Cyclone Phet approaching Pakistan’s coastal areas

[Evil Flare]

 

[SpArK]

Cyclones in arabian sea is rare when we compare it to bay of bengal.. any updates on it Aamir??

 

[Hyde]

Allah khayr karay - We are already in trouble after WoT and Water spillin in Ataabad, Khunza. I hope not any other disaster takes place in Pakistan and its sorrounding countries

 

[Evil Flare]

---------- Post added at 12:07 AM ---------- Previous post was at 12:06 AM ----------

Just watch on CNN News ...

Its will head to Pakistan INDIA Border ..

God save Karachi

 

[SpArK]

Something is wrong with the world these days... too much of chaos and events..

 

[Evil Flare]

this is very bad news for the monsoon season b/c it will suck all the moisture & Monsoon rains will be affected again ...

 

[Evil Flare]

Thiruvananthapuram, May 31

India Meteorological Department (IMD) has declared the onset of monsoon over the Kerala coast on a day when it also saw a prospective cyclone brewing in the Arabian Sea.

The IMD joined peer numerical weather prediction models to project that the depression (spinning up overnight from a ‘low') over east-central and adjoining west-central and south Arabian Sea would intensify into a cyclonic storm.

LIKELY LANDFALL

Importantly, it sought to posit the system towards making a landfall over the Gujarat coast after a re-curving from a two-day initial northwesterly to north-northwesterly track.

Though seen as tearing apart the onset phase, the cyclone might not impact monsoon flows expected to regroup from the south from the weekend, according to the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF).

In this manner, the Kerala coast may just be bracing for a second and more orderly onset with the flows being directed copybook style into southeast and adjoining south Arabian Sea and contiguous equatorial Indian Ocean and Bay of Bengal.

The US Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) said that the Arabian Sea storm would take advantage of a host of favourable factors to ramp up in strength.

These included a ‘boiling-hot' seawaters at 31 deg Celsius, good window effect at the top that enables the system to breathe and moderate vertical wind shear (change in wind speed and direction with height).

Based on building deep convection and favorable surface conditions, the JTWC assessed as ‘good' the potential for the system to develop as a significant tropical cyclone.

WIDESPREAD RAIN

The IMD said that the Arabian Sea storm may trigger fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over coastal areas of Gujarat from Thursday.

Squally winds with speed reaching 45-55 km/hr would commence along and off Gujarat coast from the previous day.

Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off Gujarat coast from Wednesday and fishermen are advised not venture into the sea during that period.

According to the ECMWF, the cyclonic storm (to be called ‘Phet') might race close towards the Oman coast by Thursday.

But a large westerly trough coming in from the opposite direction would drop down its ‘trunk' into north Arabian Sea and ‘pick' the storm to swing it across Gujarat and adjoining Pakistan by Saturday.

The system would still pack some punch after landfall, and unleash heavy rains over entire Gujarat, west Madhya Pradesh, south-east and adjoining southwest Rajasthan, the ECMWF said.

It is shown as weakening in strength appreciably as it moves further northeast into east Rajasthan and adjoining Haryana and Delhi by Sunday before being guided as a remnant circulation over Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.

MONSOON ADVANCE

On Monday afternoon, the causative depression was centred about 1,050 km southwest of Mumbai and an equal distance away from south-southwest of Naliya.

In one fell swoop, the monsoon current was shown as having covered entire Kerala with the northern limit passing through the northern-most district of Kannur, and Salem and Nagapattinam in neighbouring Tamil Nadu.

Conditions are favourable for its further advance into some parts of central Arabian Sea, coastal and south interior Karnataka and Goa during the next two days.

Further advance of monsoon will depend upon the intensity and direction of movement of the storm, the forecast said.

A satellite imagery showed convective clouds over parts of southeast and east-central Arabian Sea and Andaman Sea.

Forecast up to Saturday suggested fairly widespread rain or thundershowers over Kerala, Lakshadweep, coastal Karnataka, the Northeastern States and Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

 

[SpArK]

Monsoon is already here in Kerala.. its been raining heavily for past 2 weeks.

 

[Evil Flare]

Warning 01 from JTWC for 2100 GMT
Position 15.3N 63.9E
Location 600 miles SSW of Karachi, Pakistan
Movement 335° (NNW) at 4 knots
Maximum sustained windspeeds 35 knots gusting to 45 knots
Threatened landmasses India, Pakistan
Maximum significant wave height is 15 feet
Next update from JTWC at 0300 GMT

03A has formed in the Arabian Sea, and will head north, later northeast, to make landfall in the border area between India and Pakistan in 4 days' time. The system is expected to reach a maximum intensity of 75 knots just before landfall.

 

[Evil Flare]

Meteorologists continue to watch a well organized area of showers and thunderstorms over the northern Indian Ocean for possible tropical cyclone formation.
The showers and thunderstorms have persisted since late last week over the Arabian Sea.
While the region had been fighting wind shear through the weekend, there are signs now of that shear weakening, hence making the region more favorable for development.
Water temperatures are adequately warm in this region; 88 degrees!



Steering currents would tend to carry the system northeastward toward Pakistan and northwestern India as the week progresses.
People in this area, as well as shipping interests should continue to keep track of developments.
Extreme heat has been baking this area in recent weeks. The heat has set world temperature records. Jacobabad, Pakistan reached at least 117 degrees on Monday, May 31, 2010.

 

[Awesome]

So it changed direction over India? Dubai could've used some rain.

 

[Comet]

Oh not good not good.
Allah Kher Kare

 

[Areesh]

So when it will be coming to my city Karachi. Want to give it a big hug.

 

[T-Faz]

If this happens, we will nuke India.

 

[Evil Flare]

سمندری طوفان کراچی سے 11 سو کلومیٹر کے فاصلے پر، ماہی گیروں کو واپسی کی ہدایت
منگل, 01 جون 2010 17:30
کراچی، بحیرہ عرب میں ہوا کا کم دباﺅ طوفان میں تبدیل ہوگیا، ممبئی سے 1050 کلومیٹر جبکہ کراچی سے1100 کلو میٹر کے فاصلے پر ہے۔ محکمہ موسمیات کے مطابق طوفان بدھ کی شام یا رات سندھ کا رخ کرے گااور جمعہ اور ہفتہ کو سندھ و مکران کی ساحلی پٹی سے ٹکرائے گا۔ محکمہ موسمیات نے خبردار کیا ہے کہ ماہی گیر بدھ کی شام تک سمندر سے واپس آجائیں۔محکمہ موسمیات کے مطابق سمندری طوفان میں 70 میل فی گھنٹے کی رفتار سے ہوائیں چل رہی ہیں۔