CONgress:
206 seats have come from the following in 2009:
- Andhra Pradesh (33)
- Uttar Pradesh (21)
- Rajasthan (20)
- Maharashtra (17)
- Kerala (13)
i.e. 104 seats from 5 states alone and decent performances in several others (e.g., Assam, Haryana, Punjab, Tamil Nadu, Delhi etc)
Think about Congress' position in these 5 states today:
- Andhra Pradesh -- YSR's son Jagan has swept the recently concluded bypolls, it's ally MIM has now broken away and there's an exodus from Congress to YSRCP
- Uttar Pradesh -- If Assembly elections in March are any thing to go by, they're likely doomed here
- Rajasthan -- Anti-incumbency, corruption, power scenario, Meena and Gujjar issues could see their tally coming down
-- Maharashtra -- Their tallest leader here (Vilasrao) passed away recently, their ex CM (Shinde) has barely spent time here ever since he's been "promoted" to the central cabinet, one CM (Ashok Chavan) had to resign over Adarsh. Moreover, there's anti-incumbency of 14 years which is surely bound to play a role.
Congress has peaked, it's well past its prime, a combination of local and national issues (inflation, brazen corruption, unemployment etc) will severely dent its prospects and could see its tally halving to 100-120 range.
Baba Ramdev, who has large following, has turned against Congress, just because Congress is on vendetta against baba and IS investigating his trust - Its on.
Aam Admi party of Kejriwal is certain to dent Congress votes in Delhi for sure with huge rallys.
The question is who gains -- in most states (save three southern states of AP, TN and Kerala), the clear answer is BJP directly.
Plus Modi has the additional support of Jayalalitha in TN (likely to sweep TN given severe reversal in DMK's fortunes), Navin Patnaik in Orissa, Shiv Sena / MNS (both factions support him openly) and the Akalis. In addition, word is that Mamata could support NaMo "from the outside" (though this is yet to be confirmed).
In UP, Assam and border areas of West Bengal, where communal polarization is likely (largely due to demographics), Modi could be used to energize the demoralized cadres and consolidate the majority vote (as it was done in the 90s).
People here (as in the media) tend to play up Nitish Kumar playing spoiler. Let's look at the facts -- Nitish's own govt in Bihar is dependent on BJP's support (JDU has 115 seats and BJP has 91 seats). If Nitish refuses to support BJP/Modi, he could end up losing his own Chief Ministership. A lot of his posturing is to appeal to his Muslim votebank currently, but come elections, he'll sing the development tune and support Modi (at best, he'll position it as "support from the outside").
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gotcha
Very bad 
remember we met 'next door' before you decided to stay away because of your 'suspicions' about who owned next door? very bad you forgot your friends 
