Once the strongest storm on record in the Bay of Bengal, Cyclone Amphan poses deadly risks in a vulnerable part of the world.
Andrew Freedman and
Joanna Slater
May 19 at 11:00 AM
Category 3 Tropical Cyclone Amphan is plowing northward toward the mouth of the Bay of Bengal on Tuesday and is forecast to make landfall in West Bengal, India, just south of Kolkata, on Wednesday. The storm is prompting officials in the states of Odisha and West Bengal, as well as in neighboring Bangladesh, to try to evacuate 3 million people out of harm’s way, given that this region is among the most vulnerable parts of the world to storm-surge flooding.
Both India and Bangladesh have made great strides in recent years with evacuations and bringing vulnerable residents to storm shelters, but this year those efforts are complicated by the
coronavirus pandemic, which is making many residents fearful of going to confined spaces.
The storm had been a Category 5 monster on Monday, setting a record for the strongest such storm on record in that part of the world, but even nature’s most intense storms are surprisingly delicate. Strong winds carrying relatively dry air surrounding the storm have slipped into the core of Amphan (pronounced “UM-PHUN”), disrupting the inner ring of thunderstorms known as the eyewall, which contains the storm’s strongest winds and heaviest rains.
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[India and Bangladesh prepare for monster cyclone as pandemic rages]
Since Monday night, the eyewall has been open on the eastern side, reflecting the influence of the wind shear and dry air. For the storm to intensify, the eyewall needs to be completely closed.
The forecast calls for the storm to continue to weaken slightly in terms of its wind speeds and to make landfall as a Category 1 or 2 storm. However, because Cyclone Amphan was once a “super cyclonic storm” at the pinnacle of storm intensity, it is pushing water toward shore that is more consistent with a much stronger storm.
This phenomenon of a weakened storm in terms of wind speeds bringing a storm surge commensurate with a more powerful weather system has played out in the United States. Hurricane Katrina, for example, struck the Gulf Coast in 2005 as a Category 3 storm, but its surge was more in line with a Category 5 storm, since it had previously achieved Category 5 status. The storm surge is the storm-driven rise in water above normally dry land.
via Twitter. It also jumped in intensity from a Category 1 storm to a Category 5 monster in just 24 hours, according to Bob Henson of Weather Underground.
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Rapidly intensifying storms constitute one of the impacts that scientists have seen from human-caused global warming, with studies pointing increasingly to the dangers posed by storms that make a sudden leap in intensity categories.
Globally, the odds of the strongest tropical cyclones, such as Category 3, 4 and 5 storms, are increasing due to climate change, according to a study published Monday. However, that study did not find clear trends in the North Indian Ocean Basin.
Evacuation efforts collide with the coronavirus pandemic
two coronavirus cases were reported in the camps last week. International aid groups are preparing emergency supplies of food, tarpaulins and water purification tablets.
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Because of climate change, hurricanes are raining harder and may be growing stronger more quickly]
In the Satkhira district of Bangladesh, which is expected to bear the brunt of the cyclone, officials started using loudspeakers to tell people to evacuate on Monday.
On Tuesday, they began going door-to-door to urge them to move to shelters.
Unlike in prior cyclones, authorities are also using schools and mosques with more than one floor as shelters, said Bhabtosh Kumar Mandal, a local official in the Bangladeshi village of Buri Goalini. The goal is to avoid crowds, he said. People have been asked to arrive at shelters with masks, Mandal added. He was racing to collect even more masks to distribute before the cyclone hit.
India recorded
over 5,000 coronavirus cases in a 24-hour period ending Monday, the most in a single day, and is nearing the 100,000 mark overall. Ganjam, a coastal district in the state of
Odisha, has seen a surge in cases as migrant workers returning home due to an extended lockdown have tested positive. Its neighboring state,
West Bengal, saw the highest rise in its virus death toll in early May.
Joanna Slater and Niha Masih reported from New Delhi.