Dr Hafeez Pasha: 8million people may go below poverty line in next 2 fiscals

[Śakra]

How the heck do you have a growing poverty rate???

 

[criticalerror]

You make valid points, in particular about education. I agree that post 1998 nucear tests the defence budget should have been capped. I have raised this point, in particular that we don't need a navy, just a coastguard would do. Hell we hardly export much anyway so it's like we have huge trade routes to defend. And our stamina/finances are so low that we won't fight India longer then weeks. The good thing being this applies to India as well which is why Indo-Pak wars are short, weekly affairs. This means even if Indian Navy blockeded Pakistan before the it would bite the war would be over.

Also I think the days of huge armoured battles are over. Thus we have no need for huge armoured corps. I guess what I am saying there is certainly scope for downsizing the conventional military. I also agree the army/security apparatus has utterly failed to create a safe, stable Pakistan. The recurrent acts of terrorism are a reminder of that and blaming outsiders is just childish escapism.

On the other hand we have to understand that Pakistan is nothing without the military. Think about this. What unites Pakistan? Leaving that joke about "Pakistan kya Matlab" the reality is it is just the army. Every major city has it's own culture, cuisine, ethnic group. To people in Karachi Pakstan is Indian Biryani and Lucknow, Indian culture conveniently flogged as 'desi'. Peshawar has it's own culture etc. This reality is reflected in politics. Each ethnic group is vying for power and a say in this Pakistan. The northern Punjab centred on Lahore have stood firm by PML-N. Rural Sindh centred on Larkhana have rallied around PPP. PTI was until recently more a K-Pk force that has spread out from it's Pashtun base. Each group will call the other traitor. In this mess the only central gravity is provided by the army. Or K-Pk along with Pashtun areas would have broken off from Pakistan. Sindh would have cracked along the Sindhi/Mohajor divide with civil war to make Syria look like a nursery. Punjab would have gone it's own direction.

So maybe it's not such a bad thing that Pakistan has a huge military. It acts like a huge anchor that holds the chaos together.

I agree with it entirely, except the part where you blame the military for lack of security. You have to be a mass surveillance state the size of the US to stop terrorism the way you want it to(blanket defeat). Also note their budget and reach.

Terrorism is a problem even in the developed west, EU, where military spending is not so much. So your argument that recurrent acts of terrorism are totally preventable with the geopolitics and resources we have is the only childish escapism here. What has utterly failed is your attempt to put the responsibility of the lack of security/ stability squarely at the army’s feet.i wish it were as childish and black and white as what you make it out to be.

Pakistan army has pulled this country from the brink many times, the latest example being the past decade. You might look at the glass half empty, i am a more half full kind of guy. Stop wasting your breath on non-issues.

 

[VCheng]

So maybe it's not such a bad thing that Pakistan has a huge military. It acts like a huge anchor that holds the chaos together.

A true blessing, and a horrid curse at the same time.

 

[Yankee-stani]

I think I have said many times now. I don't expect much improvement on the eco

You make valid points, in particular about education. I agree that post 1998 nucear tests the defence budget should have been capped. I have raised this point, in particular that we don't need a navy, just a coastguard would do. Hell we hardly export much anyway so it's like we have huge trade routes to defend. And our stamina/finances are so low that we won't fight India longer then weeks. The good thing being this applies to India as well which is why Indo-Pak wars are short, weekly affairs. This means even if Indian Navy blockeded Pakistan before the it would bite the war would be over.

Also I think the days of huge armoured battles are over. Thus we have no need for huge armoured corps. I guess what I am saying there is certainly scope for downsizing the conventional military. I also agree the army/security apparatus has utterly failed to create a safe, stable Pakistan. The recurrent acts of terrorism are a reminder of that and blaming outsiders is just childish escapism.

On the other hand we have to understand that Pakistan is nothing without the military. Think about this. What unites Pakistan? Leaving that joke about "Pakistan kya Matlab" the reality is it is just the army. Every major city has it's own culture, cuisine, ethnic group. To people in Karachi Pakstan is Indian Biryani and Lucknow, Indian culture conveniently flogged as 'desi'. Peshawar has it's own culture etc. This reality is reflected in politics. Each ethnic group is vying for power and a say in this Pakistan. The northern Punjab centred on Lahore have stood firm by PML-N. Rural Sindh centred on Larkhana have rallied around PPP. PTI was until recently more a K-Pk force that has spread out from it's Pashtun base. Each group will call the other traitor. In this mess the only central gravity is provided by the army. Or K-Pk along with Pashtun areas would have broken off from Pakistan. Sindh would have cracked along the Sindhi/Mohajor divide with civil war to make Syria look like a nursery. Punjab would have gone it's own direction.

So maybe it's not such a bad thing that Pakistan has a huge military. It acts like a huge anchor that holds the chaos together.

You know what in 2015-2016 they were rumored circling around that Raheel Shraif was planning a coup and I remember sighs on the roads clambering for that to happen many people wanted to happen I think he would have done it but I think he made the right move instead of repeating what Ayub Khan,Zia Ul Haq,or Musharraf ways because its the same cycle we get some degree of stability and economic growth but in their 2nd term they become civilian heads then make deals with cronies to stay power plus once the jahlil awam gets frustrated these electbles bitch moan and military goes back to barracks exception was Zia he died in a plane crash,rince repeat we find the and families and politicians for decades be it the PPP or PMLN also compared to other states in the past we played geo politics good for short term goals not long term eg-The Afghan conflict brewing since the late 1970s and effects on Pakistan,now back to Raheel I think he did the right thing step aside go to Saudi let Bajwa take the healm and groom IK and the PTI,IK is not perfect nor is the PTI party but he played by the rules still lost in 2013 sadly but Army groomed him I think its good the Army is holding feet to fire these days the ball is rolling sure slip ups here are there but we have to admit Pakistan is in evolution stage we are evolving from military spartan like state to more guided quasi democracy it's not perfect but as the masses mature and grow I think good steps and changes will occur plus we have the geo politics card once more again the Yanks need us for their departure from Afg,China with CPEC Saudi pooling money for refinary,Iran getting squished in need for allies,Turkey increasingly looking Eastwards we have many cards in deck let's use them wisely and hope for the best

 

[VCheng]

How the heck do you have a growing poverty rate???

We don't. And if if we do, it is still better than India's. And if it isn't, it must be a good thing. So there. No further argument is possible.

 

[Indus Pakistan]

You know what in 2015-2016 they were rumored circling around that Raheel Shraif was planning a coup

Honestly, I don't think it's about military coups etc. Even if Raheel had taken over the basic issues informing the malaise in Pakistan would remain as they have despite many military governments that have ruled Pakistan. What we need is equilibrium and a fair representation of Pakistan that is informed by it's people. The fact is some groups are over represented and others under represented in Pakistan. The over represented think they are Pakistan. That must change.

 

[Enigma SIG]

You forgot wasting it on a grand military. It's the second largest part of our budget after debt servicing. That's why whenever articles about the economy are posted you have people like @Enigma SIG calling it foreign propaganda and demanding the press be muzzled. They don't like it when people shine a light on our economic statistics and government budget.

Sure, go ahead and disband the military.

 

[HammerHead081]

I would hardly call that wasting. What do you propose? That defense spending is what kept you safe and still does. Reducing it won’t fix anything when you don’t question what happens to the rest. Where does the rest of the budget go? Atleast this part is being utilized properly. Just sloganeering won’t get you anything. Also i advise you to read the economic statistics and the budget before jumping to conclusions .

All defense budget will be cut in more than half if our government decides to give up Kashmir and make the boundary which is now as official boundary. But we all know that army won't let this happen, there egos will be hurt and also their defense budget will be decreased. Giving up kashmir is one of the major ways we can get out of this financial crisis.

 

[criticalerror]

All defense budget will be cut in more than half if our government decides to give up Kashmir and make the boundary which is now as official boundary. But we all know that army won't let this happen, there egos will be hurt and also their defense budget will be decreased. Giving up kashmir is one of the major ways we can get out of this financial crisis.

And what would happen then? That same money that is saved from Defence spending will magically disappear and we will be going to the IMF again for a bailout. As i said, this is just propaganda to hide the inefficiency of previous governments. Where does the rest of the money go?

Also per your stats , if we halve the defence budget we will be out of financial crisis. Half of defence spending is 600 billion. You seriously think our economy can recover with 600b Rs a year? This argument has no logic in it. But yeah continue with the same.

Also note, resolution of Kashmir is just one problem solved. India does not accept Pakistan(Akhand Bharat nonsense). The world does not want us to exist, especially as an important part of CPEC. They want to break us into pieces. So stop deluding yourself thinking peace with India means peace forever.

 

[Crusher]

Honestly, I don't think it's about military coups etc. Even if Raheel had taken over the basic issues informing the malaise in Pakistan would remain as they have despite many military governments that have ruled Pakistan. What we need is equilibrium and a fair representation of Pakistan that is informed by it's people. The fact is some groups are over represented and others under represented in Pakistan. The over represented think they are Pakistan. That must change.

Totally agree with you on this, some groups are just disproportionately represented even on this forum, take for example my area Gujranwala division, it has around 17 million population and how many are active posters here on this forum, literally very few. On the other hand Karachi also has the similar amount of population but I have noticed from the history of this forum that no less than 50% of the pakistani posters on this forum on any topic have always been Karachites or expats having roots from Karachi. Actually not just on this forum even all the pakistani forums that exist on the net the situation is the same, this even applies to the commentators under the articles of newspapers's online editions. I don't say it is bad, I just feel that 80% of Pakistanis somehow are not represented on the discussions taking place on these forums, the reason for it probably is that people belonging to our regions have not much interest in political discussions but even those who do have interest probably lack expressing themselves in English language and hence are mostly absent from these english language pakistani online forums and newspaper comment sections.

 

[Proudpakistaniguy]

oi - facts have no place here; only worship of holy cows. Why is PTI paying back debts? NS government didn't. PTI should borrow another $40 billion to pay off this debt and that way there is no problem right?!

You think previous governments had no debt to pay when they were in government . I have been listening this arguments from all present and past government that they had inherited economy in poor shape . Every sitting government blame previous government for taking loans and not spending them well. its same old cycle of blame game and not taking any responsibility to fix economic crisis

You are suggesting as if PTI government has no clue about condition of economy before election when they were bashing IMF and those who went to IMF. Shadow finance minister of PTI was probably sleeping? Why PTI were making tall claims when they knew the situation of economy? You got the vote of poor people because you promised them some reliefs which previous government could not i.e less unemployment , no inflations, no increase in gas, electric, petrol, medicine, food, housing prices etc

 

[Indus Pakistan]

You think previous governments had no debt to pay when they were in government . I have been listening this arguments from all present and past government that they had inherited economy in poor shape . Every sitting government blame previous government for taking loans and not spending them well. its same old cycle of blame game and not taking any responsibility to fix economic crisis

It's not the fact that previous governments had no debt. Indeed as you said they did. But it's the scale. The magnitude of debt that has been dumped on the PTI government. This infographic should make it abundantly clear. And if does not, nothing will.

* He said that in next two years, Pakistan need to pay back $40 billion loan which looks horrible


https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/dr-h...-below-poverty-line-in-next-2-fiscals.616550/

 

[Proudpakistaniguy]

It's not the fact that previous governments had no debt. Indeed as you said they did. But it's the scale. The magnitude of debt that has been dumped on the PTI government. This infographic should make it abundantly clear. And if does not, nothing will.

* He said that in next two years, Pakistan need to pay back $40 billion loan which looks horrible


https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/dr-h...-below-poverty-line-in-next-2-fiscals.616550/

Economic growths depend on many factors. Different governments faced different challenges during their tenure. Some had to deals with war on terror/terrorism, political instability etc while others had no such issues. Previous government was also spending money on projects like metro/motoryway/housing schemes/susta atta /laptop distribution/free primary education and these schmes meant for political gains and vote bank rather than brining long term economic reforms . Its same story in this government and we will see what they leave for next government and how much money next government will need to borrow to run the country....Fault of PTI is that they promised something which they have no capacity to deliver....why made tall claims to gain votes when knew that economy is in poor shape and will not let these happen

 

[Indus Pakistan]

why made tall claims to gain votes when knew that economy is in poor shape and will not let these happen

Tell me which government in Pakistan, in Europe makes 'short claims'?

And you slipped past the central point. Yes, previous governments inherited debt but this time the magnitude is on scale never seen before. You can see the chart and tell me which government faced a ountain as large as PTI?

 

[Proudpakistaniguy]

Tell me which government in Pakistan, in Europe makes 'short claims'?

Imran khan said that he is different than others. Main qoum se hamesha sach bolohoon ga. You should have realistic goals that you can achieve

And you slipped past the central point. Yes, previous governments inherited debt but this time the magnitude is on scale never seen before. You can see the chart and tell me which government faced a ountain as large as PTI?

I don't know how much truth is there in your stats . I have seen debate about economy between politicians(PTI vs PML(N) vs PPP) where they were all brining their own number and stats to prove how good they were as compare to others . Its easy to manipulate stats. Previous government did not delivered because of which people rejected them and gave chance to PTI. Now its time for pti to deliver. They should more concern about what will be the magnitude of loans/debt for next government? otherwise Next government will be blaming PTI in same way as PTI is blaming previous government. Nawaz was blaming Zaradri ..zardari was blaming mushraraf and this trend will continue for infinite period

@Indus Pakistan see the arguments of other side about borrowing


Dreams vs realities

I am lucky to have many friends who support different political parties but, more importantly, who understand that friendships are far more important than political affiliations. These days, though, some of my friends who supported or still support the PTI have become a bit defensive.

Perhaps it’s my fault; I can’t help but ask them if they are happy with the ‘tabdeeli’ they are seeing. A very few now despair – like Hasan Nisar Sahib – and say that they are surprised at how ill-prepared the PTI was. Their ire is especially directed at the PTI’s economic team, which they blame for the troubles the party has brought to our country’s economy.

But the majority of them still support the PTI and fall in one of two categories. First, those who say it is still early to judge the PTI; and that six months is not enough of a period to see results. I of course try to probe, asking them if they are seeing any initial results? Or, if it’s too early for even initial results, are they satisfied with the effort the PTI is making? Is there actually anything more to the PTI than just pleasing rhetoric? Is the direction of the government right? It’s difficult to get clear answers to these questions from my friends.

The second group is those who say that the problems the PML-N left behind were so huge that it will take the PTI much longer to change things. Some of them add that the PTI has to clean the mess of 70 years, meaning that not one government in their eyes has done much for Pakistan.

I, of course, say that if the PML-N and other previous governments were such a problem then wouldn’t their leaving government have in any case solved a lot of problems? Shouldn’t the fact that you have such non-corrupt, intelligent, well-prepared, humble, focused leaders at the helm of affairs make a huge difference? Am I just blinded by partisanship and not being able to see the improvement that is all around us?

Because what I see is that inflation is higher today than in the last four years, government borrowing is increasing at a faster rate than ever in our history, interest rates are higher today than the last four years, tax collection targets are not being met, deficit this year is expected to be higher than ever before and government expenditures, in spite of the PTI’s ‘austerity’ measures, are also expected to be the highest ever in our history.

My friends of course answer that the PTI is borrowing to repay loans that the PML-N took. But then I say the same thing about us and the PPP: that the PML-N took loans to repay the loans taken by the PPP. And the PPP can say the same thing about the loans it took – that it took loans to repay loans taken by General Musharraf. And either we are all equally correct or all equally incorrect. But it can’t be that the PPP and PML-N are wrong and the PTI is right.

Then there is also the little issue of the magnitude of loans being taken. If today the PTI is taking considerably more loans than the PML-N ever took – and it is – then you can’t argue that these loans are just to repay the existing debt. And in fact the PTI is not just paying interest on past loans, it is also funding current government expenditures from new loans.

When I make this argument, my friends have only one comeback to me: they ask me if I would like another cup of tea and a sandwich. Being a Memon and a noonie, I can never say no to tea or food so I stop arguing and settle for hot tea and a nice sandwich.

But my PTI friends, especially the impressionable ones (is there another kind?) must be quietly wondering at night when they can’t fall asleep (dare I say due to loadshedding?) what happened to their expectations. Forget the $200 billion stashed abroad; that was never going to come. But what about the $12 billion being taken outside Pakistan every year? Surely given that the PTI has assumed power, that money laundering must have stopped. Why are we not seeing some of those dollars in our State Bank?

Of course to PTI supporters it is an axiom of faith that all PML-N ministers were corrupt. (After all, why would an honest politician not join the PTI?) And PML-N ministers must have stolen billion of rupees (or dollars or pounds!). Now that the PTI has taken power, those billions should be saved. Why don’t we see any of that money in government coffers? Why is the PTI government borrowing as if there’s no tomorrow?

And when my PTI friends go to work in the morning after breakfast (assuming there was gas in the stove) and stop for inexpensive petrol on the way (after all, the PTI was supposed to pass on all savings from the decline in oil prices to consumers) they must wonder why, given the dream team Imran Khan has brought with him, they are not seeing any improvement in governance.

I mean how do you compare the “ineffective” and “lethargic” Shehbaz Sharif with the Wasim Akram of politics, Sardar Usman Buzdar, a man oozing with vision, charisma and capability? (It occurs to me that, given the oft-repeated comparison of Wasim Akram with Usman Buzdar, one of them should be very pleased but the other must hate it).

Talking about Shehbaz Sharif brings me to his brief speech in the National Assembly, before the finance minister presented his second mini-budget in three months. In his speech, Leader of the Opposition Shehbaz Sharif criticised the prime minister in the same way PM Khan used to criticise government leaders when he was in opposition. This must have offended the prime minister greatly, and in a fit of rage and to teach the opposition a lesson he had the National Assembly session prorogued.

This is the first time in Pakistan’s history that after the presentation of a finance bill the government has prorogued the National Assembly without passing the bill. But such was the anger of the prime minister at being spoken to in a manner he considered below his dignity that the session had to be prorogued.

For a long time now, former prime minister Mian Nawaz Sharif has been accused of acting like a Mughal king. However, those of us who have known him and have worked closely with him know him to be a kind, gentle and considerate man who always has time for others and is tolerant and polite to a fault.

The man accusing Nawaz Sharif of having a royal demeanour was none other than PM Khan himself. But the first time he’s been criticised in person in parliament, he shows intolerance worthy of a medieval European king.

I am actually glad that the PTI doesn’t get any legislation passed from the assembly; I fear it might introduce into legislation a ‘contempt of prime minister’ law, much on the lines of lèse-majesté laws in medieval Europe.

https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/425262-dreams-vs-realities