CPEC - hurdles, challenges, trips.

[Indus Pakistan]

Okay Gwadar Port is about to begin operations and many of the infrastructure projects of the "early harvest" are soon going to reach fruition. However as everybody knows this is just the laying down of the basic frame of the much wider and ambitious goal of CPEC over the next 16 years. I have been a avid follower of this project for two reasons.

That it would open the floodgates to foreign [read Chinese] industrial and economic forces that would act like steriod on the insipid Pakistani economy most of which is in fact composed of a rentier class closely connected to the political feudal elite that esentially does not create wealth but just collects "rent" from the poor. It would I hoped connect and open to the dynamic Chinese economy in doing so plant the seeds of a new class of entrepreneur that won on meirit and was competitive by world class standards. In short Pakistani economy would morph into a dynamic side ally of the world class Chinese economy. And that both would then be placed in lockstep to take on the world thus reflectinh and manifesting the "higher then mountain and deeper then ocean" political alliance.

That as the Chinese economic influence would gain on Pakistan it would cast a long political shadow on Pakistan. To a degree this is already happening. The Chinese embassy has become increasingly important powerbroker even inside Pakistan as it uses it's increasing influence to stay the fractured Pakistani polity in the direction of keeping CPEC on target. This I believe is already happening as the Chinese ambassdor goes around Pakistan knocking/dealing with the differant levers of power.

That as we move forward the political and economic shadow cast by China in Pakistan would begin to change or influence the social and thinking of Pakistani's. To put it bluntly it might began to change the failed desi mind to doing things the way Chinese do it. This might for a start began to push the out of control religious profiteers to the margins of Pakistani society. That Chinese influence might make Pakistani's more tolerant and open to the modern world instead of being stuck with the failed desi way of doing things and or repeating those failed way again and again. Prescribing the same failed medicine that made us colonial slaves in the first place.

So thoughts about what challanges lie ahead for CPEC. This is not a thread for singing songs but a critical analysis. Devil's advocates wanted please. @Cybernetics @KediKesenFare @Joe Shearer @LeGenD

 

[Pakistansdefender]

The only problem with cpec is Pakistanis themselves.
With almost a medivial society with colonial mindset. Fighting among each other .
The problem is that people have accepted the way they are and didn't want to change a little bit. People have stopped looking for something better. People considers and fancy themselves better then people in developed nations on the mere basis that we are Muslims and Pakistanis....
Plus we are corrupt to the core....
In every project a certain group is getting benefitted. All the contracts were given to their friends and family.
We need an honest leadership.
Mind you it cannot bring revolution in a day. But an honest government that would address the life long issue Pakistan is facing since its creation such as fata merger, giving gilgit baltistan representation, Madrassas reform , all Madrassas and mosque are under government control and would only teach government approved text etc etc.
A leadership that has vision to utilize this opportunity of cpec and unite the nation. To develop least develop areas such as baluchistan, fata etc....
A leader that can reform our society morally , for our society has no morals left.
Security is the key and sealing the border and having an effect border guard, Along with proper policing mechanism. I would rather have one police force called Pakistan police rather then different police such as Sindh, kpk etc. And all intelligence agencies must be housed together and made to work together.
And start to think of you as a respectable nation that can grow very quickly and emerge as a leader in the world. Don't not put everything one China. We need Chinese investment all right, but our partnership. Should be equal one.
Stop behaving like, we would ask China or this and that.

 

[Cybernetics]

I think the healthy attitude towards CPEC is cautious optimism and humbleness. There will plenty of challenges ahead for the project and future cooperation. If you aren't facing problems, you aren't growing.

The ensuing years of 1979 market opening for China was societal change but distributed unevenly. This change came in the form of fresh attitudes towards life and the economy, in many ways disrupting the stagnant, complacent, and self comforting way of life (as tough as it may be). The people of China hadn't changed all that much but certain attitudes have and it wouldn't have been possible or at the speed it did without the migration of workers into new economic centres. Workers went out of their hometowns to find work for various reasons but most went to seek something different whether its money or to find a new life. The population that migrated understood the social contract of their new home, they were to work to make money and had less social entitlement in this new environment (self imposed and imposed by others) but can feel freed from their old social environment. This combined with a young age, renders migrants more receptive to change.

If a soft approach towards social development is what you seek then I think Gwadar will provide that in the next 20 years.

Cultural seed
To bring about change, there needs to be the seed that embodies the change (at least the direction) you wish to see. You mentioned you wish to see Pakistanis embrace a pragmatic perspective through interacting with the Chinese. I think it is something that will likely happen. Not saying Chinese are pragmatic in all facets of life but when it comes to industry and economy Chinese are quite pragmatic. This will be the main framework in which Pakistani migrant workers and other talents will interact with the Chinese. Its important to not put all your hopes on the Chinese, they are a catalyst but most of the development will rest on Pakistanis themselves.

Fertile soil
For the seed to flourish it needs a nurturing environment. The soil for change in Gwadar will be migrant population and the industries that settle and interact with the region. Some parts of Pakistan seem to be arid soil, but has the potential to be rendered fertile under certain circumstances. As of now in these parts of Pakistan, no amount of seeds will help. There is diminishing returns investing in these regions, so just leave them be. Gwadar is a clean sheet. The process in which the rest of Pakistan becomes fertile is two fold:
1. Gwadar beomes an example where other cities and industries come to seek knowledge to replicate its success.
2. The people of Gwadar (migrants) flow outwards to start business of their own or find work elsewhere.

On the surface there won't be much to look at. In fact I think Gwadar for the first 1-2 decades will look like a lifeless and culture-less industrial town, incomparable to the bustling streets of Karachi or the grandeur of Islamabad. For the first few decades, Gwadar is not meant to be a cultural hub, but an example of pragmatic approach towards industry and economy. It is a catalyst to drive competition in Pakistan and to fan an industrialist spirit.

The industrialist spirit is something that is universal and anyone can develop it, it is a state of mind. Without it, there is no hope of development beyond a middle income level. I urge people to not just think in terms of TOT and toll fees, they are the brainchild of a rent-seeking mindset, that in my view is the antitheses of the industrialist spirit. Think in terms of knowledge/resources and how to access that knowledge/resources in direct and indirect ways. Proximity is key.

Majority of foreign companies that export from Chinese soil doesn't transfer any technologies, some were tax exempt for a period, some were provided with free land, and other incentives that are surprising just to get those firms inside China. Select companies that operate in the Chinese domestic market requires TOT, most that operate in the Chinese market are not subject to those requirements. Of course policies change but the point is not just making money from rent seeking. Just by the proximity Chinese were to high tech supply chains and new management practices, they were able to upgrade their existing industries and create new ones.

Foreign firms serve the purpose of employment and human resource development. Pakistani employees of Chinese companies can facilitate the connection between their employer and Pakistani firms to create an integrated supply chain. Accessing the Chinese supply chain opens up greater markets (this is what China has done with the largest companies in developed nations). The more amount of Chinese firms attracted to Pakistan the greater access they can have to the Chinese clientele (domestic and export) but this requires an industrialist spirit. This is conducive to development even if on the surface it looks like Pakistan is not getting any rent or direct tax revenue.

Overall the level of success of CPEC is contingent on whether the industrialist spirit in Pakistan catches on. Without it there will still be plenty of developments but nowhere near the dreams of some hopefuls.

 

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

Countries like Turkey and Pak function best under a "now or never" type condition!! Even after losing almost in all fronts the Turkish folks started the "War of Independence"!!! After losing the Eastern wing Pak commenced "eat grass to have the Bomb" program!!!!! If somehow Pak's arch enemies can generate such a situation CPEC becomes a done deal!!! So, Devil's worst advocate is Devil itself when his cover of "the greatest deception of Devil is to delude the mankind into believing that he doesn't exist" gets compromised!!!!!!!

 

[khansaheeb]

CPEC is just the archeries for the body, it needs vital organs to make the body work well and one key organ is Skills and education.

We need something like this:-
https://www.oecd.org/g20/summits/toronto/G20-Skills-Strategy.pdf

Labour Ministers Meeting in Washington DC in April 2010, who recommended prioritizing education, lifelong learning, job training and skills development strategies linked to growth strategies. The wide consultations we have carried out, the body of knowledge we have examined, point to a number of critical elements. The first is broad availability of quality education as a foundation for future training. Education for all, and children in school and not at work, is an essential foundation of future training. A second is building solid bridges between the world of work and training providers in order to match skills provision to the needs of enterprises. This is often done best at the sectoral level where the direct participation of employers and workers together with government and training providers can ensure the relevance of training. A third is continuous workplace training and lifelong learning enabling workers and enterprises to adjust to an increasingly rapid pace of change. Fourth is anticipating and building competencies for future needs. Sustained dialogue between employers and trainers, coordination across government institutions, labour market information, employment services and performance reviews are steps to an early identification of skill needs. Fifth is ensuring broad access to training opportunities, for women and men, and particularly for those groups facing greater difficulties, in particular youth, lower skilled workers, workers with disabilities, rural communities. Decent work, a universal aspiration, is the best path to self-advancement of women and men. It underpins the stability of communities and families. It is an integral component of strategies for sustainable growth and development. And skills are pivotal to decent work strategies. The training strategy for strong, sustainable and balanced growth addresses strategic issues as well as practical arrangements. It provides a platform for further exchange of ideas and experiences among a wide range of institutions, enterprises, experts from all countries. It will strengthen the cooperation among international agencies, and inform the ILO’s work. We are pleased to make this G20 training strategy widely available. I am convinced you will find it useful in guiding your own assessments of the paths leading to more effective and broadly accessible training provision of relevant skills, and ultimately decent work in sustainable enterprises. Juan