Chinese Puzzle in India-Bangladesh Relations

[Al-zakir]

Anand Kumar

April 19, 2010

Close on the heels of her visit to India, Bangladesh Prime Minister Shaikh Hasina visited China. Hasina’s visit needs to be seen in the context of past attempts by Bangladesh to use China as a counter-balance against India. However, a fundamental difference this time around was the fact that the Hasina government, which came to power in the 2008 elections, is widely perceived as India-friendly. Thus, it is of interest to see what approach this friendly government takes towards China whose growing presence in South Asia has been a cause of discomfort to India.

The significance of China can be gauged from the fact that whether to visit China or India first has been a dilemma faced by every Bangladeshi prime minister. Hasina knew that a visit first to India would give a chance to her detractors to say that she is following a pro-India policy, irrespective of the visit’s agenda. The more vociferous ones would even blame her of a sell out, which they eventually did.

A lot of euphoria was created in both India and Bangladesh after Shaikh Hasina’s India visit in January 2010. This was not without reason. There were path breaking elements in the joint communiqué and in the agreements signed. Bangladesh’s cooperation on counter-terrorism was especially noteworthy. But it is also true that the growing strength of jihadist forces in Bangladesh had created problems for the Awami League itself with many of its leaders becoming victims of jihadist activities. Hasina herself had faced several attacks on her life and she barely survived one of them. Clearly, cooperation on counter-terrorism was equally important for both India and Bangladesh. Still Shaikh Hasina should be congratulated for her cooperation on counter-terrorism and progressive thinking. Her conviction to take a line different from that of her predecessor is admirable.

Progress was also made on the issue of transit, euphemistically referred to as connectivity. Bangladesh agreed to allow the use of Mongla and Chittagong sea ports for movement of goods to and from India by road and rail. It also conveyed its intention to provide Nepal and Bhutan access to these two ports. It was also agreed that the Akhaura-Agartala railway link would be constructed and that it would be financed with a grant from India.

But India’s enthusiasm has dampened after Hasina’s visit to China, principally because similar transit facilities have been granted to China as well. Bangladesh has sought Chinese assistance in constructing a highway passing through Myanmar to Yunnan province of China. A rail network passing through the same area has also been proposed. And Bangladesh went out of the way to persuade China to further develop and use the Chittagong port and develop a deep sea port at Sonadia Island. A Chinese role in the development of Chittagong is particularly worrisome to India, since it would be similar to China’s involvement in the development of Hambantota in southern Sri Lanka and Gwadar in Baluchistan. China reportedly has access to the Myanmar naval base in Hanggyi Island and has established a monitoring station at Coco Island, north of India's Andaman and Nicobar Islands. Through these ports, China is trying to fulfil two objectives – encircle India as part of its ‘string of pearls’, and gain other openings to sea.

While Bangladesh says that it is trying to establish an equal relationship between India and China, it is clearly trying to benefit by leveraging its geo-strategic position between Asia’s two rising powers. This may be a happy situation for Bangladesh and even for China. But India would not benefit in equal measure. In fact, a Chinese presence in Chittagong would present a major security concern for India.

All major powers – Russia, United States and China – consider certain areas as their backyard. Russia vociferously protested when Americans tried to increase their influence in Central Asia. Similarly, the Chinese watch closely any western move in Southeast Asia and East Asia. China is especially sensitive to any US activity in Taiwan and Taiwan straits. Similarly, few would deny that South Asia is India’s backyard. How effectively India manages to keep its influence in this region would determine its future security preparedness.

Bangladesh has been trying to extract a bargain from both India and China to its own advantage. But everything that is advantageous for Bangladesh is not necessarily so for India. The road link and port facility which Bangladesh is offering to China may reduce Chinese dependence on the Malacca Straits. But a Chinese presence in Chittagong will endanger long term Indian security interests. China is a major supplier of defence hardware for Bangladesh. In 2008, Bangladesh set up a missile launch pad near Chittagong Port with assistance from China. These developments are too serious to ignore.

Bangladesh’s decision to allow China use of the Chittagong port may pose a major security dilemma for India. It is very difficult to assess the extent to which Chinese engagement with Bangladesh is innocuous and when it would start infringing on important security interests of India. If the growth of Islamic extremism and terrorism in Bangladesh is a threat to Indian security, then the presence of powers with which India’s interests have the potential to clash is also of security concern. It is from this perspective that the recent trends in Bangladesh-China relations need to be assessed.

Chinese Puzzle in India-Bangladesh Relations | Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses

 

[Straight]

Shafik Rehman
April 7, 2010

How to make a state visit successful…without really trying

Scene 1

Place : State meeting room, Great Hall of the People, Beijing, China
Time : Midday, 18 March 2010

Characters : Prime Minister of China (PMC),
Prime Minister of Bangladesh (PMB) and
Two interpreters

PMC : Welcome to Beijing, China. We sincerely hope that after your visit to China, Bangladesh-China relationship will attain a new height.

PMB : We also hope the same.

PMC : As determined by earlier negotiations, we are meeting here today to sign three accords and one Memorandum of Understanding.

PMB : Yes. The three accords will be on, 1. economic and technical cooperation with adequate grant, 2. framework for construction of Shahjalal Fertiliser Factory and 3. construction of the seventh Bangladesh-China Friendship Bridge. And the MOU will be on Bangladesh-China cooperation in oil and gas exploration.

PMC : Excellent. You seem to be fully aware. What else do you wish to do in Beijing ?

PMB: I would like to see the Beijing Olympic games stadium.

PMC : Yes, it is a must see. It is the world’s largest steel structure built at a cost of USD 423 million. It has been named Bird’s Nest although I am not sure whether birds actually use steel to build their nests. But, even to this date China’s biggest tourist attraction is The Great Wall. You will be surprised if you knew some facts about the Great Wall.

PMB : Would you please tell me some ?

PMC : Certainly, with pleasure. The Great Wall of China is a series of stone and earthen fortifications in northern China, built, rebuilt and maintained between the 5th century BC and the 16th century, to protect the northern borders of the Chinese empire. Since the 5th century BC, several walls have been built that were referred to as the Great Wall. The majority of the existing wall was built during the Ming Dynasty. The Great Wall stretches from Shanhaiguan in the east to Lop Nur in the west, along an arc that roughly delineates the southern edge of Inner Mongolia. The most comprehensive archaeological survey, using advanced technologies, has recently concluded that the entire Great Wall, with its branches, stretches 5,530 miles. Its maximum width is 30 feet. Just imagine that, China has been protected against foreign aggression throughout centuries by the Great Wall which is 5,530 li long and 30 feet wide. (With a smiling face) The Great Wall is one of the seven wonders of the world. But, I must tell you that, although some people think that it can be seen by naked eyes from the moon. It is not true.

PMB : I have seen the wall. It is really a wonder.

PMC : On the last day of this 5-day visit, you will be going to Kunming. There you will meet the Governor of Yunan Province, Mr Qin Guagong. Although we shall be signing three accords and one MOU today, all of them will be implemented subject to fulfillment of one pre-condition.

PMB (Surprised) : Pre-condition? What is the pre-condition? My Foreign Minister Dr Dipu Moni nor the Foreign Affairs Ministry told me anything about it.

PMC : They don’t know it. Governor Qin Guagong will let you know about it. Before that, tomorrow you will be meeting our President Hu Jintao. I hope it will be a pleasant meeting.

Scene 2

Place : Empark Grand Hotel
Time : Lunch hour, 21 March 2010

Charcaters : Governor of Yunan Province Qin Guagong (QG),
Prime Minister of Bangladesh,
Two interpreters and two food-tasters

Qin Guagong : Many thanks for accepting this invitation to lunch. You know there are some Bangladeshi residents Kunming. We could have arranged Bangladeshi food for you. But we thought you would like to have Chinese food whilst in China. Hence today’s lunch menu is made of Chinese cuisine.

PMB : You have done the right thing. But, please see that all foods are halal and there are no snakes, frogs, mice and dog meat.

QG : We have taken care of that. Only halal and poison free food and drinks will be served. We have engaged two food tasters to taste each and every item before they are served to you. We are aware that you have alleged that the army backed caretaker government of Bangladesh tried to slow food poison you when you were in sub-jail. So, we have been extra-careful in serving all food and drinks to you in China.

PMB : I have to praise your far sightedness. What will be served today ?

QG : In most dishes in Chinese cuisine, food is prepared in bite-sized pieces, ready for directly picking up and eating in traditional Chinese culture. It is easy to use chop sticks. Traditional Chinese cuisine is based on opposites whereby hot balances cold, pickled balances fresh and spicy balances mild. We start with tea and finish with tea. According to the Chinese the seven necessities of life are: firewood, rice, oil, salt, soy sauce, vinegar and tea.

PMB : I didn’t know this.

QG : We have kept knife, fork and spoon on the table. You may use them. We have also kept chop sticks. Excavations from the ruins of Yin have shown that chop sticks were in use 3,200 years ago. Chinese people, even at that time, did not use fingers to eat. It proves China had been a pioneer in introducing sophisticated manners.

PMB : I shall feel comfortable with fork and knife.

QG : Let us start then.

Food and drinks began to be served at the dining table and the two food-tasters began to taste and check.

QG (Whilst eating) : What do you know about our Prime Minister Mr Wen Jiabao ?

PMB : I know he is the sixth and current Premier of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China, serving as the head of government and leading its cabinet. He also holds membership in the Politburo Standing Committee of Communist Party of China, the country’s de facto top power organ, where he is ranked third out of nine members. (Smiling) It means he is China’s most powerful person – on the one hand he is the Premier and on the other hand he is the number three member of the Standing Committee.

QG : He did not come to this position by heredity – he reached the top by his own qualifications. He is a geologist and engineer by profession and holds a post graduate degree from the Beijing Institute of Geology. Since taking office as Premier in 2003, he has been a key part of the fourth generation of the leadership in Communist Party of China.

PMB : I was simply charmed by his talks. But nearing the end of our meeting he was somewhat mysterious. He mentioned about a pre-condition, which…..

QG : I know. Of course I shall tell you about that. But, before that, tell me, do you think this state visit has been successful? Has this visit fulfilled all your expectations?

PMB : I think, this visit has been very successful. I would be absolutely certain, if I knew that pre-condition.

QG : Don’t you want to discuss about deep seaport and Chittagong-Kunming road-rail link via Myanmar? We would like to let you know that we are helping to build deep seaports in Myanmar, Sri Lanka and Pakistan. We were hoping to build one in Bangladesh.

PMB (Worried look in face) : Don’t you think India may see these four seaports as containing their country and against their interest?

QG : Of course India may think like that. If Chittagong-Kunming road-rail link is established, India may feel, Bangladesh is trying to become strategically closer with China, bypassing India. But, you have to look at the interest of your country. Our Premier had hoped that you will rise above your sentiments and you will request for our help in building a wall in your country.

PMB : Is that why he told me so much about the Great Wall of China ?

QG : Yes, indeed. We know, after your party came to power there was a mutiny in BDR in February 2009 in Dhaka. Since then, the borders of Bangladesh have been left almost defence-less. BDR members have been kept disarmed. Although, we are aware that after your return, some of them will be re-armed. But, we had thought, you would like to settle the border issue with India permanently by building a wall like ours and you would seek our assistance to do that. India is building barbed wire fences across the border. Bangladesh could have built a stone wall. It would have defended your country well and would have ended killings by BSF forces. It would have stopped smuggling. Perhaps, it would have been a tourist attraction too and earn money.

PMB : We have to think it over. India is connected with this issue. But, tell me about that pre-condition on which depends the implementation of our accords.

QG : You know that during your father’s rule, China did not give recognition to Bangladesh as an independent state. Pakistan had been China’s longstanding friend and that is why in 1971 we did not support your Liberation War. Even after Bangladesh gained independence, we did not give recognition. After the death of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, we gave recognition. When Ziaur Rahman became ruler of Bangladesh, China-Bangladesh relationship took a new turn. It was due to Ziaur Rahman’s initiative, a friendly relationship between the two countries grew up. Ziaur Rahman is dead, but, we respect him deeply.

PMB (Very annoyed) : Why are you bringing Ziaur Rahman in our talks? Is there any connection between the pre-condition and that unknown Major?

QG : Yes, there is. That is why I am talking about him. You know that, the person who shaped modern China was our great leader Deng Xiao Ping. Although his name is spelt Deng Xiao Ping, it is pronounced Deng Ziao Ping. You know our Prime Minister is Wen Jiabao. And when you will be returning to your country from Kunming, you will notice that the name of the airport is Kunming Wujiaba International Airport, which is the seventh largest airport of China. We know that you have much allergy about the name Zia. You cannot stand the name Zia and wherever you see his name, you give orders to change it. That is why our pre-condtion will be that you will not change the names of Deng Xiao Ping, Wen Jiabao, Wujiaba Airport, etc, in any accord, MOU, itinerary, programme schedule, souvenir, Jia is an indivisible part of many Chinese names and you have to keep it. That is our pre-condition.

 

[Stumper]

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