Broccoli
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Chinese ICBM Force Leveling Out?
- Thread starter Broccoli
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Genesis
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could be, or just the Chinese have got really good at hiding their inventory.
Fsjal
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That was not very nice. He is just adding some info. Anyway, I wanted to know how much ICBM China had
ChineseTiger1986
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I think 200-300 ICBMs/SLBMs is pretty fair, since some unbiased US report believes that China will have its ICBMs up to 500 by 2020.
But the 50-75 estimation still doesn't make sense.
China Testing New Nuclear Missiles: Preparing to Increase its Deployed ICBMs to 500 to Increase China?s Nuclear Intimidation Capability | Economics and Politics
Martian2
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The answer is clearly "no." Chinese thermonuclear military modernization has proceeded non-stop. Last year, China fired five ICBMs/SLBMs. That should tell you that they have a large inventory.
We are seeing Chinese ICBMs spread out all over China and an upgrade of IRBMs to ICBM nuclear forces. Richard Fisher has also reported that China has developed a new eight-to-ten MIRVed DF-5B ICBM.
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Chinese Mobile ICBMs Seen in Central China » FAS Strategic Security Blog
"Chinese Mobile ICBMs Seen in Central China
By Hans M. Kristensen
March 1, 2012
Road-mobile DF-31/31A ICBM launchers deploying to Central China are visible on new commercial satellite images.
Recent satellite images show that China is setting up launch units for its newest road-mobile Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) in central China. Several launchers of the new DF-31/31A appeared at two sites in the eastern part of the Qinghai province in June 2011. This is part of China’s slow modernization of its small (compared with Russia and the United States) nuclear arsenal.
An image taken on June 27, 2011 (see above), shows two DF-31/31A launchers on the launch pads of a small launch unit near Haiyan (36°49’37.12″N, 101° 6’22.97″E). One is positioned in a circular pad with support vehicles surrounding it. The circular pad was added to the facility sometime between 2005 and 2010. The other launcher is on a pad to the north, located next to an x-shaped launch pad and a missile garage. The layout of the Haiyan launch site is similar, yet not identical, to the DF-31 launch unit of the 813 Brigade at Nanyang.
Another image taken on June 6, 2011 (see below), shows six DF-31/31A launchers lined up on the parade ground at the 809 Brigade base in Datong about 50 kilometers (32 miles) to the east (36°56’57.67″N, 101°40’2.63″E). The brigade has been thought to be equipped with the DF-21 medium-range missile, but might be under conversion to the longer range DF-31/31A. It is unclear if the launchers are permanently based in the area or temporarily deployed from the 812 Brigade some 500 kilometers (290 miles) to the southeast.
Six mobile DF-31/31A launchers seen on display at a launch brigade in Datong, Qinghai, in central China in June 2011.
Slow Deployment
Deployment of the DF-31 has been slow since it first entered service in 2006. Less than 10 missiles had been deployed with as many launchers by 2010, and not many more were added in 2011.
The DF-31A began deployment in 2007 with about a dozen missiles on as many launchers by 2010. Also counting 20 silo-based DF-5As, the U.S. intelligence community estimates that China currently has “fewer than 50” missiles that can target the continental United States, suggesting that less that 25 DF-31As are currently deployed. (The number is a little more uncertain now after the Pentagon in 2011 started supporting Chinese nuclear secrecy by no longer providing a breakdown of Chinese missile forces in its annual report on Chinese military power).
As older missiles with shorter range are retired and replaced by the DF-31/31A over the next decade, a greater portion of the Chinese missile force will be able to target the continental United States, perhaps twice as many by 2025. But even then, the Chinese force will be small compared with that of Russia and the United States."
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It's about time the Pentagon stops publishing their ridiculous estimates of Chinese ICBMs.
Do you see these nine DF-31s (which were first shown at China's 1999 military parade)? The Pentagon claims China built less than 15 of them in total. During the 13 years since 1999, the Pentagon absurdly claims China built only six more DF-31s.
To protect their nation from American military power, the Pentagon claims China is leisurely building a new DF-31 every two years. No intelligent person believes the Pentagon propaganda. (Source of Pentagon estimate of less than 15 DF-31s: http://www.fas.org/irp/threat/missile/naic/NASIC2009.pdf)
China showed us 12 DF-31A TELs at the 2009 Chinese military parade. After finally developing the critical solid-fueled DF-31A that can strike anywhere in the continental United States, the Pentagon propaganda is that China built a total of 25 DF-31As. In the five years since being put into service in 2007, the Pentagon claims China only built one dozen more in addition to the 12 DF-31As shown in this picture. Again, not a credible estimate.
Contrary to Pentagon propaganda, the photographic evidence shows DF-31As are being deployed throughout China. This latest article (see post above) shows Chinese DF-31/DF-31As are being deployed in central China.
The Pentagon and western military experts (including Hans M. Kristensen) are shameless in claiming China's 5,000km Underground Great Wall might be a storage depot and there are no ICBMs down there. The photographic evidence in this picture clearly shows two 13,000km DF-5/DF-5A missiles, which can each carry a four to five megaton warhead.
[Note: Thank you to Kailash for the newslink.]
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China's relentless thermonuclear modernization: DF-31As replace old DF-4s
China has replaced its old liquid-fueled DF-4 IRBMs (7,000km range) with new solid-fueled DF-31A ICBMs (12,000km range).
New ICBM Brigade in Hunan? | Flashpoints
"New ICBM Brigade in Hunan?
By Mark Stokes & L.C. Russell Hsiao
October 12, 2011
An amateur photographer recently posted a video on China’s Youku website capturing a probable Dongfeng-31A (DF-31A) convoy transiting downtown Shaoyang, a prefecture-level city in Hunan Province. The video showed a single DF-31 transporter, erector, launcher (TEL) moving north accompanied by six camouflaged support vehicles and a Public Security escort.
The DF-31(A) TEL may have been on its way to a new Second Artillery brigade headquarters facility located in the far western suburbs of the city. Formerly based in Hunan’s Tongdao County, the 805 Brigade initiated construction of new facilities in Shaoyang in 2008 and completed its relocation last year. Older facilities in Tongdao County were being dismantled in 2010.
The DF-31 and DF-31A are assumed to carry only a single nuclear warhead, which don't appear to be mated with missiles during peacetime. The 55 Base’s 905 Regiment— euphemistically referred to as an Equipment Inspection Regiment—maintains the 55 Base’s inventory of ballistic missiles and a limited number of nuclear warheads in underground facilities. The 55 Base Technical Service Regiment has responsibility for transporting warheads and missile sections from 905 Regiment depot facilities to launch brigades when ordered to do so. The brigade’s technical battalion assembles missile sections and mates them with warheads in underground facilities maintained by the brigade’s site management battalion. The missile is subsequently hoisted and loaded into the brigade’s TELs, which are rolled out to pre-surveyed launch sites. The brigade’s communications battalion is tasked with ensuring the brigade commander and political commissar maintain constant communication links internally within the brigade and externally with upper echelons.
Moving toward DF-31(A)?
The 805 Brigade is said to have previously been equipped with the liquid fueled, two staged DF-4 intermediate range ballistic missile (IRBM). With a range of at least 5,500 kilometres, the DF-4 is capable of reaching targets throughout the Asia-Pacific region, including US facilities on Guam. State media reporting indicates that the 805 Brigade began planning for the conversion to a new missile system at least as early as 2007. The conversion reflects a broader trend in the shift from liquid- to solid-fueled missiles that are road/rail-mobile, and capable of being launched more rapidly. A submarine launched variant of the DF-31, the JL-2, is still being flight-tested.
Since integrating the new missile system, the 805 Brigade has implemented an aggressive training programme. In July 2010, the brigade conducted an exercise involving rapid response, mobility, and survivability. During the second week of March 2011, the brigade carried out tactical mobility training involving night time operations under communications jamming conditions. In April this year, another exercise tested the unit’s ability to counter enemy space surveillance assets. The brigade appears to have been involved in acceptance testing in 2009, which likely involved live fire exercises, and formally introduced the new missile variant into its inventory in 2010.
Chinese government publications indicate the possible establishment of a test and evaluation unit under the 54 Base, headquartered in Luoyang, Henan Province. Located within Xinyang City in southeastern Henan, the test and evaluation unit may be introducing a new missile variant into the Second Artillery Force’s operational inventory. The US Defence Department has reported in the Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2011 that China is currently developing a new road-mobile ICBM, possibly capable of carrying a multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle (MIRV).
So what does the latest sighting suggest? The presence of the DF-31(A) convoy in Shaoyang augments reporting of the 805 Brigade’s conversion to a new missile variant, and appears to confirm the retirement of the DF-4 and initial introduction of the DF-31(A) to Hunan’s 55 Base. Beyond improved survivability, replacement of the DF-4 increases the number of nuclear warheads and delivery vehicles that could be dedicated to a regional scenario, and possibly the United States, in a crisis situation.
According to the Defence Department report, the Second Artillery had approximately 10-15 DF-31 and 10-15 DF-31A missiles in the active inventory. Each brigade is presumably equipped with 12 launchers (six launch battalions, two subordinate companies each, and with each company assigned one launcher). Estimates of China’s ICBM inventory appear to be based upon the assumption of roughly one missile per launcher (or silo). The Shaoyang brigade is likely equipped along similar lines as the first two DF-31 units.
Mark Stokes is the executive director and L.C. Russell Hsiao is a senior research fellow at The Project 2049 Institute.
Image credit: Asia Eye"
We are seeing Chinese ICBMs spread out all over China and an upgrade of IRBMs to ICBM nuclear forces. Richard Fisher has also reported that China has developed a new eight-to-ten MIRVed DF-5B ICBM.
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Chinese Mobile ICBMs Seen in Central China » FAS Strategic Security Blog
"Chinese Mobile ICBMs Seen in Central China
By Hans M. Kristensen
March 1, 2012
Road-mobile DF-31/31A ICBM launchers deploying to Central China are visible on new commercial satellite images.
Recent satellite images show that China is setting up launch units for its newest road-mobile Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) in central China. Several launchers of the new DF-31/31A appeared at two sites in the eastern part of the Qinghai province in June 2011. This is part of China’s slow modernization of its small (compared with Russia and the United States) nuclear arsenal.
An image taken on June 27, 2011 (see above), shows two DF-31/31A launchers on the launch pads of a small launch unit near Haiyan (36°49’37.12″N, 101° 6’22.97″E). One is positioned in a circular pad with support vehicles surrounding it. The circular pad was added to the facility sometime between 2005 and 2010. The other launcher is on a pad to the north, located next to an x-shaped launch pad and a missile garage. The layout of the Haiyan launch site is similar, yet not identical, to the DF-31 launch unit of the 813 Brigade at Nanyang.
Another image taken on June 6, 2011 (see below), shows six DF-31/31A launchers lined up on the parade ground at the 809 Brigade base in Datong about 50 kilometers (32 miles) to the east (36°56’57.67″N, 101°40’2.63″E). The brigade has been thought to be equipped with the DF-21 medium-range missile, but might be under conversion to the longer range DF-31/31A. It is unclear if the launchers are permanently based in the area or temporarily deployed from the 812 Brigade some 500 kilometers (290 miles) to the southeast.
Six mobile DF-31/31A launchers seen on display at a launch brigade in Datong, Qinghai, in central China in June 2011.
Slow Deployment
Deployment of the DF-31 has been slow since it first entered service in 2006. Less than 10 missiles had been deployed with as many launchers by 2010, and not many more were added in 2011.
The DF-31A began deployment in 2007 with about a dozen missiles on as many launchers by 2010. Also counting 20 silo-based DF-5As, the U.S. intelligence community estimates that China currently has “fewer than 50” missiles that can target the continental United States, suggesting that less that 25 DF-31As are currently deployed. (The number is a little more uncertain now after the Pentagon in 2011 started supporting Chinese nuclear secrecy by no longer providing a breakdown of Chinese missile forces in its annual report on Chinese military power).
As older missiles with shorter range are retired and replaced by the DF-31/31A over the next decade, a greater portion of the Chinese missile force will be able to target the continental United States, perhaps twice as many by 2025. But even then, the Chinese force will be small compared with that of Russia and the United States."
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It's about time the Pentagon stops publishing their ridiculous estimates of Chinese ICBMs.
Do you see these nine DF-31s (which were first shown at China's 1999 military parade)? The Pentagon claims China built less than 15 of them in total. During the 13 years since 1999, the Pentagon absurdly claims China built only six more DF-31s.
To protect their nation from American military power, the Pentagon claims China is leisurely building a new DF-31 every two years. No intelligent person believes the Pentagon propaganda. (Source of Pentagon estimate of less than 15 DF-31s: http://www.fas.org/irp/threat/missile/naic/NASIC2009.pdf)
China showed us 12 DF-31A TELs at the 2009 Chinese military parade. After finally developing the critical solid-fueled DF-31A that can strike anywhere in the continental United States, the Pentagon propaganda is that China built a total of 25 DF-31As. In the five years since being put into service in 2007, the Pentagon claims China only built one dozen more in addition to the 12 DF-31As shown in this picture. Again, not a credible estimate.
Contrary to Pentagon propaganda, the photographic evidence shows DF-31As are being deployed throughout China. This latest article (see post above) shows Chinese DF-31/DF-31As are being deployed in central China.
The Pentagon and western military experts (including Hans M. Kristensen) are shameless in claiming China's 5,000km Underground Great Wall might be a storage depot and there are no ICBMs down there. The photographic evidence in this picture clearly shows two 13,000km DF-5/DF-5A missiles, which can each carry a four to five megaton warhead.
[Note: Thank you to Kailash for the newslink.]
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China's relentless thermonuclear modernization: DF-31As replace old DF-4s
China has replaced its old liquid-fueled DF-4 IRBMs (7,000km range) with new solid-fueled DF-31A ICBMs (12,000km range).
New ICBM Brigade in Hunan? | Flashpoints
"New ICBM Brigade in Hunan?
By Mark Stokes & L.C. Russell Hsiao
October 12, 2011
An amateur photographer recently posted a video on China’s Youku website capturing a probable Dongfeng-31A (DF-31A) convoy transiting downtown Shaoyang, a prefecture-level city in Hunan Province. The video showed a single DF-31 transporter, erector, launcher (TEL) moving north accompanied by six camouflaged support vehicles and a Public Security escort.
The DF-31(A) TEL may have been on its way to a new Second Artillery brigade headquarters facility located in the far western suburbs of the city. Formerly based in Hunan’s Tongdao County, the 805 Brigade initiated construction of new facilities in Shaoyang in 2008 and completed its relocation last year. Older facilities in Tongdao County were being dismantled in 2010.
The DF-31 and DF-31A are assumed to carry only a single nuclear warhead, which don't appear to be mated with missiles during peacetime. The 55 Base’s 905 Regiment— euphemistically referred to as an Equipment Inspection Regiment—maintains the 55 Base’s inventory of ballistic missiles and a limited number of nuclear warheads in underground facilities. The 55 Base Technical Service Regiment has responsibility for transporting warheads and missile sections from 905 Regiment depot facilities to launch brigades when ordered to do so. The brigade’s technical battalion assembles missile sections and mates them with warheads in underground facilities maintained by the brigade’s site management battalion. The missile is subsequently hoisted and loaded into the brigade’s TELs, which are rolled out to pre-surveyed launch sites. The brigade’s communications battalion is tasked with ensuring the brigade commander and political commissar maintain constant communication links internally within the brigade and externally with upper echelons.
Moving toward DF-31(A)?
The 805 Brigade is said to have previously been equipped with the liquid fueled, two staged DF-4 intermediate range ballistic missile (IRBM). With a range of at least 5,500 kilometres, the DF-4 is capable of reaching targets throughout the Asia-Pacific region, including US facilities on Guam. State media reporting indicates that the 805 Brigade began planning for the conversion to a new missile system at least as early as 2007. The conversion reflects a broader trend in the shift from liquid- to solid-fueled missiles that are road/rail-mobile, and capable of being launched more rapidly. A submarine launched variant of the DF-31, the JL-2, is still being flight-tested.
Since integrating the new missile system, the 805 Brigade has implemented an aggressive training programme. In July 2010, the brigade conducted an exercise involving rapid response, mobility, and survivability. During the second week of March 2011, the brigade carried out tactical mobility training involving night time operations under communications jamming conditions. In April this year, another exercise tested the unit’s ability to counter enemy space surveillance assets. The brigade appears to have been involved in acceptance testing in 2009, which likely involved live fire exercises, and formally introduced the new missile variant into its inventory in 2010.
Chinese government publications indicate the possible establishment of a test and evaluation unit under the 54 Base, headquartered in Luoyang, Henan Province. Located within Xinyang City in southeastern Henan, the test and evaluation unit may be introducing a new missile variant into the Second Artillery Force’s operational inventory. The US Defence Department has reported in the Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2011 that China is currently developing a new road-mobile ICBM, possibly capable of carrying a multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle (MIRV).
So what does the latest sighting suggest? The presence of the DF-31(A) convoy in Shaoyang augments reporting of the 805 Brigade’s conversion to a new missile variant, and appears to confirm the retirement of the DF-4 and initial introduction of the DF-31(A) to Hunan’s 55 Base. Beyond improved survivability, replacement of the DF-4 increases the number of nuclear warheads and delivery vehicles that could be dedicated to a regional scenario, and possibly the United States, in a crisis situation.
According to the Defence Department report, the Second Artillery had approximately 10-15 DF-31 and 10-15 DF-31A missiles in the active inventory. Each brigade is presumably equipped with 12 launchers (six launch battalions, two subordinate companies each, and with each company assigned one launcher). Estimates of China’s ICBM inventory appear to be based upon the assumption of roughly one missile per launcher (or silo). The Shaoyang brigade is likely equipped along similar lines as the first two DF-31 units.
Mark Stokes is the executive director and L.C. Russell Hsiao is a senior research fellow at The Project 2049 Institute.
Image credit: Asia Eye"
ChineseTiger1986
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According to General Yin Zhuo, the Type 094 boats must be patrolling with the JL-2 SLBMs, because your SLBM cannot be comparable to the most advanced US SLBM when it has not even entered into service. 
Fsjal
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According to General Yin Zhuo, the Type 094 boats must be patrolling with the JL-2 SLBMs, because your SLBM cannot be comparable to the most advanced US SLBM when it has not even entered into service.
How come JL-2 is not advance, even though it is based on DF-31. Is it the electronics or its use of liquid fuel on one of its stage????
ChineseTiger1986
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JL-2 is based on DF-31A, and it is almost identical, both are 3 stages solid fuel ICBM.
Fsjal
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But isn't the JL-2 two stage?
ChineseTiger1986
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The information is incorrect, JL-2's mass is near 60 tons and has three stages solid fuel.
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Richard Fisher says Pentagon estimate of China's ICBMs is "unbelievable" and clearly wrong
Richard Fisher is a widely acknowledged expert on Chinese military affairs. He has stated and explained that the Pentagon estimate of Chinese thermonuclear-armed ICBMs is "unbelievable" [or not credible] for the past calendar year.
I fully agree with Richard Fisher's reasoning and I think any reasonable person would say the Pentagon's unchanging estimate of Chinese ICBMs is propaganda. This raises an obvious question.
The Pentagon estimate of Chinese thermonuclear forces hasn't changed much in thirty years. However, during the last thirty years, we saw the development and deployment of DF-5A, DF-5B, DF-31, DF-31A, DF-41, and JL-2.
The next logical Chinese ICBM/SLBM is a navalized version of the DF-41, which will most likely be named JL-3. Given all of these new Chinese ICBM/SLBM weapon systems, the Pentagon estimate of Chinese ICBMs looks like it's been wrong for thirty years.
The Pentagon does not want the world to know that Chinese thermonuclear ICBM forces are moving towards parity with the United States. However, that is no excuse for the Pentagon to blatantly and falsely claim that Chinese thermonuclear ICBM forces have remained unchanged for 30 years.
Richard Fisher thinks the Pentagon has turned into the propaganda department. I think most people would agree.
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http://www.strategycenter.net/docLib/20121125_FisherLessisNotEnough112512.pdf
Nuclear Anxieties and the Pivot
...
If one were simply to believe the Pentagon China report’s numbers, from 2011 to 2012 there has been no change in the number of China’s nuclear and non-nuclear ballistic missiles. However, a statement of no-growth in PLA missile numbers over a calendar year is unbelievable given the fact that the PLA is producing two to three types of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs: DF-5B (?); DF-31A; DF-41, two types medium range ballistic missiles (MRBM: DF-16, DF-21C/D), developing a new intermediate range ballistic missile (IRBM: DF-25/26 (?)),[41] producing two families of long-range cruise missiles (CJ-10, CJ-10K, YJ-63), two families of short range ballistic missiles (SRBM: DF-15A/B/C, DF-11Mod2), and a new submarine launched ballistic missile (SLBM: JL-2).
From late July 2012 through September 2012 the PLA Second Artillery conducted a series of exercises, demonstrations and tests of perhaps all of its missile types. This included a 24 July test of the new large mobile DF-41, expected to soon be be tested with a multiple warhead bus, a 16 August test of a new JL-2 submarine launched ballistic missile, a 21 August test of a silo-based DF-5 ICBM, a 30 August test of a road-mobile DF-31A ICBM and then the testing of multiple short-range ballistic missiles on the eve of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s 4 September 2012 visit to Beijing.[42] Unfortunately the U.S. did not issue any public comments on these PLA missile tests, but simply leaked information about them to veteran reporter Bill Gertz.
Perhaps one of the most important indicators of rapid warhead growth would be deployment of multiple nuclear warheads on their newer missiles. The 2008 China report offered clear language warning of this interest:
Despite the fact that imagery of what may be the DF-41 large mobile ICBM has been available from Chinese sources since 2007, it was not until the 2011 China Report possibly alluded to this missile, “China may also be developing a new road-mobile ICBM, possibly capable of carrying a multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle (MIRV).”[43] Asian military sources have estimated the DF-41 missile may be capable of carrying 8 to 10 warheads. So for a single brigade unit of 12 missiles this could mean an addition of 96 to 120 warheads for the PLA.
The 2012 China Report does mention an “enhanced silo-based DF-5,” that could be a reference to the “DF-5B,” which in 2010 an Asian military source told the author was a new MIRV version of the DF-5. This missile may also be capable of lofting 8 to 10 warheads. A large, detailed order of battle for the PLA that was posted on Chinese web pages in early 2012 indicates that there may already be two brigades, or up to 24 deployed DF-5B missiles.[44] While many parts of this document cannot be confirmed, it is at least indicative of the speed at which China could increase its nuclear warhead numbers at a time when the Administration may be considering U.S. warhead reductions to below 1,000.
An additional disappointment of 2012 China Report is that it fails to follow up its mention of 2011of the vast “Underground Great Wall” of potentially thousands of kilometers of tunnels that could be concealing a far larger number of nuclear weapons and missiles. The 2011 China Report made special mention of this tunnel network:
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Known Chinese ICBM tests during 2012
I hope Richard Fisher doesn't have an aneurysm over China's ICBM tests. He seems pretty upset at the rapid advancement in Chinese thermonuclear forces. Here's a chronology of the Chinese ICBM tests for 2012.
July 24, 2012: DF-41 ICBM test (10-MIRVed)
This is the first known unclassified DF-41 test. I have read that China has conducted ground tests on the DF-41 engines for years and there may have been previously unreported DF-41 flight tests. However, the July 24th DF-41 test is the first widely-known flight test.
August 16, 2012: JL-2 SLBM test (3-MIRVed)
This could be a routine JL-2 SLBM test along the lines of U.S. Trident tests. Or China could be testing the JL-2 MIRV capability. There's no way of knowing until the Pentagon stops being so secretive about Chinese ICBM and SLBM tests.
August 21, 2012: DF-5B silo-based ICBM test (10-MIRVed)
This looks like a test of an upgraded DF-5A ICBM that is capable of carrying 8 to 10 MIRVs (see Richard Fisher citation above).
August 30, 2012: DF-31A ICBM test (3-MIRVed)
The DF-31A was deployed in 2007. This looks like a routine test with a single megaton warhead.
November 30, 2012: DF-31A ICBM test (3-MIRVed)
Why the second DF-31A flight test in three months? Was this a MIRVed test?
The PLA seems to have an awful lot of DF-31A ICBMs to expend on testing. It makes us suspect that the PLA Second Artillery arsenal is quite large and they're just firing off ICBMs and SLBMs like they have a lot of them.
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China conducts mobile ICBM test days ahead of expected North Korean launch | Washington Free Beacon
"China conducts mobile ICBM test days ahead of expected North Korean launch
BY: Bill Gertz
December 4, 2012 5:00 am
DF-31A
China last week carried out a second flight test of a new long-range mobile missile that is capable of hitting United States cities with a nuclear warhead. The test took place days before North Korea is set to fire its long-range missile, according to U.S. intelligence officials.
U.S. intelligence airborne and space sensors detected the flight test Friday of the road-mobile DF-31A missile as it lifted off from the Wuzhai Space and Missile Test Center. The missile flew west to an impact range in western China.
It was the second DF-31A flight test since August and highlights China’s growing strategic nuclear buildup, a modernization program largely carried out in secret.
The DF-31A test also took place on the last day of a rare U.S.-China military exercise in Chengdu that practiced joint disaster relief efforts.
China is known to use its missile tests to send political signals, as in 1996 when it bracketed Taiwan with missile flight tests that impacted north and south of the island prior to a presidential election.
Analysts say the DF-31A test likely was intended to bolster the Chinese military’s hardline stance toward the United States and particularly the U.S. military, regarded by Beijing as its main adversary.
The most recent DF-31 flight test occurred Aug. 30, also from Wuzhai, located in Shanxi province about 267 miles southwest of Beijing. That missile test involved a single warhead simulation.
However, on July 24 China conducted the first flight test of a newer road-mobile ICBM called the DF-41, which is assessed to be China’s first intercontinental ballistic missile to be equipped with multiple, independently-targetable warheads, or MIRVs.
The DF-31A was first deployed around 2007 and is believed to be capable of carrying up to five warheads. Its maximum range is up to 5,000 miles. There are some indications that the missile also may be deployed on rail cars disguised as passenger trains.
A Pentagon spokeswoman declined to comment on the missile launch, citing a policy of not discussing intelligence matters.
“We monitor carefully China’s military developments and urge China to exhibit greater transparency regarding its capabilities and intentions,” the spokeswoman told the Free Beacon.
A Defense Department spokesman said in August in response to the last DF-31A test that the Pentagon “continues to carefully monitor China’s military modernization efforts, including progress in developing its offensive missile force.”
The United States is meanwhile seeking to cut both its missile and nuclear forces under President Barack Obama’s goal of seeking to eliminate nuclear weapons.
Obama said in a speech Monday at the National Defense University, “We’re moving closer to the future that we seek, a future where these weapons never threaten our children again, a future where we know the security and peace of a world without nuclear weapons.”
Richard Fisher, a China military affairs specialist, said the Obama administration should make more information available to the public on China’s strategic nuclear modernization program. Doing so would avoid “a potential nuclear surprise” and make sure “more pressure is placed on China to become transparent in this area.”
“From underground bases and launch pads near Qinghai, China, the DF-31A may have sufficient range to reach U.S. ICBM bases in North Dakota,” Fisher said in an email.
The DF-31A development “suggests that China may be building toward a ‘counterstrike’ strategy that would require the secret buildup of many more missiles and warheads than suggested by public ICBM number estimates made available by the U.S. Intelligence Community,” he said.
Fisher said China may be stockpiling large numbers of “reload” missiles for the mobile DF-31A launchers in its large-scale underground nuclear system, estimated to include 3,000 miles of tunnels.
Additionally, the Chinese government’s constant statements that its nuclear forces are limited to retaliation from a nuclear attack requiring only a small number of missiles are a deception.
“Continuously repeating a consistent message of deception while doing the complete opposite reflects a far older Chinese strategic culture,” Fisher said.
Meanwhile, U.S. officials said a North Korean Taepodong-2 missile is in the final stages of preparation for a test flight that is expected to further raise tensions in the region.
The Taepodong-2 is being readied at a launch facility in North Korea and is being closely watched. U.S. officials said the launch could take place as early as Dec. 10. The last Taepodong-2 launch in April failed shortly after launch.
Georgetown University arms control specialist Phillip A. Karber said the most recent Chinese missile test highlight’s Beijing’s growing strategic arsenal.
“The Chinese commitment to modernizing the full array of their ballistic missile arsenal, from tactical to theater to strategic systems, is evidence of their national commitment to what they call the next revolution in military affairs,” Karber said.
“It is ironic that at a time that they believe they’re riding the wave of the future, the United States has greatly reduced our ability to take advantage of ballistic missiles for our security.”
Karber said the DF-31A is significant because it can strike cities in the continental United States with nuclear weapons.
The two-day U.S.-China military exercise involved U.S. and Chinese officers meeting at a Chinese military barracks in the central Chinese city of Chengdu and discussing how the two militaries would respond to an earthquake in a fictional third country, Associated Press reported Friday from Chengdu.
“I think it’s very conceivable. If there is a country out there, and there inevitably there will be, that will have a natural disaster, and they call for international help, if U.S. forces and Chinese forces respond, then indeed we’ll find ourselves working together in the field,” U.S. Maj. Gen. Stephen Lyons told reporters."
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Alert 5 » China confirms testing of multi-warhead DF-31A - Military Aviation News
"China confirms testing of multi-warhead DF-31A
The PLA Daily published on Dec. 10 carried an article that confirms testing of a new ICBM. The Washington Beacon reported on Dec. 4 that U.S. intelligence detected the launch of a road-mobile DF-31A missile on Nov. 30."
Richard Fisher is a widely acknowledged expert on Chinese military affairs. He has stated and explained that the Pentagon estimate of Chinese thermonuclear-armed ICBMs is "unbelievable" [or not credible] for the past calendar year.
I fully agree with Richard Fisher's reasoning and I think any reasonable person would say the Pentagon's unchanging estimate of Chinese ICBMs is propaganda. This raises an obvious question.
The Pentagon estimate of Chinese thermonuclear forces hasn't changed much in thirty years. However, during the last thirty years, we saw the development and deployment of DF-5A, DF-5B, DF-31, DF-31A, DF-41, and JL-2.
The next logical Chinese ICBM/SLBM is a navalized version of the DF-41, which will most likely be named JL-3. Given all of these new Chinese ICBM/SLBM weapon systems, the Pentagon estimate of Chinese ICBMs looks like it's been wrong for thirty years.
The Pentagon does not want the world to know that Chinese thermonuclear ICBM forces are moving towards parity with the United States. However, that is no excuse for the Pentagon to blatantly and falsely claim that Chinese thermonuclear ICBM forces have remained unchanged for 30 years.
Richard Fisher thinks the Pentagon has turned into the propaganda department. I think most people would agree.
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http://www.strategycenter.net/docLib/20121125_FisherLessisNotEnough112512.pdf
Nuclear Anxieties and the Pivot
...
If one were simply to believe the Pentagon China report’s numbers, from 2011 to 2012 there has been no change in the number of China’s nuclear and non-nuclear ballistic missiles. However, a statement of no-growth in PLA missile numbers over a calendar year is unbelievable given the fact that the PLA is producing two to three types of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs: DF-5B (?); DF-31A; DF-41, two types medium range ballistic missiles (MRBM: DF-16, DF-21C/D), developing a new intermediate range ballistic missile (IRBM: DF-25/26 (?)),[41] producing two families of long-range cruise missiles (CJ-10, CJ-10K, YJ-63), two families of short range ballistic missiles (SRBM: DF-15A/B/C, DF-11Mod2), and a new submarine launched ballistic missile (SLBM: JL-2).
From late July 2012 through September 2012 the PLA Second Artillery conducted a series of exercises, demonstrations and tests of perhaps all of its missile types. This included a 24 July test of the new large mobile DF-41, expected to soon be be tested with a multiple warhead bus, a 16 August test of a new JL-2 submarine launched ballistic missile, a 21 August test of a silo-based DF-5 ICBM, a 30 August test of a road-mobile DF-31A ICBM and then the testing of multiple short-range ballistic missiles on the eve of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s 4 September 2012 visit to Beijing.[42] Unfortunately the U.S. did not issue any public comments on these PLA missile tests, but simply leaked information about them to veteran reporter Bill Gertz.
Perhaps one of the most important indicators of rapid warhead growth would be deployment of multiple nuclear warheads on their newer missiles. The 2008 China report offered clear language warning of this interest:
Despite the fact that imagery of what may be the DF-41 large mobile ICBM has been available from Chinese sources since 2007, it was not until the 2011 China Report possibly alluded to this missile, “China may also be developing a new road-mobile ICBM, possibly capable of carrying a multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle (MIRV).”[43] Asian military sources have estimated the DF-41 missile may be capable of carrying 8 to 10 warheads. So for a single brigade unit of 12 missiles this could mean an addition of 96 to 120 warheads for the PLA.
The 2012 China Report does mention an “enhanced silo-based DF-5,” that could be a reference to the “DF-5B,” which in 2010 an Asian military source told the author was a new MIRV version of the DF-5. This missile may also be capable of lofting 8 to 10 warheads. A large, detailed order of battle for the PLA that was posted on Chinese web pages in early 2012 indicates that there may already be two brigades, or up to 24 deployed DF-5B missiles.[44] While many parts of this document cannot be confirmed, it is at least indicative of the speed at which China could increase its nuclear warhead numbers at a time when the Administration may be considering U.S. warhead reductions to below 1,000.
An additional disappointment of 2012 China Report is that it fails to follow up its mention of 2011of the vast “Underground Great Wall” of potentially thousands of kilometers of tunnels that could be concealing a far larger number of nuclear weapons and missiles. The 2011 China Report made special mention of this tunnel network:
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Known Chinese ICBM tests during 2012
I hope Richard Fisher doesn't have an aneurysm over China's ICBM tests. He seems pretty upset at the rapid advancement in Chinese thermonuclear forces. Here's a chronology of the Chinese ICBM tests for 2012.
July 24, 2012: DF-41 ICBM test (10-MIRVed)
This is the first known unclassified DF-41 test. I have read that China has conducted ground tests on the DF-41 engines for years and there may have been previously unreported DF-41 flight tests. However, the July 24th DF-41 test is the first widely-known flight test.
August 16, 2012: JL-2 SLBM test (3-MIRVed)
This could be a routine JL-2 SLBM test along the lines of U.S. Trident tests. Or China could be testing the JL-2 MIRV capability. There's no way of knowing until the Pentagon stops being so secretive about Chinese ICBM and SLBM tests.
August 21, 2012: DF-5B silo-based ICBM test (10-MIRVed)
This looks like a test of an upgraded DF-5A ICBM that is capable of carrying 8 to 10 MIRVs (see Richard Fisher citation above).
August 30, 2012: DF-31A ICBM test (3-MIRVed)
The DF-31A was deployed in 2007. This looks like a routine test with a single megaton warhead.
November 30, 2012: DF-31A ICBM test (3-MIRVed)
Why the second DF-31A flight test in three months? Was this a MIRVed test?
The PLA seems to have an awful lot of DF-31A ICBMs to expend on testing. It makes us suspect that the PLA Second Artillery arsenal is quite large and they're just firing off ICBMs and SLBMs like they have a lot of them.
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China conducts mobile ICBM test days ahead of expected North Korean launch | Washington Free Beacon
"China conducts mobile ICBM test days ahead of expected North Korean launch
BY: Bill Gertz
December 4, 2012 5:00 am
DF-31A
China last week carried out a second flight test of a new long-range mobile missile that is capable of hitting United States cities with a nuclear warhead. The test took place days before North Korea is set to fire its long-range missile, according to U.S. intelligence officials.
U.S. intelligence airborne and space sensors detected the flight test Friday of the road-mobile DF-31A missile as it lifted off from the Wuzhai Space and Missile Test Center. The missile flew west to an impact range in western China.
It was the second DF-31A flight test since August and highlights China’s growing strategic nuclear buildup, a modernization program largely carried out in secret.
The DF-31A test also took place on the last day of a rare U.S.-China military exercise in Chengdu that practiced joint disaster relief efforts.
China is known to use its missile tests to send political signals, as in 1996 when it bracketed Taiwan with missile flight tests that impacted north and south of the island prior to a presidential election.
Analysts say the DF-31A test likely was intended to bolster the Chinese military’s hardline stance toward the United States and particularly the U.S. military, regarded by Beijing as its main adversary.
The most recent DF-31 flight test occurred Aug. 30, also from Wuzhai, located in Shanxi province about 267 miles southwest of Beijing. That missile test involved a single warhead simulation.
However, on July 24 China conducted the first flight test of a newer road-mobile ICBM called the DF-41, which is assessed to be China’s first intercontinental ballistic missile to be equipped with multiple, independently-targetable warheads, or MIRVs.
The DF-31A was first deployed around 2007 and is believed to be capable of carrying up to five warheads. Its maximum range is up to 5,000 miles. There are some indications that the missile also may be deployed on rail cars disguised as passenger trains.
A Pentagon spokeswoman declined to comment on the missile launch, citing a policy of not discussing intelligence matters.
“We monitor carefully China’s military developments and urge China to exhibit greater transparency regarding its capabilities and intentions,” the spokeswoman told the Free Beacon.
A Defense Department spokesman said in August in response to the last DF-31A test that the Pentagon “continues to carefully monitor China’s military modernization efforts, including progress in developing its offensive missile force.”
The United States is meanwhile seeking to cut both its missile and nuclear forces under President Barack Obama’s goal of seeking to eliminate nuclear weapons.
Obama said in a speech Monday at the National Defense University, “We’re moving closer to the future that we seek, a future where these weapons never threaten our children again, a future where we know the security and peace of a world without nuclear weapons.”
Richard Fisher, a China military affairs specialist, said the Obama administration should make more information available to the public on China’s strategic nuclear modernization program. Doing so would avoid “a potential nuclear surprise” and make sure “more pressure is placed on China to become transparent in this area.”
“From underground bases and launch pads near Qinghai, China, the DF-31A may have sufficient range to reach U.S. ICBM bases in North Dakota,” Fisher said in an email.
The DF-31A development “suggests that China may be building toward a ‘counterstrike’ strategy that would require the secret buildup of many more missiles and warheads than suggested by public ICBM number estimates made available by the U.S. Intelligence Community,” he said.
Fisher said China may be stockpiling large numbers of “reload” missiles for the mobile DF-31A launchers in its large-scale underground nuclear system, estimated to include 3,000 miles of tunnels.
Additionally, the Chinese government’s constant statements that its nuclear forces are limited to retaliation from a nuclear attack requiring only a small number of missiles are a deception.
“Continuously repeating a consistent message of deception while doing the complete opposite reflects a far older Chinese strategic culture,” Fisher said.
Meanwhile, U.S. officials said a North Korean Taepodong-2 missile is in the final stages of preparation for a test flight that is expected to further raise tensions in the region.
The Taepodong-2 is being readied at a launch facility in North Korea and is being closely watched. U.S. officials said the launch could take place as early as Dec. 10. The last Taepodong-2 launch in April failed shortly after launch.
Georgetown University arms control specialist Phillip A. Karber said the most recent Chinese missile test highlight’s Beijing’s growing strategic arsenal.
“The Chinese commitment to modernizing the full array of their ballistic missile arsenal, from tactical to theater to strategic systems, is evidence of their national commitment to what they call the next revolution in military affairs,” Karber said.
“It is ironic that at a time that they believe they’re riding the wave of the future, the United States has greatly reduced our ability to take advantage of ballistic missiles for our security.”
Karber said the DF-31A is significant because it can strike cities in the continental United States with nuclear weapons.
The two-day U.S.-China military exercise involved U.S. and Chinese officers meeting at a Chinese military barracks in the central Chinese city of Chengdu and discussing how the two militaries would respond to an earthquake in a fictional third country, Associated Press reported Friday from Chengdu.
“I think it’s very conceivable. If there is a country out there, and there inevitably there will be, that will have a natural disaster, and they call for international help, if U.S. forces and Chinese forces respond, then indeed we’ll find ourselves working together in the field,” U.S. Maj. Gen. Stephen Lyons told reporters."
----------
Alert 5 » China confirms testing of multi-warhead DF-31A - Military Aviation News
"China confirms testing of multi-warhead DF-31A
The PLA Daily published on Dec. 10 carried an article that confirms testing of a new ICBM. The Washington Beacon reported on Dec. 4 that U.S. intelligence detected the launch of a road-mobile DF-31A missile on Nov. 30."
ChineseTiger1986
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Yeah, JL-2 is now in the routine tests after the deployment just like the Trident II.
And JL-2 is close to 60 tons, thus it can have more than just 3 MIRVed warheads.
And JL-2 is close to 60 tons, thus it can have more than just 3 MIRVed warheads.
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Jane's Defense claims Chinese JL-2 SLBM can carry 3 to 8 MIRVs
JL-2 (CSS-NX-5) | Missile Threat CSS-NX-4 | Missile Threat
The JL-2 (CSS-NX-5, or CSS-NX-4) is an intercontinental-range, submarine-launched, three-stage solid propellant ballistic missile under development in the People’s Republic of China (PRC). It is believed to have been developed along with the DF-23 land-based missile, which was later re-designated the DF-31 (CSS-9) after changes in project requirements. The JL-2 is reported to be similar to the DF-31 and it is considered possible for the two missiles to be nearly identical. The JL-2 is designed to launch from the Type 094 submarine, and will eventually replace the aging JL-1 (CSS-N-3) missiles currently in operation aboard a single Xia-class Type 092 missile submarine.[SUP]1[/SUP]
The JL-2 has a minimum range of 2,000 km, a maximum range greater than 7,200 km, and carries a payload of 1,050 to 2,800 kg. This payload can be equipped with either a single 1 MT yield nuclear warhead or between 3 and 8 MIRV warheads. The MIRV warheads probably weigh between 250 and 300 kg and can be set to a nuclear yield of 20, 90 or 150 kT. The missile will likely be capable of being equipped with penetration aids and decoys to decrease the effectiveness of missile defense systems. The JL-2 uses an inertial guidance system with stellar updates and a Global Positioning Satellite (GPS) system. It may employ the Bei Dou navigational satellite system. An accuracy of 300 m CEP has been suggested, but other reports suggest 150 m CEP, which seems to better reflect current guidance technology.[SUP]2[/SUP]
The JL-2 is believed to have entered the initial design stage in 1970 along with a land-based DF-23, but both were redesigned in 1985 following a change in program requirements. The change probably occurred to take into account advancements in PRC warhead miniaturization technology. The JL-2 was supposed to be operational by 2008, but this date has passed without reports indicating its status.
The JL-2 was initially installed on the Golf-class Tpye 031 submarine for testing. The first test launch occurred in 2002, and subsequent launches were reported in 2003, 2004 and 2005. Unconfirmed reports suggest that numerous launches occurred from 2008 to 2011, but it is assumed that the JL-2 is still under development.[SUP]3[/SUP]
1. Lennox, Duncan. “CSS-NX-5 (JL-2) (Sabbot).” Jane’s Strategic Weapon Systems (Offensive Weapons). September 30, 2012. (accessed September 12, 2012). ↩
2. Ibid. ↩
3. Ibid. ↩
[Note: Jane's Strategic Weapon Systems is the primary source.]
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ChineseTiger1986
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The launch weight of 42 tons is probably a bit off.
But the payload of 2800kg is correct, it can reach a range of 8000km with that payload.
But the payload of 2800kg is correct, it can reach a range of 8000km with that payload.
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