graphican
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I am writing a response as a Pakistani who have listened to Indian narrative, studied events as they happened and have devised a logical conclusion. My source of learning is from both countries and here I am presenting my chain of thoughts and conclusions. I specially urge Indians to see this side of the coin if it is not a patriotic crime for them.
India has made multiple assumptions on Pulwama Incident that I am discussing below.
Assumption #1: Pakistan's state is involved in Pulwama
No. Its “mere assumption” and “accusation without evidence”. India the blamer does need to provide evidence of Pakistan's involvement - and India has none. But let's deduce logically and see if Pakistan could be a beneficiary of this incident.
Wrong timing
To deny investment in Pakistan
By @graphican
23rd Feb, 2019
India has made multiple assumptions on Pulwama Incident that I am discussing below.
Assumption #1: Pakistan's state is involved in Pulwama
No. Its “mere assumption” and “accusation without evidence”. India the blamer does need to provide evidence of Pakistan's involvement - and India has none. But let's deduce logically and see if Pakistan could be a beneficiary of this incident.
Wrong timing
- Pakistan would not sabotage 20+ Billion dollars of investment at a time when it needed money like oxygen. Orchestrating incident in India just 3 days before visit of Saudi Crown Prince doesn't make sense. Pakistan would not wish anything like this at this time.
- July 26, 2018 - PM Imran Khan's offered dialogue to further peace process with words “You take one step, we would take two”. Pakistan wanted dialogue, India said “no”.
- Sep 21, 2018 - Foreign Ministers of Pakistan an India were to meet in UN - India made excuse of postage stamps that were published months before PTI government came into power, visibly an excuse. Pakistan wanted to initiate dialogue - India said "no".
- 23 Nov, 2018 - Pakistan is opening Kartarpur Coordidor as a peace initiative. State of Pakistan invited state of India to do it for Sikh brothers. Two officials participated from India in their personal capacity while the sate of India - said "no”.
- 19 Feb, 2019 - In PM’s address after Pulwama, Imran Khan offered India dialogue including discussion on terrorism - India is yet to answer.
- Pakistan army has eliminated terrorism from Pakistan, but Afghan war is culminating with US withdrawal being planned. It's no time for Pakistan to sabotage USA/Indian withdrawal from Afghanistan and face head-on war with India on the opposite borders. Rather it is in the best interest of Pakistan to establish peace on its opposite borders and it would not sabotage or want to sabotage much awaited peace when it is within reach.
- Until there is an evidence in hand, no one from Pakistan is involved in Pulwama.
- Executor is Kashmiri, supposed master-mind is said to be Afghan. No backing, financing, communication or intrusion from Pakistan is reported. No one from Pakistan owned the attack. It’s a video aired by an individual who claims to be from an organisation already banned in Pakistan. This is not an “ownership of crime by the criminal” but impostering - still lacking links with Pakistan.
- Kashmir movement is on the rise without Pakistan's help. Pakistan doesn’t need to crate a major incident like Pulwama to pull global attention. Pakistan is a party to Kashmir dispute but this incident has not helped Kashmir liberation movement in anyway.
- Why would Pakistan do Pulwama? If you try to find gains for Pakistan - you will find there are none. No matter how yo put the equation, it doesn’t computer in the favour of Pakistan, help Pakistan as a state or help Kashmiris for their liberation movement. Pakistan has absolutely no strategic reason to conduct or support Pulwama.
To deny investment in Pakistan
- The incident happened on 14th Feb just before Muhammad Bin Salman came into Pakistan on 17th Feb 2019. India had time to subvert Muhammad Bin Salman’s visit and deny Pakistan its much needed financial relief. Because of this incident, India had a chance which didn’t exist previously.
- Immediately after the incident, Modi rushed for “global isolation of Pakistan” were all efforts were put to deny financial assistance to Pakistan including pressurising IMF to stop loan for Pakistan, and trying to put Pakistan in black list of FATF.
- Why would India jump to deny Pakistan financial assistance if problem was related to terrorism in Kashmir? If you consider India orchestrated Pulwama to gain something for itself, Indian actions will make sense.
- India's official policy has always been "no engagement with the Taliban" and fears it would lose relevance in Afghanistan after US withdrawal. Linking Taliban with Kashmir means India will have a say and some relevance as USA will need to ensure it doesn’t throw India under the buss with its departure.
- In his admission video, Adil Ahmed Dar is shown with Nato ammunition, available to Afghans Taliban hinting they are now supporting Kashmir liberation.
- Abdul Rashid Ghazi, the said master-mind of Pulwama is an Afghan Taliban instead of Pakistani.
- Adil Ahmed Khan was captured by India with his gun on terrorism charges in Sep 2017. How could a person under Indian custody carried out attacks against India itself? Was he released even though he and two other terrorists (who India killed) were found with guns?
- India has been blatantly trying to synthesize evidence against Pakistan. First they said Ghazi Abdul Rashid is the master mind who was killed in Lal masjid Incident back in 2007 - then it was a young boy who was photoshopped over the body of “Guilherme Leão”, a Brazilian police officer, and when finally India claimed it killed the master mind, and stung twice, they didn’t show his image.
- What is need of fabrication if your case is genuine? Why would India tell lies if it has truth to offer before the world?
- Pakistan had offered India help in Mumbai incident which India refused, and here again India is refusing Pakistan’s offers to help in investigation. Assured by PM Imran Khan, and also by Mohammad Bin Salman, India’s refusal to involve Pakistan into investigation speaks volumes of its own ill intention behind this event.
- How did Adil Ahmed dar knew about the movement of Indian convoys? The road where this incident happened was closed for traffic for several days and there was no traffic. Thus It was a surprise Indian movement as previously wether may have been preventing their movement. Who from Indian army gave inside news of convey movement to the attacker?
- How could a car filled with explosives crossed 7 Indian check-posts on the road? India says it probably used a “side road” without finding a need to investigate the matter further.
- India operates its own home-made (and USA marketed) Explosive Detection Kits which are already in use in Kashmir. How could India not detect explosive as big as 350 KG supposedly transported from Pakistan, kept in Kashmir and carried near its military convoy without detection?
- Attacker picked a non-strategic target. Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) offers assistance in establishing law and order instead of active combat operations. If the attacker actually wanted to harm India, why did he picked police instead of soldiers? Was it by design?
- Attack was targeted towards lower Hindu casts. Among “40 jawans were primarily from lower-caste communities. In all, they comprised 19 jawans from Other Backward Classes (or backward castes), seven from Scheduled Castes, five from Scheduled Tribes, four from upper-caste backgrounds, one high-caste Bengali, three Jat Sikhs, and one Muslim. Was it a decision to harm “lower cats” by design and not the decision making class?
- India tried to use Pulwama in an apparently irrelevant case against Kulbhushan Yadev in International Court of Justice. If India could cry tears globally (and if they were accepted by the world), it may have been able to get sympathies in ICJ.
- Modi has been defeated in 5 Indian states and needed something to ride back into politics. After discovering its dwindling popularity, nothing much can be done to improve performance or public image - except starting a war with the neighbour. It was doable and it was done.
- Instead of acting against Pakistan, India wanted to be seen angry in the media more than on the borders.
- If you think, Pulwama can give India much - but India has nothing to lose as a result. It hasn’t lost soldiers, it hasn’t lost a military installation, it hasn’t lost geopolitically or politically within the country or anything against Pakistan.
- Rather India has gained everything as a result. Like in Mumbai terrorist attacks when India was able to earn global sympathies leaving Pakistan to apologise and offer explanations. That strategy had left India with an upper hand then - and looks like India is in search of another one.
By @graphican
23rd Feb, 2019
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