China's Submarine Lead In Asia Could Grow By 2030

[beijingwalker]

China's Submarine Lead In Asia Could Grow By 2030
Aerospace & Defense
Mar 3, 2020,07:50am EST

Submarines are the hot asset among Asian countries right now, with ~239 in service with the region’s navies. Almost every navy is acquiring new types. If we look ahead 10 years the submarine landscape in the region will be very different. And by 2030 China could have more than twice as many as any other other Asian country.

The total number of submarines will likely drop to around 220. More on why later. But this headline drop in numbers hides the greater trend which is one of expansion and modernization of submarine forces.

China has the largest submarine fleet in the world. I project a small increase from ~75 to 79 boats. Within this expect new classes of ballistic missile submarines, attack submarines and conventional submarines. There is also a small but growing fleet of ‘oddball’ types, including the enigmatic ‘sailless’ design.

India is renewing its fleet and also adding new nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines. These put it in an elite club among world navies. In overall capability terms it is ahead of all other navies in Asia except China. Also before 2030, it’s just possible that the first indigenous nuclear-powered attack submarine could be in the water. The new SSBNs increase the count by 4 hulls, while other new submarines will likely replace existing boats on a 1:1 basis.

South Korea has a strong navy including a sizable fleet of conventional submarines. The first of 9 indigenous Dosan Ahn Changho class submarine was launched in 2018. This will likely increase overall submarine strength by 2030, overtaking Japan. These are the first conventional submarine in the world with a vertical launch system (VLS) for cruise missiles.

Japan has a reputation for building cutting-edge conventional submarines. They are going into a period without new construction, however, while the next-generation 29SS design is finalized. It is just possible that one might be in the water before the end of the decade.

Pakistan is increasing it’s fleet with 8 Chinese designed Type-039B submarines. Indonesia also plans to increase its fleet by 5 boats although this seems far from certain. But there is a possibility that a small indigenous submarine might be built. Another country which plans a massive force increase is Australia, from 6 to 12 submarines. But the first of the new Attack Class boats won’t be delivered until the 2030s so don’t count in this forecast.

Myanmar and Thailand are both likely to increase their small submarine fleets by a single hull each. These tiny numbers are a big deal to the navies involved and are part of a wider trend for small navies to acquire submarines.

It’s not all increases. Vietnam will likely drop one hull as North Korean midget submarines are retired, replaced by a single locally designed boat.

So back to the overall numbers, why will the total number of submarines drop from 239 to 220? The answer is North Korea. Currently the hermit kingdom operates a massive fleet of submarines, around 71 boats. But most of these are small ‘midget submarines’ and the larger ones are very dated. Many will not make it to the end of this decade. I project a drop of around 50%, which is driving the overall numbers down. Of note, several more ballistic missile submarines will likely be in service. These will most likely be conversions of older boats.

But while the overall number of submarines in Asian navies will drop by about 20, the real trend is modernization and expansion.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/hisutt...marine-forces-forecast-for-2030/#6703546f1548

 

[Raphael]

China has the largest submarine fleet in the world. I project a small increase from ~75 to 79 boats. Within this expect new classes of ballistic missile submarines, attack submarines and conventional submarines. There is also a small but growing fleet of ‘oddball’ types, including the enigmatic ‘sailless’ design.

No chance China's submarine fleet could grow only by 4 subs during this decade to 2030, unless the author is talking about total numbers and taking into account decommissioning older models. When Type 09V and 09VI prototypes have finished testing and trials (~2025 by late estimates), China will be cranking out 1-2 subs a year for each.

 

[beijingwalker]

No chance China's submarine fleet could grow only by 4 subs during this decade to 2030, unless the author is talking about total numbers and taking into account decommissioning older models.

Yes, many old ones will be decommissioned.


China's Navy Could Have 76 Submarines by 2030: Report
The Chinese navy’s submarine force isn’t getting much bigger. But it is getting a whole lot better.

by David Axe
April 30, 2020

The Chinese navy’s submarine force isn’t getting much bigger. But it is getting a whole lot better. That’s the conclusion of the U.S. Congressional Research Service’s latest report on Chinese military power.


“China has been steadily modernizing its submarine force, and most of its submarines are now built to relatively modern Chinese and Russian designs,” the CRS stated in the April 2020 edition of its China report.


But in terms of hull numbers, the overall undersea force actually isn’t growing very quickly. The Chinese sub fleet could grow from 66 boats in 2020 to 76 in 2030, the CRS estimated, citing figures from the U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence.

Changes in the mix of vessels, however, could boost the capability of the force. The Chinese undersea fleet in 2020 includes four nuclear-powered ballistic-missile “boomer” submarines, seven nuclear-powered attack submarines, and 55 diesel-electric attack submarines.

Based on recent production trends, the 2030 force could include eight ballistic-missile boats, 13 nuclear attack boats and the same number of diesel boats: 55.


Adding boomers obviously expands China’s nuclear deterrent. For conventional warfare, the doubling of the nuclear attack submarine forces is more significant. SSNs, as they’re known in U.S. Navy parlance, can sail farther and remain on station longer than can smaller diesel-electric SSK boats.

And while the Chinese SSK force is likely to remain the same size over the coming decade, it probably will boast more of the most modern types. The Chinese navy in 2020 operates around 34 of the latest Type 039 SSKs. As additional SSKs enter the fleet, they’re supplanting obsolete Type 035 boats that basically are copies of Soviet Romeo-class boats dating from the early 1960s.

“Qualitatively, China’s newest submarines might not be as capable as Russia’s newest submarines,” the CRS explained, “but compared to China’s earlier submarines, which were built to antiquated designs, its newer submarines are much more capable.”

Contrast the modernization and slow growth of the Chinese submarine fleet with the modernization and contraction of the American undersea fleet. Beijing is commissioning more subs than it decommissions. Washington is commissioning fewer subs than its decommissions.

American submarines still are more sophisticated than Chinese subs are. But the American boats increasingly are outnumbered.

The U.S. fleet in 2020 possesses 56 Los Angeles-, Seawolf- and Virginia-class attack submarines and Ohio-class cruise-missile submarines plus 14 Ohio-class boomers. Under the latest planning, that number would drop to a low of 42 attack boats and 13 boomers in 2028 before expanding back to current levels sometime in the 2030s.


It could get worse. The administration of Pres. Donald Trump in its 2021 budget submission asked for just one new Virginia instead of the two the Navy expected, meaning the American SSN force actually could bottom out at just 41 boats at around the same time that the Chinese SSN force reaches a new peak of 68 boats.

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/chinas-navy-could-have-76-submarines-2030-report-149431

 

[Suika]

The graph is also incorrect about Japanese submarines.

As of now, there are 11 Oyahsio subs constructed and commissioned. 2 of which are used as training submarines. 12 Soryu subs have been built in which 11 have been commissioned. The 12th one will be commissioned next year. The 11th and 12th are also LiB only. So that makes a total of 23. Japan's defense outline policy lays out that maintaining of 22 (24 if including training subs) combat submarines, up from the policy of 16 some years ago. The successor to the Soryu sub has entered production with the first one as an experimental sub. So, should be 22 combat subs, 2 trainers, and 1 experimental, total of 25 subs by 2030.