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[Chon Shi-yong] Silk Road: Path to empire?

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The One Belt, One Road initiative is a key focus of China’s foreign policy. As it is the most cherished project of President Xi Jinping, the Beijing government is mobilizing its massive diplomatic and financial resources for the initiative.
20150924001641_0.jpg
The project, which aims to link the countries that were on the ancient Silk Road routes — the land- and ocean-based ones — through transportation and infrastructure networks, started two years ago. It involves about 50 countries in areas as vast as Central Asia, Middle East, Southeast Asia, Europe and North Africa.

Xi outlined the land-based Silk Road Economic Belt policy in September 2013 during his visit to Kazakhstan. He proclaimed the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road initiative in Indonesia one month later.

Thereafter, the project, commonly called the Belt and Road initiative, has become a top national agenda for government officials, diplomats, academics and the state-run media.

It simply has become so big a national craze that a short stay in the southern city of Nanning during the annual China-ASEAN Expo last week was sufficient for a visitor to ascertain the country’s eagerness to push the project.

The expo, a signature project for promoting relations between China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, has taken place every year since 2004, with this year’s event geared to promote the Maritime Silk Road, for which ASEAN forms a core platform.

The Chinese couldn’t have chosen a better place than Nanning and the broader Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region, because the region is considered China’s gateway to Southeast Asia. There were signboards everywhere in the city, bearing slogans like “A Grand Opening for the vision of the Silk Road” and “Gather at CAEXPO, Tap Belt and Road Opportunities.”

Noble intentions?


Many Chinese I saw in Nanning spoke about their noble intentions and the positive aspects of the initiative.

Vice Premier Zhang Gaoli, speaking at the expo opening ceremony, took the lead in asserting the positive aspects of the initiative for enhancing regional connectivity, which he said “would deepen cooperation and exchange of our regions as our ancestors did 2,000 years ago.”

Chen Bingcai, a scholar from the Chinese Academy of Governance, said the initiative was not exclusive and that it was compatible with similar strategies in other countries. Speaking at a media forum, he also said the project could be connected to South Korea and Japan. (Hearing that they even launched infrastructure projects in countries as far apart as Laos and Serbia, I have to admit that President Park Geun-hye’s Eurasia Initiative pales so much in comparison to the Chinese initiative.)

The forum, cohosted by the China Daily and the Asia News Network — an alliance of 23 newspapers in Asia — drew executives and editors, as well as foreign and local experts and Chinese government officials.

What was good was that the Chinese organizers made sure the participants could get some “balanced” views. This was necessary because there are misgivings about China’s intentions.

After all, a project of this kind cannot be free from politics. You need look no further than the maritime territorial disputes in the South China Sea, which pits China against some ASEAN members.

Li Mingjiang, a professor from Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, said ASEAN was largely positive about the Belt and Road initiative, mainly due to its potential for long-term economic development.

He said countries like Thailand, Cambodia, Laos endorsed the Chinese initiative without any reservation. The deputy prime ministers of Thailand and Laos indeed offered their full support in their opening speeches.

The Laotian deputy prime minister, speaking in Mandarin, even praised the initiative as a “farsighted” vision, and expressed appreciation to China for helping with its satellite and railroad projects, which he said were turning his country “from a land-locked nation to a land-linked nation.”

Misgivings

The second group, Li said, is largely supportive, but has notable concern that the initiative could become a political and strategic tool. This group includes Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia and Brunei.

Then comes the third group: They are the least supportive, for understandable reasons such as the disputes in the South China Sea. They include Vietnam, the Philippines and Myanmar. It was not surprising that the Vietnamese executive deputy prime minister, speaking at the expo opening ceremony, said the Chinese proposal was welcome, but without forgetting to emphasize “equality.”

Zhao, the vice premier, said that China will resolve the maritime disputes with its neighbors through negotiation and based on political mutual trust. He noted that China and ASEAN would hold a defense ministers’ meeting next month.

But it will not be easy for China to — as Zhao promised — promote the initiative by allaying the lingering suspicions held not only by the ASEAN countries but also other powers like Europe, the U.S. and Japan, which may see the Chinese westward march as part of its work to build an empire.

“I wonder if it’s possible for China and these external powers to work out a formal mechanism so that the external powers don’t feel threatened,” Li said.

By Chon Shi-yong

Chon Shi-yong is the chief editorial writer of The Korea Herald. He can be contacted at sychon@heraldcorp.com. — Ed.


[Chon Shi-yong] Silk Road: Path to empire?
 
. .
The One Belt, One Road initiative is a key focus of China’s foreign policy. As it is the most cherished project of President Xi Jinping, the Beijing government is mobilizing its massive diplomatic and financial resources for the initiative.
20150924001641_0.jpg
The project, which aims to link the countries that were on the ancient Silk Road routes — the land- and ocean-based ones — through transportation and infrastructure networks, started two years ago. It involves about 50 countries in areas as vast as Central Asia, Middle East, Southeast Asia, Europe and North Africa.

Xi outlined the land-based Silk Road Economic Belt policy in September 2013 during his visit to Kazakhstan. He proclaimed the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road initiative in Indonesia one month later.

Thereafter, the project, commonly called the Belt and Road initiative, has become a top national agenda for government officials, diplomats, academics and the state-run media.

It simply has become so big a national craze that a short stay in the southern city of Nanning during the annual China-ASEAN Expo last week was sufficient for a visitor to ascertain the country’s eagerness to push the project.

The expo, a signature project for promoting relations between China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, has taken place every year since 2004, with this year’s event geared to promote the Maritime Silk Road, for which ASEAN forms a core platform.

The Chinese couldn’t have chosen a better place than Nanning and the broader Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region, because the region is considered China’s gateway to Southeast Asia. There were signboards everywhere in the city, bearing slogans like “A Grand Opening for the vision of the Silk Road” and “Gather at CAEXPO, Tap Belt and Road Opportunities.”

Noble intentions?


Many Chinese I saw in Nanning spoke about their noble intentions and the positive aspects of the initiative.

Vice Premier Zhang Gaoli, speaking at the expo opening ceremony, took the lead in asserting the positive aspects of the initiative for enhancing regional connectivity, which he said “would deepen cooperation and exchange of our regions as our ancestors did 2,000 years ago.”

Chen Bingcai, a scholar from the Chinese Academy of Governance, said the initiative was not exclusive and that it was compatible with similar strategies in other countries. Speaking at a media forum, he also said the project could be connected to South Korea and Japan. (Hearing that they even launched infrastructure projects in countries as far apart as Laos and Serbia, I have to admit that President Park Geun-hye’s Eurasia Initiative pales so much in comparison to the Chinese initiative.)

The forum, cohosted by the China Daily and the Asia News Network — an alliance of 23 newspapers in Asia — drew executives and editors, as well as foreign and local experts and Chinese government officials.

What was good was that the Chinese organizers made sure the participants could get some “balanced” views. This was necessary because there are misgivings about China’s intentions.

After all, a project of this kind cannot be free from politics. You need look no further than the maritime territorial disputes in the South China Sea, which pits China against some ASEAN members.

Li Mingjiang, a professor from Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, said ASEAN was largely positive about the Belt and Road initiative, mainly due to its potential for long-term economic development.

He said countries like Thailand, Cambodia, Laos endorsed the Chinese initiative without any reservation. The deputy prime ministers of Thailand and Laos indeed offered their full support in their opening speeches.

The Laotian deputy prime minister, speaking in Mandarin, even praised the initiative as a “farsighted” vision, and expressed appreciation to China for helping with its satellite and railroad projects, which he said were turning his country “from a land-locked nation to a land-linked nation.”

Misgivings

The second group, Li said, is largely supportive, but has notable concern that the initiative could become a political and strategic tool. This group includes Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia and Brunei.

Then comes the third group: They are the least supportive, for understandable reasons such as the disputes in the South China Sea. They include Vietnam, the Philippines and Myanmar. It was not surprising that the Vietnamese executive deputy prime minister, speaking at the expo opening ceremony, said the Chinese proposal was welcome, but without forgetting to emphasize “equality.”

Zhao, the vice premier, said that China will resolve the maritime disputes with its neighbors through negotiation and based on political mutual trust. He noted that China and ASEAN would hold a defense ministers’ meeting next month.

But it will not be easy for China to — as Zhao promised — promote the initiative by allaying the lingering suspicions held not only by the ASEAN countries but also other powers like Europe, the U.S. and Japan, which may see the Chinese westward march as part of its work to build an empire.

“I wonder if it’s possible for China and these external powers to work out a formal mechanism so that the external powers don’t feel threatened,” Li said.

By Chon Shi-yong

Chon Shi-yong is the chief editorial writer of The Korea Herald. He can be contacted at sychon@heraldcorp.com. — Ed.


[Chon Shi-yong] Silk Road: Path to empire?


Please someone save me. My post is being liked by pakistanis exclusively, which makes me feel guilty of having given the Pakistanis to like something.
 
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CPEC will be the centerpiece of the new silk road.

Gwadar Port.jpg


Once CPEC is done, China bypasses the Strait of Malacca completely.

Vast amounts of raw materials from Africa, oil and natural gas from the Middle East will flow through Pakistan into China.

Pakistan will make vast amounts of money from transit fees alone.

The PLA gets a shortcut to the Arabian Sea.

China has the option of deploying J-20, H-6K, DF-10A, DF-21D, and DF-26 directly in Pakistan during an emergency.

China/Pakistan gains de facto control of the Middle East.
 
. .
Once CPEC is done, China bypasses the Strait of Malacca completely.

Hmm, i see a weakness in this argumentation, however. Even if China were to rely on the silk road, the reality of it bypasisng the malaccas strait or maritime fleet is nonsensical. Besides, the United States, Japan, South Korea, India, Indonesia (and most of ASEAN countries) et al will still rely on maritime routes and the level of maritime traffic through the Malaccas Straits will remain relatively high.

China is already an empire imo with such a vast territory and 1.35 billion people.

Not really an empire, just a continental-sized Super Nation. The same as Russia, the United States, India, Brazil.
 
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Hmm, i see a weakness in this argumentation, however. Even if China were to rely on the silk road, the reality of it bypasisng the malaccas strait or maritime fleet is nonsensical. Besides, the United States, Japan, South Korea, India, Indonesia (and most of ASEAN countries) et al will still rely on maritime routes and the level of maritime traffic through the Malaccas Straits will remain relatively high.

China will certainly use the Strait of Malacca during peacetime. But wartime is a different matter.

The US can mine the Strait of Malacca anytime they want.

quickstrikea.jpg


US_Navy_040705-N-1050K-004_A_MK_62_Quick_Strike_mine_is_deployed_from_the_starboard_wing_of_a_P-3C_Orion_aircraft_form_the_Grey_Knights_of_Patrol_Squadron_Four_Six_(VP-46).jpg


I think a lot of people mistakenly assume that the politically correct version of the US you see today is here to stay.

Give it a decade or two. If the US economy continues to worsen, you will see the aggressive US foreign policy return.

They might make the decision to sabotage all of East Asia to protect themselves.
 
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China will certainly use the Strait of Malacca during peacetime. But wartime is a different matter.

The US can mine the Strait of Malacca anytime they want.

View attachment 260877

US_Navy_040705-N-1050K-004_A_MK_62_Quick_Strike_mine_is_deployed_from_the_starboard_wing_of_a_P-3C_Orion_aircraft_form_the_Grey_Knights_of_Patrol_Squadron_Four_Six_(VP-46).jpg


I think a lot of people mistakenly assume that the politically correct version of the US you see today is here to stay.

Give it a decade or two. If the US economy continues to worsen, you will see the aggressive US foreign policy return.

They might make the decision to sabotage all of East Asia to protect themselves.

Mine the Straits of Malaccas? Perhaps you have not read or been introduced to US Naval Maritime Doctrine, but the Americans and their naval processes have always seen the importance of preserving international navigational freedom. In fact they're very embedded in this due to the fact that their stance is in continuity with the 1982 LOS (Law of the Sea) is a well subscribed treaty. In fact over 145 states have ratified and acceded to the Convention, which list includes four of the permanent five members of the Security Council. If you have also read the US Naval War College's various reports on navigational schema, you'll notice that the US Navy has officially placated the importance of fighting mining activities and that one of the various reasons why the US Navy would intervene in litoral and extra-litoral waters would be in response to provocations by states threatening to or actually mining water where international trade traverses.

Your posit is moot since the likelihood of the US Navy mining the Malaccas straits is not only contrary and contradictive to US Navy 7th Fleet Objectives, but would be in total clear violation of the coastal sovereignty of the partners in Southeast Asia, which the US has cultivated in rapport with through CARAT. So you see how it is not only geopolitically contradictive, but realistically and relativistically impossible? In fact to adopt such a stance would only be if the US Navy and the US Military was trying to incite regional antagonism and sacrifice its growing clout in the region. I doubt that the United States, which has a phenomenal global military influence, would adopt such a nonsensical position. In fact it's not only strategically but also tactically imbecilic.

I doubt the United States' War Colleges and Joint Chiefs of Staff would be that benighted.




Reference:

http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a546081.pdf

PS. I do believe that the United States would make sure that any forces trying to endanger freedom of navigation by neutralizing any forces that were actively trying to 'mine' international trade waters. The Malaccas Strait is vital to the US trade systems, and trust me the US would annihilate any perceived inhibitive threat to that trade route. Naturally the US Navy would be given assistance by the Japanese Maritime Self Defense Force in vanquishing any threat(s).

0026_Come_Prepared_Cropped_CRP-16-9.jpg
 
.
CPEC will be the centerpiece of the new silk road.

View attachment 260872

Once CPEC is done, China bypasses the Strait of Malacca completely.

Vast amounts of raw materials from Africa, oil and natural gas from the Middle East will flow through Pakistan into China.

Pakistan will make vast amounts of money from transit fees alone.

The PLA gets a shortcut to the Arabian Sea.

China has the option of deploying J-20, H-6K, DF-10A, DF-21D, and DF-26 directly in Pakistan during an emergency.

China/Pakistan gains de facto control of the Middle East.

This is true. Pakistan and China will indeed have a very close strategic partnership/alliance. CPEC is one of the crucial pieces of the new Silk Road and belt initiative, so Pakistan will be a very important for China for decades to come.
 
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This is true. Pakistan and China will indeed have a very close strategic partnership/alliance. CPEC is one of the crucial pieces of the new Silk Road and belt initiative, so Pakistan will be a very important for China for decades to come.

Don't be so naive to think that the Islamic Republic of Pakistan is only aligned with China. Pakistan, if you have not noticed, is a strategic ally of the United States, and Pakistan has cooperated with and will continue to cooperate with her partners in Europe, in Japan, and Latin America. Pakistan as a growing regional power in South-Central Asia maintains non-alignment and operates a policy of benign non-interference when it comes to regional stability. I should say that Pakistan is also a vital member in the world community in fighting and leading the fight against global terrorism. That is a crucial fact we all , world members, have to consider.

Pakistan is a key player with the world. She has multiple partners and her partners have vested interest and trust in Pakistan. And Pakistan to us.
 
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As long as China can receive oil via tank car from Russia, Kazakhstan, Iran, and Middle East we can survive any war.

dot2.jpg


This is why land-based infrastructure across the Asian continent is crucial and the AIIB/One Belt, One Road was designed to facilitate this very thing.

The Strait of Malacca will be mined during wartime.:devil:
 
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