Major Shaitan Singh
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By the end of next month, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) will be cutting 50,000 military officials and 250,000 soldiers from its armed forces. The nation has a total of 1.19 million armed forces at present. If the plan is put into practice, it will see one quarter of the DPRK armed forces cut from service. This unprecedented move has triggered diverse speculation.
Some believe that DPRK's sudden announcement of the reduction is intended to improve the country's economic conditions; others hold that the DPRK has completed its nuclear weapons development so it needs to shrink its traditional armed forces.
Relevant South Korean government personnel have said that if this news is true, it means the DPRK is very sure of its military power and very likely to have indeed completed nuclear development.
Japanese media believe the decision was made under the DPRK's guiding principle that the country develops its nuclear weapons and economy at the same time. It also indicated that top leader Kim Jong-un is very confident in the nuclear arms development and safeguarding the security of his country.
It is no news that the DPRK has started up economic reform. Most recently, Kim went on an inspection tour of factories affiliated with the military, in particular those factories producing daily necessities. His actions show he is considering reforming those factories and the reduction in armed forces is expected to mainly target those specific factories as Kim wants to separate them from the military. It could increase the domestic supply of goods, improve the capabilities and efficiency of the armed forces and sharply reduce their non-combat expenses.
The move also suggests the DPRK is capable of protecting itself using its nuclear weapons and wants to develop its navy and air forces, which lag far behind those of South Korea. So far the DPRK has conducted three nuclear tests. The third one enables the DPRK to put nuclear weapons to use in a large amount of medium-range and short-range missiles, thus developing a strategic deterrence against South Korea and American forces stationed in South Korea.
If these speculations are true, they suggest the DPRK could use its nuclear weapons to prevent the invasion of the joint U.S.-South Korean forces. Under such circumstances, the DPRK needn't have to keep a large army. Previously, without any naval or airborne advantages, the DPRK had to maintain a large army to deter joint U.S.-South Korean attacks. The nation can now, however, greatly diminish the role of its military if it puts nuclear weapons into play. Nevertheless, the shortcomings of its navy and air forces will come to surface either way.
Why are the DPRK's navy and air forces not on par with those of South Korea? The DPRK navy presently only has many small old ships of inferior technology; their featured weaponry barely carries any real fighting force. Faced with South Korean navy's new KDX-1/2/3 destroyer, Type 209 and Type 214 submarines, the DPRK has very few chances of winning a naval battle. Meanwhile, the DPRK's most powerful Mig-29 fighters cold not counter South Korea's KF-16 fighters and F-15K fighters. Moreover, the South Korean air force also features the highly-advanced E-737 Peace Eye and its overall number of sophisticated fighters far exceeds that of the DPRK. We should also not forget about the 30,000 well-equipped American soldiers stationed in South Korea who play a decisive role on the Peninsula.
By cutting its armed forces, the DPRK does not intend to use the money saved to focus on the nuclear development, but instead to focus on laying a foundation for its future navy and air force development. The DPRK has dispatched senior officials to both China and Russia and, apart from the six-party talks, their visits might involve the purchase of weapons from the two countries.
Although China and Russia are not likely to openly sell arms, especially advanced arms, to the DPRK, there might be such deals waiting under the table. The DPRK is quite likely to have conducted exchanges with both China and Russia regarding the reduction of its armed forces. It might even ink secret arms deals with the two countries during Kim's visit (it is speculated Kim will pay a visit to China and Russia within the year); in other words, by reducing its armed forces the DPRK has won permission to purchase advanced arms, especially arms used by the navy and air forces, from both countries.
Either way, the military cut down is a positive signal to both the DPRK and the Korean Peninsula. Whether Kim intends to reform the economy or to cut down on military logistics, the move remains a bold step forward and is of positive significance to the Peninsula's peace talks.
DPRK's military cuts send out positive signal - China.org.cn
Some believe that DPRK's sudden announcement of the reduction is intended to improve the country's economic conditions; others hold that the DPRK has completed its nuclear weapons development so it needs to shrink its traditional armed forces.
Relevant South Korean government personnel have said that if this news is true, it means the DPRK is very sure of its military power and very likely to have indeed completed nuclear development.
Japanese media believe the decision was made under the DPRK's guiding principle that the country develops its nuclear weapons and economy at the same time. It also indicated that top leader Kim Jong-un is very confident in the nuclear arms development and safeguarding the security of his country.
It is no news that the DPRK has started up economic reform. Most recently, Kim went on an inspection tour of factories affiliated with the military, in particular those factories producing daily necessities. His actions show he is considering reforming those factories and the reduction in armed forces is expected to mainly target those specific factories as Kim wants to separate them from the military. It could increase the domestic supply of goods, improve the capabilities and efficiency of the armed forces and sharply reduce their non-combat expenses.
The move also suggests the DPRK is capable of protecting itself using its nuclear weapons and wants to develop its navy and air forces, which lag far behind those of South Korea. So far the DPRK has conducted three nuclear tests. The third one enables the DPRK to put nuclear weapons to use in a large amount of medium-range and short-range missiles, thus developing a strategic deterrence against South Korea and American forces stationed in South Korea.
If these speculations are true, they suggest the DPRK could use its nuclear weapons to prevent the invasion of the joint U.S.-South Korean forces. Under such circumstances, the DPRK needn't have to keep a large army. Previously, without any naval or airborne advantages, the DPRK had to maintain a large army to deter joint U.S.-South Korean attacks. The nation can now, however, greatly diminish the role of its military if it puts nuclear weapons into play. Nevertheless, the shortcomings of its navy and air forces will come to surface either way.
Why are the DPRK's navy and air forces not on par with those of South Korea? The DPRK navy presently only has many small old ships of inferior technology; their featured weaponry barely carries any real fighting force. Faced with South Korean navy's new KDX-1/2/3 destroyer, Type 209 and Type 214 submarines, the DPRK has very few chances of winning a naval battle. Meanwhile, the DPRK's most powerful Mig-29 fighters cold not counter South Korea's KF-16 fighters and F-15K fighters. Moreover, the South Korean air force also features the highly-advanced E-737 Peace Eye and its overall number of sophisticated fighters far exceeds that of the DPRK. We should also not forget about the 30,000 well-equipped American soldiers stationed in South Korea who play a decisive role on the Peninsula.
By cutting its armed forces, the DPRK does not intend to use the money saved to focus on the nuclear development, but instead to focus on laying a foundation for its future navy and air force development. The DPRK has dispatched senior officials to both China and Russia and, apart from the six-party talks, their visits might involve the purchase of weapons from the two countries.
Although China and Russia are not likely to openly sell arms, especially advanced arms, to the DPRK, there might be such deals waiting under the table. The DPRK is quite likely to have conducted exchanges with both China and Russia regarding the reduction of its armed forces. It might even ink secret arms deals with the two countries during Kim's visit (it is speculated Kim will pay a visit to China and Russia within the year); in other words, by reducing its armed forces the DPRK has won permission to purchase advanced arms, especially arms used by the navy and air forces, from both countries.
Either way, the military cut down is a positive signal to both the DPRK and the Korean Peninsula. Whether Kim intends to reform the economy or to cut down on military logistics, the move remains a bold step forward and is of positive significance to the Peninsula's peace talks.
DPRK's military cuts send out positive signal - China.org.cn
