Comparing total tonnages of USN and PLAN main surface combatant platforms within 2021-2030 projections

[T-SaGe]

(This table posted by Oguzhan Eren. You can contact him for corrections or missing entries. www.twitter.com/intoguzhan )

It seems that although China has outpaced the US in terms of total surface platform quantities, it will continue to remain behind the US not only in terms of power projection but also VLS counts. However, the progress in the Chinese navy is dazzling.

 

[monitor]

(This table posted by Oguzhan Eren. You can contact him for corrections or missing entries. www.twitter.com/intoguzhan )

It seems that although China has outpaced the US in terms of total surface platform quantities, it will continue to remain behind the US not only in terms of power projection but also VLS counts. However, the progress in the Chinese navy is dazzling.

Its Clear from the chart US Navy will continue to dominate over China in foreseeable future both in terms of total displacement and the fire power . US Navy power fire power is three times of Chinese now it will reduce to 1.7 in nine years but still lag behind Chinese .

 

[Whizzack]

What's the breakdown of the tonnage...?
ie how much of those tonnage goes to CVs/LHAs/LHDs/LPDs..? how much goes to Cruisers/Destroyers/Frigates/etc..? how much goes to SSBNs / SSNs / SSKs..? how much goes to Tankers / oilers / replenishment ships etc...

 

[Invicta]

What's the breakdown of the tonnage...?
ie how much of those tonnage goes to CVs/LHAs/LHDs/LPDs..? how much goes to Cruisers/Destroyers/Frigates/etc..? how much goes to SSBNs / SSNs / SSKs..? how much goes to Tankers / oilers / replenishment ships etc...

This only includes the surface combatants, Destroyers, Frigates and LCS. This is not giving the full picture though, the sensor and armament of each ship should be the main bar of comparison. Unfortunately we will never know the full capabilities of all these different ships. Numbers only matter so much, if Zumwalt is anywhere near as good as originally thought the other PLAN ships don't stand a chance, equally PLAN might have an ace up their sleeve that will neutralise majority of USN assets.

Same goes for sub fleets and AC fleet. This comparison is very weak.

 

[Invicta]

This also does not take into account the huge lead in aircraft carriers that the US will have still in 2030.

As already mentioned the massive lead that the US will also have in SSNs still in 2030, although the Chinese will cut this from now somewhat with decent numbers of Type-095 SSNs, will mean that the USN will still dominate the PLAAN even from only 1000 miles out from the Chinese coastline.

They will cut the numbers but the quality will be questionable, the sensor suites on US subs and European subs are well ahead of anything that China has been able to install on their own Subs so far. Their main reliance is on old French tech and Russian tech. China has just started extending its reach while the US has been the bad boy in every street and nook and cranny around the world. It will take a long time before PLAN even has the experience to challenge USN they are on the right track but not there yet.

 

[Bengal71]

This does not take into account he entire US navy can't be deployed to fight the Chinese. But if there is a war in SCS, the entire Chinese navy will be deployed.

 

[UKBengali]

They will cut the numbers but the quality will be questionable, the sensor suites on US subs and European subs are well ahead of anything that China has been able to install on their own Subs so far. Their main reliance is on old French tech and Russian tech. China has just started extending its reach while the US has been the bad boy in every street and nook and cranny around the world. It will take a long time before PLAN even has the experience to challenge USN they are on the right track but not there yet.

I think the slow narrowing of the gap between Chinese and US military tech will continue.

2020: Virginia SSN >> Type-093 SSN
2030: Virgina SSN > Type-095 SSN.


Remember also that the Chinese will probably have a lot more Type-095s by 2030 than Type-093s they have now. The Type-093 was never put into mass production as it simply was nowhere near as good as the Sea Wolf and Virgina class SSNs that the US has.

 

[Invicta]

I think the slow narrowing of the gap between Chinese and US military tech will continue.

2020: Virginia SSN >> Type-093 SSN
2030: Virgina SSN > Type-095 SSN.


Remember also that the Chinese will probably have a lot more Type-095s by 2030 than Type-093s they have now. The Type-093 was never put into mass production as it simply was nowhere near as good as the Sea Wolf and Virgina class SSNs that the US has.

At this point in time your analysis is correct however it will be foolhardy to think the USN is not developing a new Sub. Unless technology stagnates - which it won't - USN will stay ahead unless there is complete change in geo-politics and US economy collapses.

 

[UKBengali]

At this point in time your analysis is correct however it will be foolhardy to think the USN is not developing a new Sub. Unless technology stagnates - which it won't - USN will stay ahead unless there is complete change in geo-politics and US economy collapses.

True the US is developing a new sub but like I say the Chinese will slowly keep closing the gap.

This is the law of technological advancement as it is easier to catch up when one is behind. Never in history has anything else happened - look at the competition with USA and USSR in cold war - by the end of the cold war the Soviet Union had almost matched the US in military technology in nearly every area whereas in the 1960s it was a good decade behind the US.

Remember the Chinese will also already have started developing the follow on to the Type-095SSN and we could see that one coming out in the 2030s along with the next-gen US sub.

It would be impossible for the USN to keep its lead over the PLAAN constant when China has the engineers and money to keep developing its military technology across all sectors.

 

[TOTUU]

True the US is developing a new sub but like I say the Chinese will slowly keep closing the gap.

This is the law of technological advancement as it is easier to catch up when one is behind. Never in history has anything else happened - look at the competition with USA and USSR in cold war - by the end of the cold war the Soviet Union had almost matched the US in military technology in nearly every area whereas in the 1960s it was a good decade behind the US.

Remember the Chinese will also already have started developing the follow on to the Type-095SSN and we could see that one coming out in the 2030s along with the next-gen US sub.

It would be impossible for the USN to keep its lead over the PLAAN constant when China has the engineers and money to keep developing its military technology across all sectors.

I once read a report that China will be on par with the U.S. militarily by 2027. by 2035, China will surpass the U.S. in terms of combined national power. I personally think this report is very credible. When China's economic and technological power comes up, what once seemed difficult will become easy. 2005 China will be far behind the pace of developing nuclear submarines than 2021 China will be.


The speed of catching up is an accelerating process 。

2018 4. VS 2021.12

 

[Mk-313]

I once read a report that China will be on par with the U.S. militarily by 2027. by 2035, China will surpass the U.S. in terms of combined national power. I personally think this report is very credible. When China's economic and technological power comes up, what once seemed difficult will become easy. 2005 China will be far behind the pace of developing nuclear submarines than 2021 China will be.


The speed of catching up is an accelerating process 。

2018 4. VS 2021.12

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The problem with those reports are that they are based on current state of things. It is for example if things stay as it is and chinas pace is faster by number they will surpass

but they never take into account that once status quo is challenged the other party reacts. And their reaction in the future cannot he projected into numbers

take 2005 from ur example, we didn’t even bother with China and every report that had came out then predicting chinas future would have never thought that Huaweii will get banned, trade wars will erupt. Dept of defense will shift from Middle East to China or billions will be poured into chinas containment etc etc

 

[Chacha_Facebooka]

Is this just the Pacific fleet? Isn't U.S. engaged across the planet? They are not gonna put the entire navy in one theatre are they?

 

[IblinI]

Its Clear from the chart US Navy will continue to dominate over China in foreseeable future both in terms of total displacement and the fire power . US Navy power fire power is three times of Chinese now it will reduce to 1.7 in nine years but still lag behind Chinese .

naval build up required decades, by mid of this century seems to be a sensible timeline for PLAN to be almost on par with US navy.

 

[TOTUU]

The problem with those reports are that they are based on current state of things. It is for example if things stay as it is and chinas pace is faster by number they will surpass

but they never take into account that once status quo is challenged the other party reacts. And their reaction in the future cannot he projected into numbers

Yes, you are right, I agree. It is a linear prediction.

take 2005 from ur example, we didn’t even bother with China and every report that had came out then predicting chinas future would have never thought that Huaweii will get banned, trade wars will erupt. Dept of defense will shift from Middle East to China or billions will be poured into chinas containment etc etc

I don't agree with this paragraph. The situation described here was predicted by both China and the United States .

The trend of U.S.-China relations behind 2021 is also all predicted again, and the reactions of both sides are expected without major changes. No matter who becomes president or which party is in power, it will not change the course of U.S.-China relations for the next two decades.

The relationship between China and the United States will recover after 2035. This is determined by the power of the country. It is normal for China now to be contained and suppressed by the U.S. When China's comprehensive national power completely surpasses that of the U.S. after 2035, the relationship between the U.S. and China will tend to moderate.

I'm actually more worried about the division of the United States, the United States is now a very serious domestic situation, handled badly, the United States is likely to go to civil war.
Now the United States through a variety of China topics to gather consensus is not a good thing, which just shows that the United States internal division is serious, has been unable to rely on itself to maintain the national consensus.

 

[patero]

The problem with those reports are that they are based on current state of things. It is for example if things stay as it is and chinas pace is faster by number they will surpass

but they never take into account that once status quo is challenged the other party reacts. And their reaction in the future cannot he projected into numbers

take 2005 from ur example, we didn’t even bother with China and every report that had came out then predicting chinas future would have never thought that Huaweii will get banned, trade wars will erupt. Dept of defense will shift from Middle East to China or billions will be poured into chinas containment etc etc

It is doubtful that China can afford to increase production indefinitely whilst maintaining it's fleet and personal costs. Much like the Soviet Union before them, China could drive itself broke trying to keep up with the US. There are already signs they are hitting the wall such as the 004 AC postponement.