China's J-20 and the signs of self-reliance

[fatman17]

ASIA PACIFIC
Date Posted: 07-Jan-2011


Jane's Defence Weekly


China's J-20 and the signs of self-reliance.

Jon Grevatt Jane's Asia-Pacific Industry Reporter - Bangkok

The emergence of images on the internet of what appears to be a next-generation People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) combat aircraft reflect the rapid speed with which the country's defence industry base has developed over the past decade, according to China's state-controlled media.

The images appear to show an aircraft known as the J-20 or J-XX on a runway. The aircraft, which resembles the Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor, is known to have been in development for at least a decade by the Chengdu Aircraft Industry Corporation and the Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, which are both subsidiaries of the Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC).

'Industrial military progress'

Most of China's state media has not made reference to the images but the Global Times , a sister publication of the Chinese Communist Party newspaper, the People's Daily , said on 5 January that while the "rumoured prototype of China's J-20 stealth fighter jet has created a stir ... any such programme simply reflects the country's industrial military progress".

The Global Times report went on to quote Song Xiaojun, a Beijing-based military analyst, as saying: "If the development of the J-20 is true it will be another reflection of China's fast industrial advancement." He added: "Besides the global military impact, the rumoured J-20 also bears political significance because it represents China's growing power."

Flight trials

Although official information about the J-20 remains scarce, some statements from PLAAF officials in recent months have indicated that flight trials of the aircraft were imminent, suggesting that the J-20 programme is on track to enter PLAAF service later this decade. For instance, the Deputy Commander of the PLAAF, General He Weirong, said in state media in November 2009 that the J-20 could enter service within the next "eight to 10 years" and that first flight of the prototype would be achieved "soon".

The J-20 is thought to be based on Russian designs and some of its key features are also expected to be based on Russian technologies, acquired either through licensed production techniques or through direct sales of components and systems. The aircraft's engine is almost certainly of Russian origin as China's defence industry base has yet to develop and produce an aircraft engine powerful or reliable enough to be fitted onto such a platform.

Signs of self-reliance?

However, many parts of the aircraft will be based on indigenously developed technologies, reflecting a focus in Beijing over the past decade on becoming industrially self reliant. This focus has emerged partly in response to the military embargo imposed by the West and is expected to accelerate during China's 12th Five Year Plan, which runs 2011-2015.

The self-reliance plan is being driven by China's rapidly expanding economy and wide-ranging industry reforms designed to render industry independent, more competitive in international markets and technologically more proficient. Referencing these factors, Chinese Defence Minister Liang Guanglie said on 28 December that, although industrial development has progressed greatly during the past decade, military modernisation will "speed up" during the 12th Five Year Plan.

"In the next five years our economy and society will develop faster, boosting comprehensive national power," he said. "The developments will provide an even more stable material base to our defence and military build-up. We'll take the opportunity and speed up modernisation of the military according to plans already made."

Although Guanglie did not mention the J-20 aircraft, he pointed to a number of modern military platforms already developed and produced by China's defence industry - such as the J-10 combat aircraft and the KJ-2000 airborne early warning and control aircraft - and added: "China's armed forces could only depend on themselves - not others - to ensure modernisation and the development of equipment."

 

[fatman17]

ASIA PACIFIC
Date Posted: 07-Jan-2011


Jane's Defence Weekly

Russian industry sceptical about China's 'fifth-gen' fighter.

Reuben F Johnson JDW Correspondent - Kiev


Key Points
China's J-20 next-generation fighter was being prepared for its maiden flight as JDW closed for press on 7 January

Russian aerospace sources with experience of co-operation with China are sceptical about the J-20's fifth-generation credentials


The Chinese fifth-generation fighter being called the Jian-20 (J-20) by numerous media sources is being prepared for a first flight from the aerodrome at the Chengdu Aerospace Development Institute (CADI) and the adjacent Aircraft Plant No 132. The programme is represented by two prototype aircraft, with fuselage numbers 2001 and 2002.

Russia's aerospace industry has a long history of co-operation with China's main fighter production centres at CADI and Shenyang, and is familiar with the capabilities of both. One source from a major Russian enterprise that began aerospace industrial co-operation with China in the 1990s told Jane's : "We have heard about this aircraft and have even seen photographs and drawings of it as far back as six months ago. When you see it [the J-20] you will realise that at least half of this aeroplane is of Russian design. There is practically no other place that they could have come up with a planform for a stealthy or blended body design in - what is even for them - such a short period of time."

The J-20's design follows the pattern of the other recently developed fighter, the J-10, in that there are "pieces of several different aeroplanes seen in its planform - the Lockheed YF-22, the Northrop YF-23, the Mikoyan MFI Project 1.42/1.44 and the Sukhoi S-37/Su-47," said a Russian industry analyst. "It is not a direct imitation of something else, like the Shenyang J-11 that is copied from the [Sukhoi] Su-27," he said, "so, at least as the Chinese define it, this qualifies the aircraft as an 'indigenous' design."

Chinese and Taiwanese reports have also referenced a recent article by Ilya Kramnik, a military analyst for Russia's RIA Novosti news agency, in which he points out that, despite the Chengdu aircraft being a major advancement, it is still far behind the rest of the world in terms of stealth.

"The J-20 fighter was produced nearly 20 years after the US YF-22, 17 years after the Russian MiG-1.44 MFI and 14 after Russia's S-37/Su-47. If the J-20 is accepted as the prototype for a new series, China will be able to produce a fifth-generation fighter plane within 10 years," wrote Kramnik. "If not, it will begin batch production no sooner than 15 or 20 years from now."

Russian industry representatives with hands-on experience working on the Su-27 and Su-30MKK programmes in China are even more sceptical.

"It is entirely possible that Chengdu have been able to 'kludge' an airframe together that is almost entirely aluminium alloy in composition, but there are unlikely to be any exotic or stealthy materials there," said one such source. "Chinese industry is also behind Russia's and the rest of the world in almost all critical technologies: jet engines, radar, composite materials and avionics. Even most Chinese air-launched weapons have their genesis in some other country's design."

The Russian experience in working with Chinese industry in the licensed production of the Su-27SK (J-11) is also less than encouraging, claimed the same source. "The Chinese never proved themselves proficient to our level in building Su-27s - even when we were there to hold their hand all the time. So whether or not this programme can move forward on its own without encountering real problems is a big question."

One of the big unknowns is what powerplant is used in the two J-20 prototypes, as there is some contention over whether or not they are Saturn/Rybinsk 117S engines or a variant of the Shenyang-based Liming Aeroengine Manufacturing Corporation (LMAC) WS-10. There have never been any 117S models officially shipped to China, but Russian industry representatives say that does not discount the possibility of China having acquired these engines.

"It would not surprise me at all to learn that some of these engines have been somehow transferred to China already," said the Russian industry source. "The Chinese have purchased a great deal of hardware from Russia over the years, but they have also acquired plenty of other items that they did not procure 'officially'."

Just after the November 2010 China Airshow, Russian Defence Minister Anatoliy Serdyukov returned to Moscow from an official visit to China "carrying a number of proposals in the sphere of military-technical cooperation", according to Russian daily Vedomosti . Its article, entitled 'China Has Not Copied Everything', quotes sources from inside both the MoD and Rosoboronexport, the Russian arms export monopoly. According to these sources, the list of items China's military is seeking to purchase includes an unspecified large number of 117S engines and the Almaz-Antey S-400 air defence system. China purchasing the 117S can only mean that it is intended as the powerplant for an entirely new aircraft programme, as well as confirming China's continuing dependence upon Russia for jet engines.

China's next-generation J-20 fighter has been photographed conducting taxi trials at the Chengdu Aerospace Development Institute and was believed to be close to its maiden flight as JDW closed for press on 7 January.

Russian industry experts are sceptical of the J-20's stealth and other capabilities.

 

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I dont know how honest the Russian take on the issue is but to me it looks like a pretty applaudable effort. Self reliance is one of the most important aspects of national security and China is going in the right direction. Even if the product is not the best in the competition, you can be sure that you're the only one you have to count on in a war like situation.