Chinese Economy 'to Hit $123 Trillion' in 2040

[Cisco-GUY]

We are missing shchinese. Hope he comes back.

I am missing Im_bud_bud. I hope he comes back in your presence.

 

[Sravan]

now when grey boy starts hitting you back & gives you a taste of your medicine then it may hurt

anyways forget it

I am not saying only chinese guys do trolling but you seem to negate only when indians do it anyways back to topic

i dont think china or even US can achieve that size of economy in 2040

 

[Hulk]

now when grey boy starts hitting you back & gives you a taste of your medicine then it may hurt

anyways forget it

EMO,
While I am against all trolls, we have been lenient towards Chinese and I think it is because of them insulting Indians which is music to some people. I have seen lot of threads grey boy 2 posting a troll as very first thread. There is no count of thread where he brought the poverty issue without context.

IMO we should not tolerate any troll but should not be selective in pointing only Indians.

 

[Communist]

EMO,
While I am against all trolls, we have been lenient towards Chinese and I think it is because of them insulting Indians which is music to some people. I have seen lot of threads grey boy 2 posting a troll as very first thread. There is no count of thread where he brought the poverty issue without context.

IMO we should not tolerate any troll but should not be selective in pointing only Indians.

Naming a respectable senior member and calling him a troll is against the forum rules. I do not understand why mods are not doing anything.

BTW, Post reported.

 

[Hulk]

Naming a respectable senior member and calling him a troll is against the forum rules. I do not understand why mods are not doing anything.

BTW, Post reported.

When discussing issue of trolling how can you do it without naming people when people ask for evidence.

 

[Communist]

Get ready for GreyBoy and his toilet crisis

Naming a respectable senior member and calling him troll is against the forum rules.

Post reported.

 

[Communist]

ONE example? if atleast 90% of greyboy 22 or communist posts are not trolls( i mean starting flaming ) i will quit this forum now

Naming members and calling them trolls is against the forum rules.

Post reported.

 

[scuthan]

Japan had a higher GDP per capita than US did in 1980s but that of china is less than 4000USD still today. In that sense, we china still great potential in economy growth. The most radical urbanization movement in human's history will continue in the next two decades, which means atleast 200 millions chinese farmers will leave their coutryside home to the city. which will translate into enormous market demands.

However, we need to understand that no mountain has no peak. Many coastal cities' GDP per capita has already exceeded 10,000USD, such as Shenzhen, Shanghai, and a dozen of small cities in Jiangsu and Guangdong Province, which spells they are in the same level with Taiwan and South Korea. China made 26 billion pieces of clothes and 140 million of sets of computers in 2008. we got to realize that the potential for the export growth would be very limited as the international demand is not boundless. Considering the impact of finacial crisis, international market demand will continue to slump. the end of two digits growth of export-oriented economy is predictable in the near future unless increasing number of high-tech companies emerge like ZTE and Huawei.

On the other hand, a comparable size of economy as US spells that China's GDP per capita is almost as high as taiwan. Unless China would by no means achieve that level of development unless the China economy growth primarily relies on domestic demands.the difficulty of that would be higher than it did with export in the past. Although our life have changed alot in the past 30 yrs, it is still not enough to achieve what we wish. Fortunately, we saw china's domestic demands increased steadily despite the financial crsisi. 2009 saw the symbolic achievement that china overtook America as the largest automobile consumption market in thr world with the number of 12 million, which is almost 10 times as high as india's if i am not mistaken. Still, the pace of china's economy growth will slow down and fall behind that of some emerging economies like Vietnam and India. i think it's pointless to argue whether china would become the largest economy. it would be more sensible for us if talk about china's economy model and its potential change

 

[desiman]

123 trillion - not happening no matter what country it is. China is a exception. The US will remain the dominant power economically in the world for atleast 100 more years. That’s the fact learn to accept it.

 

[gogbot]

Naming members and calling them trolls is against the forum rules.

Post reported.

Good job get all Indians banned then you can argue with your self in peace

 

[arya-hind]

slowdown in china so how Chinese Economy 'to Hit $123 Trillion' in 2040

dream nothing else

 

[scuthan]

So you never know in future there can be other countries eating into China's business and posing challenge.

China's model is about cheap labor available in abundance in a decently stable country with good environment to invest (friendly policies). So if other countries try they can replicate the same.

Even if Pakistan start focusing on business and get the country stable can eat some business from China. I am serious.

you said "china's model is about cheap labor available in abundance". your statement is right prior to 2000. it also applies to Korea in 1980s and Japan in 1960s. There are many other factors determine where the people to invest- softwares and hardwares. Hardwares include infrastructure, transportation, supporting industrial chain, labor cost, land rent, etc. Softwares include the consistency of policies, the efficiency of government, law efforcement, availability of educated labor, local market demand. They put together constitute the core completitiveness of china.

China's pearl river delta is the largest industrial belt in the world. if the machines you are making need a certain type of component, there might be 10 factories in your city providing that at a reasonable price and they will be due in several days. if Apple give the design print of its electric gadget to FOXCONN in Shenzhen, FOXCONN will purchase all the needed compents from providers in guangdong province and make them in several days, transport them by the highway network to shenzhen port or Hongkong. Two weeks later, they will lie in the sheelf of wallmart in North America.

the labor cost of Vietnam, India, Indonesia is around 1/3 of china. but if they make the same product, the cost will be even high. besides China has a large local market, in 2009 china sold 12 million automobiles which exceeded America's number. Vietnam doesnot have a comparable size of market. India does have a comparable size of population but its people are not as rich as chinese.

As a matter of fact, china' export economy today does not heavily rely on labour-entensive section so much as it did in the past. it is kinda like the situation with Korea and Japna. In 1996, Garment and Textile account for 60% of china's export. In 2006, it plummeted to 9% while machinery and electronic products rised to 58%. Of course, some of our business will be transfered to some other coutries even if our salary stay where it were in the future, but china can afford it.

 

[karan.1970]

why US coudn't achieve that, US also cudn't do many things which China did. US developed over a time of 200yrs and China came to rival it in 20yrs and within next 30yrs is going to surpass it so a total of 50yrs only!!

US keeps itself on top by destroying those who try to rise and China is coming on top because its working on developing itself.

The One who plays to defeat others, loses to the One who plays to Win.

another strong thing China has going for it is the strong roots. Its a centuries old civilization that has endured many storms. US is just going thru its first..

 

[Hulk]

you said "china's model is about cheap labor available in abundance". your statement is right prior to 2000. it also applies to Korea in 1980s and Japan in 1960s. There are many other factors determine where the people to invest- softwares and hardwares. Hardwares include infrastructure, transportation, supporting industrial chain, labor cost, land rent, etc. Softwares include the consistency of policies, the efficiency of government, law efforcement, availability of educated labor, local market demand. They put together constitute the core completitiveness of china.

China's pearl river delta is the largest industrial belt in the world. if the machines you are making need a certain type of component, there might be 10 factories in your city providing that at a reasonable price and they will be due in several days. if Apple give the design print of its electric gadget to FOXCONN in Shenzhen, FOXCONN will purchase all the needed compents from providers in guangdong province and make them in several days, transport them by the highway network to shenzhen port or Hongkong. Two weeks later, they will lie in the sheelf of wallmart in North America.

the labor cost of Vietnam, India, Indonesia is around 1/3 of china. but if they make the same product, the cost will be even high. besides China has a large local market, in 2009 china sold 12 million automobiles which exceeded America's number. Vietnam doesnot have a comparable size of market. India does have a comparable size of population but its people are not as rich as chinese.

As a matter of fact, china' export economy today does not heavily rely on labour-entensive section so much as it did in the past. it is kinda like the situation with Korea and Japna. In 1996, Garment and Textile account for 60% of china's export. In 2006, it plummeted to 9% while machinery and electronic products rised to 58%. Of course, some of our business will be transfered to some other coutries even if our salary stay where it were in the future, but china can afford it.

thx for your post. It is good that someone responded without flaming.
I agree to some of your points that you have created large industry base which helps everything getting done faster, that definitely is an advantage.

I however wants to ask you how before this industrial base started, how did China got their business. Was it not the case that you get order then you establish one industry and later you keep growing.

At one point in time USA also had large number of Industries how did they vanish.

So that same thing other countries can do. Not in 1 day but in years, one by one.

Now other stuff not really economics but general thing, everyone in this world wants to survive and if China grabs a very big share of the world, what will others do? They will find some means to counter this situation. Hence IMO China is now grown too big, its others turn, they will figure it out.

India is doing it, so is Russia and Brazil and if Pakistan focuses more on economy and understand having a war like situation is not in their interest, they can be a very good economy. It is sad that they have not exploited their access to central Asia, the way they should had, they are driven by ego and not economics.

 

[Roby]

We are missing shchinese. Hope he comes back.

But when he comes back, you go underground...wonder why?