China’s Trilemma

[Chinese-Dragon]

If I can summarize your post, China wants to displace the US to satisfy its own ego. Got it.

That's his opinion, not our official policy.

Our official policy is to "Never seek hegemony" (永远不称霸). We don't want to replace America as the global hegemon, our goal (both officially and unofficially) is to create a multi-polar world.

And even if we wanted to become the global hegemon, realistically that is no longer possible. Unless America suddenly decides to become isolationist again, along with Russia and the EU.

 

[LeveragedBuyout]

America's goal is to maintain their global hegemony. Their hegemony is in all domains, in economic, military and diplomatic.

Now, let's just take one domain for example. Let's say economic.

Check the IMF voting rights. China has less voting rights in the IMF than even France! Whereas the US has more than the other main players combined. Despite China being the largest trading power in the world, and the largest creditor nation in the world, we have less say in the IMF than France, Germany, Britain, etc. And America has more than all of those combined.

Now, another topic, the US dollar. The US dollar being the world's reserve currency (and the currency in which oil is priced) gives America what many have referred to as the "exorbitant privilege":

Exorbitant privilege - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Why do you think America can print so much money all the time? With zero percent interest rates, and yet they are launching how many rounds of quantitative easing?

The reason is because the USD is the world's reserve currency, by using quantitative easing (money printing) they can push inflation into the developing world, and borrow money at absurdly low rates.

Obviously, the money that is printed does not come out of thin air. It comes out of our pockets, China/Japan and everyone else who holds USD as reserves (basically everyone). By printing money, they are devaluing the dollar, and thus devaluing our reserves, it is essentially a stealth tax on us.


One main goal that China has, is to change the world's reserve currency from the USD to a more equitable "basket of currencies". This removes America's exorbitant privilege, and makes it easier for us to compete on the global stage, and prevent our reserves being willfully devalued and stealth taxed by QE.

Does this benefit America? No, in fact it will have massive costs on America, who will find their cost of borrowing soaring, at a time when they already have such a massive borrowing problem. Along with countless other problems that come from losing the reserve status of the USD, most of which will have a negative effect on American economic competitiveness.

America gains a lot from their global hegemony, not just in economic terms (as mentioned above), but in all areas, including military and diplomatic. If China becomes a developed country in the next few decades, that will put severe pressure on the American global hegemony, and remove some of the exorbitant privileges that they receive from currently being the world hegemon/leader.

Bear in mind that we have zero designs on becoming a world hegemon ourselves, even if that were possible (it's not), I believe the era of superpowers and global hegemons is over, or will be within the next few decades. Thus, a multi-polar world is better for us, a world in which America does not have this exorbitant privilege, is a world in which we are (relatively) stronger and more competitive.

Apologies for the long post, usually I am not so long-winded.

Very informative, and I agree with you both for the IMF and the reserve currency. That said, it's not a pure benefit for China to increase its voting rights with the IMF--you may have noticed, but virtually every country assisted by the IMF hates the IMF, and blamed the US and Europe for forcing such harsh policies on them. China will be blamed as well, once IMF reform goes through. Welcome to the club!

Your point about the reserve currency is also correct, but also not a pure benefit to China once the US reserve currency is displaced. China's currency will appreciate, which will hurt exports. It will also help Chinese purchasing power, but there are trade-offs. At the same time, the US dollar will devaluate even further, helping our exports, but reducing our purchasing power. In addition, the US has its own natural resources, like China, so the oil shock will not be as large as you might hope for.

That said, is it fair to characterize China as more motivated by damaging the US than gaining real benefits for itself?

That's his opinion, not our official policy.

Our official policy is to "Never seek hegemony" (永远不称霸). We don't want to replace America as the global hegemon, our goal (both officially and unofficially) is to create a multi-polar world.

I understand. We've argued this before, so I won't belabor the point. I believe a multi-polar world is a less stable world, so China's drive to create a multi-polar world will not be so beneficial to China. That said, I can understand China's desire to contain the US.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

I understand. We've argued this before, so I won't belabor the point. I believe a multi-polar world is a less stable world, so China's drive to create a multi-polar world will not be so beneficial to China. That said, I can understand China's desire to contain the US.

That's your opinion, and I respect it.

The truth is that we are in unknown territory, there is no guarantee that a multi-polar world would be a better one for the modern world. Just that it would be better for us compared to the current one.

The current world is pretty messed up anyway, and the future world will probably be just as bad. Not much to do about that.

That said, is it fair to characterize China as more motivated by damaging the US than gaining real benefits for itself?

I do not believe that to be true.

Chinese nationalists like myself oppose American policy because we see an American-led world order as being unfriendly to us, check the recent statements by the US defence secretary for an example.

This is not "hatred" against America, if Canada was in the position that America is currently in, we would oppose them too.

The only country we really hate on a personal level is Japan, due to historical war crimes. And even then, I do not hate the modern Japanese people, I do not blame them for the crimes of their ancestors. But like America, they do not necessarily benefit from a vast increase in Chinese power, thus like America they are our strategic rivals.

China's policy is not American-based, the only reason America is so important is precisely because it is the world hegemon, and aligned against China in Asia.

Chinese policy is purely Chinese based, on our need for economic development, on our wish to return to the status we once had in history, of being a great power in a multi-polar world. We have the largest population in the world, surely this is not an unfair dream.

 

[LeveragedBuyout]

That's your opinion, and I respect it.

The truth is that we are in unknown territory, there is no guarantee that a multi-polar world would be a better one for the modern world. Just that it would be better for us compared to the current one.

The current world is pretty messed up anyway, and the future world will probably be just as bad. Not much to do about that.



I do not believe that to be true.

Chinese nationalists like myself oppose American policy because we see an American-led world order as being unfriendly to us, check the recent statements by the US defence secretary for an example.

This is not "hatred" against America, if Canada was in the position that America is currently in, we would oppose them too.

The only country we really hate on a personal level is Japan, due to historical war crimes. And even then, I do not hate the modern Japanese people, I do not blame them for the crimes of their ancestors. But like America, they do not necessarily benefit from a vast increase in Chinese power, thus like America they are our strategic rivals.

China's policy is not American-based, the only reason America is so important is precisely because it is the world hegemon, and aligned against China in Asia.

Chinese policy is purely Chinese based, on our need for economic development, on our wish to return to the status we once had in history, of being a great power in a multi-polar world. We have the largest population in the world, surely this is not an unfair dream.

@Chinese-Dragon, it's always a pleasure discussing these issues with you. I've come away from this with a far greater understanding of China's (and Chinese) thinking, and I a deeply appreciative that we can discuss contentious issues in a calm and reasonable manner. If I could give you a positive rating, I would, but in the meantime, please accept my thanks.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

@Chinese-Dragon, it's always a pleasure discussing these issues with you. I've come away from this with a far greater understanding of China's (and Chinese) thinking, and I a deeply appreciative that we can discuss contentious issues in a calm and reasonable manner. If I could give you a positive rating, I would, but in the meantime, please accept my thanks.

No problem buddy.

To further expand on my point above, when people hate their enemies more than they care about themselves, you end up with a situation like that in the Middle East, where people hate their "enemy" so much that they are willing to strap on a suicide vest and blow themselves up.

That will never happen with us. What we have is not "hatred", but rational self-interest.

I see plenty of American and Japanese tourists in Hong Kong, never once have I thought that they were my enemy or that I should attack them for whatever reason. In fact, I am always the first person to help these tourists with directions, since my English is decent.

I do not believe the tensions between America and China are due to hatred, both sides want to preserve their own rational self-interest, and that is a fairly safe scenario to be in, since neither side will want a war with the other. The only real danger is miscalculation, and that kind of thing can be solved quickly with existing mechanisms.

 

[Genesis]

If I can summarize your post, China wants to displace the US to satisfy its own ego. Got it.

What did you think stand in the way means? But if you want more "evil" deeds, US is planning TTP and some Euro trade union to make WTO useless and China not part of it.

But so far it is a fail, apparently Abe won't harm Japan to appease the Americans. Whether this actually harms anyone I don't know, but apparently some Japanese, Koreans and more thinks so.


But all in all, US wants to contain China for the same reason, so let's not pretend one of us is a saint. We are all looking for power, so it is what it is.

With your senators and presidents making claims to being the greatest, and the only country that can maintain order and should be in everybody's business, we are a shade better, no?

 

[amitkriit]

America's goal is to maintain their global hegemony. Their hegemony is in all domains, in economic, military and diplomatic.

Now, let's just take one domain for example. Let's say economic.

Check the IMF voting rights. China has less voting rights in the IMF than even France! Whereas the US has more than the other main players combined. Despite China being the largest trading power in the world, and the largest creditor nation in the world, we have less say in the IMF than France, Germany, Britain, etc. And America has more than all of those combined.

Now, another topic, the US dollar. The US dollar being the world's reserve currency (and the currency in which oil is priced) gives America what many have referred to as the "exorbitant privilege":

Exorbitant privilege - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Why do you think America can print so much money all the time? With zero percent interest rates, and yet they are launching how many rounds of quantitative easing?

The reason is because the USD is the world's reserve currency, by using quantitative easing (money printing) they can push inflation into the developing world, and borrow money at absurdly low rates.

Obviously, the money that is printed does not come out of thin air. It comes out of our pockets, China/Japan and everyone else who holds USD as reserves (basically everyone). By printing money, they are devaluing the dollar, and thus devaluing our reserves, it is essentially a stealth tax on us.

------------------------

One main goal that China has, is to change the world's reserve currency from the USD to a more equitable "basket of currencies". This removes America's exorbitant privilege, and makes it easier for us to compete on the global stage, and prevent our reserves being willfully devalued and stealth taxed by QE.

Does this benefit America? No, in fact it will have massive costs on America, who will find their cost of borrowing soaring, at a time when they already have such a massive borrowing problem. Along with countless other problems that come from losing the reserve status of the USD, most of which will have a negative effect on American economic competitiveness.

America gains a lot from their global hegemony, not just in economic terms (as mentioned above), but in all areas, including military and diplomatic. If China becomes a developed country in the next few decades, that will put severe pressure on the American global hegemony, and remove some of the exorbitant privileges that they receive from currently being the world hegemon/leader.

Bear in mind that we have zero designs on becoming a world hegemon ourselves, even if that were possible (it's not), I believe the era of superpowers and global hegemons is over, or will be within the next few decades. Thus, a multi-polar world is better for us, a world in which America does not have an exorbitant privilege, which comes at the expense of our own competitiveness.

Apologies for the long post, usually I am not so long-winded.

I have high hopes from the BRICS summit. Two immediate priorities:
A. Reduce our dependency on the US Dollar
B. Isolate the growing economies from the impacts of the one-sided "Economic Sanctions".

 

[TaiShang]

Our general understanding of the world situation:

Point one: The US has never been a benign power. It has always been a ruthless power with, in the beginning, an amazingly rational and realist foreign policy -- until it has been held hostage by more idealist and conservative reactionary forces. Obama is one of the worst reactionaries which, probably, in terms of US interests, has harmed the country more than Bush Jr. did.

Point two: China is not an ideological country; it is damn rational and pragmatic. If Mr. Xi did act like a lunatic throwing accusations here and there (like some banana presidents such as the one in Turkey now) the US would find China less dangerous. US likes leaders that mobilize their public behind heated rhetoric. Mr. Ahmedinejad served to the US interests possibly more than Mr. Netenyahu does. Why the US really (as a government) is 100% anti-China is because of China's rationality and pragmatism. For this reason, we will never be real friends. In fact, we do not need to be.

Point three: China does not want to claim any arbitrary title other than being respected as a sovereign and be let alone in its own domestic affairs. But, China's economic and political development by itself is destabilizing if you consider historical dialectic as destabilizing. China by just being China is a threat to the US since as China grows organically, it puts certain pressure on the status quo. And every challenge to the status quo, even though it comes naturally, is destabilizing.

Point four: Chinese do not hate the US people. They criticize the government, but, we do not, generally, hold any racist or ideological view of the US population. But we are also realistic that the US, despite of its well-oiled PR machine, is an inherently anti-China force. We are not stupid to ignore all the US military presence. We are politically and economically on par with the US to some degree, but, militarily, which is the only tooth that the US can really use to bite China, we feel no friendship coming from the Pacific. We will not take US bases that surround us and the US treaties that aim us as a sign of friendship. We are Marxist-educated; we are very well versed about false-consciousness. We will not mistake others' self interests for our own.

Point five: Nonetheless, we do not feel to be victimized. What we have achieved is the fruit of our own endeavors. What we will achieve will be of our own making, as well. We do not feel more thankful to the US for the world as it is, just as we do not hate them for the world as we live today. We take it as it is, and work within its confines, recontextualizing it as our needs require. Hence our shift from the USD, our growing national power, competitive national companies, our race to the space. These are not designed to be anti-US, but they are inherently anti-US.

Point six; We have always felt that China is an idea as well as a phenomenon. Being and becoming. China keeps changing on daily basis, which keeps us agile, while the idea remains unchanged. That what makes us a nation so successful although we are nowhere near to our manifest destiny.

 

[Genesis]

That's his opinion, not our official policy.

Our official policy is to "Never seek hegemony" (永远不称霸). We don't want to replace America as the global hegemon, our goal (both officially and unofficially) is to create a multi-polar world.

And even if we wanted to become the global hegemon, realistically that is no longer possible. Unless America suddenly decides to become isolationist again, along with Russia and the EU.

well without going too much into detail, I do mean only in Asia, the America today can only be that because the rest of the world is asleep, but seeing as how when we rise, America is already there, the sole Hegemony is not that likely.


But just for your reference, if you were to look at history and know anything about the mindset of the Chinese people, you would know the 永远不称霸 is a lie. Somebody that doesn't have this desire won't even need to say it. Hence India never said it.

One of the more famous of this is Liu Bang, he said it, to Xiang Yu, well, some years later, he didn't become hegemon, he killed him and took the title emperor. Deng only said it because at the time we were weak, he did the same as Liu, he hid, waited, and built, if someone doesn't have the desire to be great, well, I can refer you to, our neighbor to the West.