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CPEC snags on solar

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ONE of the more exciting of the CPEC power projects to be undertaken on priority in Pakistan was the giant solar park to be built in Bahawalpur. It was part of the Quaid-i-Azam Solar Park and was part of what they call the ‘early harvest’ projects, meaning the first to come online.

The first MoU for the project was signed in August 2013 between the governments of China and Punjab. The provincial government owned the project, and in the first solar power plant that was inaugurated under it, the provincial government was also a joint venture partner with a Chinese contractor.

Later in July 2014, another MoU was signed between the government of Punjab and private Chinese developer that expressed an interest in setting up a 900MW solar plant in the same park. This MoU was signed in the presence of the prime minister in Beijing.

And then the problems began. Their first application for a generation licence was rejected by Nepra.
Things moved fast initially, due to interest in the project at the top. The Project Commitment Agreement was signed a week later, again witnessed by the prime minister and both sides agreed to a tariff of Rs14 per unit outside of taxes, along with the timeline. In August it was placed on the early harvest list and prequalification documents were submitted, and a letter of interest from the Punjab Power Development Board was issued in September.

On Jan 22, 2015, the power regulator and tariff setting body Nepra announced a revised upfront tariff for solar projects at Rs14 per unit for the first 10 years of operation, and this tariff was notified in the official gazette on July 1, 2015, with the stipulation that this offer would be valid for a period of six months, until December 2015. The project sponsors applied for a generation licence under this tariff regime.

Meanwhile, land allotment had already been done in April, for the first batch of 300MW worth of solar power, and in May, the second batch of 600MW also received its allotment. In May the feasibility studies were done for the first batch, and June saw the feasibility for the second batch of 600MW approved.

Grid interconnection studies for both projects were completed by the sponsors in July, and submitted for approval to the National Transmission and Dispatch Company (NTDC), which is a requirement for all private power projects. On July 4, the prime minister met the project sponsors and asked them to move the timelines of the project further up, to April 2016. Right around that time, the company applied for a generation licence from Nepra, so it could begin with lining up the financing and placing the orders for the equipment

And then the problems began. Their first application for a generation licence was rejected by Nepra on July 14, 2015, on the grounds that a duly approved grid interconnection study has not been included. The sponsors pressed NTDC to expedite its approval of the study, and on July 24 received a reply that their study has been ‘vetted’, that concerns of NTDC have been addressed, but the report should be sent to the Central Power Purchasing Agency and the Multan Electric Power Company (Mepco), whose transmission facilities would be used to evacuate the power.

The approval from NTDC was received on Aug 17, and three days later, the company again sent an application for acceptance of the tariff and grant of permission to proceed with project execution.

Then things started to go from bad to worse. To cut a long and detailed story short, when Nepra received the NTDC grid interconnection approval, it objected that this had been issued without a final report of the consultant on renewable energy in the national grid. Therefore, Nepra said in a letter dated Oct 5, 2015, the NTDC certification of the grid interconnection study is “not adequate and useful for the Authority” and asked for the grounds on which these certificates had been given in the absence of an overarching study on the induction of renewable energy. In all previous communications with the project sponsors, Nepra had made no mention of this.

I will surmise that this letter fell like a bombshell on the sponsors. A few more letters were exchanged, where NTDC explained that issuing a certification on grid interconnection for a specific project was a different matter from an overarching study on the role of renewables in the total energy mix of the country. But on Oct 28, Nepra demanded “complete detail of all the solar projects awaiting approval” before proceeding. On Nov 4, NTDC wrote back that the details demanded were being prepared, and that “approval as well as certificates for power evacuation in respect of above mentioned three solar projects already given be considered withdrawn”.

In December, the tariff expired, and Nepra determined a new, lower tariff for solar energy. The project sponsors went into litigation, and won an order from the Lahore High Court that Nepra should hold another round of tariff hearings for this particular project, which was approved to enter under the old tariff regime, and that the grounds on which its application was rejected were baseless. The sponsors are now waiting for a date when Nepra will hold the next hearing, and matter will begin all over again.

This is the tale of one CPEC project. It’s easy to assign blame when reading the simple facts of the story, but it must be remembered that the original upfront solar tariff that Nepra had granted was one of the highest in the world, and was based entirely on cost structures provided by one party — the QAS (Pvt) Ltd, which is a joint venture between the government of Punjab and a Chinese group.

That party is now enjoying the benefits of an extraordinary Rs17 per unit tariff, where the competitive price of solar in the world today is closer to Rs4. Meanwhile, all the other parties that were in the queue for that tariff are today licking their wounds.

http://www.dawn.com/news/1291019/cpec-snags-on-solar
 
his is the tale of one CPEC project. It’s easy to assign blame when reading the simple facts of the story, but it must be remembered that the original upfront solar tariff that Nepra had granted was one of the highest in the world, and was based entirely on cost structures provided by one party — the QAS (Pvt) Ltd, which is a joint venture between the government of Punjab and a Chinese group.

That party is now enjoying the benefits of an extraordinary Rs17 per unit tariff, where the competitive price of solar in the world today is closer to Rs4. Meanwhile, all the other parties that were in the queue for that tariff are today licking their wounds.
See @Syed.Ali.Haider This is what I was stating. Our own people dont stand for themselves and they would gladly let anyone come and loot them out. Conveniently putting blame outsiders, Whereas outsider are merely looking for their own interests and best ROI
 
See @Syed.Ali.Haider This is what I was stating. Our own people dont stand for themselves and they would gladly let anyone come and loot them out. Conveniently putting blame outsiders, Whereas outsider are merely looking for their own interests and best ROI

That is not the problem. The problem is when people who speak out the truth are attacked for speaking out the inconvenient truth! :D

I have said many times, the problem with the power sector is not on the generation side, it is on the distribution and billing sides. The circular debt is mounting again by the tens of billions per month.
 
That is not the problem. The problem is when people who speak out the truth are attacked for speaking out the inconvenient truth! :D
Yes , but once can also point out to something encouraging rather than ranting all day long like GEO news. You know jus saying,
 
Yes , but once can also point out to something encouraging rather than ranting all day long like GEO news. You know jus saying,

The facts that the problem with the power sector is not on the generation side, that it is on the distribution and billing sides, and that the circular debt is mounting again by the tens of billions per month are not rants, just the situation turthfully described..
 
The facts that the problem with the power sector is not on the generation side, that it is on the distribution and billing sides, and that the circular debt is mounting again by the tens of billions per month are not rants, just the situation turthfully described..
Oh no, That is very true Sire. I am not disagreeing with you there. I just meant how popularly Vcheng is known for his hardcore stance on highlighting the negativity as in genera

Yes, but you say of above is very true
 
Oh no, That is very true Sire. I am not disagreeing with you there. I just meant how popularly Vcheng is known for his hardcore stance on highlighting the negativity as in genera

Yes, but you say of above is very true

There is no negativity or positivity in what I say, as in this thread. That is what others perceive, which is not my problem. My problem is only to state the truth. Whether it is bitter or sweet to the reader depends only on the facts. For example, the recent addition of CHASNUPP-3 is a great and positive step forward for nuclear energy in Pakistan.
 
There is no negativity or positivity in what I say, as in this thread. That is what others perceive, which is not my problem. My problem is only to state the truth. Whether it is bitter or sweet to the reader depends only on the facts. For example, the recent addition of CHASNUPP-3 is a great and positive step forward for nuclear energy in Pakistan.
Oh lets certainly not discourage of you that Behaviour ( praising the good side of Pakistan). But could you tell me of any adequate safety measure have been taken after Dr. Hoodboys request ?
 
Oh lets certainly not discourage of you that Behaviour ( praising the good side of Pakistan). But could you tell me of any adequate safety measure have been taken after Dr. Hoodboys request ?

That discussion belongs in another thread, not here.
 
Rs 17 is pretty ridiculous price.

Solar power in India generally the cost at grid is around Rs 4 - 5. That is INR of course....so some conversion factor present.

When you have sole supplier providing you the loans and everything, they have all the bargaining on their side, you have little to none.

When you are free to source (equipment, loans, personell, expertise whatever) and the project is run and owned privately, you can achieve some very good results in Subcontinent:


Having such a high tariff (beyond just making the electricity expensive) also dissuades others from investing and competing in the sector given they cannot expect a similar tariff for themselves. So whats the point?
 
Snags are expected in projects and hopefully will be sorted out soon...

Its otherwise a great project...

When oil was discovered in saudi arabia ...americans were allowed to drill, build the infrstructure and run the show and keep 90% of profit...necessary evil as saudis had no idea how to drill for oil and no one wanted to invest in an ultra conservative country...oil was not as profitable as there were only few cars in world....
Today saudis own 100% of oil and take 100% profit....

Thing is you have to give some incentive to investors to invest in a terrorist riddled country where no one wants to visit less invest...
Tarrifs can be brought down later... u cannot compare these tarrifs with established investor heavons as china...

Is there corruption...sure...
But again getting project as brilliant as 1 gw from solar and getting country back on track is most important at this stage...it wont matter if these issues are dealt with time
 
That party is now enjoying the benefits of an extraordinary Rs17 per unit tariff, where the competitive price of solar in the world today is closer to Rs4. Meanwhile, all the other parties that were in the queue for that tariff are today licking their wounds.

http://www.dawn.com/news/1291019/cpec-snags-on-solar

I dont think that solar power tariff in india is anything neaby to PKR 4, something converted to 2 INR. Infact solar power tariff all over the world is costly. Currently the highest rate is paid by TN is around 14 PKR and lowest is paid by Madhya Pradesh at 10 PKR. But both of the rates are fixed for 25 years. Not sure of this deal though.

@Nilgiri Solar prices are India are costly too. Only recently did MP got an bid for INR 5 per unit. The plant is yet to be built. TN buys electricity at 7INR per unit. The average rate pan India is somewhat 6-7 rupees. Its not cheap though.
 
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I dont the solar power tariff in india is anything neaby to PKR 4, something converted to 2 INR. Infact solar power tariff all over the world is costly. Infact currently the highest rate is paid by TN is around 14 PKR and lowest is paid by Madhya Pradesh at 10 PKR. But both of the rates are fixed for 25 years. Not sure of this deal though.

@Nilgiri Solar prices are India are costly too. Only recently did MP got an bid for INR 5 per unit. The plant is yet to be built. TN buys electricity at 7INR per unit. The average rate pan India is somewhat 6-7 rupees. Its not cheap though.

I actually checked what they are more recently:

http://articles.economictimes.india...926604_1_adani-power-power-regulator-tangedco

However, the fact remains that the prices for solar energy continue to fall and has reached as low as Rs.4.34 per unit as on date.(as per available information).

We will have to wait and see where the final prices stabilise in the decade from 2020 - 2030 (Esp as solar continues to improve its cost/output ratio). But for now at least there is some level of basic competition (bidding) from multiple suppliers/consortiums, no creation of insulated special interests by tariffs as high as PKR 17 which is crazy. Yes its still not "cheap" (esp on direct, market measure), but its much more feasible now when total (direct and indirect, market and non-market) costs are calculated over lifetime.

Someone earlier was saying the PKR 17 tarriff can be changed (reduced) over time, but he will need to post the wording of the loan and pricing agreements so we can have a look at that.
 
Rs 17 is pretty ridiculous price.

Solar power in India generally the cost at grid is around Rs 4 - 5. That is INR of course....so some conversion factor present.

When you have sole supplier providing you the loans and everything, they have all the bargaining on their side, you have little to none.

When you are free to source (equipment, loans, personell, expertise whatever) and the project is run and owned privately, you can achieve some very good results in Subcontinent:


Having such a high tariff (beyond just making the electricity expensive) also dissuades others from investing and competing in the sector given they cannot expect a similar tariff for themselves. So whats the point?


Early 2012 tariff around 12+ in India.. which touched ground.. Due to semi-Solar policy.. thanks to the states( some ) for tax exemption..
 
I actually checked what they are more recently:

http://articles.economictimes.india...926604_1_adani-power-power-regulator-tangedco

However, the fact remains that the prices for solar energy continue to fall and has reached as low as Rs.4.34 per unit as on date.(as per available information).

We will have to wait and see where the final prices stabilise in the decade from 2020 - 2030 (Esp as solar continues to improve its cost/output ratio). But for now at least there is some level of basic competition (bidding) from multiple suppliers/consortiums, no creation of insulated special interests by tariffs as high as PKR 17 which is crazy. Yes its still not "cheap" (esp on direct, market measure), but its much more feasible now when total (direct and indirect, market and non-market) costs are calculated over lifetime.


Meanwhile, the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission notified in an order in March this year that the capital cost of solar power had fallen to Rs. 5.86 crore per MW. In short, the price of solar power had dropped by Rs. 1.14 per unit within this short period.
http://www.thehindu.com/news/nation...kyhigh-rates-in-tamil-nadu/article7464751.ece

Yeah I did a double check. Its reducing a lot. Its like 5.86 per unit now as pointed out by Central authority and TN pays more 1.14 INR per unit. Private enterprises offer unit per costs now less than 5 INR, as you have pointed out. Maybe the solar prices will get low as production rises in Pakistan. That's a concern for their people.
 

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