China's peace plan and where things now stand

[Banglar Bir]

November 29, 2017 / LAST MODIFIED: 12:45 PM, November 29, 2017
ROHINGYA CRISIS
China's peace plan and where things now stand

More than three months into the latest influx of Rohingya refugees, they continue to stream out of Myanmar into Bangladesh, saying they have lost sources of livelihood such as farms and fisheries. PHOTO: ANISUR RAHMAN
Eresh Omar Jamal
The Rohingya crisis has been tough on Bangladesh. First, because of the sheer scale of the influx from Myanmar and its continuity and second because Bangladesh has had to witness them from up close which always makes it more difficult.
The only exceptions to this must be those who commit such atrocities themselves, en masse, as factions within Myanmar are alleged to have done as pointed out by the UN, US, UK, France and a number of human rights organisations among countless others.

Which is why sceptics find it so hard to believe that those making the decisions in Myanmar have, or are willing to, act in good faith with Bangladesh in regards to repatriating and ending the violence against its minorities, which has harmed Bangladesh's interest in many ways, while rendering homeless more than 600,000 men, women and children now living, if it could be called that, in makeshift camps in Bangladesh.

Another reason why this crisis has been so hard on Bangladesh is the lack of substantive support it has received from many of its close partners, particularly India and China, the two most influential in the region. Although even then, one cannot help but admit that this lack of support, to some extent, is of Bangladesh's own making, as its inadequacies and weaknesses over the years have left it with very little diplomatic leverage.

Nevertheless, the most positive recent development in regards to this crisis has been China's proposed peace plan, which both Bangladesh and Myanmar have formally agreed to. The first phase of this plan, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said, “is to effect a ceasefire on the ground, to return to stability and order, so the people can enjoy peace and no longer be forced to flee.”

The second and third parts of the plan are to facilitate an orderly return of those who have fled to Bangladesh from Myanmar to their homeland, and “to work toward a long-term solution based on poverty alleviation.”

Moreover, according to the “Arrangement on Return of Displaced Persons from Rakhine State” signed between Bangladesh and Myanmar (on November 23), the two countries also “have agreed” to outline some “general principles, policy aspects and modalities” needed “to ensure smooth conduct of return of displaced Myanmar residents from Rakhine State expeditiously and their integration into Myanmar society.” These “general guiding principles” are 19 in number and seem vague at first sight.

And this lack of concretisation could pose major problems moving forward as many have already pointed out, especially given the current state of relationship between the two countries and the lack of sympathy that the Myanmar government has shown towards Bangladesh, even in response to Bangladesh's immense patience in dealing with Myanmar's seemingly outright hostile activities.

Such past attitude by Myanmar also puts into question its sincerity in adhering to the arrangement, which states that the two countries reiterate “their firm conviction to resolve their problems amicably and peacefully through bilateral negotiations on the basis of mutual understanding, accommodation, trust and goodwill and maintain peace and tranquillity on their borders.”

While it is difficult to say that Bangladesh has shown anything other than a willingness to amicably and peacefully resolve the issues it has with Myanmar, the same cannot be said about Myanmar thus far. Although the latest agreement does provide Myanmar with the perfect opportunity to prove its critics wrong, and re-establish some of the trust and goodwill it has lost with Bangladesh.

But given Myanmar's lack of concern in the past for the interest of Bangladesh and the minorities that have fled from its own territories, how likely is it that Myanmar is willing to make the necessary compromises and take the required steps to establish permanent peace in the region?
Critics say not very.
However, the truth is that only time can tell.

What is interesting though is that according to reports, Myanmar's army has replaced the general in charge of Rakhine State, Major General Maung Maung Soe—transferring him from his post as the head of Western Command in Rakhine—only a couple of weeks back. Moreover, the impetus that China has provided could also prompt a shift in its position.

For example, according to Song Qingrun, a research fellow at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, “China's thinking is to resolve the Rohingya issue through development in Rakhine State” (“Decoding China's proposal to address Rohingya crisis”, November 22, China Global Television Network).

Referring to the Chinese foreign minister's comment about China building an economic corridor with Myanmar—starting from China's southern Yunnan Province and going down to Mandalay in Myanmar, before splitting east to Yangon and west to Kyaukpyu, a town in Rakhine State—Song explained that “China will use its capital, technology and other resources to help Myanmar to develop the poor area and decrease the causes of their conflicts.”

Whether the Myanmar authorities see things quite like this is difficult to say. But what is certainly true is that what Myanmar must now be aware of fully is that should Myanmar make an about-turn again—after China has tried to act as a mediator—it will also be irritating China, something which it can ill afford to do, particularly in the face of such widespread criticism from everyone else. Thus it is difficult to see how Myanmar can now afford to refuse China's request to stop the violence, and not work with Bangladesh to take back its nationals.

However, what Bangladesh (and China too, simply in the interest of regional stability) must remain insistent upon is that this time the violence against minorities in Myanmar must permanently be brought to a halt. That too should be included in the negotiations.

And lastly, on November 24 the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees reportedly said that conditions in Rakhine State “are not in place to enable safe and sustainable returns” for more than 600,000 Rohingya refugees. This the Myanmar authorities must address as it cannot expect those who have fled to return to the horrific conditions that they had escaped from in the first place. And neither should it expect that by delaying the process of addressing these issues, it would be able to pull the wool over Bangladesh's eyes this time.
Eresh Omar Jamal is a member of the editorial team at The Daily Star.
http://www.thedailystar.net/opinion...peace-plan-and-where-things-now-stand-1497706

 

[Banglar Bir]

Bangladesh PM: Put more pressure on Myanmar to take back its nationals
BSS
Published at 09:11 AM November 30, 2017

UN Under Secretary Fekitamoeloa Katoa Utoikamanu talking to Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina at her office in Dhaka on November 29, 2017 Focus Bangla
The prime minister said the people of Cox's Bazar are in trouble with the exodus of tens of thousands of Rohingya people
Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has renewed her call to the international community, including the United Nations, to put more pressure on Myanmar to take back its nationals from Bangladesh.

“The international community should continue to mount pressure on Myanmar so that they take back their forcibly displaced nationals from Bangladesh,” she said when UN Under Secretary Fekitamoeloa Katoa Utoikamanu paid a courtesy call on her at her office in Dhaka on Wednesday.

After the meeting, Prime Minister’s Press Secretary Ihsanul Karim briefed reporters.

The premier said Bangladesh has given shelter to the Rohingya people on the humanitarian grounds. “But it will not be possible for us to keep them here for a long time,” she said.

Sheikh Hasina said Bangladesh experienced severe flood this year. “And on top of it, the Rohingya crisis has become an additional burden for the country,” she said.

She said the people of Cox’s Bazar district are in trouble with the exodus of tens of thousands of Rohingya people who fled to Bangladesh following the atrocities on them.

Sheikh Hasina highlighted her government’s various successes in different fields, including women empowerment, development of agriculture, poverty reduction and rural development.

“The government is giving utmost priority to research for boosting agriculture production,” she said.

Pointing out Vision 2021 of her government, she said it has been working with a planned manner to achieve the goal.

Referring to Bangladesh’s commendable successes in achieving MDGs, the prime minister expressed her firm determination that it would also be able to achieve the SDGs set by the UN.

The UN Under Secretary highly appreciated Bangladesh’s development in various sectors and said the world body is reviewing to continue its assistance for Bangladesh although the country is going to graduate to a middle income country from an LDC.

In this connection, Fekitamoeloa Katoa Utoikamanu mentioned that graduation of a country from an LDC to a middle income country is a success of the UN efforts.

The UN Under Secretary said assistance will not be stopped if a country is graduated to a middle income one from an LDC saying the UN step should not be like punishment.

Fekitamoeloa said it is now revisiting rules and laws about how to provide the assistance to every individual country even after its graduation to a middle income country.

She said the UN would extend some kind of packages of assistance depending on the requirements and vulnerability of every single country and it would also discuss the requirements with the respective country.

The press secretary explained that previously the UN used to give such assistance under a single policy for all countries graduated to middle income countries from least developed countries.

Prime Minister’s International Affairs Advisor Dr Gowher Rizvi and Principal Secretary Dr Kamal Abdul Naser Chowdhury were present.
http://www.dhakatribune.com/banglad...-pm-put-pressure-myanmar-take-back-nationals/

 

[Banglar Bir]

Myanmar and China get their way
AKM Zakaria | Update: 11:56, Nov 30, 2017

An apparent way out has been reached regarding the Rohingya crisis, with Bangladesh and Myanmar signing an ‘agreement’ for the return of the refugees. The consequences of this are being debated and discussed at the moment. Generally speaking, there are two sides involved here - Bangladesh and Myanmar. But there are two important sides outside of this too, and they are India and China.

Normally we call an agreement a win-win deal when all quarters concerned benefit equally. Where does this agreement stand? And it is also important to assess whether it is actually effective at all in resolving the Rohingya crisis.

There are certain salient points to the agreement for the ‘repatriation of persons displaced from the Rakhine state’.
Firstly, Myanmar will take back those who are voluntarily willing to return, after verifying their identity.

Secondly, Myanmar’s decision is final regarding the verification of their identities.

Thirdly, if necessary, the two countries can involve the UN refugee agency in this task.

Fourthly, the refugees returning to Myanmar will initially be kept in temporary camps.

Fifthly, they will have to undergo a citizenship verification process over there.

Outside of this, other important points are, the agreement will apply to the Rohingyas who came to Bangladesh after October last year. The 300 thousand or so refugees, who have been here from beforehand, won’t be able to return under this agreement.

Myanmar did not acquiesce to the agreement the way that Bangladesh wanted it. The agreement was finalised in accordance to Myanmar’s wishes, on the lines of the 1992 agreement for repatriation of the Rohingya refugees.

It is obvious that Myanmar’s interests and conditions have been upheld in the agreement. Our foreign minister doesn’t want to admit this. He said that the repatriation of the refugees is the important issue and Myanmar has agreed to this. The important question here is, under this agreement will the refugees be repatriated in accordance to Bangladesh’s wishes?
Given the terms of the agreement, and past experience, there is no reason to be very hopeful.

Also, under what assurance will the Rohingyas be eager to ‘voluntarily’ return home where they have been facing such barbarity and oppression? What is there in the agreement that will assure them of a safe return?

If there was any other party outside of Bangladesh and Myanmar involved in the agreement, or if there was an international guarantee in this regard then there would be scope for confidence in their return. Bangladesh will be in a fix if the refugees do not want to ‘voluntarily’ return home, based on the agreement signed between Bangladesh and Myanmar.

According to the agreement, the returning refugees will have to stay in camps and their citizenship will be verified once again. If anyone doesn’t pass the verification, what will happen? Will they remain prisoners in the refugee camps? It is difficult to imagine any refugee wanting to willingly return based on such a flimsy agreement.

Even if the repatriation begins within two months as per the agreement, the process will be lengthy and complicated. The foreign minister himself admitted this. The agreement does not have any timeframe in which the repatriation is to be completed.

The Myanmar government’s policy concerning the Rohingyas makes it clear that they will use any excuse to obstruct and delay the process as far as possible. It is obvious that they want to free Arakan of Rohingyas and have been working to that end over the past few decades. They have in effect managed to clear Arakan of Rohingyas.

Myanmar signed an agreement in the past too with Bangladesh for the return of the Rohingyas, but we all know the outcome of that agreement. We cannot understand on what basis is there any hope for the outcome of this agreement to be any different, since it is based on the old agreement. What will Bangladesh do if the Rohingyas, faced with the uncertainty of their fate, refuse to return? Will the refugees be forced to return? If Bangladesh does so, it will lose all the appreciation it has garnered for providing shelter to the refugees.

We stand more to lose than win from this agreement. Prime minister Sheikh Hasina had put forward certain specific recommendations at the UN and other international forums regarding a resolution to the Rohingya crisis and the speedy repatriation and rehabilitation of the Rohingya refugees. She spoke of creating a safety zone under the UN so that the Rohingyas could return to their own homes and that the safety of all citizens of Arakan be ensured.

She also called for the implementation of the Kofi Annan commission recommendations. There is hardly any way for a permanent solution to the Rohingya crisis other than such an initiative. It is also very clear that this work cannot be carried out without international pressure. So was it realistic at all to move away from that stance and go ahead with this deal?

From Myanmar’s perspective, this agreement is a significant achievement. They managed to sign the agreement at a time when international opinion was building up against Myanmar over the Rohingya issue. The brutality against the Rohingyas was gradually being revealed.

The UN and other international agencies and states began to use terms such as ‘genocide’ and ‘ethnic cleansing’. Demands have been raised at an international level, including in the US and other states of the West, from the accused military offices of Myanmar to be tried.

Various moves are also being made to take action against Myanmar. But this agreement with Bangladesh will undoubtedly quell all these initiatives. And Myanmar will use this as a shield. This agreement is an escape route for Myanmar from all the allegations of genocide, crimes against humanity and ethnic cleansing. Myanmar is the winner.

It was only expected that China would back Myanmar on the Rohingya issue. China and Myanmar have historic ties. When China was isolated from the rest of the world and faced all sorts of sanctions, Myanmar was the only one that maintained relations with the country. But it was shocking for us that India sided with Myanmar.

Bangladesh did not get this regional power, neighbor and closest friend, India, by its side in such a dire crisis. India did not murmur a single stern word in protest against the ethnic cleansing and violence against a particular community in a neighbouring state where hundreds of thousands were being driven away.

Analysts and observers say that India took this stance due to geo-political and economic reasons. One can then ask, has India been able to benefit from such a stand? Will it be able to do so in the future? Reality reveals quite the opposite. India remains silent about the Rohingya issue at present. It is said that China has played a role behind the deal signed between Bangladesh and Myanmar. It is evident that China, as a regional power, holds the control and authority over the Rohingya issue.

India hardly has scope to play a role here, or it has failed to play its due role. India will not be able to make a slightest dent in the influence China wields over Myanmar, particularly over the military there. While the agreement between Bangladesh and Myanmar was being signed in Naypyidaw, the Myanmar military chief was visiting China. And soon Aung San Suu Kyi will be visiting China as well.

So what did India gain from the Rohingya issue? It may gain certain investment and economic benefits, but the calculations are complex when it comes to geo-politics or the completion between China and India.

Both India and China are opposed to western intervention in the region. Both the countries want to exert their influence and power in the region. From the very outset, China wanted to keep the US and the countries of the West away from the Rohingya issue. That is why China pushed the agreement between Bangladesh and Myanmar. It is clear that China wants a sole role in this regard.

China’s role behind the Bangladesh-Myanmar agreement emphasises the strength of China’s role in the region’s geo-politics. This agreement is a victory for both Myanmar and China.

What will Bangladesh do now? Bangladesh’s biggest wish now is for the return of the Rohingyas. Bangladesh had to sign the agreement in accordance to China’s wishes and so now it must get a guarantee from China regarding the implementation of the agreement.
* AKM Zakaria is a senor journalist and can be reached at akmzakaria@gmail.com <mailto:akmzakaria@gmail.com>. This column, originally published in Prothom Alo Bangla print edition, has been rewritten in English by Ayesha Kabir.
http://en.prothom-alo.com/opinion/news/135535/Myanmar-and-China-get-their-way

 

[Banglar Bir]

Confusion over Rohingya repatriation deal confounded
Faruque Ahmed
Confusion runs high over the repatriation deal for Rohingyas with Myanmar. It has a tentative decision to start repatriation within two months but lacks a time frame for completing the task. It does, however, provide for a joint working committee to work out a detail modality in three weeks.

However, given the hazy outlines of the deal some international organizations may not have been wrong to describe the accord only a ‘public relations stunt’ leaving basic issues unresolved.

Meanwhile, a new controversy has emerged with the government approval of a Tk 2312 crore resettlement project for Rohingyas at Bhashanchar in the coastal Hatiya district.
It clearly overshadows the repatriation process and contradicts the refugee deal with Myanmar.

Is govt. unsure?
It appears that the government is unsure about its own repatriation deal with Myanmar and seemingly unable to believe that Myanmar would actually take back the refugees it has agreed to. While the government had to act decisively to handle the Rohingya refugee situation by taking up the Rohingya resettlement plan, albeit temporarily, yet it may give wrong signal to Myanmar and this may encourage it to further drag its feet to avoid entering into a meaningful repatriation process.

Sceptics tend to suggest that Myanmar’s repatriation policy appears doubtful without any firm commitment to stabilize the situation in the ground because the Rohingyas are still being forcibly pushed into Bangladesh while the accord was being signed.

This reveals Myanmar’s deceptive policy. Besides, Myanmar’s civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi asserts that repatriation will be voluntary and safe. However, no assurance of maintaining safety for the Rohingyas on their return is being offered from the Myanmar side.

Myanmar military has also suggested that ‘if and only’ when the ‘real local Buddhists’ accept, Rohingyas might come. It is quite clear that there is no apparent reason for those “real local” Buddhists to greet the Rohingya refuges with open arms.

Bangladesh Foreign Minister Mahmood Ali has, however, asserted before reporters on Saturday that Bangladesh’s interest has not been ignored or hampered at all in the deal—our main goal is to send the Rohingya Muslims back to their country.

Suu Kyi’s claim that Myanmar will take back the refugees but her terms and condition sounds quite tough and discriminatory. Her demand that repatriation will be based on the verification of residency of the refugees but most people have no residency papers as they were denied citizenship and it is not clear how they can prove their citizenship rights.

Moreover who will give guarantee for safety when the Myanmar government itself is planning to intern the Rohingyas in settlement camps instead of allowing them to return to their homes they were forced to vacate from the villages they leaved for ages? Government has already taken over their land and planning to relocate them in the remote areas.

The deal helped Myanmar
The deal has also avoided involvement of international agencies to play any part in this process. Myanmar may only accept the services of the UNCHR, which is mandated to look after refugee issue in verification of refugees if it requires but its advice will not be legally binding.

Bangladesh government, however, is claiming a big diplomatic success while Naypyidaw welcomed it as a win-a- win situation. But for Rohingyas there is noting to claim a wining point in it. Our government leaders are taking credit saying Bangladesh has made the deal possible without a third party involvement and without denting our bilateral relations.

Strangely, they also appear to be less confident about a meaningful repatriation. Perhaps, this has led to the preparation for the Bhashanchar resettlement plan.

Critics charge that Dhaka has surrendered its vital negotiating points for reaching a deal hastily. Despite the fact that Myanmar has pushed over 700,000 refugees into across the border since August 25 and ethnic cleansing still continues sending refugees daily, our government has not claimed for any compensation.

For all practical purposes, this is an act of open hostility against Bangladesh in clear breach of international law. Myanmar military has downloaded its domestic problem precipitating the biggest ever humanitarian crisis for Bangladesh. We have over one million Rohingya refugees so far and yet we shied away from claiming compensation from Myanmar and Myanmar has failed to clearly commit taking back its nationals.
The deal proved quite deceitful.

Third party scrutiny into the deal shows a foggy common ground that both countries may have shared in the deal. International media reports say Myanmar hastily wanted the deal to avoid mounting global pressure for putting its military leaders on trial who were responsible for organizing the ethnic cleansing operations.

UNHCR questions Rohingyas’ safety
In the eyes of international community, Myamar’s action clearly constitutes crime against humanity. In fact the UN is sitting on a special meeting called by Human Rights Commission early this week to look into the charges and demanded Myanmar information on military leaders responsible for the crime.
Bangladesh on the other hand, may have acted in the first place under pressure from regional power like China, Russia, India and East Asian countries supporting Myanmar’s ethnic cleansing to make the situation easier for Myanmar. We have a very weak position in the face of China and India supporting Myanmar.

Our government may have thought that a quarrel with Myanmar will jeopardize Bangladesh’s ‘Look East’ policy for connectivity. So it may have agreed to compromise the Rohingya cause to protect the bigger cause. In fact most South and Southeast Asian parties including China and India vying to gain from the crisis are looking at the strategic value of Rakhine state over the fate of the Rohingya Muslims. To them the land is valuable but not the people.

The three-point crisis resolution plan advanced by China’s foreign minister Mr. Wang Yi clearly sided with Myanmar’s cause and put the involvement of the west in the sideline. It is essentially a face saving deal and we are not in a position to expect anything more.

Meanwhile, the UNHCR has said, “At present, conditions in Myanmar’s Rakhine State are not in place to enable safe and sustainable returns and get back people to home there. Refugees are still fleeing. Moreover, most Rohingyas have little or nothing to go back to and when they can go they must have their citizenship back to live in peace. These are simply an illusion at this moment.

UNHCR want to see the repatriation in keeping with global standard. But Myanmar’s policy is quite non-cooperative in this regard. Besides, there is no guarantee that the repatriation will be voluntary either without the consent of refugees.
http://www.weeklyholiday.net/Homepage/Pages/UserHome.aspx

 

[Banglar Bir]

BD-Myanmar pact to repatriate refugees raises chilling questions
Ispita Chakravarty
Scroll.In
Months after thousands of Rohingya Muslims fled Myanmar in the wake of mass killings, rape and arson, Bangladesh plans to send them back. On November 23, it signed a repatriation deal with Myanmar, which is said to be based on an earlier pact signed in 1992, when a similar surge of violence had sent the Rohingya fleeing across the border.

Since August 2017, about 620,000 Rohingya Muslims have fled ethnic cleansing by the Myanmar military. According to a statement by a Bangladeshi minister, repatriation will start in two months. Many Rohingya, crammed into refugee camps in Bangladesh’s Cox’s Bazar and still traumatised by the violence they left behind, say it is too soon to go back.

The deal
The details of the deal are still sketchy and the two countries will reportedly form a joint working committee to oversee the process. This is what is known so far.

At least initially, only the Rohingya who entered Bangladesh after October 2016 will be sent back. Crucially, the agreement refers to them as “displaced Myanmar residents”, rather than citizens. They will need to provide proof of residency with documents issued in Myanmar. Documentation provided by the United Nations High Commission for Refugees will also have to be verified, and Myanmar will be the final arbiter of any dispute on their validity.

According to Bangladesh Foreign Minister AH Mahmood Ali, Myanmar will settle the repatriated Rohingya in their former neighbourhoods or any place near where their homes once stood. They will not stay in temporary settlements for long.

Both governments have agreed not to discriminate against any particular community in the process, Myanmar has reportedly promised not to penalise any Rohingya for “illegal exodus and return” unless they are found to be involved in terrorist or criminal activities. After repatriation, neither government will provide citizenship or residency to “illegal immigrants”.

A publicity stunt?
Human Rights Watch called the pact a “publicity stunt” and “laughable”, while Amnesty International said it was “unthinkable” for Rohingya refugees to return at the moment. Voices of concern have also been raised in Bangladesh, but the government is not taking questions. “Our only goal is to send the Rohingya back to their country, and there is no point in criticising this agreement,” said Ali in a press briefing. But the problems with the pact are obvious.

First, it makes no space for the involvement of a third party which could have monitored or steered the process. This is an especially crucial gap since neither country’s stance inspires much confidence. Bangladesh has made no secret of wanting to get the refugee population off its soil. As for Myanmar, it has maintained a sullen denial of the atrocities in the face of mounting evidence.

Second, the pact lets Myanmar decide on the legality of the documents produced. As one migration expert pointed out, this “kills a process that could have been neutral”. Since Myanmar stands accused of systematically trying to eject Rohingya from the country and of denying them citizenship, it is debatable how many documents it will admit as valid.

Third, there are logistical problems with producing and verifying the documents. In a country that has denied Rohingya citizenship and basic rights for years, it is not known how many people have identification papers. Besides, many fled leaving everything behind so they might not have the papers even if they were issued.

As former Bangladeshi ambassador M Humayun Kabir points out, most would depend on a “white card” or temporary identity certificate provided by the Myanmar government, which claimed their citizenship was in doubt. These are printed in Burmese but refugees giving their details for registration in Bangladesh often speak in Rakhine, which means names and addresses will often not match.

Fourth, the pact states that neither country will provide citizenship or residency to “illegal immigrants” once registration is complete. Given the difficulties of identification, the process is likely to leave a large number of people out. This will create a large, floating population of so-called illegal migrants left stateless once again. It should be remembered that the Myanmar government justified stripping the Rohingya of civil and political rights by claiming they were illegal Bangladeshi migrants in the first place.

Point of no return
Finally, there is the freighted question of what the Rohingya will return to. With entire villages razed to the ground, the government will need to help them rebuild their homes and lives once again. When the pact still refuses to call the Rohingya citizens of Myanmar, the government’s enthusiasm for such a project may be lacking. The provision about Myanmar penalising so called terrorists or criminals could lay the ground for a fresh campaign of persecution.

So far, there is nothing to suggest that this deal has what the 1992 agreement did not: safeguards to ensure that Myanmar’s military junta will alter its policies towards the Rohingya and not indulge in more killing sprees that will send them running for life across the border once again. With no evidence of a change of heart in the Myanmar government, this pact would only deliver the Rohingya back to their killers.
http://www.weeklyholiday.net/Homepage/Pages/UserHome.aspx?ID=5&date=0#Tid=15204

 

[mb444]

BD needs to begin training the rohingya.

Might as well start now. There is no other option.

War is coming.... no amount of diplomatic manuvering will prevent this inevitable outcome.

 

[UKBengali]

BD needs to begin training the rohingya.

Might as well start now. There is no other option.

War is coming.... no amount of diplomatic manuvering will prevent this inevitable outcome.

This Awami League regime are complete turds.
Either they are stupid or have an agenda that is hostile to BD's interests.

Pressure should have been applied on Myanmar to give the Rohingya citizenship and a
clause that gives BD the right to guarantee safety of Rohingya - i.e: BD military action if the
Barmans try the same stunt again.

 

[Banglar Bir]

Rohingyas and the politics of crisis
Afsan Chowdhury, November 30, 2017

Kutupalong refugee camp in Bangladesh’s Cox’s Bazar district, Photo: UNHCR
While Bangladesh is not really able to assert itself on the Rohingya crisis given its lack of clout and support, Myanmar has done better given the solid backing it has received from China. The result has been an MOU of sorts which has not generated any confidence in any quarters and ensured that the heat on Myanmar cooled a bit.
The Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Yi while visiting Bangladesh had said that as a mutual friend of both China and Bangladesh it welcomes the agreement or the MOU.

Myanmar should feel pleased with the MOU which puts no pressure on it to take back the refugees as has been pointed out. It has already started to go down any way compared to the initial days. World press has already started to shift attention and except for stray incidents about Suu Kyi losing one degree or another, Myanmar appears safe.

The West in general is more worried about North Korean bombs and Bangladesh –Myanmar issues are heading towards a low priority zone. Having withstood the initial global condemnation quite effectively, Myanmar is now stabilizing. It translates into dictating terms on the Rohingya matter.

Rohingya politics and Bangladesh
Making sure the Pope doesn’t even utter the word “Rohingya’ during his Myanmar trip was a good example of how strong Myanmar has become in the last three decades since they have been sending Rohingyas to Bangladesh. China has also backed the efforts made by Myanmar and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said everyone should recognize that much progress has happened since the crisis began, which is not Bangladesh’s stand.

While the MOU is about if and how and when – many think never- Rohingyas return to Myanmar, the Bangladesh Government’s position on what will happen if they don’t return is not clear which is a distinct possibility. However, there are domestic political issues involved as well.

The domestic audience wants to hear that Rohingya refugees will return as per the MOU and for the political side of the government which is also facing an election, it can’t afford not to have a “agreement” of some sort which will make it look good.

Real China and reality China
Chinese Minister Wang Yi while in Dhaka said that Bangladesh was the biggest recipient of Chinese concessional financial facilities, 5 billion US dollars in 2017 alone. He also discarded the claims that China loans were too expensive. “All this loans have been provided in light of actual needs,” adding that Bangladesh should dispel such speculations.
Also Read: Myanmar’s Suu Kyi to visit China amid Western criticism over Rohingya exodus

Wang Yi also stated that both One Belt and One Road (OBOR) initiative and strengthening the BCIM (Bangladesh–China–India–Myanmar Forum for Regional Cooperation) were both China’s priorities.

On the Rohingya issue, Wang Yi did admit that internal problems of Myanmar were affecting Bangladesh. He also praised Bangladesh’s humanitarian role on the Rohingya issue. China’s position, he stated, was a solution that was mutually acceptable and within the bi-lateral framework.

While Wnag Yi mentioned the UN’s role in the crisis the message was clear. China is a “good friend of both” and will do the best to play a constructive role. Meaning, China is the only player that matters for the moment.

What about India?
India has been left out of sorts from the crisis management and given China’s economic and military clout- it’s the largest arms supplier to both Myanmar and Bangladesh- India can do little. Some sections of Indian media have expressed a bit of unhappiness about China’s big role but as some analysts say, “India is not as big as China.”

While India has a long relationship with both Bangladesh and Myanmar, the ties are at different levels. Moreover, China’s relationship is also deeper with Myanmar than India’s and though it’s close to Bangladesh, China is rapidly coming closer.

So if India is feeling left out, it really can’t do much at the moment. China is playing top dog and the Indian bark is perhaps louder than its bite.

The stakes for all the countries actually have risen due to the crisis but so has uncertainty. For the moment China and Myanmar with the MOU signed may feel they have an edge over others but the MOU has to work to make Bangladesh in general and Sk. Hasina politically look better in 2018.
Also Read: Indian BSF pushes back Rohingyas to Bangladesh

If the MOU is a dud, her political priorities may push her to look for options which an unexplored West led by the US seems available.
But that may not still include India.

South Asia’s smaller member are also going to be more cautious about China seeing that its wide ranging interest in the region means it can’t take a particular side. The rise of expensive loans will not go away either. So how far China can travel as economies grow is a new era and 2017 seems to be crunch year in that calendar.

Bangladesh has already started to invest 270 million dollars to build a camp for a lakh of refugees which means both long term and immediate prospects are being considered. The Government will also have to reduce emerging anti- Rohingya hostility in the camp zones that may spread and cause political issues for 2018.

India will also worry if a regime change may mean a government less sympathetic to India’s transit facilities, something China may not dislike. And the Jihadist anxiety grows no matter what is said.

In other words, the Rohingya problem has left the refugee camps and entered the main space in Bangladesh and may do so in the region.
Also Read: Pope skips Rohingya crisis in Myanmar speech
https://southasianmonitor.com/2017/11/30/rohingyas-politics-crisis/

 

[Banglar Bir]

China, Myanmar hail close ties amid Rohingya outcry
Reuters
Published at 10:51 PM December 01, 2017

Myanmar's State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi arrives at the opening ceremony of the "CPC in dialogue with world political parties high-level meeting, at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China on Friday; December 1, 2017 Reuters
'The (Communist) Party and the Chinese government will continue their policy of friendship towards Myanmar,' Xi told Suu Kyi during their meeting.

Chinese President Xi Jinping and Aung San Suu Kyi touted their nations’ close ties on Friday as Myanmar’s civilian leader, under fire over the Rohingya refugee crisis, visited Beijing on Friday.

Suu Kyi was in friendly territory in China and neither she nor Xi publicly mentioned the plight of Myanmar’s Rohingya minority group as they met in the Chinese capital.

“The (Communist) Party and the Chinese government will, as in the past, continue their policy of friendship towards Myanmar,” Xi told Suu Kyi during their meeting, according to the Xinhua news agency.

Suu Kyi, who took office in 2015 after five decades of military dictatorship, gave a speech later during a meeting of world parties hosted by the Chinese Communist Party.

“China and Myanmar are committed to creating closer ties,” she said, adding that the founding goals of the CCP — “happiness for the Chinese people and rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” — and those of her National League for Democracy party are “not that dissimilar”.

The UN and US say the Rohingya are victims of an ethnic cleansing campaign by Myanmar’s military that has sent 620,000 of them fleeing into Bangladesh since late August.

Rohingya refugees have recounted widespread cases of rape, murder and arson at the hands of Myanmar’s military and Buddhist mobs.

Myanmar’s army insists its crackdown has been proportionate and targeted only at Rohingya rebels.

“Although Myanmar is not yet among the rich and powerful nations of the world, we are ambitious,” Suu Kyi said at the CCP gathering.

“Our ambition is to become a responsible member of the international community, willing and able to contribute to its peace and friendship throughout the world.”

Myanmar has received unflinching support from China, which has invested billions on ports, gas and oil in Rakhine — including a $2.45 billion pipeline that opened in April.

Xi met with Myanmar’s powerful army chief Min Aung Hlaing in Beijing last week.

Last month, strong Chinese opposition forced the UN Security Council to drop plans to adopt a resolution demanding an end to the violence.

Beijing has presented its own proposal to resolve the crisis with a ceasefire, refugee repatriation and poverty alleviation.

Bangladesh and Myanmar have reached a deal to begin returning refugees in two months.
http://www.dhakatribune.com/world/asia/2017/12/01/china-myanmar-rohingya-outcry/