated: "The H450 contributory factors identified have become far more significant as Bastion has evolved, while RA training has not kept pace. In the case of this accident, these factors became critical when an initially straightforward engine problem was compounded by a lack of situational awareness, limited planning, captaincy issues and human factors into a high-workload emergency situation which ended with the aircraft crashing into Bastion airfield.'

Better training is needed
In 2012 the then Minister of State for the Armed Forces was asked during a Commons Debate what assessments had been made of the training provided to operators of Hermes 450 UAS following the eight crashes of the aircraft in Afghanistan between 2007 and 2012. He explained that an end-to-end review for army unmanned aerial systems training had recently been conducted, adding: "As a result, several changes have already been made to unmanned aerial systems training to increase airmanship standards in a number of areas, with further improvements to follow."

Watchkeeper classroom, simulation and live training was initially provided to the army by programme prime contractor Thales, with all training computer-aided and instructor led. It is now carried out by the army itself. The full virtual simulated training environment is designed to develop both technical and tactical training, while a part task trainer provides practical maintenance training.

Pilot shortages cause delays
However, the programme's woes continue, with information released by the MoD in September 2015 showing that pilot shortage continues to be a significant issue. At that time the army had access to only six Watchkeeper trained pilots (four military and two civilian) to operate its 36 aircraft, once again delaying the aircraft's full entry into service, which was originally planned for 2010, to the end of 2016.

Pilot shortages are troubling armed forces worldwide, with even the US Air Force struggling to address challenges in its UAS pilot workforce. A US Government Accountability Office (GAO) report published in March 2016 found that the air force has failed to implement recommendations from a previous GAO report published in April 2014. While action has been initiated on most of the recommendations regarding the air force's management of UAS pilots and training challenges, a number of issues remain.

"We found in our prior work that in recent years the air force has not provided a sufficient number of UAS pilots to meet requirements."
These challenges, all of which relate to struggles to recruit, train and retain UAS pilots, are a critical factor in UAS operations as the air force's existing pilots are overworked, often demoralised and potentially under-trained. Many of these factors are also mirrored in the US Army.

The GOA report said: "We found in our prior work that in recent years the air force has not provided a sufficient number of UAS pilots to meet requirements due to several factors including most notably the increase in demand for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance. As a result, the UAS workload has been performed by fewer pilots working more hours to accomplish the air force mission. In additional in our prior work, we found that the army has faced challenges ensuring that its pilots in UAS units that are not deployed conduct unit training to prepare them to perform their missions."

Cyber safety threats
Another challenge facing UAS operations is the cyber threat. A paper published by the NATO Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence in 2013 highlighted evidence that UAS are highly vulnerable to cyber attacks, pointing to the 2011 theft of a US RQ-170 Sentinel UAS by Iranian military forces - which was caused either by a GPS spoofing attack or by technological malfunction that caused the UAS to land in Iranian territory - as well as the threat of 'keylogging' attacks and exploitation of the communication links between the UAS and its ground control station to access sensitive data and/or take control of the UAS.

These threats create opportunities for the industry to continue its work to improve the technologies that protect UAS software to keep intelligence data safe from enemy snooping.

It's important to remember that in comparison to manned aircraft, UAS remain a relatively new technology, and they are also being deployed in theatres that are evolving more quickly than ever before. There are still issues with technology and training that need to be ironed out as the demand for drones grows; however, UAS have evolved into the weapon of choice for surveillance and airstrike missions in enemy territory because their benefits far outweigh their risks - an advantage that that is only going to grow as technology matures and operations become safer.






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There have been incidents involving large UAS, such as the Reaper and Predator operated by the US Air Force and Royal Air Force. Courtesy of UK MoD.

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A crash may be related to pilot error, technology failure or enemy strike, but official findings are rarely released to the public. Courtesy of US Army.






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The high-profile Watchkeeper programme has recorded a number of incidents over its history, including three crashes in UK airspace.

http://www.army-technology.com/features/featuredrone-crashes-whats-going-wrong-4892832/

@Horus @Quwa @Arsalan @MastanKhan @Oscar
 
It can be due to multiple factors
  1. Avionic failures
  2. Structural failures
  3. Off design flight conditions
Since the airframe is mainly made from composite materials, it ages over time and develops microcracks thorugh creep and fatigue (two different phenomena but both) can lead to structural failures in flight especially if turbulence is encountered. Also the designers cannot envisage all the conditions so reaper might be flying in off design conditions as UAVs are not designed as rigorously as an aircraft with cheaper materials.
 
drones crash all the time, I would bet at least 20% malfunction over their life time going by how many Predators and Reapers have crashed

same goes for Israel,China,Russia, and there drones.
 
drones crash all the time, I would bet at least 20% malfunction over their life time going by how many Predators and Reapers have crashed

same goes for Israel,China,Russia, and there drones.
The drones made by DJI have better survivability than those :)
 
The drones made by DJI have better survivability than those :)

I doubt hobbyist drones get as many flying hours as military drones :toast_sign:

these bad boys can stay in the air for 24 hours at a time
 
These drones don't have to pass many of the rigorous tests manned aircraft have to go through. It's more like "get it into the field tand we will deal with it as it goes". Especially since the predator was basically drafted into service.
 
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