China's population is projected to decline to 800 million, while US goes to 450 million.

[Bussard Ramjet]

Five key trends in world textile and apparel trade | Apparel Industry Analysis | just-style

@TaiShang @AndrewJin @cirr @cnleio

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

Among the resources a nation has, human resource is the most important by far. The aggregate impact of it, which includes both quality and quantity.

Across history, it has always been the country with the largest human resources who won.

It was a one time historical divergence where technology and the limited access to it, widened the gap. But today, in a globalized world, everyone has access.

That is the reason why developing countries are catching up. The developed countries are basically static, and the only ones growing are the ones that are inviting in high quality immigration.

 

[anon45]

By 2065 Whites will be a minority in the Us. Blacks,Latinos and other mixed races will take over their country.Bush was probably the last white president.

Erm, no.

the US is based on ideals, not race.

Also you clearly don't follow US elections, not that I blame you as you are in India.

 

[TheTruth]

Five key trends in world textile and apparel trade | Apparel Industry Analysis | just-style

@TaiShang @AndrewJin @cirr @cnleio

lol trends extrapolated 50 years into the future

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

lol trends extrapolated 50 years into the future

Population trends are far more robust, because they have fewer variables, which are statistically much accurate to measure.

Also, I think generally one would expect this to happen, when US has a natural fertility rate just above 2.1, meanwhile also inviting many immigrants in.

While, in China it is a norm to have either 1 or 2 children.

 

[xunzi]

800 is a perfect number of population for us. Leaner and meaner.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

800 is a perfect number of population for us. Leaner and meaner.

That is the total population. The labor force will be even less. Also, it will continue to decline because once fertility rates drop below replacement, it is very hard to raise them up again.

Finally, as I said earlier, historically wealth has been largely proportional to population size, and would be so going forward.

 

[Yizhi]

i hate to say it but @Bussard Ramjet how many demography threads you've started so far? 20? 50?

can't you keep it all in one thread instead of posting a few seperately every week?

 

[Edison Chen]

This is ridiculous, can't be possible. Many say China's population will reach the peak in the future of about 1.6 billion, and then remain stable for a decades. Even if it is projected to decline, there cannot be a sudden drop to 800 million.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

i hate to say it but @Bussard Ramjet how many demography threads you've started so far? 20? 50?

can't you keep it all in one thread instead of posting a few seperately every week?

I would, but within few posts every thread gets derailed. If a moderator can help me have a sticked thread, then I can do it.

Also, I only start thread when something new comes up. Many people here start multiple threads for even the same thing. In just the last week I have seen at least 4 threads on Chinese near space airship.

This is ridiculous, can't be possible. Many say China's population will reach the peak in the future of about 1.6 billion, and then remain stable for a decades. Even if it is projected to decline, there cannot be a sudden drop to 800 million.

The fertility rate dropped more than expected.

We already know that China's labor force has peaked in 2012, and since begun to decline.

Further, the population will peak before 2020, at 1.4 billion. And if nothing is done, and trends continue, The population by 2060 will decline to 800 million, along with a very distorted age structure.

Just see it this way, almost every household has around 1-2 kids in the family. This will mean continuous decline, which will be very rapid in nature.

 

[Raphael]

List of countries by future population (United Nations, constant fertility variant) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

World Population in 2100:

1 Nigeria 2733011
2 India 2668911
3 Democratic Republic of the Congo 1739617
4 Ethiopia 1058786
5 Pakistan 1006666
6 Niger 960646
7 Uganda 924481
8 Tanzania 922882
9 China 801925
10 Angola 659865
11 Indonesia 515567
12 Mozambique 481350
13 Kenya 464808
14 Mali 460827
15 Egypt 438620
16 United States 436618
17 Afghanistan
18 Iraq
19 Sudan
20 Chad

OP just can't wait for India, armed with 2.7 Billion population, to be #1 superpower in the world.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

List of countries by future population (United Nations, constant fertility variant) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

World Population in 2100:

1 Nigeria 2733011
2 India 2668911
3 Democratic Republic of the Congo 1739617
4 Ethiopia 1058786
5 Pakistan 1006666
6 Niger 960646
7 Uganda 924481
8 Tanzania 922882
9 China 801925
10 Angola 659865
11 Indonesia 515567
12 Mozambique 481350
13 Kenya 464808
14 Mali 460827
15 Egypt 438620
16 United States 436618
17 Afghanistan
18 Iraq
19 Sudan
20 Chad

OP just can't wait for India, armed with 2.7 Billion population, to be #1 superpower in the world.

This is a flawed model. It assumed Constant Fertility Rates, which is bullshit.

 

[CHN Bamboo]

Land carrying capacity is limited,1 billion is enough.
I can feel in newspaper,every year the number of Hubei student declines.And many Chinese only want to have 1or2 child,it will keep declining except the life stress ease.

 

[Raphael]

This is a flawed model. It assumed Constant Fertility Rates, which is bullshit.

So you think your own numbers, on the basis of which your created this thread, are bullshit?

 

[seven7seven]

This is ridiculous, can't be possible. Many say China's population will reach the peak in the future of about 1.6 billion, and then remain stable for a decades. Even if it is projected to decline, there cannot be a sudden drop to 800 million.

Come on Bro! Don't burst delusional Indians bubble

All Indians have is a big population and they seem to think that this is what will give them an edge in future, over China. However, everyone who isn't a delusional Indian knows that having a huge population, with a clumsy and inefficient democracy and governance, is just going to lead to more problems. Indians think that just by breeding more and growing in population will mean that they will magically overtake China and become super-advanced in due course.

Let's let them keep believing that