ZY-CN-CA
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哦哦Dunno what r u talking about, related to export?
Pls read August 20-26th issue of the Economist.
China's Export Machine Is Grabbing More of the Global Market
- Thread starter Raphael
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Tresbon
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China is eating up a larger chunk of the world's shrinking trade pie.
Brushing off rising wages, a shrinking workforce and intensifying competition from lower cost nations from Vietnam to Mexico, China's global export share climbed to 14.6 percent last year from 12.9 percent a year earlier. That's the highest proportion of world exports ever in International Monetary Fund data going back to 1980.
Yet even as its export share climbs globally, manufacturing's slice of China's economy is waning as services and consumption emerge as the new growth drivers. For the global economy, a slide in China's exports this year isn't proving any respite as an even sharper slump in its imports erodes a pillar of demand.
Those trends are likely to be replicated in August data due Thursday. Exports are estimated to fall 4 percent from a year earlier and imports are seen dropping 5.4 percent, leaving a trade surplus of $58.85 billion, according to a survey of economists by Bloomberg News as of late Tuesday.
While China's advantage in low-end manufacturing has been seized upon by Donald Trump's populist campaign for the U.S. presidency, the shift into higher value-added products from robots to computers is also pitting China against developed-market competitors from South Korea to Germany. A weaker yuan risks exacerbating global trade tensions, which became a hot button issue at the G-20 meeting in Hangzhou over cheap steel shipments.
"All the talk we have heard over the last few years about China losing its global competitive advantage is nonsense," said Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy at AMP Capital Investors in Sydney. "This will all further fuel increasing trade tensions as already evident in the U.K. with the Brexit vote and in the U.S. with the support for Trump's populist protectionist platform."
China is also facing opposition to its global shopping spree and calls from bodies such as the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China for improved market access.
A key driver of China's export share gains is its move toward more sophisticated assembly, especially in electronics, which eliminates the need to source components from a vast supply chain across Asia, said Frederic Neumann, co-head of Asian economic research at HSBC Holdings in Hong Kong. That's hurting companies and economies from Singapore to Thailand, Malaysia, Taiwan and South Korea, said Neumann.
The government is subsidizing higher technology industries including new advanced information technology, robotics, and new energy vehicles under its "Made in China 2025" plan. More is to come as President Xi Jinping's blueprint envisions global competitiveness within a decade in 10 industries from machine tools and robots to advanced railway equipment and medical devices.
China increasingly is turning into an economic rival as it pushes to produce higher-value exports, said German Chancellor Angela Merkel on a trip to the nation in June. Those stern words from the leader of China's fifth biggest trade partner pale in comparison with the rhetoric from Trump, who has accused China of raping the U.S. in "the greatest theft in the history of the world."
"Political support for open trade and investment is evaporating globally and no one has more to lose than China," said David Loevinger, a former China specialist at the U.S. Treasury who is now an analyst at fund manager TCW Group Inc. in Los Angeles. "China has become the bogey man for opponents of globalization."
At the G-20 meeting in Hangzhou "China took a drubbing behind the scenes over its steel exports, which have flooded global markets and become a symbol of trade imbalances that have fed resentment across nations," said Pauline Loong, managing director at research firm Asia-analytica in Hong Kong. "Protectionism is China's biggest worry."
The latest IMF data for the first quarter of this year shows China's market share edged down in January and February -- notoriously volatile months because of a week-long Lunar New Year holiday -- and bounced back again in March, indicating the nation's manufacturers are set to at least hold on to previous gains. Last year, the U.S. also increased its share while Russia was the biggest decliner among the top 15 exporters as oil prices fell.
But it's not all upside for China. While it's successfully transitioning into medium-end technologies, it has yet to make the leap into high-value-added exports, says Andrew Polk, Beijing-based head of China research at Medley Global Advisors, which advises hedge funds and other institutional investors.
"Maybe they can, but it remains an open question," he said. "The highest value-add is in intangible items like branding. Right now, there is not really a globally branded Chinese company that stands for high quality."
Yet even without its own Coca-Cola, Nike or Apple equivalent on the world stage, China's export juggernaut is winning by default as other major exporters fall behind.
"After having come this far I see no reason why China's march up the value-chain would suddenly stop," said James Laurenceson, deputy director of the Australia-China Relations Institute at the University of Technology in Sydney. "Chinese companies are competing outside their home base against the best in the world, and winning. This points to a hyper-competitive manufacturing sector, not one losing its shine."
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/...53-11e6-9781-49e591781754-20160906-story.html
Brushing off rising wages, a shrinking workforce and intensifying competition from lower cost nations from Vietnam to Mexico, China's global export share climbed to 14.6 percent last year from 12.9 percent a year earlier. That's the highest proportion of world exports ever in International Monetary Fund data going back to 1980.
Yet even as its export share climbs globally, manufacturing's slice of China's economy is waning as services and consumption emerge as the new growth drivers. For the global economy, a slide in China's exports this year isn't proving any respite as an even sharper slump in its imports erodes a pillar of demand.
Those trends are likely to be replicated in August data due Thursday. Exports are estimated to fall 4 percent from a year earlier and imports are seen dropping 5.4 percent, leaving a trade surplus of $58.85 billion, according to a survey of economists by Bloomberg News as of late Tuesday.
While China's advantage in low-end manufacturing has been seized upon by Donald Trump's populist campaign for the U.S. presidency, the shift into higher value-added products from robots to computers is also pitting China against developed-market competitors from South Korea to Germany. A weaker yuan risks exacerbating global trade tensions, which became a hot button issue at the G-20 meeting in Hangzhou over cheap steel shipments.
"All the talk we have heard over the last few years about China losing its global competitive advantage is nonsense," said Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy at AMP Capital Investors in Sydney. "This will all further fuel increasing trade tensions as already evident in the U.K. with the Brexit vote and in the U.S. with the support for Trump's populist protectionist platform."
China is also facing opposition to its global shopping spree and calls from bodies such as the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China for improved market access.
A key driver of China's export share gains is its move toward more sophisticated assembly, especially in electronics, which eliminates the need to source components from a vast supply chain across Asia, said Frederic Neumann, co-head of Asian economic research at HSBC Holdings in Hong Kong. That's hurting companies and economies from Singapore to Thailand, Malaysia, Taiwan and South Korea, said Neumann.
The government is subsidizing higher technology industries including new advanced information technology, robotics, and new energy vehicles under its "Made in China 2025" plan. More is to come as President Xi Jinping's blueprint envisions global competitiveness within a decade in 10 industries from machine tools and robots to advanced railway equipment and medical devices.
China increasingly is turning into an economic rival as it pushes to produce higher-value exports, said German Chancellor Angela Merkel on a trip to the nation in June. Those stern words from the leader of China's fifth biggest trade partner pale in comparison with the rhetoric from Trump, who has accused China of raping the U.S. in "the greatest theft in the history of the world."
"Political support for open trade and investment is evaporating globally and no one has more to lose than China," said David Loevinger, a former China specialist at the U.S. Treasury who is now an analyst at fund manager TCW Group Inc. in Los Angeles. "China has become the bogey man for opponents of globalization."
At the G-20 meeting in Hangzhou "China took a drubbing behind the scenes over its steel exports, which have flooded global markets and become a symbol of trade imbalances that have fed resentment across nations," said Pauline Loong, managing director at research firm Asia-analytica in Hong Kong. "Protectionism is China's biggest worry."
The latest IMF data for the first quarter of this year shows China's market share edged down in January and February -- notoriously volatile months because of a week-long Lunar New Year holiday -- and bounced back again in March, indicating the nation's manufacturers are set to at least hold on to previous gains. Last year, the U.S. also increased its share while Russia was the biggest decliner among the top 15 exporters as oil prices fell.
But it's not all upside for China. While it's successfully transitioning into medium-end technologies, it has yet to make the leap into high-value-added exports, says Andrew Polk, Beijing-based head of China research at Medley Global Advisors, which advises hedge funds and other institutional investors.
"Maybe they can, but it remains an open question," he said. "The highest value-add is in intangible items like branding. Right now, there is not really a globally branded Chinese company that stands for high quality."
Yet even without its own Coca-Cola, Nike or Apple equivalent on the world stage, China's export juggernaut is winning by default as other major exporters fall behind.
"After having come this far I see no reason why China's march up the value-chain would suddenly stop," said James Laurenceson, deputy director of the Australia-China Relations Institute at the University of Technology in Sydney. "Chinese companies are competing outside their home base against the best in the world, and winning. This points to a hyper-competitive manufacturing sector, not one losing its shine."
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/...53-11e6-9781-49e591781754-20160906-story.html
Echo_419
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I concur, cheap labor is not going to benefit us anymore. Fortunately we are starting to improve, the process is slow though, lots of government programs are gonna improve our exports.Hopefully we will be able to fix this National embarrassment in the next few years.
Congrats to you between, China is now closer to taking it's rightful share in the global economy before the Europeans arrived and fucked up Asia.
@AndrewJin @cirr @Beast
cirr
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China's August trade data improves, pressure weakens
Source: Xinhua 2016-09-08 18:52:49
BEIJING, Sept. 8 (Xinhua) -- China's foreign trade improved markedly in August over stronger domestic and external demand, customs data showed Thursday.
Exports in yuan-denominated terms rose 5.9 percent year on year in August, accelerating from 2.9 percent in July. Imports increased 10.8 percent, compared with a decline of 5.7 percent, according to figures from the General Administration of Customs (GAC).
That led to a monthly trade surplus of 346 billion yuan (51.9 billion U.S. dollars), down 5.1 percent from a year earlier.
A leading index for export outlook rose 0.9 points from July to 34.7 points, signaling reduced pressure on export growth in the fourth quarter of 2016, said the GAC.
Exports turned out better than expected in August as overseas demand stabilized to some extent, investment bank China International Capital Corp. (CICC) said in a research note, citing rebounding manufacturing activity in the United Kingdom and improved job data in the United States.
In addition, depreciation of the yuan also helped lift exports, said Li Jian, a researcher with the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation.
"The slow recovery in foreign trade will extend over the rest of the year," he said.
In U.S. dollars, exports slipped 2.8 percent year on year, better than a 4-percent drop expected by the market and a 4.4-percent decline recorded in July.
Imports in dollar terms rose 1.5 percent year on year in August, the first positive reading in well over a year.
HSBC economist Julia Wang said the import growth was a big surprise, noting that the domestic demand rebound was likely a result of infrastructure investment growth over the past few months.
The improvement came after an official survey last week pointed to expanding factory activity due to a recovery in market demand and a rebound in production.
The purchasing managers' index (PMI) came in at 50.4 in August, rising from 49.9 in July and beating market expectation of 49.8, according to the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing.
Soft global demand and industrial overcapacity have weighed on China's economy in the past quarters, with GDP growing 6.7 percent in the second quarter of 2016, the lowest quarterly level since the global financial crisis in early 2009.
Policy makers have revved up infrastructure investment, encouraged innovation and pushed forward supply-side reform to sustain economic growth.
Wang expects fiscal policy to remain expansionary in the second half of 2016 and offset weakness elsewhere in the economy.
The trajectory of import growth and the shape of domestic demand will ultimately depend on the pace of fiscal expansion, Wang said.
Meanwhile, the CICC predicted both import and export growth to slow in September due to public holidays.
In the first eight months, foreign trade was down 1.8 percent from a year earlier, with exports dropping 1 percent and imports falling 2.9 percent, GAC data showed.
Trade surplus for the first eight months widened 5 percent from a year earlier to 2.31 trillion yuan.
Foreign trade with the European Union, China's biggest trade partner, climbed 3.5 percent year on year in the first eight months. Trade with the United States, China's second-biggest trade partner, fell 3.2 percent, and that with ASEAN, its third-largest trade partner, declined 1.1 percent.
In the same period, China's iron ore imports rose 9.3 percent by volume, while that of crude oil and coal surged 13.5 percent and 12.4 percent, respectively.
Source: Xinhua 2016-09-08 18:52:49
BEIJING, Sept. 8 (Xinhua) -- China's foreign trade improved markedly in August over stronger domestic and external demand, customs data showed Thursday.
Exports in yuan-denominated terms rose 5.9 percent year on year in August, accelerating from 2.9 percent in July. Imports increased 10.8 percent, compared with a decline of 5.7 percent, according to figures from the General Administration of Customs (GAC).
That led to a monthly trade surplus of 346 billion yuan (51.9 billion U.S. dollars), down 5.1 percent from a year earlier.
A leading index for export outlook rose 0.9 points from July to 34.7 points, signaling reduced pressure on export growth in the fourth quarter of 2016, said the GAC.
Exports turned out better than expected in August as overseas demand stabilized to some extent, investment bank China International Capital Corp. (CICC) said in a research note, citing rebounding manufacturing activity in the United Kingdom and improved job data in the United States.
In addition, depreciation of the yuan also helped lift exports, said Li Jian, a researcher with the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation.
"The slow recovery in foreign trade will extend over the rest of the year," he said.
In U.S. dollars, exports slipped 2.8 percent year on year, better than a 4-percent drop expected by the market and a 4.4-percent decline recorded in July.
Imports in dollar terms rose 1.5 percent year on year in August, the first positive reading in well over a year.
HSBC economist Julia Wang said the import growth was a big surprise, noting that the domestic demand rebound was likely a result of infrastructure investment growth over the past few months.
The improvement came after an official survey last week pointed to expanding factory activity due to a recovery in market demand and a rebound in production.
The purchasing managers' index (PMI) came in at 50.4 in August, rising from 49.9 in July and beating market expectation of 49.8, according to the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing.
Soft global demand and industrial overcapacity have weighed on China's economy in the past quarters, with GDP growing 6.7 percent in the second quarter of 2016, the lowest quarterly level since the global financial crisis in early 2009.
Policy makers have revved up infrastructure investment, encouraged innovation and pushed forward supply-side reform to sustain economic growth.
Wang expects fiscal policy to remain expansionary in the second half of 2016 and offset weakness elsewhere in the economy.
The trajectory of import growth and the shape of domestic demand will ultimately depend on the pace of fiscal expansion, Wang said.
Meanwhile, the CICC predicted both import and export growth to slow in September due to public holidays.
In the first eight months, foreign trade was down 1.8 percent from a year earlier, with exports dropping 1 percent and imports falling 2.9 percent, GAC data showed.
Trade surplus for the first eight months widened 5 percent from a year earlier to 2.31 trillion yuan.
Foreign trade with the European Union, China's biggest trade partner, climbed 3.5 percent year on year in the first eight months. Trade with the United States, China's second-biggest trade partner, fell 3.2 percent, and that with ASEAN, its third-largest trade partner, declined 1.1 percent.
In the same period, China's iron ore imports rose 9.3 percent by volume, while that of crude oil and coal surged 13.5 percent and 12.4 percent, respectively.
Echo_419
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Give Modi some time, he was elected in 2014 only
AndrewJin
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I hope you don't think the same as that liberal bussard....I concur, cheap labor is not going to benefit us anymore. Fortunately we are starting to improve, the process is slow though, lots of government programs are gonna improve our exports.Hopefully we will be able to fix this National embarrassment in the next few years.
Congrats to you between, China is now closer to taking it's rightful share in the global economy before the Europeans arrived and fucked up Asia.
@AndrewJin @cirr @Beast
His thoughts are dangerous....and will kill India's economy....
Probably Kongress-er.
He should be there for another one decade...
Or, make sure the policies stable....
Echo_419
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Relax, neither Bustard nor I am in the government so no chance of our policies being implemented in India, although I am a member of India's leading Right wing News Agency so I am able to influence government position on some matters. Come to think of it, a police state led by me will overtake China in 15 years, at max.
AndrewJin
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lol....police cannot do robots....
That will make you collapse like CCCP in 5 years back into several dozens of kingdoms.
And you need half a century to fix your education at least....
Bussard Ramjet
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Which right wing news agency?
Shotgunner51
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As I have calculated previously, trade surplus will maintain a rate of $600 billion per year. Bilateral Investment Treaties (BIT) should be closed ASAP between China and major trade partners, especially those economies in trade deficit and indebted externally.
It's good to see imports of commodities on the rise, measured in physical volumes, the more the better! China should further expedite investment on physical storages, say SPR, MCR, etc.
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Echo_419
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The Frustrated Indian
Bussard Ramjet
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TaiShang
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Exactly. Political stability is very important for investment with long term vision-planning.
Otherwise, the country will be vulnerable to short term, speculative investment.
