Maxpane
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very informative interviewPlease watch below:
- Quantity of exports are increasing, rupee devaluation has helped.
- You don't have the money to pay the current account deficit, so imports going down right now is only a good thing
- GDP shrink is to be expected. You were growing due to infrastructure projects based off of loans that further increased Pakistan debt ratio. That also helped skyrocket your import bill as machinery & equipment was imported. Now, that phase is over, the GDP will decrease, projects will decrease, and since the bulk of your FDI was coming from CPEC, Chinese FDI has decreased. This is normal, even in countries like US or China, where economic stimulus packages come in the form of infrastructure spending. GDP gets a boost, but it's only temporary as once construction project is over, jobs come to end.
- Much of these infrastructure projects were useless, for example Lahore Metro. It is politically motivated. That money would be better spent on re-building railways throughout the country to improve connectivity to ports & better facilitate freight movement. You could have used $2-3 billion spent on Lahore Metro to provide free education to millions, sponsor scholarships to universities and build a knowledge-based economy. But no, instead PML-N had to build a freaking Lahore Metro which most can't even use.
- Once the FBR under Shabbar Zaidi succeeds in documenting the "black economy", you will probably find a small boost to economic indicators.
- Inflation happens everywhere and has happened in rule of Zardari & Nawaz Sharif
- Of course, local spending will decrease - temporarily. Someone may not want to purchase nice car or mobile phone to avoid tax net, right now. Eventually, they won't be able to resist, will purchase, and fall under the tax net. Imran Khan is doing a good thing that all countries must do, he is enforcing taxation. Just take a look at what Modi did by discontinuing circulation of certain notes in India - the goal is to move everyone towards cashless, documented society. This in the long, run will be good for Pakistan as it will have more taxation revenue, and it will be good for Pakistan people - for example, no one will be able to steal your plot/house because everything will documented digitally.
- Pakistan is spending on non-development projects like paying back loans because that debt is finally maturing, unlike in the previous governments when it wasn't maturing. PPP & PML-N had the luxury of borrowing money and not having to pay back in their term. PTI government just retired almost $10 billion dollars of debt.