China’s Economy Overtaking the U.S. Will Be Harder Than It Looks

[KurtisBrian]

Don’t count the US out. It is more robust then any other country, and based on demographics and its technological advantage it has a stable future. It is just going through a rough patch, but don’t under estimate her.

China may outpace the US nominally for a generation, but as demographics and debts catch up with China, similar to Japan at the end of the 80s, the US will gain back her lead.

I don't underestimate anyone, that includes all of you. Almost all of you are stronger, faster and more capable than me. Remember, I said I don't think the United States will continue to exist as a nation. I didn't say destroy Americans or what they believe in, did I? At least I don't think I did.
Change, is something that happens. There were many Kingdoms of Ancient Egypt, Roman Republics and Empires..... Maybe I am wrong but it seems like a probable path for Americans and everybody else. Change happens more often than collapse so I just took a historical guess of what might happen.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

The US has a far more vibrant future ahead of it than China. It has the money, military, science and technological prowess, institutions, and cultural power to dominate the future.

Had. Now you will get to watch China take away everything you thought was yours. You'll watch it take your future from you. Enjoy, "poobah."

China’s future is literally death and old age. Enjoy Poobah

Do you think that there's some Cinderella-like magic spell that when the clock strikes twelve everyone in China is going to suddenly age to 102 and drop dead? Have you become that delusional? China's future is everything you think is yours and beyond.

Do you think America found the fountain of youth? You might want to tell them that:

https://www.usnews.com/news/healthiest-communities/articles/2020-05-20/us-births-continue-to-fall-fertility-rate-hits-record-low

Let me tell you a little secret about China that I'm surprised you haven't figured out given you hate it so much: China doesn't have a massive pile of obligations to retirees like the US social security system. A lot of Chinese elderly lived poor and are going to die poor. Sad but true. Yet despite that, China's population will remain multiple times larger than America's and its wealth will grow without limit.

For my part, I will certainly enjoy watching the US get flushed down the drain as China rises ever higher. The future belongs to China and I will enjoy watching your kind rail and scream and whine against the inevitable. Rage, rage against the dying of the light.

 

[FuturePAF]

I don't underestimate anyone, that includes all of you. Almost all of you are stronger, faster and more capable than me. Remember, I said I don't think the United States will continue to exist as a nation. I didn't say destroy Americans or what they believe in, did I? At least I don't think I did.
Change, is something that happens. There were many Kingdoms of Ancient Egypt, Roman Republics and Empires..... Maybe I am wrong but it seems like a probable path for Americans and everybody else. Change happens more often than collapse so I just took a historical guess of what might happen.

US culture changes as it assimilates new peoples. Yes, it will not be the same America it is today, but if it can reconcile to accept the newcomers it will endure, at least for the foreseeable future.

As long as the US can grow (economically) out of this crisis and raise the standard of living of the majority, especially the whites, it will placate most of the disenchanted people.

The US is a nation, but a Federal republic, with each state having somewhat different state laws to reflect the different local cultures. Even cities have different local laws to accommodate local mores. This is one reason the nation will survive.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

The America boosters here should stop moving the goalposts. We've gone from "China won't catch up to America even by 2050" like that moron Fareed Zakaria wrote to "Yes, China will be bigger nominally (and twice as big by PPP) before 2030, but the US will regain the lead". It's like Trump said to Jeb!
"You started off over here, Jeb. You're moving over further and further, pretty soon you'll be off the end."

Stop fantasizing, stop moving the goalposts, stop the delusions, stop the copium.

The US is just a normal country, and one more brittle than most. It's not exceptional, it's not special, it was just lucky - and it's luck's run out.

 

[redtom]

Can the United States continue for another 10 years?This is a very interesting question to observe.

 

[FuturePAF]

There are a lot of variables though, for the long term health of both countries. China may very well reverse its demographic decline with subsidies for families, reorienting its society to the needs of the young, it’s still not too late, but will require a dramatic shift in convincing the young people.

In the US, the divisive forces may linger, and re-emerge stronger then ever if their legitimate socio-economic grievances are not addressed. The window to address this issue will be narrow, because in approx. 20 years, whites won’t be the majority and the feeling of losing majority power will be a major shift in the culture.

The thing going for the US is that it’s a better place to live then most countries most of the immigrants come from. The standard of living and opportunities are still there, as long as rule of law is respected by the vast majority. The fear is, if the US doesn’t find a way to balance personal and economic freedoms and order, it will lose many of the rich to offshore tax havens or other countries. The wealth inequality also undermines the strength of the consumer economy, which makes up 70% of the overall economy, and also employs a large percentage of people in the services sector.

The next 20-30 years will be crucial to the long term prospects of both countries and the global order.

 

[bshifter]

China isn't Japan. When China overtakes the US, it will pull away. But the US will still remain a superpower.

Being a vassal state Japan had no choice but to agree to the Plaza Accord. From that moment on Japan could kiss its a.s goodbye in topping over US. It never fully recovered from it and the aging population plus high suicide rate ain't improving the situation either. To say China is standing or going to stand on the 80's Japan shoes is a misrepresentation of reality. For thousands of years China has been the biggest economy, it will continue this tradition after the US entering our side view mirror and eventually fading away in the back of the horizon.

 

[FuturePAF]

Being a vassal state Japan had no choice but to agree to the Plaza Accord. From that moment on Japan could kiss its a.s goodbye in topping over US. It never fully recovered from it and the aging population plus high suicide rate ain't improving the situation either. To say China is standing or going to stand on the 80's Japan shoes is a misrepresentation of reality. For thousands of years China has been the biggest economy, it will continue this tradition after the US entering our side view mirror and eventually fading away in the back of the horizon.

The debt and demographics of Japan in the late 80s mirrors China today, but you are right, China won’t compromise its economic independence to America. In that regard and technology acquisition, it is more akin to America in the 1870s, overtaking European countries, namely Britain as the rising economic juggernaut.

If the Chinese economy allows the Chinese currency to be the reserve currency of the world, and China can reverse its demographic decline, it will grow considerably faster then the US. It truly is a Thucydides trap.

Although, China will need to reset the global order to serve its needs. Europe is just trying to play both the US and China to maintain their standard of living, but may side with the US on the basis of their common culture.

what does China plan to do to reshape the global order in its long term favor?

 

[tower9]

Being a vassal state Japan had no choice but to agree to the Plaza Accord. From that moment on Japan could kiss its a.s goodbye in topping over US. It never fully recovered from it and the aging population plus high suicide rate ain't improving the situation either. To say China is standing or going to stand on the 80's Japan shoes is a misrepresentation of reality. For thousands of years China has been the biggest economy, it will continue this tradition after the US entering our side view mirror and eventually fading away in the back of the horizon.

Yeah. China is no Japan. The comparison with 90s Japan is something only an ignoramus would make.

China's growth will one day slow. But only after it becomes 2.5 or 3x the size of the US economy.

 

[Feng Leng]

you need to be hungry to be successful. you have to be hungier to be stay at the top.

Global Hunger Index 2020: India ranks 94 out of 107 countries, under ‘serious’ category

Out of the total 107 countries, only 13 countries fare worse than India including countries like Rwanda (97), Nigeria (98), Afghanistan (99), Liberia (102), Mozambique (103), Chad (107) among others.

indianexpress.com

There is only one shupa powa!

 

[tower9]

The debt and demographics of Japan in the late 80s mirrors China today, but you are right, China won’t compromise its economic independence to America. In that regard and technology acquisition, it is more akin to America in the 1870s, overtaking European countries, namely Britain as the rising economic juggernaut.

If the Chinese economy allows the Chinese currency to be the reserve currency of the world, and China can reverse its demographic decline, it will grow considerably faster then the US. It truly is a Thucydides trap.

Although, China will need to reset the global order to serve its needs. Europe is just trying to play both the US and China to maintain their standard of living, but may side with the US on the basis of their common culture.

what does China plan to do to reshape the global order in its long term favor?

China is not Japan. Still has plenty of room to grow. China has 1.4 billion people.

 

[FuturePAF]

China is not Japan. Still has plenty of room to grow. China has 1.4 billion people.

In some aspects it’s similar (not the same) in others it is much more robust and different. Yes, it has room to grow, especially if it continues to work with the developing world to build markets for its goods, but it will have to concentrate on its demographic problem if it wants to prevent the average age of the population rising too quickly, lowering average productivity.

 

[tower9]

In some aspects it’s similar (not the same) in others it is much more robust and different. Yes, it has room to grow, especially if it continues to work with the developing world to build markets for its goods, but it will have to concentrate on its demographic problem if it wants to prevent the average age of the population rising too quickly, lowering average productivity.

It will face a demographic problem. But it will also end up being much larger economically than the US.

 

[FuturePAF]

It will face a demographic problem. But it will also end up being much larger economically than the US.

Its entirely possible you are right. As Ray Dalio said, with 4 times the people, China reach twice the GDP of the US with only half the GDP per capita. China will have to shift to a consumer economy to make that happen though, which is where demographics and the average age of the population come in.

The Biden/Harris years, coming out of this Pandemic will be make or break for the US.

 

[tower9]

Its entirely possible you are right. As Ray Dalio said, with 4 times the people, China reach twice the GDP of the US with only half the GDP per capita. China will have to shift to a consumer economy to make that happen though, which is where demographics and the average age of the population come in.

The Biden/Harris years, coming out of this Pandemic will be make or break for the US.

I don't think China will match America's per capita income any time soon, but it's inevitable it will surpass the US economically in size and influence. Perhaps about 2-3X before it faces the consequences of its huge demographic crisis.