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Coup on Yingluck's government in Thailand

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Thailand’s political crisis: Deadlock | The Economist

BY MID-AFTERNOON on December 9th the leader of Thailand’s would-be revolution, Suthep Thaugsuban, was celebrating the capture of Bangkok’s government district from atop a makeshift stage. Before him the prime minister’s office stood closed and empty, surrounded by over 100,000 of his devoted followers. Just a handful of soldiers were left to guard the perimeter gates. After a month of mounting protests, Mr Suthep had asked for a big turnout for one last push to oust the government—and he got it.

Mr Suthep refers to the government as the “Thaksin regime”. The prime minister is Yingluck Shinawatra, but the power behind her is Thaksin Shinawatra, her elder brother, who was ousted as prime minister in 2006 in an army coup. Since Ms Yingluck came to office in a landslide in 2011, he has called the shots from self-imposed exile in Dubai. Yet now Ms Yingluck’s grip looks distinctly shaky. Even before the protesters seized the entire government district, she announced that she would dissolve parliament and call an election, for February 2nd; her hope was to persuade the anti-government protesters to go home. “Let the people decide the direction of the country and who the governing majority will be,” she said in a televised address on December 8th. It was not sufficient to appease the fiery Mr Suthep.

With the crowds at his back, Mr Suthep (pictured, above, at bottom-centre) insists that Ms Yingluck should not even stay on as caretaker prime minister until the election. He says that she and her government must resign to make way for his own “people’s council” of “decent men” who would draw up measures to wipe all influence of the Shinawatra clan from Thai politics. Some of Mr Suthep’s street-fighting men even want Ms Yingluck to leave the country altogether, joining her brother in exile. (He faces two years in prison for corruption and abuse of power should he return.) Mr Suthep has invited all in the civil service to work with him to set up, in effect, an alternative government. All his “orders” (as he calls them) and demands amount to little less than an attempted coup.

Ms Yingluck insists that she will remain in office until the election. But Mr Suthep’s uncompromising ferocity has plainly rattled her. She is a relative novice in the turbulent world of Thai politics, never having held public office before being picked by her brother to lead his Pheu Thai party to victory in the 2011 elections. In a speech on December 10th she seemed almost tearful as she defended both herself and her family, saying plaintively that she had “backed down to the point where I don’t know how to back down any further.”

Yet if Ms Yingluck is going wobbly, her core “red shirt” supporters, those thousands of activists loyal to Mr Thaksin, certainly are not. They have vowed to defend the democratically elected government. There are plans, should Ms Yingluck fall, to move the government to the red-shirt heartlands in the north and north-east as a counterweight to Mr Suthep’s insurrection in the capital and the south. That would further entrench the bitter divisions between the two parts of the country, divisions that some argue have now made Thailand virtually ungovernable.

But if Ms Yingluck can make it through to next year, she knows that she has a good chance of winning a fresh mandate at the polls. Indeed, a chief reason why Mr Suthep and his allies do not accept an election as the way out of the impasse is that they would probably lose. After all, the Pheu Thai party and its earlier incarnations, all led by Mr Thaksin or his retainers, have won the last five general elections, the latest by a big margin. For however vast the anti-government crowds are in Bangkok and certain southern Thai cities, out in the populous rural north and north-east it is a different story. There Mr Thaksin and his party long ago captured the votes of millions of relatively poor rice farmers, and they have been stacking up the parliamentary majorities ever since.

By contrast, the opposition Democrat Party to which Mr Suthep belongs has a dismal record at the polls. His people try to argue that somehow all the victories of the Thaksin parties have been bought, with “bribes” of lavish public spending on rice farmers, among others. Yet precious little evidence suggests the elections were systematically rigged.

Much now hangs on how the Democrats respond to Ms Yingluck’s call for an election. Their MPs resigned en masse on December 8th to join the protests (eight of their number, including Mr Suthep, had already done so a month earlier, in order to lead the demonstrations). The Democrats claim that parliament has abused its power and is now illegitimate, for instance because it attempted to introduce a fully elected senate, as well as an amnesty bill designed chiefly to allow Mr Thaksin back. Now they have to decide whether to throw in their lot with the protesters completely, or to contest the election.

One senior Democrat (and former foreign minister), Kasit Piromya, argues that the party “cannot avoid the election, as a democratic party”. Others may not agree; after all, the party has boycotted an election before, in 2006. If the Democrats do not take part, it would doubtless undermine the credibility of their opponents’ victory. But it would deal yet another blow to democracy in Thailand, already in a precarious state.
 
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How safe is Thailand ?

Anyone ..?

Intending to spend New Year there .
 
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Your false title got me. Please, it is protest, not coup.

It is safe in Thailand for tourists but you may face the inconvinience in public transportation if things get worst. Thai Army has stated they will be neutral, and the police are not going going to disperse the protestors by force.

There will be a new round of election where the Thai army will not side with any political party. In the past it was the army that staged the coups.
 
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It would be easy to remove her from power with fundamental anti corruption policies and enforcement of those policies, throwing her and here clique into jail and pulling the sole source of her political power from under her foot. But the opposition doesnt really want that either. They are just as corrupt.
 
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Actually there is an even bigger dimension to this issue. Yingluck group is pro-China supported by people and Abhisit is pro-USA supported by the traditional palace elites. This is a proxy war of China and USA and yet another velvet revolution.

None or few of the western media ever condemn Thai army's earlier against Thaksin and inaction against the mob currently. When the law enforcer does not try stop protester from marching the PM office and sabotaging it, they are equivalent of pro-mob.

The fall of Thailand to the China camp will be a deadly blow to USA projection in Indochina. So far, Cambodia is China ally. Vietnam's pro China camp is slightly in the upper hand. Myanmar is a fence sitter. If Thailand goes to China, Indochina will be firmly pro China gradually.

USA think thanks came out with this idea call China Monroe Doctrine decades ago, and have no illusion that China will project its power in SE Asia and re-oriented SE Asia back to herself once she has the ability to do so.

The last straw on the back of camel that trigger the taking down of Yingluck appears to be 2 event.

  1. The rejection of Amnesty be oppostion
  2. The barter of rice with China for high speed rail
Yingluck proposed an political amnesty which will bring back Thaksin but will also spare the Democrats from 2010 style massacre that resulted to more than 100 death. The opposition has more to gain than Thaksin. Thaksin was indicted for corruption, a way of life in Thai politics where everyone are in it, and no evidence that Thaksin has gone overboard.

Abhisit was guilty for brutal crackdown of peaceful protest. By rejecting the amnesty, summons are issued to the Dems' leaders and right now, any inaction spell the end of their political life.

The rice bartering for HSR raised alarm not just in Thailand, but USA. Yingluck has treated the peasant well by raising the rice purchase price but this is also draining to the government treasury, and subjected to perpetual mockery by western press. The "free market capitalist" would like to see her fail. But her deal with China's premier Li Keqiang change the whole game. Not only she can now continue her program, meanwhile Thailand will get a HSR which integrate her firmly with China.

Up to this point, a take down against her government is inevitable.

I project Thaksin group will win in the long run for reason.

  1. USA is waning and China is emerging. China has more resource and view Thailand as an important partner that she is very willing to dedicate resource into Thailand.
  2. The USA supported palace and Democrates are selfish and corrupt. They are a reactionary force and they support a quasi feudal system, under the name of free market capitalism. They have lost support of the people.
  3. Thaksin with all his flaws wanted to do something for the people, and move the country forward. Things get done under Thaksin. His free heathcare program and his sister's high rice price program are the lifeline for a lot of Thais. They have the support of the Thais.
 
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The rice bartering for HSR raised alarm not just in Thailand, but USA. Yingluck has treated the peasant well by raising the rice purchase price but this is also draining to the government treasury, and subjected to perpetual mockery by western press. The "free market capitalist" would like to see her fail. But her deal with China's premier Li Keqiang change the whole game. Not only she can now continue her program, meanwhile Thailand will get a HSR which integrate her firmly with China.
How can it change the whole game? Will China give the Thai rice the same valued with Yingluck buy price from the peasant (China giving subsidy Thailand) or according the international market (Thai sell at loss)?

Beside from what i read there's still plenty more in warehouse that Thai can't sell without making loss and the longer it put off the sale, the bigger the quality lose.
 
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How can it change the whole game? Will China give the Thai rice the same valued with Yingluck buy price from the peasant (China giving subsidy Thailand) or according the international market (Thai sell at loss)?

Beside from what i read there's still plenty more in warehouse that Thai can't sell without making loss and the longer it put off the sale, the bigger the quality lose.

China Premier Li Keqing has allegedly told Yingluck that China will buy up whatever rice Thailand has in her warehouse. Officially, Li and Yingluck annouced that China will buy up 1 million tons a year, and will China will adjust rice import if necessary.

I have no idea about the terms but logically it should be much either higher than market price, or with some other term and goodies. Else Thailand can dump it into the market.

China is doing a very good thing to Thailand and Thai people will eventually realize it and hate the Abhisit gangs for selling people out.
 
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China Premier Li Keqing has allegedly told Yingluck that China will buy up whatever rice Thailand has in her warehouse. Officially, Li and Yingluck annouced that China will buy up 1 million tons a year, and will China will adjust rice import if necessary.

I have no idea about the terms but logically it should be much either higher than market price, or with some other term and goodies. Else Thailand can dump it into the market.

China is doing a very good thing to Thailand and Thai people will eventually realize it and hate the Abhisit gangs for selling people out.

But the market won't buy Thailand rice at their 'special price'. Also Thailand won't sell their rice at huge loss openly. That's why they have huge pile of rice in warehouse (10-17million tones).

Imo more possible scenario is Thailand sell at loss to China, but because it's G to G they don't need to open their price to public (less embarassing). I'm seriously doubt China want to subsidy Thailand farmer several billion dollar every year just to save Yingluck skin. Beside it's huge victory for Yingluck if She can sell to China at premium price, i bet she already announced it to boost support for her if it really happen.
 
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But the market won't buy Thailand rice at their 'special price'. Also Thailand won't sell their rice at huge loss openly. That's why they have huge pile of rice in warehouse (10-17million tones).

Imo more possible scenario is Thailand sell at loss to China, but because it's G to G they don't need to open their price to public (less embarassing). I'm seriously doubt China want to subsidy Thailand farmer several billion dollar every year just to save Yingluck skin. Beside it's huge victory for Yingluck if She can sell to China at premium price, i bet she already announced it to boost support for her if it really happen.

As the terms are not disclosed, I would not reiterate and speculate too much on it. I am not disposed to believe that this deal is not better than the market price, for reason that Yingluck could have dump it into market.

I am not saying you are wrong but I am not convinced.
 
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Hey how can they dare to launch such protest against the most cute Prime Minister in the world right nowo_O
 
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Hey how can they dare to launch such protest against the most cute Prime Minister in the world right nowo_O

They are a bunch of USA supported criminals doing a coup drawing supporting from all evil forces, to usurp democracy. Something similar to how USA support Suharto against Sukarno earlier allying with Islamofacist, who deemed progressive Sukarno a threat to backward superstitious. Anything good to people is bad to these reactionary forces of Abhisit and USA.

Now China and Thaksin is lifting people out of poverty and promoting democracy. This is dangerous.
 
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How safe is Thailand ?

Anyone ..?

Intending to spend New Year there .

Its pretty safe, these protests don't usually affect the tourism industry, unless the shyte really hits the fan! Like it did few years back when the protesters shut down the airport.
 
.
Actually there is an even bigger dimension to this issue. Yingluck group is pro-China supported by people and Abhisit is pro-USA supported by the traditional palace elites. This is a proxy war of China and USA and yet another velvet revolution.

None or few of the western media ever condemn Thai army's earlier against Thaksin and inaction against the mob currently. When the law enforcer does not try stop protester from marching the PM office and sabotaging it, they are equivalent of pro-mob.

The fall of Thailand to the China camp will be a deadly blow to USA projection in Indochina. So far, Cambodia is China ally. Vietnam's pro China camp is slightly in the upper hand. Myanmar is a fence sitter. If Thailand goes to China, Indochina will be firmly pro China gradually.

USA think thanks came out with this idea call China Monroe Doctrine decades ago, and have no illusion that China will project its power in SE Asia and re-oriented SE Asia back to herself once she has the ability to do so.

The last straw on the back of camel that trigger the taking down of Yingluck appears to be 2 event.

  1. The rejection of Amnesty be oppostion
  2. The barter of rice with China for high speed rail
Yingluck proposed an political amnesty which will bring back Thaksin but will also spare the Democrats from 2010 style massacre that resulted to more than 100 death. The opposition has more to gain than Thaksin. Thaksin was indicted for corruption, a way of life in Thai politics where everyone are in it, and no evidence that Thaksin has gone overboard.

Abhisit was guilty for brutal crackdown of peaceful protest. By rejecting the amnesty, summons are issued to the Dems' leaders and right now, any inaction spell the end of their political life.

The rice bartering for HSR raised alarm not just in Thailand, but USA. Yingluck has treated the peasant well by raising the rice purchase price but this is also draining to the government treasury, and subjected to perpetual mockery by western press. The "free market capitalist" would like to see her fail. But her deal with China's premier Li Keqiang change the whole game. Not only she can now continue her program, meanwhile Thailand will get a HSR which integrate her firmly with China.

Up to this point, a take down against her government is inevitable.

I project Thaksin group will win in the long run for reason.

  1. USA is waning and China is emerging. China has more resource and view Thailand as an important partner that she is very willing to dedicate resource into Thailand.
  2. The USA supported palace and Democrates are selfish and corrupt. They are a reactionary force and they support a quasi feudal system, under the name of free market capitalism. They have lost support of the people.
  3. Thaksin with all his flaws wanted to do something for the people, and move the country forward. Things get done under Thaksin. His free heathcare program and his sister's high rice price program are the lifeline for a lot of Thais. They have the support of the Thais.
This is a time I hope China plays a direct role in aiding Yingluck fighting off the Thai elites. After all the history of the CPC was built on peasant uprising so we have experience and empathetic with the poor..
 
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