Marwat Khan Lodhi
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- Jun 23, 2010
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It should have been general tariq khan, because the new army chief raheel shareef lacks the experience of command in FATA and north west and is committing some big blunders without taking into consideration the complexities of tribal social infrastructure and the history of the region. In December 2013 army was attacked at khajori, they blamed uzbeks for the attack and retaliated by attacking mir ali town with gunship helicopters which has presence of uzbeks and other foreigners according to reports.They claimed that gunship helicopters chased attackers running on the ground all the way from khajori to mir ali, the question arises how the hell attackers survived the shelling of chasing helicopters above their heads?......The gunship helicopters destroyed the entire bazaar, houses and mosques killing more than hundred civilians according the reports of locals, local journalists, parliamentarians and JUI-F.....This clearly indicated that raheel shareef instructed to army to retaliate with full force and apply collective punishment on all those villages and towns where there are militants. Basically Army has been given permission to reply in the same manner as TTP, also increasing the intensity of collective punishment tactic by army. After the attack army imposed continuous curfew in mir ali, hafiz gul bahadur threatened pak army of consequences and army immediately lifted curfew through political administration..............
Army retaliated in response to bannu attack, again with brutality but on much larger scale, jets were used to bomb the hell out of mir ali, eight other villages of north wairistan and also tirah. The message was very clear by army, for every attack on us(not civilians) we would bomb the hell out of your people (militants plus civilians of waziristan).......Pak army could have used highly planned commando raids on houses of taliban in the middle of night, but jets were used as intention was revenge and terrorize the locals..........Now it seems that Pak army is heading for full scale military operation in north waziristan, the false reports of deaths of adanan rasheed, shaheen bhittani and uzbeks were propagated by pak army and political administration under it, to convince the general public and government that congratulate us on our effective and 100 % precise bombardments and support us in military operation which would relive you from terrorism that is taking place in punjab, balochistan and karachi.
No one is discussing about the consequences. Lets discuss about the consequences of military operation in north waziristan without peace talks.
1- Hafiz gul bahadur.
The most powerful the local Taliban commander in north Waziristan which has tribal base of utmanzai wazirs and dawars, which the haqqanis do not. He is descendant of famous faqir of ipi and is proper aalim so he has huge respect and support among wazirs and dawars. He has peace deal with army since 2007 i guess and is focused on Afghanistan. He is allied with haqqani network and he is also sheltering TTP in north waziristan. . Your peace treaty with him would become null and void in case of full scale military operation in north waziristan. He would join hands with TTP and even uzbeks against you .unlike south waziristan operation of 2009 in which mehusd taliban preferred to retreat due to leadership crisis after death of baitullah mehsud , hafiz gul bahadur would offer you a very solid resistance, he has draws very solid loyalties from tribal elders of utmanzai wazirs.........moreover the area of north waziristan adjacent to afghan border is under his influence , they would simply retreat to afghanistan if overwhelmed by military power.
2- TTP
They are not natives to north waziristan but the area has become their operational base after they lost mehsud territoy to army in 2009. They are dangerous for punjab because they have alliances with all Punjabi militants and sectarian outfits (except lashar e taiba). They have also support of uzbeks. Moreover they are also allied with mangal bagh now. They have operational cooperation with haqqani netwrok in afghanistan.Their new leader fazlullah , has great respect among afghan taliban. They would fight along side hafiz gul bahadur and haqqanis against you and would simply retreat to afghanistan once they lost north waziristan. cross border attacks from kuner and nooristan against army check post would increase by many folds after that.
3-Haqqani network
Long-time allies of the Pakistani ISI. north Waziristan is operational base for them. Also lakki marwat, bannu, and tank are recruiting areas for them. Haqqani have friendhips with both TTP and hafz gul bahadur group. Haqqani network needs sanctuaries in paksiatn to operate successfully in Afghanistan. By denying them space in north wairistan , you are not only making them enemies but also all afghan Taliban groups. Loya pakyita (khost, paktika and paktiya) are strongholds by haqqabi network, they border pakistan. HQ has relationships with Uzbeks, ttp, hafiz gul bahadur group and Taliban of ahmadzai wazirs of south waziristan. Their focus is afghanistan, so they might not engage you miliatrily in north waziristan. But as they would suffer huge losses due to loss of sanctuaries in pakistan, they would provide TTP and hafiz gul bahadur , IMU and Punjabi taliban sanctuaries in loy paktiya.....or even the entire pashtun belt of afghanistan might become strategic depth for TTP.
4_ Ahmadzai wazirs of south waziristan
The taliban groups among them are allied with haqqani network and would support fellow wazirs of north waziristan . Nek mohammad and mullah nazir were their prominent taliban leaders. Like utmanzias, taliban have deep social roots in ahamazai wazirs. Half of their tribe is on other side of durand line so they pose a serious threat. Moreover the mehsud area is sandwiched between wazirs of south wazitistan and of north waziristan. The army in ghost region of mehsuds might face attacks from three sides 1-wana, shakai 2-afghanistan 3-shawal valley of north waziristan................it might prove disaster for pak army.,
Army retaliated in response to bannu attack, again with brutality but on much larger scale, jets were used to bomb the hell out of mir ali, eight other villages of north wairistan and also tirah. The message was very clear by army, for every attack on us(not civilians) we would bomb the hell out of your people (militants plus civilians of waziristan).......Pak army could have used highly planned commando raids on houses of taliban in the middle of night, but jets were used as intention was revenge and terrorize the locals..........Now it seems that Pak army is heading for full scale military operation in north waziristan, the false reports of deaths of adanan rasheed, shaheen bhittani and uzbeks were propagated by pak army and political administration under it, to convince the general public and government that congratulate us on our effective and 100 % precise bombardments and support us in military operation which would relive you from terrorism that is taking place in punjab, balochistan and karachi.
No one is discussing about the consequences. Lets discuss about the consequences of military operation in north waziristan without peace talks.
1- Hafiz gul bahadur.
The most powerful the local Taliban commander in north Waziristan which has tribal base of utmanzai wazirs and dawars, which the haqqanis do not. He is descendant of famous faqir of ipi and is proper aalim so he has huge respect and support among wazirs and dawars. He has peace deal with army since 2007 i guess and is focused on Afghanistan. He is allied with haqqani network and he is also sheltering TTP in north waziristan. . Your peace treaty with him would become null and void in case of full scale military operation in north waziristan. He would join hands with TTP and even uzbeks against you .unlike south waziristan operation of 2009 in which mehusd taliban preferred to retreat due to leadership crisis after death of baitullah mehsud , hafiz gul bahadur would offer you a very solid resistance, he has draws very solid loyalties from tribal elders of utmanzai wazirs.........moreover the area of north waziristan adjacent to afghan border is under his influence , they would simply retreat to afghanistan if overwhelmed by military power.
2- TTP
They are not natives to north waziristan but the area has become their operational base after they lost mehsud territoy to army in 2009. They are dangerous for punjab because they have alliances with all Punjabi militants and sectarian outfits (except lashar e taiba). They have also support of uzbeks. Moreover they are also allied with mangal bagh now. They have operational cooperation with haqqani netwrok in afghanistan.Their new leader fazlullah , has great respect among afghan taliban. They would fight along side hafiz gul bahadur and haqqanis against you and would simply retreat to afghanistan once they lost north waziristan. cross border attacks from kuner and nooristan against army check post would increase by many folds after that.
3-Haqqani network
Long-time allies of the Pakistani ISI. north Waziristan is operational base for them. Also lakki marwat, bannu, and tank are recruiting areas for them. Haqqani have friendhips with both TTP and hafz gul bahadur group. Haqqani network needs sanctuaries in paksiatn to operate successfully in Afghanistan. By denying them space in north wairistan , you are not only making them enemies but also all afghan Taliban groups. Loya pakyita (khost, paktika and paktiya) are strongholds by haqqabi network, they border pakistan. HQ has relationships with Uzbeks, ttp, hafiz gul bahadur group and Taliban of ahmadzai wazirs of south waziristan. Their focus is afghanistan, so they might not engage you miliatrily in north waziristan. But as they would suffer huge losses due to loss of sanctuaries in pakistan, they would provide TTP and hafiz gul bahadur , IMU and Punjabi taliban sanctuaries in loy paktiya.....or even the entire pashtun belt of afghanistan might become strategic depth for TTP.
4_ Ahmadzai wazirs of south waziristan
The taliban groups among them are allied with haqqani network and would support fellow wazirs of north waziristan . Nek mohammad and mullah nazir were their prominent taliban leaders. Like utmanzias, taliban have deep social roots in ahamazai wazirs. Half of their tribe is on other side of durand line so they pose a serious threat. Moreover the mehsud area is sandwiched between wazirs of south wazitistan and of north waziristan. The army in ghost region of mehsuds might face attacks from three sides 1-wana, shakai 2-afghanistan 3-shawal valley of north waziristan................it might prove disaster for pak army.,
