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CPEC snags on solar

ONE of the more exciting of the CPEC power projects to be undertaken on priority in Pakistan was the giant solar park to be built in Bahawalpur. It was part of the Quaid-i-Azam Solar Park and was part of what they call the ‘early harvest’ projects, meaning the first to come online.

The first MoU for the project was signed in August 2013 between the governments of China and Punjab. The provincial government owned the project, and in the first solar power plant that was inaugurated under it, the provincial government was also a joint venture partner with a Chinese contractor.

Later in July 2014, another MoU was signed between the government of Punjab and private Chinese developer that expressed an interest in setting up a 900MW solar plant in the same park. This MoU was signed in the presence of the prime minister in Beijing.

And then the problems began. Their first application for a generation licence was rejected by Nepra.
Things moved fast initially, due to interest in the project at the top. The Project Commitment Agreement was signed a week later, again witnessed by the prime minister and both sides agreed to a tariff of Rs14 per unit outside of taxes, along with the timeline. In August it was placed on the early harvest list and prequalification documents were submitted, and a letter of interest from the Punjab Power Development Board was issued in September.

On Jan 22, 2015, the power regulator and tariff setting body Nepra announced a revised upfront tariff for solar projects at Rs14 per unit for the first 10 years of operation, and this tariff was notified in the official gazette on July 1, 2015, with the stipulation that this offer would be valid for a period of six months, until December 2015. The project sponsors applied for a generation licence under this tariff regime.

Meanwhile, land allotment had already been done in April, for the first batch of 300MW worth of solar power, and in May, the second batch of 600MW also received its allotment. In May the feasibility studies were done for the first batch, and June saw the feasibility for the second batch of 600MW approved.

Grid interconnection studies for both projects were completed by the sponsors in July, and submitted for approval to the National Transmission and Dispatch Company (NTDC), which is a requirement for all private power projects. On July 4, the prime minister met the project sponsors and asked them to move the timelines of the project further up, to April 2016. Right around that time, the company applied for a generation licence from Nepra, so it could begin with lining up the financing and placing the orders for the equipment

And then the problems began. Their first application for a generation licence was rejected by Nepra on July 14, 2015, on the grounds that a duly approved grid interconnection study has not been included. The sponsors pressed NTDC to expedite its approval of the study, and on July 24 received a reply that their study has been ‘vetted’, that concerns of NTDC have been addressed, but the report should be sent to the Central Power Purchasing Agency and the Multan Electric Power Company (Mepco), whose transmission facilities would be used to evacuate the power.

The approval from NTDC was received on Aug 17, and three days later, the company again sent an application for acceptance of the tariff and grant of permission to proceed with project execution.

Then things started to go from bad to worse. To cut a long and detailed story short, when Nepra received the NTDC grid interconnection approval, it objected that this had been issued without a final report of the consultant on renewable energy in the national grid. Therefore, Nepra said in a letter dated Oct 5, 2015, the NTDC certification of the grid interconnection study is “not adequate and useful for the Authority” and asked for the grounds on which these certificates had been given in the absence of an overarching study on the induction of renewable energy. In all previous communications with the project sponsors, Nepra had made no mention of this.

I will surmise that this letter fell like a bombshell on the sponsors. A few more letters were exchanged, where NTDC explained that issuing a certification on grid interconnection for a specific project was a different matter from an overarching study on the role of renewables in the total energy mix of the country. But on Oct 28, Nepra demanded “complete detail of all the solar projects awaiting approval” before proceeding. On Nov 4, NTDC wrote back that the details demanded were being prepared, and that “approval as well as certificates for power evacuation in respect of above mentioned three solar projects already given be considered withdrawn”.

In December, the tariff expired, and Nepra determined a new, lower tariff for solar energy. The project sponsors went into litigation, and won an order from the Lahore High Court that Nepra should hold another round of tariff hearings for this particular project, which was approved to enter under the old tariff regime, and that the grounds on which its application was rejected were baseless. The sponsors are now waiting for a date when Nepra will hold the next hearing, and matter will begin all over again.

This is the tale of one CPEC project. It’s easy to assign blame when reading the simple facts of the story, but it must be remembered that the original upfront solar tariff that Nepra had granted was one of the highest in the world, and was based entirely on cost structures provided by one party — the QAS (Pvt) Ltd, which is a joint venture between the government of Punjab and a Chinese group.

That party is now enjoying the benefits of an extraordinary Rs17 per unit tariff, where the competitive price of solar in the world today is closer to Rs4. Meanwhile, all the other parties that were in the queue for that tariff are today licking their wounds.

http://www.dawn.com/news/1291019/cpec-snags-on-solar

folks have to be careful on power generation projects

Look at Enron in india
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dabhol_Power_Company
 
Early 2012 tariff around 12+ in India.. which touched ground.. Due to semi-Solar policy.. thanks to the states( some ) for tax exemption..

Yah thats when solar was just all around way more expensive....so makes sense. The prices are dropping each year now by good amounts as economies of scale are achieved in the industry with the new generation of photo-voltaics.

I hope Pakistan has a somewhat flexible arrangement to negotiate these tarrifs for CPEC solar over time....locked in prices would be very terrible long term (for them). Great for China's ROI though I would imagine.

folks have to be careful on power generation projects

Look at Enron in india
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dabhol_Power_Company

Look at Enron in general. :P
 
Yah thats when solar was just all around way more expensive....so makes sense. The prices are dropping each year now by good amounts as economies of scale are achieved in the industry with the new generation of photo-voltaics.

I hope Pakistan has a somewhat flexible arrangement to negotiate these tarrifs for CPEC solar over time....locked in prices would be very terrible long term (for them). Great for China's ROI though I would imagine.

There is lil break through in photovoltaic tech( price) .. GERMI working to bring down project cost .. but the issue many developers and distributors bringing tier 2 or tier 3 panels from china( am not saying they don't have tier1 but the importers are ).. these imports are killing local solar manufacturers( small scale).. Cong introduced REC for 2012-2017 period to encourage Solar power plants, but REC trading become difficult to smaller plants.. and no plans to reschedule REC mechanism.. and more over, I have inspected an solar plant in Andhra, owner of the plant is a villager.. approached some agency in Chennai as he is interested.. That EPC company constructed dual axis tracker even though land is suitable for fixed installation.. power gen with or without tracker almost equal wrt to cost .. without tracker his project cost might reduced to 1 to 1.2cr/mw .. and he have to pay interest for that additional burden..


@salarsikander
 
Yah thats when solar was just all around way more expensive....so makes sense. The prices are dropping each year now by good amounts as economies of scale are achieved in the industry with the new generation of photo-voltaics.

I hope Pakistan has a somewhat flexible arrangement to negotiate these tarrifs for CPEC solar over time....locked in prices would be very terrible long term (for them). Great for China's ROI though I would imagine.



Look at Enron in general. :P

In general Enron was bad. their deal with India was outrageous for Indian rate payers
 
There is lil break through in photovoltaic tech( price) .. GERMI working to bring down project cost .. but the issue many developers and distributors bringing tier 2 or tier 3 panels from china( am not saying they don't have tier1 but the importers are ).. these imports are killing local solar manufacturers( small scale).. Cong introduced REC for 2012-2017 period to encourage Solar power plants, but REC trading become difficult to smaller plants.. and no plans to reschedule REC mechanism.. and more over, I have inspected an solar plant in Andhra, owner of the plant is a villager.. approached some agency in Chennai as he is interested.. That EPC company constructed dual axis tracker even though land is suitable for fixed installation.. power gen with or without tracker almost equal wrt to cost .. without tracker his project cost might reduced to 1 to 1.2cr/mw .. and he have to pay interest for that additional burden..


@salarsikander

Simply creating an insulated solar industry production in India is not going to cut it. It will be unsustainable. There needs to be a ground up electronics manufacturing at OEM level in India. Right now only 100 billion will be met by local suppliers of the 400 billion dollar demand in electronics/electrical industry that will be in India in around 2020 - 2025. That is a dreadful projection, forget about all the electronics export dreams.

Till that happens it is much more pragmatic to take advantage of cheap Chinese solar fab production and instead create jobs around construction, engineering etc...regarding installation and operation. When the Electronics policy being drafted by niti aayog is implemented (right now they are looking to combine it with the CSEZ draft policy), then we can look at the relevant levels of protection for electronics industry in general to provide the nurturing in 5, 10 year blocks etc.

Piecemeal protections here and there done in haphazard way will only harm India. It needs to be a well planned and structured effort. Chinese, US and other OEM solar producers themselves can then be given incentives to invest in local OEM production of solar fab and electronics in general. That is how you can then sustain capital good shifts from overcapacities in say China over time in the crucial decade (2020 - 2030).
 
Simply creating an insulated solar industry production in India is not going to cut it. It will be unsustainable. There needs to be a ground up electronics manufacturing at OEM level in India. Right now only 100 billion will be met by local suppliers of the 400 billion dollar demand in electronics/electrical industry that wilin India in around 2020 - 2025. That is a dreadful projection, forget about all the electronics export dreams.

Till that happens it is much more pragmatic to take advantage of cheap Chinese solar fab production and instead create jobs around construction, engineering etc...regarding installation and operation. When the Electronics policy being drafted by niti aayog is implemented (right now they are looking to combine it with the CSEZ draft policy), then we can look at the relevant levels of protection for electronics industry in general to provide the nurturing in 5, 10 year blocks etc.

Piecemeal protections here and there done in haphazard way will only harm India. It needs to be a well planned and structured effort. Chinese, US and other OEM solar producers themselves can then be given incentives to invest in local OEM production of solar fab and electronics in general. That is how you can then sustain capital good shifts from overcapacities in say China over time in the crucial decade (2020 - 2030).


That is not the case here, chinese panels available at cheap price( comparing to Indian).. which falls into 2nd and 3rd tier.. they are giving 25year life time, but you know how long these so called brands run along .. the problem lies into the EPC companies, and their dramabazi.. plant cost not just subjected to panels which accounts majority of the project cost but the subsystems( rest of equipment ).. they are trying to manipulate like saying, project with trackers power generation will increase by 15%-25% ... barring the location and type of soil... they are doing big favour to chinese companies..


Any how coming to the topic, they will realise side effects of white elephant projects later... :enjoy::enjoy:..​
 
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