Chinese economy to overtake US 'by 2028' due to Covid - BBC NEWS

[Muji.Iqbal]

Chinese economy to overtake US 'by 2028' due to Covid​

• • Published
    

• • 26 December 2020

Image source, Getty Images
Image caption,
China is the only major global economy that will have expanded in 2020
China will overtake the US to become the world's largest economy by 2028, five years earlier than previously forecast, a report says.
The UK-based Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) said China's "skilful" management of Covid-19 would boost its relative growth compared to the US and Europe in coming years.
Meanwhile India is tipped to become the third largest economy by 2030.
The CEBR releases its economic league table every year on 26 December.
Although China was the first country hit by Covid-19, it controlled the disease through swift and extremely strict action, meaning it did not need to repeat economically paralysing lockdowns as European countries have done.
As a result, unlike other major economies, it has avoided an economic recession in 2020 and is in fact estimated to see growth of 2% this year.

• 'China is a hard rock. It won't be beaten by virus'
• Millions of Americans face jobless benefits lapse

The US economy, by contrast, has been hit hard by the world's worst coronavirus epidemic in terms of sheer numbers. More than 330,000 people have died in the US and there have been some 18.5 million confirmed cases.
The economic damage has been cushioned by monetary policy and a huge fiscal stimulus, but political disagreements over a new stimulus package could leave around 14 million Americans without unemployment benefit payments in the new year.

"For some time, an overarching theme of global economics has been the economic and soft power struggle between the United States and China," says the CEBR report. "The Covid-19 pandemic and corresponding economic fallout have certainly tipped this rivalry in China's favour."

Media caption,
How US and China's break-up could affect the world
The report says that after "a strong post-pandemic rebound in 2021", the US economy will grow by about 1.9% annually from 2022-24 and then slow to 1.6% in the years after that.
By contrast the Chinese economy is tipped to grow by 5.7% annually until 2025, and 4.5% annually from 2026-2030.
China's share of the world economy has risen from just 3.6% in 2000 to 17.8% now and the country will become a "high-income economy" by 2023, the report says.

The Chinese economy is not only benefitting from having controlled Covid-19 early, but also aggressive policymaking targeting industries like advanced manufacturing, said CEBR deputy chairman Douglas McWilliams.
"They seem to be trying to have centralised control at one level, but quite a free market economy in other areas," he told the BBC. "And it's the free market bit that's helping them move forward particularly in areas like tech."
But the average Chinese person will remain far poorer in financial terms than the average American even after China becomes the world's biggest economy, given that China's population is four times bigger.

In other predictions:​

• The post-Brexit UK economy will grow by 4% annually from 2021-25 and 1.8% annually from 2026-30 (after shrinking in 2020)
• India had overtaken the UK as the fifth-biggest economy in 2019 but has slipped behind it again due to the pandemic's impact. It won't take over again until 2024, the CEBR says
• India's economy will go on to overtake Germany in 2027 and Japan in 2030

Chinese economy to overtake US 'by 2028' due to Covid

A UK-based think tank says the pandemic has caused economic momentum to shift further in favour of Asia.

www.bbc.com

 

[K_Bin_W]

They will cross paths in 2028 which is sooner then I thought..

Meanwhile

https://www.tiktok.com/video/7238955504171502855

 

[F-22Raptor]

Chinese economy to overtake US 'by 2028' due to Covid​

• • Published
• • 26 December 2020

Image source, Getty Images
Image caption,
China is the only major global economy that will have expanded in 2020
China will overtake the US to become the world's largest economy by 2028, five years earlier than previously forecast, a report says.
The UK-based Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) said China's "skilful" management of Covid-19 would boost its relative growth compared to the US and Europe in coming years.
Meanwhile India is tipped to become the third largest economy by 2030.
The CEBR releases its economic league table every year on 26 December.
Although China was the first country hit by Covid-19, it controlled the disease through swift and extremely strict action, meaning it did not need to repeat economically paralysing lockdowns as European countries have done.
As a result, unlike other major economies, it has avoided an economic recession in 2020 and is in fact estimated to see growth of 2% this year.

• 'China is a hard rock. It won't be beaten by virus'
• Millions of Americans face jobless benefits lapse

The US economy, by contrast, has been hit hard by the world's worst coronavirus epidemic in terms of sheer numbers. More than 330,000 people have died in the US and there have been some 18.5 million confirmed cases.
The economic damage has been cushioned by monetary policy and a huge fiscal stimulus, but political disagreements over a new stimulus package could leave around 14 million Americans without unemployment benefit payments in the new year.

"For some time, an overarching theme of global economics has been the economic and soft power struggle between the United States and China," says the CEBR report. "The Covid-19 pandemic and corresponding economic fallout have certainly tipped this rivalry in China's favour."

Media caption,
How US and China's break-up could affect the world
The report says that after "a strong post-pandemic rebound in 2021", the US economy will grow by about 1.9% annually from 2022-24 and then slow to 1.6% in the years after that.
By contrast the Chinese economy is tipped to grow by 5.7% annually until 2025, and 4.5% annually from 2026-2030.
China's share of the world economy has risen from just 3.6% in 2000 to 17.8% now and the country will become a "high-income economy" by 2023, the report says.

The Chinese economy is not only benefitting from having controlled Covid-19 early, but also aggressive policymaking targeting industries like advanced manufacturing, said CEBR deputy chairman Douglas McWilliams.
"They seem to be trying to have centralised control at one level, but quite a free market economy in other areas," he told the BBC. "And it's the free market bit that's helping them move forward particularly in areas like tech."
But the average Chinese person will remain far poorer in financial terms than the average American even after China becomes the world's biggest economy, given that China's population is four times bigger.

In other predictions:​

• The post-Brexit UK economy will grow by 4% annually from 2021-25 and 1.8% annually from 2026-30 (after shrinking in 2020)
• India had overtaken the UK as the fifth-biggest economy in 2019 but has slipped behind it again due to the pandemic's impact. It won't take over again until 2024, the CEBR says
• India's economy will go on to overtake Germany in 2027 and Japan in 2030

Chinese economy to overtake US 'by 2028' due to Covid

A UK-based think tank says the pandemic has caused economic momentum to shift further in favour of Asia.

www.bbc.com

This is a projection from 2020 and has changed significantly since then. I expect Chinas growth to decelerate to 2-3% by the early 2030s. I doubt there will be a significant difference in US and Chinese growth which calls into question if China will ever surpass US GDP.

 

[CIA Mole]

This is a projection from 2020 and has changed significantly since then. I expect Chinas growth to decelerate to 2-3% by the early 2030s. I doubt there will be a significant difference in US and Chinese growth which calls into question if China will ever surpass US GDP.

almost certain to not surpass US with the commie terrorist in the room

 

[Muji.Iqbal]

This is a projection from 2020 and has changed significantly since then. I expect Chinas growth to decelerate to 2-3% by the early 2030s. I doubt there will be a significant difference in US and Chinese growth which calls into question if China will ever surpass US GDP.

​

China will become the global economy's biggest growth driver in the next 5 years, doubling the US contribution, IMF says​

669

Phil Rosen
April 17, 2023·2 min read

Chinese President Xi Jinping.Jason Lee/Reuters

• The IMF said China will be the largest driver of global economic growth in the next five years.
• China will contribute 22.6% of total world growth, while the US will contribute 11.3%.
• Half of global growth will be concentrated in China, the US, India, and Indonesia.

China will become the biggest driver of global growth over the next five years and will contribute double what the US adds, according to the International Monetary Fund.
Based on Bloomberg calculations from data in the IMF's World Economic Outlook released last week, China's slice of global gross domestic product expansion will be at 22.6%, India's will be 12.9%, and the US will add 11.3%.
They are followed by Indonesia, Germany, Turkey, and Japan, each with a less than 3.6% contribution.
Three-quarters of global growth will stem from 20 countries, and over 50% will come from just China, India, the US, and Indonesia.
The IMF expects growth contributions from Brazil, Russia, India, and China to outpace Group of Seven nations.
Overall, the IMF anticipates global growth to expand about 3% over the next five years in a higher-interest-rate environment. It's the weakest outlook in over 30 years.
The group's report highlighted that recent bank turmoil and sticky inflation have heightened recession risks. March brought the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature, in addition to trouble with Silvergate, Credit Suisse, and other names.
"Risks to the outlook are squarely to the downside," the IMF said. "Much uncertainty clouds the short- and medium-term outlook as the global economy adjusts to the shocks of 2020–22 and the recent financial sector turmoil. Recession concerns have gained prominence, while worries about stubbornly high inflation persist."
Read the original article on Business Insider

China will become the global economy's biggest growth driver in the next 5 years, doubling the US contribution, IMF says

Brazil, Russia, India, and China together are expected to contribute nearly 40% of the world's growth through 2028, the group said.

finance.yahoo.com

 

[Bilal9]

This is a projection from 2020 and has changed significantly since then. I expect Chinas growth to decelerate to 2-3% by the early 2030s. I doubt there will be a significant difference in US and Chinese growth which calls into question if China will ever surpass US GDP.

Cows don't fall down dead on vulture wishes...

More to the point is - given this eventuality, what is the US administration doing about this?

What happened to the old saw "If you can't beat 'em then join 'em." ??