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ELITE MEMBER
- Joined
- Apr 24, 2007
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Although both Turkey and Egypt have threatened to engage in military confrontation by marking Sirte and Jufra as red lines, no country seems to want to engage in direct fighting here. That is why both sides are talking about resolving the crisis through political talks. The beginning of such talks mediated by the United Nations and the main obstacle in the way of a ceasefire is the control of Sirte and Jufra. Military confrontation can be avoided if both sides agree on a formula such as the withdrawal of LNA forces or the joint presence of GNA and LNA, leaving the control of Sirte and Juffra in the hands of international forces. The future of Libya can then be determined through negotiations. That possibility is even greater because the Egyptian military's capabilities are now at an all-time low, no matter how threatening CC is in the war. Although the country has shown heroism in front of the people of its unarmed country, the members of the army have been accustomed to trade and luxury in various ways. This is not the case in Turkey.
Even then, the United Arab Emirates and even Saudi Arabia would like to call on Egypt in Libya to engage in a conflict with Turkey. In this gap, Israel will be able to permanently expand its borders to the West Bank and the Jordan Valley. On the other hand, the ongoing peace process in Syria through the Russia-Iran-Turkey agreement will be prolonged. The humiliating Lausanne Treaty of 2023 to break up the post-World War I Ottoman Caliphate is coming to an end. Then there will be no obligation for Turkey to limit itself. The country will be able to be more active in extracting its natural resources. Some parties may have a strategy to involve Turkey's power in the complex cycle of war before the time comes. However, it is also true that Turkey's initial success in military tests in Syria and Libya has given the country the status of an influential regional power. All in all, the situation in Libya needs to be considered on the larger canvas of the Middle East. There seems to be a lot more to come, on which much depends on the future of the country.
Even then, the United Arab Emirates and even Saudi Arabia would like to call on Egypt in Libya to engage in a conflict with Turkey. In this gap, Israel will be able to permanently expand its borders to the West Bank and the Jordan Valley. On the other hand, the ongoing peace process in Syria through the Russia-Iran-Turkey agreement will be prolonged. The humiliating Lausanne Treaty of 2023 to break up the post-World War I Ottoman Caliphate is coming to an end. Then there will be no obligation for Turkey to limit itself. The country will be able to be more active in extracting its natural resources. Some parties may have a strategy to involve Turkey's power in the complex cycle of war before the time comes. However, it is also true that Turkey's initial success in military tests in Syria and Libya has given the country the status of an influential regional power. All in all, the situation in Libya needs to be considered on the larger canvas of the Middle East. There seems to be a lot more to come, on which much depends on the future of the country.
