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China’s Economy Showed Steady Growth In the First Quarter of 2015

AndrewJin

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National Bureau of Statistics of China
15 April 2015
Since the beginning of 2015, in face with complicated international situation and downward pressure of domestic economic development, the Central Party Committee and the State Council adhered to the general tone of “moving forward while maintaining stability”, played a leading role in the New Normal, focused on improving efficiency, gave prominence to structural adjustment, deepened the reform and opening up, vitalized the market and improved people’s livelihood. As a result, the national economy had a smooth development with restructuring advancing steadily and new impetus showing momentum.
According to the preliminary estimation, the gross domestic product (GDP) of China in the first quarter of this year was 14,066.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.0 percent. The value added of the primary industry was 777.0 billion yuan, up by 3.2 percent year-on-year; that of the secondary industry was 6,029.2 billion yuan, up by 6.4 percent; and that of the tertiary industry was 7,260.5 billion yuan, up by 7.9 percent. The gross domestic product of the first quarter went up by 1.3 percent against the previous quarter.

1. Agricultural Production Remained Stable.

According to the planting intention survey conducted among more than 110 thousand rural households, the planting area for rice would go up by 0.2 percent; wheat grew by 0.7 percent; corn up by 1.9 percent and cotton down by 11.2 percent. Currently, the growth of seedling was normal in main producing area. In the first quarter of this year, the total output of pork, beef, mutton and poultry reached 23.15 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4 percent. The output of pork was 15.57 million tons, down by 3.1 percent.

2. Industrial Production Growth Dropped Slightly.

In the first quarter, the value added at comparable prices of the industrial enterprises above designated size was up by 6.4 percent year-on-year. An analysis on different types of enterprises showed that the value added growth of state holding enterprises went up by 1.7 percent; collective enterprises up by 2.4 percent; share-holding enterprises up by 7.4 percent; and a 4.3 percent growth for enterprises funded by foreign investors or investors from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan provinces. The value added growth for mining industry was up by 3.2 percent year-on-year; manufacturing up by 7.2 percent and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water up by 2.3 percent. Out of the 564 kinds of industrial products, 333 kinds registered year-on-year increases in output. In the first quarter, the sales ratio of industrial enterprises above designated size was 97.2 percent. The export delivery value of the industrial enterprises above designated size reached 2,628.7 billion yuan, up by 2.9 percent. In March, the total value added of the industrial enterprises above designated size was up by 5.6 percent year-on-year, or 0.25 percent month-on-month.

In the first two months of this year, the profits made by industrial enterprises above designated size stood at 745.2 billion yuan, down by 4.2 percent year-on-year. The costs for per-hundred-yuan turnover of primary activities of the industrial enterprises above designated size reached 85.55 yuan. The profit rate of industrial enterprises above designated size from their primary activities was 4.9 percent.

3. The Growth of Investment in Fixed Assets Slowed Down to Some Extent.

In the first quarter of 2015, the investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) was 7,751.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 13.5 percent, or a real growth of 14.5 percent. Of this total, the fixed assets investment of state holding enterprises reached 2,361.1 billion yuan, an increase of 14.4 percent; private investment reached 5,034.9 billion yuan, up by 13.6 percent, accounting for 65 percent of the total investment. The investment in the primary industry reached 155.3 billion yuan, up by 32.8 percent year-on-year; that in the secondary industry was 3,136.1 billion yuan, up by 11.0 percent; and that in the tertiary industry was 4,459.7 billion yuan, up by 14.7 percent. The amount in place for investment in the first quarter of 2015 was 10,267.2 billion yuan, up by 6.8 percent. Specifically, the government budgetary funds went up by 11.0 percent, domestic loans dropped by 3.7 percent, self-raising funds increased by 11.3 percent and foreign investment was down by 33.5 percent. The total planned investment in newly-started projects was 5,837.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.1 percent. In March, the investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) went up by 1.04 percent month-on-month.

In the first quarter of 2015, the total investment in real estate development was 1,665.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 8.5 percent, or a real growth of 9.5 percent. Of this total, the investment in residential buildings went up by 5.9 percent. Floor space of houses newly started in the first quarter was 237.24 million square meters, down by 18.4 percent. Specifically, the floor space of residential buildings started in the first quarter dropped by 20.9 percent. The floor space of commercial buildings sold reached 182.54 million square meters, down by 9.2 percent. Of this total, that of residential buildings went down by 9.8 percent. The sales of commercial buildings in the first quarter were 1,202.3 billion yuan, down by 9.3 percent. Of this total, that of residential buildings was down by 9.1 percent. In the first quarter of this year, the land space purchased by real estate development enterprises was 40.51 million square meters, down by 32.4 percent. By the end of March, the floor space of commercial buildings for sale reached 649.98 million square meters, up by 24.6 percent. The actual funds for real estate development enterprises in the first quarter reached 2,789.2 billion yuan, down by 2.9 percent.

4. Market Sales Kept Steady Growth.

In the first quarter of 2015, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 7,071.5 billion yuan, an increase of 10.6 percent (a real growth of 10.8 percent after deducting price factors). Specifically, the retail sales of the units above designated size stood at 3,247.2 billion yuan, up by 7.8 percent. Analyzed by different areas, the retail sales in urban areas reached 6,070.9 billion yuan, up by 10.4 percent, and that in rural areas stood at 1,000.7 billion yuan, up by 11.6 percent. Grouped by consumption patterns, the total income of catering industry was 745.8 billion yuan, up by 11.3 percent year-on-year; and retail sales of goods was 6,325.7 billion yuan, up by 10.5 percent. In particular, the retail sales of units above designated size reached 3,053.4 billion yuan, up by 7.8 percent. In March, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 10.2 percent year-on-year (a real growth of 10.2 percent after deducting price factors), or 0.71 percent month-on-month.
In the first quarter of 2015, the online retail sales of goods and services reached 760.7 billion yuan, grew by 41.3 percent year-on-year. Specifically, the online retail sales of goods registered 631.0 billion yuan, up by 41.0 percent, accounting for 8.9 percent of the total retail sales of consumer goods. The online retail sales of services were 129.7 billion yuan, up by 43.0 percent.

5. Trade Surplus Increased Significantly.

The total value of imports and exports in the first quarter of 2015 was 5,543.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.0 percent. The total value of exports was 3,149.3 billion yuan, grew by 4.9 percent; and that of imports was 2,394.0 billion yuan, down by 17.3 percent. The trade surplus was 755.3 billion yuan. In March, the total value of imports and exports was 1,755.5 billion yuan, down by 13.5 percent year-on-year. The total value of exports was 886.8 billion yuan, down by 14.6 percent; and that of imports was 868.7 billion yuan, down by 12.3 percent.

6. Consumer Price Remained at a Low Level.

In the first quarter of 2015, the consumer price went up by 1.2 percent year-on-year. Specifically, the price went up by 1.2 percent in cities and 1.0 percent in rural areas. Grouped by commodity categories, prices for food grew by 1.9 percent; tobacco, liquor and articles dropped by 0.5 percent; clothing up by 2.9 percent; household facilities, articles and maintenance services up by 1.2 percent; health care and personal articles grew by 1.7 percent; transportation and communication decreased by 1.8 percent; recreation, education, culture articles and services grew by 1.2 percent; and housing went up by 0.7 percent. In terms of food prices, that for grain grew up by 2.8 percent, oil or fat down by 5.1 percent, pork down by 1.7 percent and fresh vegetables up by 1.4 percent. In March, the consumer prices went up by 1.4 percent year-on-year, or down by 0.5 percent month-on-month. In the first quarter, the producer prices for industrial products dropped by 4.6 percent. In March, the price dropped by 4.6 percent year-on-year, or 0.1 percent month-on-month. In the first quarter, the purchasing price for industrial producers was down by 5.6 percent year-on-year. In March, the price was down by 5.7 percent year-on-year, or 0.3 percent month-on-month.

7. Residents’ Income Continued to Increase.

Based on the integrated household survey, in the first quarter of 2015, the national per capita disposable income was 6,087 yuan, a nominal growth of 9.4 percent, or a real increase of 8.1 percent after deducting price factors. In terms of permanent residence, the per capita disposable income of urban households was 8,572 yuan, a nominal growth of 8.3 percent, or a real growth of 7.0 percent. The per capita disposable income of rural residents was 3,279 yuan, up by 10.0 percent nominally, or 8.9 percent in real terms. The median of national per capita disposable income was 5,216 yuan, a nominal increase of 11.1 percent. By the end of February, the number of rural migrant workers was 163.31 million, decreased by 6.02 million, down by 3.6 percent. The average monthly income of migrant workers was 3,000 yuan, up by 11.9 percent year-on-year.

8. Structural Adjustment Achieved Steady Progress.

The industrial structure was optimized. In the first quarter, the value added of the tertiary industry accounted for 51.6 percent of the GDP, which was 1.8 percentage points higher as compared with that in the same period of last year and 8.7 percentage points higher than that of the secondary industry. Industrial innovation and upgrading was accelerating. In the first quarter, the value added growth for high tech industry was up by 11.4 percent year-on-year, equipment manufacturing industry went up by 7.7 percent, which were respectively 5.0 percentage points and 1.3 percentage points higher than that of the industrial enterprises above designated size. The income gap between urban and rural households was further narrowed. In the first quarter, the real growth of per capita disposable income of rural households was 1.9 percentage points higher than that of urban households. The per capita disposable income of urban households was 2.61 times that of rural households, a decrease of 0.05 as compared with the same period of the previous year. Energy conservation and consumption reduction continued to make new achievements. In the first quarter, unit energy consumption against GDP decreased by 5.6 percent year-on-year.

9. Money Supply Kept a Steady Growth.
By the end of March, the balance of broad money (M2) was 127.53 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 11.6 percent; the balance of narrow money (M1) was 33.72 trillion yuan, up by 2.9 percent; and the balance of cash in circulation (M0) was 6.2 trillion yuan, up by 6.2 percent. The amount of outstanding loans by the end of March was 85.91 trillion yuan, while the amount of outstanding deposits was 124.89 trillion yuan. In the first quarter, the newly increased loans reached 3.68 trillion yuan, an increase of 601.8 billion yuan; the newly increased deposits were 4.15 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.64 trillion yuan year-on-year. In the first quarter, the total social financing reached 4.61 trillion yuan, or a decrease of 894.9 billion yuan year-on-year.

As a whole, the national economy in the first quarter of 2015 enjoyed steady development. Despite the slowing down of economic growth, employment, consumer price and market expectation remained stable. Positive factors were accumulating with restructuring work advancing steadily, transformation and upgrading showing good momentum, and new impetus experiencing rapid development. In the future, in accordance with the decisions and arrangements by the Central Party Committee and the State Council, we must place priority on stabilizing economic growth, ensuring employment and improving efficiency. We must proceed with confidence and make our best efforts to promote economic development, deepen reform and opening up, and motivate innovation to a higher degree so as to ensure a sustained and sound development of the national economy.
 
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I thought 2015 was gonna be the first year in which GDP would be calculated based on SNA 2008。
 
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Higher than I expected,considering the days when China was a massive construction site has already gone.
Slipping under 7% is inevitable,and will happen soon.
The high income growth number is a very good sign,although I didn‘t get a raise :sick:
I need a raise..
 
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Higher than I expected,considering the days when China was a massive construction site has already gone.
Slipping under 7% is inevitable,and will happen soon.
The high income growth number is a very good sign,although I didn‘t get a raise :sick:
I need a raise..
Yes, under 7 is not horrifying. Growth in tertiary sector is healthy.
 
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China is growing 7% on a $10 trillion economy.

That's a much bigger impact than growing 10% to a $2 trillion economy.

There are a bunch of African countries that are growing 15% per year but their economies are tiny.

China is still the biggest contributer to global growth just because of the sheer size of the economy and the high growth speed. 7% growth is a very fast rate. Heck, even 4% growth is fast for a $10 trillion economy.

China's growth is becoming more efficient as the job creating service sector is the biggest growth contributer and the low-cost inefficient industries are being replaced by high-end manufacturing. That process that started and over the next 15 years you will see the full transformed Chinese economy.
 
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China is growing 7% on a $10 trillion economy.

That's a much bigger impact than growing 10% to a $2 trillion economy.

There are a bunch of African countries that are growing 15% per year but their economies are tiny.

China is still the biggest contributer to global growth just because of the sheer size of the economy and the high growth speed. 7% growth is a very fast rate. Heck, even 4% growth is fast for a $10 trillion economy.

China's growth is becoming more efficient as the job creating service sector is the biggest growth contributer and the low-cost inefficient industries are being replaced by high-end manufacturing. That process that started and over the next 15 years you will see the full transformed Chinese economy.
Exactly. I am traveling in Anhui, and I see a booming tourist market. The service sector is growing dramatically. People are willing to spend money.
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ImageUploadedByDefence.pk1429080981.695778.jpg
 
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Our China economy growth will slow down to 5~6%, not easily to maintain current 7% growth.

Except crazy BeiJing/ShangHai/ShenZhen/GuangZhou 1st-tier super-developed cities ... our Chinese families in rest city/town still not rich as same as we thought ... Chinese domestic purchasing power not strong yet & China still lack famous luxury goods makers ... even the rich who living in BeiJing/ShangHai/ShenZhen/GuangZhou buying whole world luxury from foreign nations, nothing can contribute to China true GDP.

I have seen the risk inside China, fvcking CCP's "The Upgrade Of Industries" FAILED !!! ... there's no strong domestic high-tech companies like Intel/ Microsofe/ Apple/ IBM/ Oracle/ Coca-Cola/ Pepsi/ Hollywood etc ... right now China economy still strongly depend on investments in property (local governments selling more lands & building more empty houses for sell, even over 10,000~20,000 RMB/m2). The Chinese family in undeveloped city not rich yet, but must to enjoy higher living cost.

My point, is there China also meets conomic growth bottleneck. Greeds of our government on the real estate will make China economy more unhealthy & slow down, waste too much hot money on the wrong development, not on true high-tech fields, not develop some famous high-tech companies like U.S/Japan did in 1980s.

This is a big risk when China export business decreasing or China Property price going down ... BeiJing should consider to make most Chinese families get rich (not a few rich-class) and increase domestic purchasing power.

If hundred billions USD of hot money still invest to China real estate, if the legend of a random house can make a Chinese millionaire still exists ... the China economy will die, and CCP will die too, only leave three things: 1. Expensive house price 2. Corrupted Officers 3. Economy Growth falling down ... until to the end.

Later China won't maintain 7% economic growth ... my words.
 
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Yes, a new way of estimating GDP already used by the US, Japan and many so-called advanced economies.

By some claculation, the adoption of SNA 2008 will add 2-3 trillion USD to China's GDP.
Is this method more accurate?
 
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According to the preliminary estimation, the gross domestic product (GDP) of China in the first quarter of this year was 14,066.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.0 percent. The value added of the primary industry was 777.0 billion yuan, up by 3.2 percent year-on-year; that of the secondary industry was 6,029.2 billion yuan, up by 6.4 percent; and that of the tertiary industry was 7,260.5 billion yuan, up by 7.9 percent. The gross domestic product of the first quarter went up by 1.3 percent against the previous quarter.

QQ截图20150415151938.jpg


A brief forecast of Chinese economy 2015. The truth is the downward trend is already there, we have to adjust to the new norm. Luckily, there is no severe fluctuations like that happened in South America or Southeast Asia. CPC has managed to promote a smooth transition to domestic demand and capital-driven-commodity economy.

QQ截图20150415153526.jpg


If China can still maintain like 7% in next decade, it is still the most promising emerging market.

By some claculation, the adoption of SNA 2008 will add 2-3 trillion USD to China's GDP.

2-3 trillion dollar? That's like 15 trillion yuan, 1/4 of current economy, it's overrated to some extent.
 
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CCP's "The Upgrade Of Industries" FAILED !!!
well there are a few areas to be optimistic about at least,just copy/paste some local sources

我认为所谓的产业升级就是这样,小部分龙头企业升级了,绝大部分中小企业跟不上脚步被抛弃了。
东莞、苏州、温州的代工厂自然是被抛弃的典型样本,那些缺乏技术门槛的纺织五金山寨企业也大致如此,随着时间的逝去,他们中绝大部分终将化为灰烬。媒体已经渲染过很多,我就没必要重复了。
这里说说几个正在升级中的行业龙头,给大家一点光明吧。
1,通信设备行业。
华为科技。2012-2014年利润154亿元、210亿元、340亿元。
2014年表现:在运营商业务方面,全球建成154张4G网络,份额占比46% 。在企业业务方面,同比增长27%,为世界500强中的106家企业提供解决方案;在消费者业务方面,智能手机品牌全球知名度由原来的52%上升至65%。mate7手机在中高端市场打开局面,海思处理器麒麟920挺进八核领域。
升级之道:高研发投入,狼性执行力,正面强攻,隐然已有中国版蓝色巨人的气势。哦,华为的图腾是红色的。
2,电脑IT行业。
联想电脑。2012-2014年利润36亿元、49亿元、前三季度45亿元。
2014年表现:两笔并购,其一收购摩托罗拉移动业务,其二收购IBM X86服务器业务。
升级之道:金融并购思路,做大规模,降低成本。联想接盘侠的名声已经蜚声海外,不过惠普当年不也是通过接盘才做成PC老大的么?
3,家电行业。
格力电器。2012-2014年利润87亿元、108亿元、141亿元。
美的电器。2012-2014年利润34亿元、53亿元、100亿元。
2014年表现:美的自从2011年开始引入机器人,截至2014年底已经累计拥有800台注塑、焊接、装配和搬运机器人,并以每年30%的速度增长。因为机器人的大规模引入,2014年美的经历了一次大规模裁员。格力电器也提出将在2015年实现70%的自动化生产率替换。
升级之道:大力引进机器人生产设备,减员增效,提升效率。2014年,中国已经成为全球最大的工业机器人市场,机器换人的节奏越来越快。
4,高铁行业。
中车集团。2012-2014年利润73(南车40+北车33)亿元、82亿元、前三季度80亿元。
2014年表现:新签海外合同60亿美金,同比增长60%,首次进入发达国家市场,中标美国波士顿284辆地铁,金额35亿元。政府主导南北车合并,减少内耗。
升级之道:央企合并,一致对外。规模是竞争力提升的重要手段,接下来我们会看到越来越多的央企加法,比如核电,电信,军工等等。
5,汽车行业。
长城汽车。2012-2014年利润57亿元、82亿元、80亿元。
长安汽车。2012-2014年利润14亿元、35亿元、78亿元。
2014年表现:长城哈弗H6占据SUV销量第一宝座,月销量突破3万辆,高档车H9表现可圈可点。长安凭借欧洲研发中心的靓丽外形设计,CS系列和逸动系列两大产品线齐头并进,销量同比增长39%。2014年的自主品牌在SUV领域成功突破50%的份额红线。
升级之道:SUV战略。自主品牌已经找到了差异化的生存之道,避开陷入停滞的轿车市场,全力进军新兴的SUV蓝海。一旦在这个新领域获得品牌认同,向高端成长的天花板将会被打开。
6,工程机械行业。
中联重科。2012-2014年利润73亿元、38亿元、预计10亿元。
三一重工。2012-2014年利润56亿元、29亿元、预计10亿元。
2014年表现:国内随着房地产投资的下滑,收入占比下降,三一的对策是全力拓展海外市场,海外收入占比提升到30%。随着习大一带一路战略的实施,三一的海外收入将在2015年有大的提升。中联重科则先后收购荷兰raxtar和奇瑞重工,向升降机和农业设备领域扩张。
升级之道:海外扩张+多元化扩张。阵痛中的行业龙头,正在加速突围,一带一路战略会帮助他们在发展中市场建立势力范围。这种现象,可以参考三十年前,日本在亚洲推动雁行战略,相关优势产业得以在东南亚形成垄断性的影响力。
7,动力机械行业。
潍柴动力。2012-2014年利润29亿元、35亿元、前三季度44亿元。
2014年表现:商用柴油发动机市占率长期第一,并且在此基础上一步步向变速器、驱动桥、牵引车动力系统总成发展。技术虽然不算最先进,但胜在皮实,耐用,性价比无敌,在此基础上发展起来的中国商用车阵营开始了在发展中市场的大规模入侵。
升级之道:性价比为王。潍柴其实是中国重工业的一个缩影,经过长时间的积累,逐渐在利润相对丰厚的中档市场站稳了脚跟。只要在所有领域达到这个水平,可保中国的人均GDP站上2万美元的水平线。
8,安防设备行业。
海康威视。2012-2014年利润21亿元、30亿元、47亿元。
2014年表现:抓住了由SOC编码为核心到DSP编码为核心、嵌入式DVR、摄像机等几个关键的变化契机,是全球第一家把H.264编码算法引进了监控领域的公司。此后,借助模拟技术逐步被数字技术取代,以及高清、智能技术发展之机,公司抢在第一时间推出高清数字设备。2011年,率先推出全线高清产品,2014年,发布4K产品。海康通过把握这些市场契机一举成为行业应用的引导者。目前,海康威视海外销售占总体营收规模近1/3,DVR产品连续4年保持全球市场占有率第一位。
升级之道:在一个新兴行业中,做到中国第一,就是全球第一。中国的市场规模优势,极大的加速了新兴行业的成长速度,只要做到中国领先,就意味着你可以碾压世界上的所有竞争对手。
9,化工业。
万华化学。2012-2014年利润23亿元、28亿元、上半年14亿元。
2014年表现:
万华是国内唯一一家掌握了异氰酸酯MDI技术的企业(世界上共有六家企业掌握这项技术),并且实现了全产业链一体化的MDI生产。目前,万华的收入与毛利约80%都来自于MDI。2001年万华上市时,MDI产量仅有1.5万吨。之后其技术不断进步,产能持续扩张,2007年,由于宁波万华20万吨MDI一次性试车成功,被授予国家科学技术进步一等奖。2014年底,公司取得全球MDI最大寡头地位,开始发力综合性化学领域:在建烟台八角工业园、宁波、珠海和成都四个基地,布局MDI一体化、环氧丙烷及丙烯酸酯一体化、水性涂料和特种化学品三大产业,向世界级综合性化工巨头成长。
升级之道:垂直一体化,垄断某个细分行业的上下游产业链,获得超额利润。在传统的化工业,由于技术成熟,竞争激烈,普遍处于价格战状态,而万华已经走出了这个泥淖。
10,电气设备行业。
上海电气。2012-2014年利润27亿元、24亿元、前三季20亿元。
2014年表现:上海电气作为全球最大的火力发电设备供应商,其核电产品也在国内市场占有率第一;最近自主开发成功的“二次再热”技术,有望再次刷新全球效率最高煤电厂纪录;根据在手订单,明年风电业务将向百亿元规模发展。上海电气在太阳能热发电工程、分布式能源等领域也在大力拓展,去年研发费用接近40亿元。
升级之道:引进,吸收,出口。在能源设备领域,上海电气正在试图打造中国版西门子的地位。
11,平板液晶行业。
京东方。2012-2014年利润2.5亿元、23亿元、上半年10亿元。
2014年表现:累计直接融资超过700亿元,不断建线扩张,意欲重构全球显示产业的版图,目前京东方毛利率、申请专利数以及智能手机和平板电脑等高性能显示屏市占率均排名全球第一,逐渐瓦解了三星LG对该行业的垄断优势。
升级之道:国家信用背书,全力金融支持。在一个战略性资金密集型行业,得到国家的支持,几乎就意味着立于了不败之地,没有哪个竞争对手能够抗得住连年不断的价格战和亏损。一旦对手都败下阵来,自然是剩者为王。
12,日化行业。
云南白药。2012-2014年利润15亿元、23亿元、前三季度19亿元。
2014年表现:白药牙膏在外资盘踞的中高端牙膏市场闯出一片天地,行业份额前三。收购清逸堂,进军卫生巾领域。
升级之道:传统资源,老树发新芽。在日化、食品行业,一些老品牌通过对资源的重新开发,准确定位,迎来了事业的又一春,比如王老吉、上海家化的佰草集,都是如此。由于有历史的积淀,在品牌的塑造上可以站在一个更高的起点,突破了外资品牌的心理优势。
13,海工设备行业。
中集集团。2012-2014年利润19亿元、21亿元、前三季度16亿元。
2014年表现:近几年来,从集装箱行业第一,到海洋钻井平台行业第一,到LNG专用车辆、机场设备、消防车,一步一个脚印,不断扩大业务范围。今年最大的突破,就是海工设备。2008年的时候,中集收购了负债累累的烟台来福士,此后进一步收购瑞典的海工设计公司bassoe technology,通过资源的整合,连续7年累计亏损30亿元的坚持之后,终于迎来了2014年的盈利。目前半潜式钻井平台手持订单30亿美元,全球市场占有率20%左右。
升级之道:资源整合,步步为营,成为每一个子行业的全球第一。中集的目标是成为中国的“联合技术”。
14,玻璃行业。
福耀玻璃。2012-2014年利润15亿元、19亿元、22亿元。
2014年表现:全球第二的汽车玻璃供应商,垄断国产车玻璃70%份额,宾利、路虎等高档车同样在用。同时还是高铁玻璃供应商,在防弹玻璃市场占有40%份额。福耀1991年开始成为一汽解放卡车的供应商,1994年成为捷达的供应商,之后逐步承包了大众车的玻璃供货,2006年成为大众的全球A级供应商,2014在美国投资设厂,成为全球化的典范。
升级之道:在跨国公司产业链里一步步打怪升级,依靠质量、成本、专注,成为行业龙头。这是中国汽车产业链中成长起来的第一家顶级跨国巨头。
15,客车行业。
宇通客车。2012-2014年利润15亿元、18亿元、前三季度11亿元。
2014年表现:全球最大客车企业,市场占有率约10%,在拉美的出口额有10亿美元。7月份与委内瑞拉签订了1500辆客车订单。拥有6000平米的客车实验中心,在客车电动化的发展上领先同行。
升级之道:客车的技术含量在汽车行业中应该是最低的,也是第一个被中国企业突破天花板的汽车子行业。只要是追求性价比,并且品牌因素不太被关注的产品,很快都会成为中国企业的囊中之物。
16,电子设备行业。
歌尔声学。2012-2014年利润9亿元、13亿元、17亿元。
欧菲光。2012-2014年利润3亿元、5亿元、7亿元。
2014年表现:一个是全球最大的手机电声零部件企业,一个是全球最大的手机触摸屏零部件企业。近年随着智能手机产业链向中国的转移,获得了令人妒忌的成功。歌尔声学正在向汽车音响、MEMS传感器方向发展,欧菲光则向手机摄像头、指纹识别等领域扩张。与之形成对比的是,曾经的触摸屏龙头、苹果供应商台湾胜华最终败下阵来,宣布破产。
升级之道:把握机遇,快速反应,替换海外的电子设备供应链。电子工业的更新换代速度非常快,每一次换代,就意味着新技术的诞生,旧技术的淘汰,给予了新人无限的进入机会。电子工业也非常讲究产业链的配合,随着智能手机产业的转移,相当数量的本土电子零部件企业也将会成长起来。
17,高分子材料行业
康得新。2012-2014年利润4亿元、7亿元、11亿元。
2014年表现:由预涂膜起家,经过十来年发展,目前已经成为高分子膜行业的巨头,国内手机电视领域的膜应用已经被他垄断了,发展的方向是汽车窗膜、碳纤维和石墨烯,这家企业拥有技术和规模结合的全产业链优势,切入一个相关领域,很快就能做到老大。
升级之道:在新兴行业中拥有技术优势,再结合中国的市场机会,基本上就无敌了。中国版的“3M”。
18,制药行业。
天士力制药。2012-2014年利润7亿元、11亿元、前三季度11亿元。
2014年表现:国内制药业龙头,主打产品复方丹参滴丸正在进行FDA III期临床试验,预计2016年年底试验结束,到时复方丹参滴丸将成为第一例获得美国FDA认证的复方中药。新品丹参多酚酸、重组尿激酶陆续推出。
升级之道:天士力从中药现代化起家,逐渐向生物制药发展,在心血管和糖尿病药领域的研发创新上有独特的竞争力。
 
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Is this method more accurate?

It is supposed to be.

There are quite a few items which are either totally omitted from or drastically under-estimated in the calculation of Chinese GDP.

R & D expenditure is a case in point. Capitalization of this expense inflates the GDP by about 2%.

Housing expenditure for owner-occupiers, which is currently cost-based but is calculated at market prices in SNA 2008, is another example.

Using the cost basis, the monthly "rental" for a family living in a flat bought for, say, 500000 yuan 10 years ago, is 595(=500000/70/12) yuan, while the same property can easily command a market rental of 8000 yuan today.

View attachment 214981

A brief forecast of Chinese economy 2015. The truth is the downward trend is already there, we have to adjust to the new norm. Luckily, there is no severe fluctuations like that happened in South America or Southeast Asia. CPC has managed to promote a smooth transition to domestic demand and capital-driven-commodity economy.

View attachment 214983

If China can still maintain like 7% in next decade, it is still the most promising emerging market.



2-3 trillion dollar? That's like 15 trillion yuan, 1/4 of current economy, it's overrated to some extent.

13-14 trillion in 2015 by SNA 2008.

and that's not taking into account the huge underground economy, which as a percentage of GDP is far far larger in China than in the US.
 
. .
well there are a few areas to be optimistic about at least,just copy/paste some local sources

我认为所谓的产业升级就是这样,小部分龙头企业升级了,绝大部分中小企业跟不上脚步被抛弃了。
东莞、苏州、温州的代工厂自然是被抛弃的典型样本,那些缺乏技术门槛的纺织五金山寨企业也大致如此,随着时间的逝去,他们中绝大部分终将化为灰烬。媒体已经渲染过很多,我就没必要重复了。
这里说说几个正在升级中的行业龙头,给大家一点光明吧。
1,通信设备行业。
华为科技。2012-2014年利润154亿元、210亿元、340亿元。
2014年表现:在运营商业务方面,全球建成154张4G网络,份额占比46% 。在企业业务方面,同比增长27%,为世界500强中的106家企业提供解决方案;在消费者业务方面,智能手机品牌全球知名度由原来的52%上升至65%。mate7手机在中高端市场打开局面,海思处理器麒麟920挺进八核领域。
升级之道:高研发投入,狼性执行力,正面强攻,隐然已有中国版蓝色巨人的气势。哦,华为的图腾是红色的。
2,电脑IT行业。
联想电脑。2012-2014年利润36亿元、49亿元、前三季度45亿元。
2014年表现:两笔并购,其一收购摩托罗拉移动业务,其二收购IBM X86服务器业务。
升级之道:金融并购思路,做大规模,降低成本。联想接盘侠的名声已经蜚声海外,不过惠普当年不也是通过接盘才做成PC老大的么?
3,家电行业。
格力电器。2012-2014年利润87亿元、108亿元、141亿元。
美的电器。2012-2014年利润34亿元、53亿元、100亿元。
2014年表现:美的自从2011年开始引入机器人,截至2014年底已经累计拥有800台注塑、焊接、装配和搬运机器人,并以每年30%的速度增长。因为机器人的大规模引入,2014年美的经历了一次大规模裁员。格力电器也提出将在2015年实现70%的自动化生产率替换。
升级之道:大力引进机器人生产设备,减员增效,提升效率。2014年,中国已经成为全球最大的工业机器人市场,机器换人的节奏越来越快。
4,高铁行业。
中车集团。2012-2014年利润73(南车40+北车33)亿元、82亿元、前三季度80亿元。
2014年表现:新签海外合同60亿美金,同比增长60%,首次进入发达国家市场,中标美国波士顿284辆地铁,金额35亿元。政府主导南北车合并,减少内耗。
升级之道:央企合并,一致对外。规模是竞争力提升的重要手段,接下来我们会看到越来越多的央企加法,比如核电,电信,军工等等。
5,汽车行业。
长城汽车。2012-2014年利润57亿元、82亿元、80亿元。
长安汽车。2012-2014年利润14亿元、35亿元、78亿元。
2014年表现:长城哈弗H6占据SUV销量第一宝座,月销量突破3万辆,高档车H9表现可圈可点。长安凭借欧洲研发中心的靓丽外形设计,CS系列和逸动系列两大产品线齐头并进,销量同比增长39%。2014年的自主品牌在SUV领域成功突破50%的份额红线。
升级之道:SUV战略。自主品牌已经找到了差异化的生存之道,避开陷入停滞的轿车市场,全力进军新兴的SUV蓝海。一旦在这个新领域获得品牌认同,向高端成长的天花板将会被打开。
6,工程机械行业。
中联重科。2012-2014年利润73亿元、38亿元、预计10亿元。
三一重工。2012-2014年利润56亿元、29亿元、预计10亿元。
2014年表现:国内随着房地产投资的下滑,收入占比下降,三一的对策是全力拓展海外市场,海外收入占比提升到30%。随着习大一带一路战略的实施,三一的海外收入将在2015年有大的提升。中联重科则先后收购荷兰raxtar和奇瑞重工,向升降机和农业设备领域扩张。
升级之道:海外扩张+多元化扩张。阵痛中的行业龙头,正在加速突围,一带一路战略会帮助他们在发展中市场建立势力范围。这种现象,可以参考三十年前,日本在亚洲推动雁行战略,相关优势产业得以在东南亚形成垄断性的影响力。
7,动力机械行业。
潍柴动力。2012-2014年利润29亿元、35亿元、前三季度44亿元。
2014年表现:商用柴油发动机市占率长期第一,并且在此基础上一步步向变速器、驱动桥、牵引车动力系统总成发展。技术虽然不算最先进,但胜在皮实,耐用,性价比无敌,在此基础上发展起来的中国商用车阵营开始了在发展中市场的大规模入侵。
升级之道:性价比为王。潍柴其实是中国重工业的一个缩影,经过长时间的积累,逐渐在利润相对丰厚的中档市场站稳了脚跟。只要在所有领域达到这个水平,可保中国的人均GDP站上2万美元的水平线。
8,安防设备行业。
海康威视。2012-2014年利润21亿元、30亿元、47亿元。
2014年表现:抓住了由SOC编码为核心到DSP编码为核心、嵌入式DVR、摄像机等几个关键的变化契机,是全球第一家把H.264编码算法引进了监控领域的公司。此后,借助模拟技术逐步被数字技术取代,以及高清、智能技术发展之机,公司抢在第一时间推出高清数字设备。2011年,率先推出全线高清产品,2014年,发布4K产品。海康通过把握这些市场契机一举成为行业应用的引导者。目前,海康威视海外销售占总体营收规模近1/3,DVR产品连续4年保持全球市场占有率第一位。
升级之道:在一个新兴行业中,做到中国第一,就是全球第一。中国的市场规模优势,极大的加速了新兴行业的成长速度,只要做到中国领先,就意味着你可以碾压世界上的所有竞争对手。
9,化工业。
万华化学。2012-2014年利润23亿元、28亿元、上半年14亿元。
2014年表现:
万华是国内唯一一家掌握了异氰酸酯MDI技术的企业(世界上共有六家企业掌握这项技术),并且实现了全产业链一体化的MDI生产。目前,万华的收入与毛利约80%都来自于MDI。2001年万华上市时,MDI产量仅有1.5万吨。之后其技术不断进步,产能持续扩张,2007年,由于宁波万华20万吨MDI一次性试车成功,被授予国家科学技术进步一等奖。2014年底,公司取得全球MDI最大寡头地位,开始发力综合性化学领域:在建烟台八角工业园、宁波、珠海和成都四个基地,布局MDI一体化、环氧丙烷及丙烯酸酯一体化、水性涂料和特种化学品三大产业,向世界级综合性化工巨头成长。
升级之道:垂直一体化,垄断某个细分行业的上下游产业链,获得超额利润。在传统的化工业,由于技术成熟,竞争激烈,普遍处于价格战状态,而万华已经走出了这个泥淖。
10,电气设备行业。
上海电气。2012-2014年利润27亿元、24亿元、前三季20亿元。
2014年表现:上海电气作为全球最大的火力发电设备供应商,其核电产品也在国内市场占有率第一;最近自主开发成功的“二次再热”技术,有望再次刷新全球效率最高煤电厂纪录;根据在手订单,明年风电业务将向百亿元规模发展。上海电气在太阳能热发电工程、分布式能源等领域也在大力拓展,去年研发费用接近40亿元。
升级之道:引进,吸收,出口。在能源设备领域,上海电气正在试图打造中国版西门子的地位。
11,平板液晶行业。
京东方。2012-2014年利润2.5亿元、23亿元、上半年10亿元。
2014年表现:累计直接融资超过700亿元,不断建线扩张,意欲重构全球显示产业的版图,目前京东方毛利率、申请专利数以及智能手机和平板电脑等高性能显示屏市占率均排名全球第一,逐渐瓦解了三星LG对该行业的垄断优势。
升级之道:国家信用背书,全力金融支持。在一个战略性资金密集型行业,得到国家的支持,几乎就意味着立于了不败之地,没有哪个竞争对手能够抗得住连年不断的价格战和亏损。一旦对手都败下阵来,自然是剩者为王。
12,日化行业。
云南白药。2012-2014年利润15亿元、23亿元、前三季度19亿元。
2014年表现:白药牙膏在外资盘踞的中高端牙膏市场闯出一片天地,行业份额前三。收购清逸堂,进军卫生巾领域。
升级之道:传统资源,老树发新芽。在日化、食品行业,一些老品牌通过对资源的重新开发,准确定位,迎来了事业的又一春,比如王老吉、上海家化的佰草集,都是如此。由于有历史的积淀,在品牌的塑造上可以站在一个更高的起点,突破了外资品牌的心理优势。
13,海工设备行业。
中集集团。2012-2014年利润19亿元、21亿元、前三季度16亿元。
2014年表现:近几年来,从集装箱行业第一,到海洋钻井平台行业第一,到LNG专用车辆、机场设备、消防车,一步一个脚印,不断扩大业务范围。今年最大的突破,就是海工设备。2008年的时候,中集收购了负债累累的烟台来福士,此后进一步收购瑞典的海工设计公司bassoe technology,通过资源的整合,连续7年累计亏损30亿元的坚持之后,终于迎来了2014年的盈利。目前半潜式钻井平台手持订单30亿美元,全球市场占有率20%左右。
升级之道:资源整合,步步为营,成为每一个子行业的全球第一。中集的目标是成为中国的“联合技术”。
14,玻璃行业。
福耀玻璃。2012-2014年利润15亿元、19亿元、22亿元。
2014年表现:全球第二的汽车玻璃供应商,垄断国产车玻璃70%份额,宾利、路虎等高档车同样在用。同时还是高铁玻璃供应商,在防弹玻璃市场占有40%份额。福耀1991年开始成为一汽解放卡车的供应商,1994年成为捷达的供应商,之后逐步承包了大众车的玻璃供货,2006年成为大众的全球A级供应商,2014在美国投资设厂,成为全球化的典范。
升级之道:在跨国公司产业链里一步步打怪升级,依靠质量、成本、专注,成为行业龙头。这是中国汽车产业链中成长起来的第一家顶级跨国巨头。
15,客车行业。
宇通客车。2012-2014年利润15亿元、18亿元、前三季度11亿元。
2014年表现:全球最大客车企业,市场占有率约10%,在拉美的出口额有10亿美元。7月份与委内瑞拉签订了1500辆客车订单。拥有6000平米的客车实验中心,在客车电动化的发展上领先同行。
升级之道:客车的技术含量在汽车行业中应该是最低的,也是第一个被中国企业突破天花板的汽车子行业。只要是追求性价比,并且品牌因素不太被关注的产品,很快都会成为中国企业的囊中之物。
16,电子设备行业。
歌尔声学。2012-2014年利润9亿元、13亿元、17亿元。
欧菲光。2012-2014年利润3亿元、5亿元、7亿元。
2014年表现:一个是全球最大的手机电声零部件企业,一个是全球最大的手机触摸屏零部件企业。近年随着智能手机产业链向中国的转移,获得了令人妒忌的成功。歌尔声学正在向汽车音响、MEMS传感器方向发展,欧菲光则向手机摄像头、指纹识别等领域扩张。与之形成对比的是,曾经的触摸屏龙头、苹果供应商台湾胜华最终败下阵来,宣布破产。
升级之道:把握机遇,快速反应,替换海外的电子设备供应链。电子工业的更新换代速度非常快,每一次换代,就意味着新技术的诞生,旧技术的淘汰,给予了新人无限的进入机会。电子工业也非常讲究产业链的配合,随着智能手机产业的转移,相当数量的本土电子零部件企业也将会成长起来。
17,高分子材料行业
康得新。2012-2014年利润4亿元、7亿元、11亿元。
2014年表现:由预涂膜起家,经过十来年发展,目前已经成为高分子膜行业的巨头,国内手机电视领域的膜应用已经被他垄断了,发展的方向是汽车窗膜、碳纤维和石墨烯,这家企业拥有技术和规模结合的全产业链优势,切入一个相关领域,很快就能做到老大。
升级之道:在新兴行业中拥有技术优势,再结合中国的市场机会,基本上就无敌了。中国版的“3M”。
18,制药行业。
天士力制药。2012-2014年利润7亿元、11亿元、前三季度11亿元。
2014年表现:国内制药业龙头,主打产品复方丹参滴丸正在进行FDA III期临床试验,预计2016年年底试验结束,到时复方丹参滴丸将成为第一例获得美国FDA认证的复方中药。新品丹参多酚酸、重组尿激酶陆续推出。
升级之道:天士力从中药现代化起家,逐渐向生物制药发展,在心血管和糖尿病药领域的研发创新上有独特的竞争力。
LOL ... there's a Chinese ancient words:"巧妇难无米之炊", as a engineer i knew how domestic manufacturer works in China ... Chinese is really good at doing System Engine of circuit board/ mechanism/ assembly, but we r not good at core-tech like CPU & Chipset ... each year China imported ten billions of USD chipset from foreign high-tech companies like Intel / AMD / Nvidia / Atmel / National Semiconductor / Texas Instruments / STMicroelectronics / Freescale Semiconductor / Qualcomm / Samsung / MTK / NXP(Philips) etc ... u might don't know them, but their CPU/Chipset using in ur smartphone/computer/touchpad/LCD etc ... 60~70% benefits earned by those fvcking foreign high-tech companies, Chinese manufacturer only earn rest 30~40% money due to our engineers & workers designed PCB/ shell / produce-line assembly ... we did it during 30 years but still now doing it, WHY ? Coz our government spent too much money in investments of China Real Estate, waste too much energy in fvcking GDP data game.

Without holding core-tech like the West, we r just their slavers and our generations will be too. CCP don't know it, right now their real estate price is the 1st important thing. When Chinese still doing those fvcking low value-added works, China export business only controlled by foreign companies who has the core-tech, and most true benefits earned by foreigners ... but CCP only care the fvcking real estate, it's like the FOOL Japan did in 1990s.


After 15-year PEACE development, ASEAN nations will catch us ... if Chinese still doing these low value-added works and won't hold core-tech field in true high-tech like microelectronic industry. CCP's "Industrial Upgrading" is just a big JOKE !!!
 
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