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China’s economy will not overtake the US until 2060, if ever

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China with aging manpower and spoiled youth will go Russian way in loosing edge in military and economy because of dictatorship, aging population and unskilled manpower.
Once again, PPP is worthless. Nominal GDP is what translates to real power.
PPP is worthless? :coffee:
055 60Billion RMB ($830 million)
9346751a5d03425f9ea9180ce1b2b6ab.jpeg


VS
LCS $430 million Junk that only last 13 years...
1920px-US_Navy_120109-O-ZZ999-001_The_littoral_combat_ship_Pre-Commissioning_Unit_%28PCU%29_Coronado_%28LCS_4%29_is_rolled-out_at_the_Austal_USA_assembly_bay.jpg


055 copy is plan to cost 3 billion. I bet it will not less than 4billion.

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China still grows, while US is in recession.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.6 percent in the third quarter of 2022 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP decreased 0.6 percent.



The US economy grew 2.6% in Q3. US GDP is now approaching $26T.
 
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The United States cannot maintain such high interest rates forever. When the United States stops raising interest rates and the exchange rate returns to normal, that is the moment when China's GDP exceeds that of the United States.

The US economy is actually declining due to interest rate hikes, while China's GDP in local currency is still growing normally.

The US was forced to raise interest rates in order to solve inflation. In fact, the time when China overtook the US was greatly advanced.


China's GDP will surpass that of the United States between 2027 and 2030.
 
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The United States cannot maintain such high interest rates forever. When the United States stops raising interest rates and the exchange rate returns to normal, that is the moment when China's GDP exceeds that of the United States.

The US economy is actually declining due to interest rate hikes, while China's GDP in local currency is still growing normally.

The US was forced to raise interest rates in order to solve inflation. In fact, the time when China overtook the US was greatly advanced.


China's GDP will surpass that of the United States between 2027 and 2030.

The US economy grew 2.6% in Q3, and near $26T in GDP.

With Chinas economic and demographic decline, it’s looking exceedingly unlikely China will surpass US GDP, if ever.
 
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What a crap post, it's not even worth refuting, lol, so US will keep raising interest rate and this super high inflation pushing the population into poverty and China will keep the covid lockdowns at least till 2060 and forever being stuck in this particularly lockdown induced low growth rate in recent months forever, what a crap..lol..who wrote this?
 
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China's growth is being represented by overall trade, exports, trade surplus, industrial, agricultural and manufacturing output. US' growth depends simply on money printing and inflation, and now they are bragging they are growing instead of entering recession. What average Americans really feel now, growing or struggling?
 
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The US economy grew 2.6% in Q3, and near $26T in GDP.

With Chinas economic and demographic decline, it’s looking exceedingly unlikely China will surpass US GDP, if ever.
In this special period (the US raises interest rates and China lowers interest rates), it is inappropriate for you to use USD GDP to calculate China's GDP growth. Because we all know that the exchange rate will return to normal sooner or later.

This year, China's GDP in local currency is expected to reach 120 trillion CNY, or 4.9% growth. The GDP of the United States is expected to reach 25 trillion dollars in 2022. CPI exceeds 8+%. In other words, the United States will actually experience a recession.




Now do you understand? Due to the exchange rate problem, America's GDP will become better this year. But in fact, China is still growing, while the United States has experienced a recession. When the exchange rate finally returns to normal, you will find that this year is actually a closer year for China and the United States.
 
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The US economy grew 2.6% in Q3, and near $26T in GDP.

With Chinas economic and demographic decline, it’s looking exceedingly unlikely China will surpass US GDP, if ever.

Actually, USA can write 5.5% or 10.9% of GDP growth.

The number is just based on need and political reasons.

The rest of the world will pay for it, as simple as that.

The faster China's economic growth, the faster USA's economic growth as well, and the poorer the rest of the world.

In this special period (the US raises interest rates and China lowers interest rates), it is inappropriate for you to use USD GDP to calculate China's GDP growth. Because we all know that the exchange rate will return to normal sooner or later.

This year, China's GDP in local currency is expected to reach 120 trillion CNY, or 4.9% growth. The GDP of the United States is expected to reach 25 trillion dollars in 2022. CPI exceeds 8+%. In other words, the United States will actually experience a recession.




Now do you understand? Due to the exchange rate problem, America's GDP will become better this year. But in fact, China is still growing, while the United States has experienced a recession. When the exchange rate finally returns to normal, you will find that this year is actually a closer year for China and the United States.

USA?

You mean the rest of the world, except USA.
 
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Actually, USA can write 5.5% or 10.9% of GDP growth.

The number is just based on need and political reasons.

The rest of the world will pay for it, as simple as that.

The faster China's economic growth, the faster USA's economic growth as well, and the poorer the rest of the world.



USA?

You mean the rest of the world, except USA.
The real problem for the United States is that although the CIA used the Ukrainian War to destroy Europe, the United States did not get all the benefits. European financial capital flows to the United States, but European industrial capital flows to China.

But only industrial capital can digest financial capital. The financial capital obtained by the United States cannot be transformed into wealth, but only into inflation.

And the number of people infected with COVID in the United States has exceeded 90 million, of which 20 million have long-term sequelae or COVID symptoms. This has led to a very low labor participation rate in the United States. So American inflation will last for a long time.
 
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Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.6 percent in the third quarter of 2022 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP decreased 0.6 percent.



The US economy grew 2.6% in Q3. US GDP is now approaching $26T.

Rogue nations have their own destiny. Their good time is very short. Non of the country has ever survived with dictatorial regime in human history. Foolish and cruel dictator is even more dangerous.
 
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As he embarks on a third term, Xi Jinping’s goal is to make China a mid-level developed country in the next decade, which implies that the economy will need to expand at a rate of around 5 per cent. But underlying trends — bad demographics, heavy debt and declining productivity growth — suggest the country’s overall growth potential is about half that rate.

The implications of China growing at 2.5 per cent have yet to be fully digested anywhere, including Beijing. For one thing, assuming that the US grows at 1.5 per cent, with similar rates of inflation and a stable exchange rate, China would not overtake America as the world’s largest economy until 2060, if ever.
https://www.ft.com/content/cff42bc4-f9e3-4f51-985a-86518934afbe

Growth in the long term depends on more workers using more capital, and using it more efficiently (productivity). China, with a shrinking population and declining productivity growth, has been growing by injecting more capital into the economy at an unsustainable rate.

China is now a middle-income country, a stage when many economies naturally start to slow given the higher base. Its per capita income is currently $12,500, one-fifth that of the US. There are 38 advanced economies today, and all of them grew past the $12,500 income level in the decades after the second world war — most quite gradually. Only 19 grew at 2.5 per cent or faster for the next 10 years, and did so with a boost from more workers; on average the working age population grew at 1.2 per cent a year. Only two (Lithuania and Latvia) had a shrinking workforce.

China is an outlier. It would be the first large middle-income country to sustain 2.5 per cent gross domestic product growth despite working-age population decline, which began in 2015. And in China this decline is precipitous, on track to contract at an annual rate of nearly 0.5 per cent in the coming decades. Then there’s the debt. In the 19 countries that sustained 2.5 per cent growth after reaching China’s current income level, debt (including government, households and businesses) averaged 170 per cent of GDP. None had debts nearly as high as China’s.

Before the 2008 crisis, China’s debts held steady at about 150 per cent of GDP; afterwards it began pumping out credit to boost growth, and debts spiked to 220 per cent of GDP by 2015. Debt binges normally lead to a sharp slowdown, and China’s economy did decelerate in the 2010s, but only from 10 per cent to 6 per cent — less dramatically than past patterns would predict.

China avoided a deeper slowdown thanks to a tech sector boom and, more importantly, by issuing more debt. Total debt is up to 275 per cent of GDP, and much of it funded investment in the property bubble, where all too much of it went to waste.
https://www.ft.com/content/cff42bc4-f9e3-4f51-985a-86518934afbe

Though capital — largely property investment — helped pump up GDP growth, productivity growth fell by half to 0.7 per cent last decade. The efficiency of capital collapsed. China now has to invest $8 to generate $1 of GDP growth, twice the level a decade ago, and the worst of any major economy.

In this situation, 2.5 per cent growth will be an achievement. Sustaining basic productivity growth of 0.7 per cent will barely offset population decline. To hit 5 per cent GDP growth, China would need capital growth rates near those of the 2010s. Most of that money went into physical infrastructure: roads, bridges and housing. Given the scale of the housing bust, it’s likely overall capital growth will fall back to about 2.5 per cent.

Of course, the consensus is that China can achieve whatever target the government sets, but consensus forecasts have fallen short of recognising the pace of China’s slowdown in recent years, including this one, when growth is likely to fall below 3 per cent. Around 2010, many prominent forecasters thought China’s economy was going to overtake the US’s in nominal terms by 2020.

By 2014, some economists were claiming that China already was the world’s largest economy in terms of purchasing power parity — a construct based on theoretical currency values with no meaning in the real world. These theoreticians argued that the yuan was grossly undervalued and bound to appreciate against the dollar, revealing the dominance of China’s economy.
Instead, the Chinese currency depreciated, and its economy is still a third smaller than the US’s in nominal terms. If anything, 2.5 per cent is an optimistic forecast that plays down the risks to growth, including growing tensions between China and its major trade partners, growing government interference in the most productive private sector — technology — and mounting concerns about the debt load.

China at 2.5 per cent growth has major implications for its ambitions as an economic, diplomatic and military superpower. A lesser China is more likely than the world yet realises.


China will overtake USA sometime this century. I expect it in 2040-2050 unless we cleanup our act

The real problem for the United States is that although the CIA used the Ukrainian War to destroy Europe, the United States did not get all the benefits. European financial capital flows to the United States, but European industrial capital flows to China.

But only industrial capital can digest financial capital. The financial capital obtained by the United States cannot be transformed into wealth, but only into inflation.

And the number of people infected with COVID in the United States has exceeded 90 million, of which 20 million have long-term sequelae or COVID symptoms. This has led to a very low labor participation rate in the United States. So American inflation will last for a long time.

20 million impaired by Covid - that is 1/16 Americans. I do not see that
 
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US GDP growth a 'head fake' number, Larry Kudlow says: 'Take this with a grain of salt'​

US GDP grew 2.6% in the third quarter but recession fears linger amid sky-high inflation​


By FOX Business Staff FOXBusiness
Published October 27, 2022 12:11pm EDT

 
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