Learn to read. What I said is just now. not the past, not future, just now... use latest date.
China's manufacturing sector, employment fall sharply
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Learn to read. What I said is just now. not the past, not future, just now... use latest date.
harpoon
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This chart is a complete lie.
India had 8.4% growth in 2011? What a joke, everyone saw the data that was recently released, India is barely growing at 6%.
You are free to believe what you want to believe. Indians & others , pls don't turn this thread also to a di*k measuring contest. These are serious times and the need of the hour is serious solutions.
We still has a 8.1% growth while you are 5.3%, care for yourself.
Ignited Mind
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World edges closer to deflationary slump as money contracts in China
All key indicators of China's money supply are flashing warning signs. The broader measures have slumped to stagnation levels not seen since the late 1990s.
Narrow M1 data for April is the weakest since modern records began. Real M1 deposits – a leading indicator of economic growth six months or so ahead – have contracted since November.
They are shrinking faster that at any time during the 2008-2009 crisis, and faster than in Spain right now, according to Simon Ward at Henderson Global Investors.
If China were a normal country, it would be hurtling into a brick wall. A "hard-landing" later this year would already be baked into the pie.
Whether this hybrid system of market Leninism – with banks run by Party bosses – conforms to Western monetary theory is a hotly contested point. The issue will be settled one way or the other soon.
What seems clear is that China's economy did not bottom out as expected in the first quarter. It is flirting with real trouble. Yao Wei from Societe Generale says a blizzard of awful data "screams out for easing".
China's electricity output – watched religiously by bears – slumped in April. It is up just 0.7pc over the last year. State investment in railways has fallen 44pc, with an accelerating downward lurch over recent months. Highway construction has dropped 2.7pc. "The data shows extreme weakness in the Chinese economy," said Alistair Thornton from IHS Global Insight in Beijing.
The Yangtze shipyards tell the tale. Caixin magazine said eight of the 10 largest builders in the country have not received a single new order this year. "A wave of closures in the shipbuilding industry has yet to begin. A hurricane is approaching," said one official.
Housing sales slumped 25pc in the first quarter, testimony to the zeal of regulators. This has since fed into a drastic fall in new building. Mr Thornton said floor place under construction fell 28.3pc in April.
This is hardly a sideshow. The sector employs 10pc of the Chinese work-force, and a further 20pc indirectly. Land sales provide 70pc of tax revenue to local authorities and 30pc to the central government. It is the "fair weather" financing illusion, as
we saw in Ireland. China's scope for fiscal stimulus may be constrained if property goes into a long slump.
The property correction is deemed benign because it is planned. Premier Wen Jiabao wishes to forces down prices as a social welfare policy. Yet did the Fed not slam on the brakes in 1928 to choke an asset boom? Did the Bank of Japan not do likewise in 1990, only to find that boom-bust deflation has its own fiendish momentum? Once you let credit rise by 100pc of GDP in five years – as China has, more than in those US or Japanese episodes – you are at the mercy of powerful forces.
Something odd is now happening. The People's Bank said new loans fell from $160bn (£99.5bn) in March to $108bn in April. Non-conventional lending seized up altogether. Trust lending fell by 96pc, bankers' acceptance bills by 90pc. This is astonishing data.
It may not be as easy for Beijing to turn the tap back on again. Loan demand has been falling for months. Banks are offering credit. Companies are refusing to take it. This is the old Japanese story of pushing on a string, or the European story today.
"China is in deflation," says Charles Dumas from Lombard Street Research. Yes, consumer price inflation is 3.4pc – though falling – but consumption is a third of GDP. Fixed investment is 46pc, and here prices have dropped 3.5pc in six months. Export prices have dropped 6.6pc.
The authorities have belatedly responded, cutting the reserve ratio by 50 points to 20pc over the weekend. It is thin gruel. Are we to conclude that the People's Bank is bent on breaking excess capacity in a cathartic Schumpeterian purge, or that leadership battles have paralysed the Party? Hard to tell.
All the BRICs need watching. India's industrial output fell 3.5pc in March. The country seems caught in a 1970s stagflation vice. Brazil has softened too, with car sales down 15pc and industrial production contracting in March. The bad loans of the banks have reached 10.3pc, higher than post-Lehman.
The bubble has probably popped already, but hoteliers in Rio are hanging on. The European Parliament has pulled out of the UN's Rio forum on sustainable development in June because the rooms are exorbitant. "We are short the vastly over-vaunted and over-owned BRICs," says hedge fund contrarian Hugh Hendry.
My fear has always been that the credit cycle in the Rising World would blow itself out before the Old World has safely recovered, or reached "escape velocity" to use the term in vogue.
Europe will slide further into 1930s self-destruction until it equips itself with a lender of last resort and takes all risk of EMU sovereign default off the table, though that may come too late. The US has functioning institutions at least but growth is barely above stall speed. Ben Bernanke's "massive fiscal cliff" looms this autumn. The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) has not yet withdrawn its US recession call.
The BRICS helped save us in 2008-2009. If we now face a global crisis on all fronts – and such an outcome can still be avoided – it will test the mettle of world leaders. Interest rates in the G10 are mostly zero already, and budgets are frighteningly stretched.
Sensing what is coming, Citigroup's chief economist Willem Buiter says global central banks have not yet exhausted their arsenal. They can "and should" crank up quantitative easing (QE), buy everything under the sun, and do "helicopter money drops".
I would go even further. sovereign central banks have the means to defeat any depression thrown at them by launching mass purchases of assets outside the banking system, working through the classic Hawtrey-Cassel quantity of money mechanism until nominal GDP is restored to its trend line.
The problem is not scientific. A world slump is preventable if leaders act with enough panache. The hindrance is that the Euro Tower still haunted by Hayekians, and most G10 citizens – and Telegraph readers from my painful experience – view such notions as Weimar debauchery, or plain Devil worship. Economists cannot command a democratic consent for monetary stimulus any more easily today than in 1932.
One can only pray that helicopter drops do not become necessary in the chilly winter of 2012-2013.
World edges closer to deflationary slump as money contracts in China - Telegraph
China's Economic Slowdown Ripples Through Hong Kong Retail
June 1 (Bloomberg) -- China's slowdown is rippling through Hong Kong, with the city's retail sales rising at the slowest pace since 2009 as mainland visitors cut spending.
Sales rose 11.4 percent in April from a year earlier, the government said yesterday. That's the smallest gain since October 2009, excluding January and February numbers distorted by the Lunar New Year holiday. The median estimate in a Bloomberg poll of economists was for a 16.4 percent increase.
The smaller-than-estimated gain came the same day as jewelry retailer Graff Diamonds Corp. shelved a $1 billion initial public offering in Hong Kong, blaming "consistently declining stock markets." Graff's rivals are feeling the effects, too. Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Co. billionaire Cheng Yu Tung's net worth dropped about 26 percent this year to $15 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
"Less extravagant spending by mainland shoppers is part of the issue," said Donna Kwok, a Hong Kong-based economist at HSBC Holdings Plc. "Local households are also being more prudent because of increasing turbulence in financial markets."
China's economy is cooling as Premier Wen Jiabao extends a crackdown on speculation in the housing market and Europe's sovereign-debt crisis and austerity measures constrain exports. In Hong Kong, a 15 percent decline in the Hang Seng Index since February has damped confidence and demand as households see the value of their assets dwindle. The benchmark is down 21 percent in the past 12 months.
Luxury Goods
Graff marketed its IPO amid a slowdown in luxury-goods spending in Hong Kong, where Chinese tourists splurge to take advantage of lower tax rates than in the mainland.
Sales of jewelry, watches and valuable gifts in Hong Kong rose an average of 17 percent in the first three months compared with a year earlier, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That's down from growth of about 37 percent in the last quarter of 2011, the data show.
Hong Kong's lower taxes may help to limit the scale of the slowdown in retail sales growth. Shopping in the Central district today, Wang Wei, 26, of Kaifeng in the Chinese province of Henan, said prices were cheaper than on the mainland and she planned to buy cosmetics and watches after already purchasing jewelry during her five-day visit.
In China, a Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 50.4 in May from 53.3 in April, the nation's statistics bureau and logistics federation said. That was the weakest reading since December and compared with the 52 median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 27 economists. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.
A separate PMI released by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics also declined.
The Chinese economy "is probably cooling faster than originally expected," Chang Jian, a Hong Kong-based economist at Barclays Capital who formerly worked for the World Bank, said before the release. "The only effective way to stabilize growth quickly is through investment."
--With assistance from Joshua Fellman in New York, Justina Lee in Hong Kong and Patrick Chu in Tokyo. Editors: Joshua Fellman, Patrick Chu
To contact the reporter on this story: Paul Panckhurst in Beijing at ppanckhurst@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Paul Panckhurst at ppanckhurst@bloomberg.net
Read more: China's Economic Slowdown Ripples Through Hong Kong Retail
Source: China Quarterly Update (April 2012). http://www.worldbank.org/content/dam/Worldbank/document/cqu_apri_2012_en.pdf
All key indicators of China's money supply are flashing warning signs. The broader measures have slumped to stagnation levels not seen since the late 1990s.
Narrow M1 data for April is the weakest since modern records began. Real M1 deposits – a leading indicator of economic growth six months or so ahead – have contracted since November.
They are shrinking faster that at any time during the 2008-2009 crisis, and faster than in Spain right now, according to Simon Ward at Henderson Global Investors.
If China were a normal country, it would be hurtling into a brick wall. A "hard-landing" later this year would already be baked into the pie.
Whether this hybrid system of market Leninism – with banks run by Party bosses – conforms to Western monetary theory is a hotly contested point. The issue will be settled one way or the other soon.
What seems clear is that China's economy did not bottom out as expected in the first quarter. It is flirting with real trouble. Yao Wei from Societe Generale says a blizzard of awful data "screams out for easing".
China's electricity output – watched religiously by bears – slumped in April. It is up just 0.7pc over the last year. State investment in railways has fallen 44pc, with an accelerating downward lurch over recent months. Highway construction has dropped 2.7pc. "The data shows extreme weakness in the Chinese economy," said Alistair Thornton from IHS Global Insight in Beijing.
The Yangtze shipyards tell the tale. Caixin magazine said eight of the 10 largest builders in the country have not received a single new order this year. "A wave of closures in the shipbuilding industry has yet to begin. A hurricane is approaching," said one official.
Housing sales slumped 25pc in the first quarter, testimony to the zeal of regulators. This has since fed into a drastic fall in new building. Mr Thornton said floor place under construction fell 28.3pc in April.
This is hardly a sideshow. The sector employs 10pc of the Chinese work-force, and a further 20pc indirectly. Land sales provide 70pc of tax revenue to local authorities and 30pc to the central government. It is the "fair weather" financing illusion, as
we saw in Ireland. China's scope for fiscal stimulus may be constrained if property goes into a long slump.
The property correction is deemed benign because it is planned. Premier Wen Jiabao wishes to forces down prices as a social welfare policy. Yet did the Fed not slam on the brakes in 1928 to choke an asset boom? Did the Bank of Japan not do likewise in 1990, only to find that boom-bust deflation has its own fiendish momentum? Once you let credit rise by 100pc of GDP in five years – as China has, more than in those US or Japanese episodes – you are at the mercy of powerful forces.
Something odd is now happening. The People's Bank said new loans fell from $160bn (£99.5bn) in March to $108bn in April. Non-conventional lending seized up altogether. Trust lending fell by 96pc, bankers' acceptance bills by 90pc. This is astonishing data.
It may not be as easy for Beijing to turn the tap back on again. Loan demand has been falling for months. Banks are offering credit. Companies are refusing to take it. This is the old Japanese story of pushing on a string, or the European story today.
"China is in deflation," says Charles Dumas from Lombard Street Research. Yes, consumer price inflation is 3.4pc – though falling – but consumption is a third of GDP. Fixed investment is 46pc, and here prices have dropped 3.5pc in six months. Export prices have dropped 6.6pc.
The authorities have belatedly responded, cutting the reserve ratio by 50 points to 20pc over the weekend. It is thin gruel. Are we to conclude that the People's Bank is bent on breaking excess capacity in a cathartic Schumpeterian purge, or that leadership battles have paralysed the Party? Hard to tell.
All the BRICs need watching. India's industrial output fell 3.5pc in March. The country seems caught in a 1970s stagflation vice. Brazil has softened too, with car sales down 15pc and industrial production contracting in March. The bad loans of the banks have reached 10.3pc, higher than post-Lehman.
The bubble has probably popped already, but hoteliers in Rio are hanging on. The European Parliament has pulled out of the UN's Rio forum on sustainable development in June because the rooms are exorbitant. "We are short the vastly over-vaunted and over-owned BRICs," says hedge fund contrarian Hugh Hendry.
My fear has always been that the credit cycle in the Rising World would blow itself out before the Old World has safely recovered, or reached "escape velocity" to use the term in vogue.
Europe will slide further into 1930s self-destruction until it equips itself with a lender of last resort and takes all risk of EMU sovereign default off the table, though that may come too late. The US has functioning institutions at least but growth is barely above stall speed. Ben Bernanke's "massive fiscal cliff" looms this autumn. The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) has not yet withdrawn its US recession call.
The BRICS helped save us in 2008-2009. If we now face a global crisis on all fronts – and such an outcome can still be avoided – it will test the mettle of world leaders. Interest rates in the G10 are mostly zero already, and budgets are frighteningly stretched.
Sensing what is coming, Citigroup's chief economist Willem Buiter says global central banks have not yet exhausted their arsenal. They can "and should" crank up quantitative easing (QE), buy everything under the sun, and do "helicopter money drops".
I would go even further. sovereign central banks have the means to defeat any depression thrown at them by launching mass purchases of assets outside the banking system, working through the classic Hawtrey-Cassel quantity of money mechanism until nominal GDP is restored to its trend line.
The problem is not scientific. A world slump is preventable if leaders act with enough panache. The hindrance is that the Euro Tower still haunted by Hayekians, and most G10 citizens – and Telegraph readers from my painful experience – view such notions as Weimar debauchery, or plain Devil worship. Economists cannot command a democratic consent for monetary stimulus any more easily today than in 1932.
One can only pray that helicopter drops do not become necessary in the chilly winter of 2012-2013.
World edges closer to deflationary slump as money contracts in China - Telegraph
China's Economic Slowdown Ripples Through Hong Kong Retail
June 1 (Bloomberg) -- China's slowdown is rippling through Hong Kong, with the city's retail sales rising at the slowest pace since 2009 as mainland visitors cut spending.
Sales rose 11.4 percent in April from a year earlier, the government said yesterday. That's the smallest gain since October 2009, excluding January and February numbers distorted by the Lunar New Year holiday. The median estimate in a Bloomberg poll of economists was for a 16.4 percent increase.
The smaller-than-estimated gain came the same day as jewelry retailer Graff Diamonds Corp. shelved a $1 billion initial public offering in Hong Kong, blaming "consistently declining stock markets." Graff's rivals are feeling the effects, too. Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Co. billionaire Cheng Yu Tung's net worth dropped about 26 percent this year to $15 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
"Less extravagant spending by mainland shoppers is part of the issue," said Donna Kwok, a Hong Kong-based economist at HSBC Holdings Plc. "Local households are also being more prudent because of increasing turbulence in financial markets."
China's economy is cooling as Premier Wen Jiabao extends a crackdown on speculation in the housing market and Europe's sovereign-debt crisis and austerity measures constrain exports. In Hong Kong, a 15 percent decline in the Hang Seng Index since February has damped confidence and demand as households see the value of their assets dwindle. The benchmark is down 21 percent in the past 12 months.
Luxury Goods
Graff marketed its IPO amid a slowdown in luxury-goods spending in Hong Kong, where Chinese tourists splurge to take advantage of lower tax rates than in the mainland.
Sales of jewelry, watches and valuable gifts in Hong Kong rose an average of 17 percent in the first three months compared with a year earlier, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That's down from growth of about 37 percent in the last quarter of 2011, the data show.
Hong Kong's lower taxes may help to limit the scale of the slowdown in retail sales growth. Shopping in the Central district today, Wang Wei, 26, of Kaifeng in the Chinese province of Henan, said prices were cheaper than on the mainland and she planned to buy cosmetics and watches after already purchasing jewelry during her five-day visit.
In China, a Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 50.4 in May from 53.3 in April, the nation's statistics bureau and logistics federation said. That was the weakest reading since December and compared with the 52 median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 27 economists. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.
A separate PMI released by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics also declined.
The Chinese economy "is probably cooling faster than originally expected," Chang Jian, a Hong Kong-based economist at Barclays Capital who formerly worked for the World Bank, said before the release. "The only effective way to stabilize growth quickly is through investment."
--With assistance from Joshua Fellman in New York, Justina Lee in Hong Kong and Patrick Chu in Tokyo. Editors: Joshua Fellman, Patrick Chu
To contact the reporter on this story: Paul Panckhurst in Beijing at ppanckhurst@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Paul Panckhurst at ppanckhurst@bloomberg.net
Read more: China's Economic Slowdown Ripples Through Hong Kong Retail
Source: China Quarterly Update (April 2012). http://www.worldbank.org/content/dam/Worldbank/document/cqu_apri_2012_en.pdf
kawaraj
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Oh....how "Better"? 5.3% higher than 8.1%?
And don't forget China is a economic with $7.4 trillion GDP, While you only $1.4 trillion...
to create 8.1 you use resources inefficiently and destroy your ecology , so the loss accrued is far greater than 8.1 . So if yo put in the negative number , your growth will be around -2%. india's efficient use of resources will mean a growth of about 3-4%.
if india strips all its resounrce we can also become 50 trillion economy in 5 years. but we choose to keep nature as we like to live i our lands.
Chinese-Dragon
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5.3% ...going merry round for the 4th day.
unlimited fun.
When Indians think their manufacturing sector and economic growth are better than China's, despite all the numbers pointing the opposite direction, what else can you do?
I really can't understand Indians....Did you kown anything about "economic"?
Can you show me "india strips all its resounrce we can also become 50 trillion economy in 5 years"?
kawaraj
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you don't sounds like Indians if you don't bother to check your spelling for our convenience.
i know about economics, economy but not sure what you mean about "economic"
you cant understand because its difficult for you to comprehend complex subjects, but do let me kow if you have any questions i will be glad to help you
kawaraj
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you don't sounds like Indians if you don't bother to check your spelling for our convenience.
what spelling is wrong here? ignore the typo, i am doing great service to you by participating in the forum using a handphone which is cumbersome. I am indian but soon to be SGPrean
