Could terrorists get hold of a nuclear bomb?

[Justin Joseph]

Could terrorists get hold of a nuclear bomb?

By Stephen Mulvey
BBC News

World leaders are heading for Washington to discuss what Barack Obama has described as "the most immediate and extreme threat to global security" - the risk that terrorists could acquire a nuclear bomb. But how likely is this scenario?

A former investigator with the CIA and the US department of energy, Rolf Mowatt-Larssen, says there are three headlines that keep him awake at night:

* Pakistani 'loose nukes' in the hands of terrorists
* North Korea supplies terrorists with nuclear bombs
* Al-Qaeda launches nuclear attack

The good news is that he thinks "the odds are stacked against" terrorists acquiring a nuclear bomb.

But the low probability, he argues, has to be weighed against the awfulness of the consequences.

In today's unpredictable world, he writes in an article for the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, "a probability-based approach to managing risk" makes less sense than one "focused on mitigating threats in descending order of their possible consequences".

It's an argument that Barack Obama was making long before his election.

"Instead of taking aggressive steps to secure the world's most dangerous technology, [the US has] spent almost $1 trillion to occupy a country in the heart of the Middle East that no longer had any weapons of mass destruction," he said in a speech at Purdue University, Indiana, in July 2008.

Three months later, a commission set up by the US Congress warned that without decisive action it was "more likely than not" that a terrorist attack involving WMD would occur by the end of 2013.

Pakistan

In Rolf Mowatt-Larssen's view, there is "a greater possibility of a nuclear meltdown in Pakistan than anywhere else in the world".

The region has more violent extremists than any other, the country is unstable, and its arsenal of nuclear weapons is expanding.

Once a new plutonium reactor comes on line in the near future "smaller, more lethal plutonium bombs will be produced in greater numbers", he says.

Pakistan has taken serious measures to protect the crown jewels of its national security, but it lives in a perilous time
Bruce Riedel, Brookings Institution

The possibility of a Taliban takeover is, he admits, a "worst-case scenario".

But the Taliban and al-Qaeda are not the only shadows on the Pakistani landscape. There is also the Lashkar-e-Taiba militant group, which is accused of carrying out the Mumbai attack in November 2008, and like the Pakistani officer corps, recruits mostly in the Punjab.

"As one senior Pakistani general once told me," wrote Bruce Riedel of the Brookings Institution last week, "the relationship between the army and the Lashkar-e-Taiba is a family affair".

He went on: "Pakistan has taken serious measures to protect the crown jewels of its national security, but it lives in a perilous time. If there is a nightmare nuclear security scenario in Pakistan today it is probably an inside-the-family-job that ends up in a nuclear armageddon in India."

The point is echoed by Ian Kearns of the British American Security Information Council, who writes of the danger that states could use terrorist groups to attack adversaries "by proxy", engineering nuclear security breakdowns to facilitate terrorist access to weapons or materials.

BBC correspondents say there is every indication that the Pakistani military is in total control of the country's nuclear facilities.

North Korea

The reason North Korea keeps Rolf Mowatt-Larssen awake at night is connected with the mysterious site at al-Kibar in Syria, destroyed by Israeli missiles in 2007.


How confident can the international community be that there is not a long-running 'AQ Kim' network in North Korea
Rolf Mowatt-Larssen,
Harvard University

It's his view that North Korea was helping Syria build a reactor there and that the outside world only found out because of a "windfall of intelligence".

"Taking into account the sobering reality that Kim Jong-il came close to providing Syria with the building blocks for nuclear weapons... how confident can the international community be that there is not a long-running 'AQ Kim' network in North Korea that is analogous to the AQ Khan rogue state nuclear supplier network in Pakistan?" he asks.

The episode showed, in his view, that it is hard enough for the intelligence community to spot state-related clandestine nuclear activity, let alone clandestine nuclear trafficking of non-state actors, which would have a much smaller footprint.

North Korea's "erratic and irresponsible behaviour" makes it a leading potential source for terrorists seeking to acquire nuclear-related technologies and materials, he says.

Al-Qaeda

Though he now works in academia, Rolf Mowatt-Larssen led US efforts to determine whether al-Qaeda possessed a nuclear bomb, in the wake of 9/11.


It is a stark and worrying fact, therefore, that nuclear materials and weapons around the world are not as secure as they should be
Ian Kearns, British American Security Information Council

He doesn't believe it does. But "the group's long-held intent and persistent efforts to acquire nuclear and biological weapons represent a unique means of potentially fulfilling their wildest hopes and aspirations," he writes.

Al-Qaeda's experience on the nuclear black market has taught its planners that its best chance lies in constructing an "improvised nuclear device (IND)," he says.

For this they would need either a quantity of plutonium or 25kg-50kg of highly enriched uranium (HEU), the size of one or two grapefruits.

HEU is held in hundreds of buildings in dozens of countries. "Security measures for many of these stocks are excellent, but security for others is appalling," according to a report published in 2008 by the Nuclear Threat Initiative.

The IAEA registered 15 confirmed cases of unauthorised possession of plutonium or HEU between 1993 and 2008, a few of which involved kilogram-sized quantities. In most cases the quantity was far lower but in some cases the sellers indicated there was more. (If there was, it hasn't been traced.)

There is no global inventory of either material, so no-one can be sure how much has gone missing over the years.

Neither are there agreed international standards for security and accounting of these materials. UN Security Council Resolution 1540 merely calls for "appropriate and effective" measures, without defining this in detail.

"It is a stark and worrying fact, therefore, that nuclear materials and weapons around the world are not as secure as they should be," writes Ian Kearns, in a report for the British American Security Information Council.

The main goal of the Washington summit is to make progress on this issue.

BBC News - Could terrorists get hold of a nuclear bomb?

 

[zagahaga]

yes only in india happy?

 

[soul-eater]

well there is no doubt and USA and rest world know that USA is waiting for right time after afghan they will do needful steps with Pakistan

now they need Pakistan but they are just waiting right time

 

[jagjitnatt]

In the current scenario, I think Pak's nukes are safe.

But history has proved that the govt in Pak has not been stable. I just hope we don't see an idiot coming to power in Pak, or even people with extremist views.

Terrorists won't do much harm, they would just take advantage of loop holes in the govt.

A responsible and mature govt would keep things in check.

 

[zagahaga]

well there is no doubt and USA and rest world know that USA is waiting for right time after afghan they will do needful steps with Pakistan

now they need Pakistan but they are just waiting right time

judgeing by your avatar you really dont have a brain so debateing with you is a big waste of time

 

[T-Faz]

On one hand Pakistan is supposedly in charge of Terrorist organisations and commands them and on the other hand they say that the terrorist will take over.

Why do they contradict themselves so much.

 

[Hammy007]

yawn yawn.............................

maybe a trillion threads will be made for this topic, and certainly it makes indians digest their food, what else??

yes terrorist will capture pak nukes along with missiles and planes, because pak has very weak military and it will be launched to india first, happy?? fear us now!!

 

[soul-eater]

 

[Justin Joseph]

yawn yawn.............................

maybe a trillion threads will be made for this topic, and certainly it makes indians digest their food, what else??

yes terrorist will capture pak nukes along with missiles and planes, because pak has very weak military and it will be launched to india first, happy?? fear us now!!

why bring India into this, if u care to read this is by BBC and written a foreign analyst not by a Indian or Indian media.

This shows international concern about the issue.

 

[Kompromat]

Another Troll Thread Begins !

 

[karan.1970]

Reuters AlertNet - ANALYSIS-Pakistan, Russia, U.S. need more nuclear security

12 Apr 2010 22:49:33 GMT
Source: Reuters
* Al Qaeda has tried to get atom bomb material-US official

* UN chief urges ban on fissile material production

By Louis Charbonneau

WASHINGTON, April 12 (Reuters) - Rich and poor countries around the world -- including Pakistan, Russia and the United States -- need to boost security at their nuclear sites if they want to keep atomic bombs out of the hands of terrorists.

The risk of a militant group getting hold of nuclear material and building a bomb with it is "possible, plausible, and over time probable," Robert Gallucci, president of the MacArthur Foundation, told a gathering of nuclear security experts ahead of a summit meeting on the same subject.

John Brennan, U.S. President Barack Obama's counter-terrorism adviser, underlined the threat by telling reporters on the sidelines of Obama's summit that al Qaeda appears to have been trying to get nuclear bomb material.

"There have been numerous reports over the past eight or nine years of attempts to obtain various types of purported material," Brennan said on the sidelines of the summit.

"We know al Qaeda has been involved a number of times. We know they have been scammed a number of times," he said.

Gallucci told the gathering of experts that he had a message for the dozens of world leaders in Washington for Obama's nuclear security summit -- stop producing arms-grade plutonium and uranium, the raw materials for nuclear bombs.

"This material is going to be around for a very long time," he said, adding that growing stockpiles of fissile material for arms increased the risk of it falling into the wrong hands.

Brennan said with more countries investing in nuclear power to meet rising energy demand, there would be a growing amount of potentially dangerous atomic material around the world.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

For full coverage of the summit, click on [ID:nNUCLEAR]

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The experts said that terrorists could theoretically build a crude but deadly nuclear device -- or possibly something more sophisticated if they have the money, technical personnel and required amount of fissile material.

Obtaining arms-grade material is the biggest challenge, which is why keeping it secure is so important.

Representatives of 47 nations are participating in Obama's two-day summit, which ends on Tuesday. The point of the meeting is to agree on an action plan for participants to secure all of their nuclear weapons material within four years so that it is no longer vulnerable to theft. [ID:nN08205832]

BANNING BOMB-GRADE MATERIAL PRODUCTION

The summit -- the biggest U.S.-hosted assembly of world leaders in in Washington six decades -- will be a test of Obama's ability to rally global action on his nuclear agenda.

It had its first tangible outcome when Ukraine announced it would give up its stockpile of highly enriched uranium by 2012, most of it this year.[ID:nN12198232]

Kiev has enough nuclear material for several weapons. It will convert its civil nuclear program to operate on low-enriched uranium. Washington agreed to provide technical and financial support for the effort, U.S. officials said.

Gallucci and other nuclear security experts said that securing nuclear stockpiles was a good place to start, but insufficient. They said it was time to agree a ban on producing fissile material for nuclear weapons.

The 65-nation U.N.-backed Conference on Disarmament in Geneva has long been considering such a ban. But Pakistan has blocked the start of negotiations, arguing that it would put it at a permanent disadvantage to India, with which it has fought three wars since independence in 1947.

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said earlier on Monday that he would urge the 47 participants at the summit to resume negotiations on such a ban without delay.[ID:nN12190511]

Harvard University professor Matthew Bunn said wealthy Western countries like the United States and European Union members needed to do more to improve security at their atomic sites. He said U.S. research reactors that yield plutonium are exempt from U.S. security rules.

Bunn said that exemption should be ended and the costs for upgrading security at research reactors borne by the U.S. Department of Energy.

Pervez Hoodbhoy, a professor at Quaid-i-Azam University in Pakistan, highlighted the risks in South Asia. He said that the situation had changed since disgraced Pakistani scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan admitted in 2004 to sharing nuclear enrichment technology with Iran and Libya.

Since that time, he said, the walls around Pakistan's nuclear program have been "raised higher," which might make it more secure but also more difficult for outsiders to know what is going on. Hoodbhoy said Pakistan has around 80 atomic weapons and bomb-grade material for up to 150 more.

RUSSIA, PAKISTAN CALLED VULNERABLE

Hoodbhoy said Pakistan was very vulnerable. Militants have carried out suicide attacks and successfully targeted installations belonging to the military and the security services in Pakistan, a nuclear weapons state like its neighbor India.

A new report commissioned from Bunn by the U.S.-based Nuclear Threat Initiative said that the highest risks of nuclear theft today were in Pakistan and Russia. The report said Russia's nuclear stockpiles, the largest in the world, could be vulnerable given "endemic corruption in Russia."

Pakistan's heavily guarded stockpile "faces immense threats, both from insiders who may be corrupt or sympathetic to terrorists and from large attacks by outsiders," it said.
Pakistani Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh are among those attending the conference. Neither country signed the 1970 nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty aimed at stopping the spread of nuclear arms. (Editing by Eric Walsh)