The era of unipolar world, with the US acting as the sole global super power, is fast eroding and, as a result, old alignments are crumbling to give a way for the emergence of a new multipolar world order. Some of these alignments were, in fact, artificially glued together under the geostrategic pressures to unwillingly serve the ‘supreme national interests’ of other nation-states. Ironically, under these pressures, some nation-states were divided into two halves by force – while breaking and separating families and tribes – just because that served the national interests of others. Divided Germany, Korea, Vietnam, Yamen, etc. are few examples of that unjust world order.
Turkey has served as the key member of Nato alliance probably providing the second largest force (after the US) serving under the Nato command. But Turkey, the inheritor of Ottoman Empire, has never been accepted as a true or natural ally by its European Nato partners. Westerners never get tired of delivering sermons to us all for being secular, civilized, and open minded. They apparently believe in and passionately preach for the separation of the state and church (i.e. religion shouldn’t interfere in the state policies). But that doesn’t really match with their state policies regarding their relations with Turkey. For example, Turkey was never allowed to get economically integrated with Europeans via the EU even during the height of the cold war era. More recently, the adverse actions taken by the European countries in general, and the US, France, Italy, South Cypress, etc. in particular during the Libyan crisis show the deep conflicting strategic interests of Christian-dominated European countries and Turkey.
With gradually falling US influence at the global stage and emergence of China as an assertive global player, the artificial alignments of the unipolar era are visibly feeling the pressure. The trend is more obvious in Asia and it has started appearing elsewhere too, Europe being one of them. Turkey will obviously adjust its position to the new realities.
Two clear groupings in Asia are emerging in just recent past. Different Asian countries are taking sides in a rather hasty manner. Arab monarchies (sans Qatar) are jumping one after the other into the US boat to join Israel, Japan, and Australia. India is tempted for being a part and parcel of the group of four (US, Japan, Australia, and Israel) to be hands-in-glove with the US and become a player in the Indo-Pacific region. On the other hand, Russia, Pakistan, and Iran appear to have decided getting into the Chinese camp. Turkey probably requires more time to really ponder on the pros and cons of either option before deciding its future course because it has deeper interdependencies (especially in the military sphere) with the US and European countries. Also, Turkey has reasons to look at the China-led block more favorably. For example, a significant Chinese Muslim population of Turkish descendant lives in China that has allegedly been not treated well by the Chinese government. Turkey may be able to persuade Chinese government more effectively to change their state policies towards Chinese Muslims only if the two countries have cordial relations. In addition, one of the main reasons for the Arab monarchies rushing into US led group is their (and Israeli government’s) disliking for Turkish government. How can then Turkey be a part of the same alliance where it finds more strangers and rivals rather than real allies. At the end, however, Turks may decide to be open-ended by not clearly joining either party but try to have a balance between the two poles.
It is worth pointing that the new geostrategic divide and related alignments might behave differently than what the US and USSR did during the post WW2 cold war. For one, there is no ‘iron curtain’ for exploitation by the ‘civilized and free’ world. Also, the rival groups are economically much more interdependent than ever before. And the new cold war might not be confined only to military domain but rather economics will be its dominant dimension along with technological prowess, especially in AI, cyber, space sciences and technologies, etc. that will give rise or bring down fall for either party. As before, the two leading powers (US and USSR in the past, and US and China at present) will not engage in a direct military clash against each other. Other nations will serve as their battle fields. These proxies will be punished or rewarded for their participation in the self-destructive game. A smart and visionary leadership of any country would chart a course of action for themselves and strive for securing their national interests at the minimum possible cost.
Now having a look at the gulf states herding towards the US camp, it is clear that these states are void of any real military muscle or strategic power (despite their piles of ultra-modern weapon systems purchased from elsewhere) that could make them a leading regional player. These states are severely lacking at human and natural resources needed for becoming a military power. These states cannot even stand against the first retaliatory strike, say, from Iran or Turkey. The maximum these states can do is to dance to the tunes of their stronger allies. It will be no surprise if these states start acting bigger than their real worth at the behest of their allies. After all, these states are no more than a smuggling/transiting hub. Just one threat of bringing them to the FATF would do the work. Americans and Israelis can also exploit vast number of expats living in the UAE for dirty job, destabilizing and spying on Pakistan, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, Iran, etc. or even launching terrorist attacks in these countries.
India’s dilemma is deeper than what meets the eye. With the tacit approval of the US, the Modi government – consisting of the followers of Hindu fascist terrorist group RSS – was fast advancing on the road towards a pure Hindu Akhand Bharat (greater India) just like the fascist Zionists are speeding towards the realization of Biblical Israel. Americans saw a stronger India as a lid on the Chinese pot without caring about (or actually ignoring) the Indian military’s war crimes against humanity in Indian occupied state of J&K and unilateral Indian annexation of the occupied state. However, unlike Israelis who are acting like a bull in China shop, Indians have Chinese and Russians in the neighborhood. Modi had a probably shared roadmap to annex the occupied state, attack and occupy Gilgit/Baltistan area, disrupt the CPEC route, and bring the US forces/experts at military bases in the annexed/occupied J&K. Modi illegally and unilaterally annexed the occupied state on 5 August 2019 in clear violation of related US resolutions and nullifying all bilateral treaties/agreements signed with Pakistan and China. Indian leaders then started threatening to attack Azad Kashmir along with initiating prerequisite actions for the military offense that was planned for launching later this year (just enough before the harsh winter starts in the area). However, Indian plans were pre-empted by Chinese action in Ladakh area in May 2020. Since then, Indians are continuously getting humiliations at both the military and diplomatic fronts. In the latest Moscow accord, Indians allegedly committed not to serve US interests in this region. The accord has obliterated the term LAC defined/used in different Seno-Indian agreements (e.g. 1993 and 1996). Caught with his pants down, Modi is struggling to decide on the next course of action for India. On one side, as a RSS-follower, Modi wants to create Akhand Bharat with the US help (and this is probably the last chance before the Chinese rise) by cashing on the slogan of Indian counter-weight to rising China and converting India into a regional power. On the other hand, the pressure from China and Russia and non-stop hammering and humiliation at the hands of Chinese military in Ladakh are working as a strong deterrence. On top of that, not a single world power has publically supported Modi’s unilateral annexation of occupied state of J&K and condemned China for killing Indian soldiers and occupying more 1000 sq. Km of land on the Indian side of the defunct LAC. The harsh winter is fast approaching and Modi government is exhibiting bravado but time will soon tell us all how strong India military really is.
At the end, one wonders how the Arab states evaluate and select their choices while making geostrategic decisions. For example, Indians (i.e. Hindus) will almost surely opt for American camp because they see the possibility of realization of their dream of Akhand Bharat with American/Israeli support (would American do that is another matter though). Isrealis (Zionists or terrorist Jews) are making this grand alliance for perusing their goal of establishing the Biblical Israel. What these Arabs are looking for in all that? Practically and effectively, these Arabs have abended the concept of Muslim Ummah and undone the OIC (i.e. Organization of Islamic Conference). These Arabs had utmost respect from Muslims the over and held the leading positions at that organization. Now they have willingly opted for a fall to disgrace only to be slaves of the enemies of Allah (SwT) and Islam.
This was the time of new global strategic alignments. This was the time that OIC should have gotten out of its deep slumber, bounced back as a solid voice for Muslims the world over, and given a tough bargain to all aspiring global powers and secured the prosperous future for all Muslims together. Alas, these Muslim/Arab countries turned out to be merely servants (of our enemies) rather than the leaders of the Ummah.
(These fools fell in prostration (in front of ghair-ullah) when it was really the time to stand up and stay steadfast.)
Welcome to the new (and strange) world order! A world order where the custodians of the two Holy Mosques would be joining hands with pagans and idolaters solely for the worldly gains. Welcome to a world that is full of fitnah especially for the Muslims.
